[Isaiah Hole]

2019 Recruiting: Daxton Hill Comment Count

Brian April 30th, 2019 at 2:15 PM

Previously: Last year's profiles. S Quinten Johnson.

 
Tulsa, OK – 6'1", 190
 

8666121
[247]

24/7 5*, #23 overall
#2 S, #1 OK
Rivals 5*, #24 overall
#1 S, #1 OK
ESPN 5*, #13 overall
#1 S, #1 OK
Composite 5*, #14 overall
#1 S, #1 OK
Other Suitors Bama, OU, Okie State, OSU
YMRMFSPA Jabrill Peppers, but fast!
Previously On MGoBlog Hello post from yours truly.
Notes Twitter. Opening. Army Game.

Film

Junior:

 

We were talking about the safeties in our post-spring-game WTKA roundtable, and when Daxton Hill came up Ira played the single most stunning bit of football coach talkin' I've ever heard. In it, Harbaugh said flat-out that a freshman who's not even on campus yet is going to have to play a lot at safety, a position where the mental errors freshmen inevitably make is a touchdown on your face. Webb's post-spring take:

Being frank, Dax is going to have to start. I won’t be surprised if he is the day-one starter, and I would be surprised if he is NOT the starter by the midway point of the season.

If that sounds nerve-wracking, well, let me tell you about Daxton Hill decommitting to Alabama the week before Signing Day. Yikes.

[After THE JUMP: shiny numbers, effusive praise]

Hill is the top safety prospect in the country per the composite, and step one towards that is being a ridiculous athlete. The previous post in this series noted Quentin Johnson's 127 was good for 8th in the country; Hill is on another planet from even that:

dax

That is an electronically timed 4.3 flat 40, yessir, along with the best vert amongst safeties nationally; he would later improve that shuttle time to a 4.13, per ESPN. This is on another level from Donovan Peoples-Jones. It's on another level from Jabrill Peppers, who put up a 4.46 40 and 36 inch vert at the NFL combine. To be fair, Peppers did that about 25 pounds heavier than Dax was at his Opening regional. Even so, as soon as Dax Hill walks on campus he will take his place amongst the most absurdly athletic persons to ever don the Maize and Blue.

The test scores translate to the field. Virtually every Hill evaluation notes his absurd range and ability to close:

  • Josh Helmholdt, Rivals: "Great safeties have range, are comfortable and effective playing in space and know how to level a big hit. All of those characteristics can be found in Hill's game."
  • Barton Simmons, 247: "One of the most freakish athletes in the class of 2019 … more than just an athlete though, he showed a ton of range in coverage and was smooth in his backpedal."
  • Josh McCuiston, Rivals: "…prodigious athleticism. … when you watch him up close and see how he closes on ball carriers or covers man-to-man on elite receivers you realize he just isn’t your average safety … very, very savvy guy. You talk to him or talk to his coaches and they talk about how quickly he processes information."
  • Greg Biggins, 247: "with his ability to run and cover, he looks like a college player right now. He has a freakish combination of size and athleticism."
  • ESPN: "Long, explosive athlete …Quick to read and react and pursues fast without much wasted motion. Very good coverage skills; adept at both man and zone. Shows good pop on contact as a tackler. Still developing size and strength which makes for a high ceiling. …ability to close and make plays with athleticism and ball skills in the passing game is perfect for [Don Brown's defense]."
  • Chris Hummer, 247: "elite athlete … compact and muscular frame. He’s twitchy with elite range and tackles well."
  • Brad Calip, head coach: "A guy will beat him on a route, then when the ball is in flight he goes to another gear to go get the ball. (Week one) … he had like 26 tackles. His closing speed when they run a toss sweep is unbelievable. And he will lay the wood on you."

In addition to the brief snippets summarized above there were a couple meatier reports from 24/7 that shed some light on the most important thing about Hill in a Don Brown defense: man-to-man coverage on slots. He promises to be a man who can do both. Gabe Brooks reported back from one of Hill's high school games, in which he limited a 2020 three-star to one catch:

Booker T. Washington repeatedly put Hill in man press situations, where Hill excelled. He showed terrific foot quickness and lateral mobility. He also used his hands well and showed a willingness to play physical that translated in re-routing Bland on multiple plays. Hill is quite fluid for a player projected to safety and his coverage instincts and skills suggest he could move around the secondary in college.

