The Evolution of Michigan's Three-Point Defense Comment Count

Matt Way

[Ed-Ace: It's my pleasure to welcome Matt Way as a basketball contributor. Matt also contributes to bballbreakdown.com and his work has shown up in several corners of the basketball internets. As you'd expect, he'll be bringing an analytical bent with film breakdowns to match. We're very excited to have him on board, and you can follow him on Twitter @waymatth.]

Nine seasons into the John Beilein era, Michigan basketball still lacked a defensive identity. Beilein’s defenses had never finished in the top 35 nationally and they routinely failed spectacularly against good offenses. Opponents replicated the success that Michigan’s offense did in creating open looks from behind the arc.

Enter Billy Donlon.

As the primary defensive assistant, Donlon transformed a system focused primarily on not fouling into a more aggressive scheme which became among the best in the country at limiting three point attempts. His replacement, Luke Yaklich, improved on the foundation Donlon laid, resulting in Michigan fielding the third-best defense in the nation by year’s end.

Michigan Basketball Three-Point Defense Rankings    
Season Opp. 3PAr Opp. 3PT%
2014-15 217 178
2015-16 210 178
2016-17 8 314
2017-18 7 58
Per Sports-Reference.com    

Under Donlon and Yaklich, Michigan’s defense has become a top ten unit in terms of suppressing attempts from behind the arc. 

Research suggests that three-point defense at both the college and NBA levels is largely about preventing attempts. Certainly teams can control the quality of shots by closely contesting them, but once the ball is released, a defense has no impact over whether it ultimately goes in. Contesting shooters is most impactful in its deterrence of the shot itself.

The variance in three-point defense is evident in Michigan’s opponents’ recent shooting percentages. Despite suppressing attempts in 2016-17, they were at the bottom of the barrel in terms of shooting percentage. Ranking similarly this past year while running a similar scheme, opponents shot significantly worse. Some of this likely relates to the quality of contests, but a lot of it is due to bad luck.

Yaklich’s iteration was better than its predecessors in one important area: defending screens. Where teams in the past took more casual routes chasing off-the-ball, last year’s team was aggressive in both fighting through picks and switching them.

[Hit THE JUMP for a deep dive into stats and video.]

Although they continued the trend of not gambling for steals, Michigan has gradually become better at forcing turnovers the past two seasons:

Michigan Basketball Turnover Defense Rankings    
Season Opp. TOV% STL%
2014-15 155 343
2015-16 147 350
2016-17 121 343
2017-18 104 347
Per Sports-Reference.com    

Battling past screens is one of the reasons for the improved turnover rate.

Rather than taking longer routes around screen-setters, Yaklich’s defense pursued with a purpose and forced opponents to re-adjust their positioning. As a result, they forced a larger number of moving screen whistles.

The flip side is that the more aggressive approach led to significantly more fouls being called on Michigan:

Michigan Basketball Fouling Rate Ranking  
Season Fouls Per Possession
2014-15 9
2015-16 13
2016-17 25
2017-18 70
Per teamrankings.com  

Causing more whistles is far preferable to the former style of allowing shooters to wander unimpeded. Non-shooting fouls aren’t the end of the world and pressing officials to make decisions on potentially illegal screens is often worth the risk of foul trouble.

Even when the defense wasn’t forcing whistles one way or the other, their technique coming off screens was far improved this year.

Watch as MAAR sticks closely to Carsen Edwards outside shoulder to prevent a pull-up three in the Big Ten Tournament Final:

In the past, Michigan hedged the vast majority of these type of screens, which if not executed properly, would cause the rest of the team to scramble and yield cutting lanes and/or open shooters. Chasing over screens with sound technique allows everyone else to stay home and simplifies help defense, like with MAAR simply handing off Edwards to Wagner for a strong contest at the rim.

Perhaps the most impactful change in scheme, though, came on screens that occurred further away from the point of attack.

Previously, defenders would routinely called upon to beat multiple screens on their own, as MAAR was asked to do here while chasing Bryn Forbes:

When execution isn’t perfect, open threes result.

In today’s game, where motion offense and multiple off-ball screens are commonplace, communication and switching are critical components to a successful defense. Michigan’s defense, under Yaklich, has embraced those concepts to great success.

The new defensive approach was particularly evident against Purdue this past season. Facing tons of off-ball action and shooters all over the floor, a more traditional approach against the Boilermakers would have proved futile.

Purdue’s consistent movement and precision shooting led them to second-best offense (per KenPom) in the country.  Also the second-best three-point shooting team in the land, they predictably launched 40 percent of their shots from behind the long line.

Switching aggressively and adeptly against the Boilermakers, Michigan suppressed Purdue’s deep attempts to a collective 35.8 percent of their total shots in three games, a significant reason that Michigan was a couple dubious calls away from stealing the season series.