…very twitchy and he showed a top-end gear that nobody else on the field matched.

And Texas's 247 site scouted him off film in a rundown of their safety targets:

…fantastic athlete with elite burst and speed …ability to play deep at safety and cover receivers in the slot. …strong explosion in and out of his breaks. …good coverage technique and smooth transitional ability. He comes downhill and hits like a sledgehammer and shows strong change of direction skills. He fights through blocks well at the line of scrimmage to disrupt screens and plays to the boundary.

Areas for improvement: …can play with an over-aggressive tempo … should also work on being more consistent with his tackling technique …inconsistent hands.

Both of these reports mention Hill's flexibility, with the Texas report projecting him anywhere from free safety to viper (which they called box safety, FWIW). Michigan isn't going to play games with his spot since they're deep at viper and have pretty interchangeable safeties—which they must if they're going to continue spinning down the free safety on jet motion. Hill will be the primary option over the slot receiver and Michigan will hope they can line him up without outside leverage. Michigan's linebacker rush was muted last season because Michigan took away slot fades with outside leverage on the slot, which led to those slants, which led to a lot of linebackers named Devin Bush buzzing those slants instead of screaming across the line of scrimmage with an axe in his hand.

Having a legit 6'1" slot cover guy who runs a 4.3 will hopefully allow Michigan to get after QBs on standard downs like they did two years ago without suffering the chunk plays they left open. Back to McCuistion, who tells a story about watching Hill go up against an unnamed high-profile WR at the Opening regional:

"…Hill stuck to his inside hip and on a short curl, broke on the ball and actually got his hand in to deflect it. It seems so simple but for a guy his size, a safety, to make that play, it was jaw dropping."

Other scouting notes in that vein include a "great day in coverage against [the Dallas regional's] best wide receiver prospects" as an underclassman; "outstanding in drills" with "natural cover ability" and "elite twitch" the next year; 247's overall summary notes he "excels in coverage" and his "change of direction quickness is off the charts."

If anyone can do it, it's Hill.

So what's the catch? There doesn't appear to be one. The minor negatives mentioned in the 247 Texas site's scouting report are almost literally the only Areas For Improvement mentioned across the internet. Even the straight-shooting Touch The Banner can't come up with much:

Hill has good size and great makeup speed. He transitions quickly out of his backpedal. He’s a solid tackler and a hard hitter. He’s a ball hawk. He has everything you would want in a safety.

Things I dislike about Hill:

*crickets*

His coach did have… well, not really a criticism, but an avenue for improvement:

"He’s a very physical player and is extremely talented so I try to tell guys like him that it’s about understanding what offenses are trying to do. It’s one thing to be physically better than everyone else and run fast, jump high and be good in the weight room. The next level is understanding how receivers line up and what that means. Learning the ins and outs of what is going on in different situations."

Hill hasn't yet displayed creepy mind-reading traits. He's got a 3.9 GPA and draws praise for his football IQ, but the thing separating him from really good college player and all-time legend may be that ineffable ability to process information faster than anyone else.

This is a guy whose coach has a guy on the Rams right now but says "he's not even close to Mr. Hill." This is a guy whose NFL comparison from ESPN is Keanu Neal, a first round pick and pro-bowler, and ESPN provides a caveat that Hill's size and speed combo "may be a notch above" Neal. This is not a guy at all. This is a dude.

Etc.: There is zilch here from the used-to-be-Army game, but that doesn't reflect on Hill. Apparently this year's edition was a bit of a joke for his team:

The West continues to practice in a very low key fashion. In fact, some in attendance joked that no one from the West squad has even broken a sweat since they've been here. That's a tad facetious but there really hasn't been much for Hill to do. He's been running around during the 7-on-7 portions of practice but hasn't really been challenged and there have been no 1-on-1 competitions for the West team.

The East (and Chris Hinton) took things more seriously and ended up hammering the West 48-14.

Why Jabrill Peppers, but fast(!)? Hill's taller and a bit lighter than Peppers but there's no one in the building athletically unless we go all the way back to Tripp Welbourne, and your author doesn't remember Tripp Welbourne. Since Welbourne's unfortunate injury the only Michigan safety within a mile of a first round pick was Peppers. Hill projects as a better version of early Peppers, who was a rover safety with some slot coverage issues and sometimes a boundary corner.