The off-ball switching was immediately evident in the Big Ten Tournament Championship game when Dakota Mathias took off from the left side of the perimeter in an attempt to free himself on the other side of the arc. In stark contrast to MAAR chasing Forbes around the court several years ago, Charles Matthews immediately recognized and called out the early screen which allowed Isaiah Livers to be in a better position to switch and chase Mathias, preventing an open look from three:

At the start of the second half, Purdue again tried to get Mathias open with multiple screens and Michigan again recognized and switched properly. Rather than forcing Zavier Simpson to beat two screens, MAAR switched and exhibited excellent technique in fighting over an Isaac Haas screen to prevent an open deep look. Haas ended up scoring in the post, but surrendering a shot Purdue can get on nearly any possession is far preferable to Mathis attempting a clean three:

In Ann Arbor, Livers recognized his counterpart setting a screen, immediately switched, and correctly went over the second pick to yet again prevent a double screen resulting in a Mathias three. Mathias ended up making a tough layup, but again the process to force a lower expected value shot was sound in this instance:

When Carsen Edwards ran a similar play later in the game, Livers again recognized the first screen, got low to get under the second one, and emerged in time to contest any three-point attempt. Purdue again reverted to dumping the ball down to Haas in what could have resulted in a turnover if not for a tough call:

In a crucial late-game possession, Michigan played extremely aggressive defense, switching numerous times to prevent a clean look anywhere along the perimeter. This ends in an open three, but it came out of the hands of Matt Haarms, who made only one of his seven attempts during the season. Forcing a bad shooter to launch late in the shot clock is the type of defense that has a real impact on suppressing three-point shooting percentage:

The communication and attention to detail that Michigan displayed against Purdue was a defensive constant throughout the year. It’s incumbent on guards and wings. The skill that Matthews, Livers, and Simpson showed in recognizing, calling out, and executing switches was critical to the dramatic improvements this past year.

With that trio returning in the fall, expect much of the same from Team 103.

Comments

TrueBlue2003

June 27th, 2018 at 4:28 PM ^

Yes, the tradeoff was a contested 2 pointer (worth about 1.25 pts for Haas) vs a three point attempt for Mathias which was worth about 1.4 pts.

When you reduce the value of non-TO possessions for the opponent by 0.15 pts, that's how you go from the 69th best defense to the third best in a season.

Beilein 4 Life

June 27th, 2018 at 2:36 PM ^

Getting Z, Matthews, and Livers back is amazing, but substituting Teske for Wagner, in my opinion, will put our defense in an even better position than last year. Matt, welcome to the blog and quick question-what are your thoughts on Davis’s defense? Last year, we got worse on the offensive side but better on the defensive side when Teske subbed in. Have you seen enough of Davis to have a prediction on what will happen when he’s in next year?

CLord

June 27th, 2018 at 2:55 PM ^

Gotta toss some green at Yaklich and lock him down.  With this D and some better 3 pt shooting a Natty is a very real possibility, unless another 6th man white guy decides to make the NC game against Michigan his 3 pt break out bomb party as has been the case now twice in a row.

The Process

June 27th, 2018 at 2:55 PM ^

Welcome to the team Matt.  Great to see some film break down of the great off-ball defensive stuff Yaklich has this team doing.   Hopefully whomever comes this year at the 2 (Poole?) can pick up the screen switch calls to keep the D strong.

jsquigg

June 27th, 2018 at 3:22 PM ^

Without the switch in defensive philosophy, this last year would have been mediocre at best.  I know pre-Donlon Beilein may have started more efficient offensive players instead of Z, but their ceiling would have been way lower without defensive emphasis.

TrueBlue2003

June 27th, 2018 at 4:35 PM ^

Excellent write up.

I think you meant that "while running a similar scheme, opponents shot significantly worse."

In Donlon's year, the team allowed a somewhat unlucky 37.8% while last year they allowed 33.2% (those are kenpom numbers that don't count Chaminade) which was a little on the lucky side, probably.

One thing I love about this write-up is how it illustrates how good Livers was defensively for reasons that don't show up in box score.  This is why M's ppp allowed were so low with him on the floor. 

Switch onto Dakota Mathias and stay close enough with him to disallow a three while either preventing dribble drive entirely or forcing a really tough runner? Check.

Switch onto Carsen Edwards, run around a screen and get there to prevent an open three AND force a pass?  Check.

The fact that he can guard any position and stay with smaller guys on the drive and not get abused down low was (and will be) huge for the team.

And just brilliant coaching by Yaklich.

outsidethebox

June 29th, 2018 at 7:19 AM ^

It's such a copy-cat world. And here, the infatuation with playing man is simply crazy. With the value of and the predominance of the three point shot, why the 1-3-1 zone has not become the base defense makes no sense. Michigan has the perfect roster for employing this zone. Quit wasting all that energy chasing shooters all over the floor...let them expend the energy running to you!!!

outsidethebox

June 30th, 2018 at 7:02 AM ^

Absolutely not sarcasm. The 1-3-1 is a dynamic defense with excellent on ball pressure, terrific gap control, great trapping potential as well as offering personnel flexibility. It beats the hell out of the 2-3. With the defensive prowess of Matthews and Livers to play the (critical) baseline "1" Michigan would do very well here. Ignorance is not bliss.

MGoBender

July 1st, 2018 at 11:12 AM ^

Matt, nice stuff, but Purdue is pretty atypical.  Not many teams are structured like they are.  The first clip you showed, a double ball screen... Wagner was able to lay way, way off of Haas as a shooting threat which allowed MAAR to chase the screen knowing that he had help in the lane.  Not usually going to be the case against teams where screen and pop is a threat.

The switching you've identified is certainly the big difference; it's something that's tough for some players to pick up, depending on how you decide you are going to switch.  Yaklich has put in a system that's far better than we've had in the past.