The other safety who you might bring up is Dymonte Thomas, who was super athletic but not in Hill's class; he was also less ready to go early. Other than that you're looking at guys like Jalen Ramsey: incredible athletes who can more or less play corner.

Guru Reliability: Very high. Hill was on the radar forever, played at a power program in Oklahoma, was healthy, and did all the camps.

Variance: Low. College sized already and would have had the best 40 and vert at this year's NFL combine. 3.9 GPA.

Ceiling: Vast. "Best Michigan safety ever" is on the table.

General Excitement Level: Vast. There are going to be some early hiccups but Hill's walking into a starting position he'll hold for three years before the NFL comes calling.

Projection: Starts immediately.

Comments

dragonchild

May 1st, 2019 at 6:20 AM ^

Hear, hear.  Peppers was injured in his first game, as well as his last.  Gary played most of his final year with a shoulder injury.

It seems whenever we recruit a truly elite athlete, he rolls a natural 1 and we get to enjoy half a season of the guy either on the sidelines or playing like a shadow of himself.

1201

April 30th, 2019 at 2:30 PM ^

We were talking about the safeties in our post-spring-game WTKA roundtable, and when Daxton Hill came up Ira played the single most stunning bit of football coach talkin' I've ever heard. In it, Harbaugh said flat-out that a freshman who's not even on campus yet is going to have to play a lot at safety, a position where the mental errors freshmen inevitably make is a touchdown on your face. 

I mean is anyone surprised by this? Just look at the safety commits the last few years and where they ranked coming out of high school. All those "high ceiling" 3 stars looking like, well, 3 stars. Hill and Morant will both start as freshman this year and next. 

Champeen

April 30th, 2019 at 2:42 PM ^

With the exception of Hill, DB recruiting has been very lackluster.  Its too bad Hill will only be able to play with Hill 1 year and Thomas 2 (maybe 1?) - because in 1 year, Hill will be responsible for covering 3 guys at once.

Our DB recruiting has not been exceptional of late.

1201

April 30th, 2019 at 2:49 PM ^

Hill, Morant, and Paige (assuming UM can land the latter two) will go a long way towards shoring up the safety position. I think Vincent Gray and Gemon Green will also turn out to be very good players. I'm not sold at all on Turner and Perry, and Seldon, while sticky, just measured in at 5-7 at a Rivals camp this weekend. It's a troubling trend that on paper corner recruiting has gotten worse every year under Zordich. Long, Hill, Thomas, and St Juste were all top 100 recruits or close to it. UM hasn't signed one at corner since. If you are going to play as much man coverage like Don Brown does and leave your corners on islands then that has to change, otherwise you're going to have a Watson/OSU redux against the elite teams on your schedule where they ruthlessly exploit an inferior athlete.

FatGuyTouchdown

May 1st, 2019 at 12:20 PM ^

Way too early to make any judgements on the 2018 class outside of anyone who leaves. The second fall camp is the one where players will make the biggest jump in terms of ability. Every second year player has been through at least one Spring camp, one fall camp, one season, and one offseason lifting, as well as summer workouts. If the 2018 class is absolutely buried across the board after camp this year, then yea raise the alarms. 

2017 had Ambry Thomas, and 2016 had Vert/Long/Khaleke/Metellus. There are some really quality DBs in this class too.

Fezzik

May 1st, 2019 at 11:31 AM ^

Have to give Metellus some love here. He was our best safety last year, better than our other starting safety who was ranked 500 players better than Josh out of HS. He will be a key piece to the D this year especially with a true frosh frequently lining up opposite of Metellus.

Dr. Sap

April 30th, 2019 at 9:36 PM ^

I feel that Tripp is one the greatest safeties Michigan has ever had - certainly right up there with the likes of Thom Darden, Randy Logan, Dave Brown, Don Dufek, Tony Jackson & Vada Murray. As a WR he was Cris-Carter-good. He was as smooth & athletic as they come. His movements were effortless - and he was big/tall. Returned punts, blocked kicks - he could do it all!

 More here: https://m.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLpyL5qz2h8xKVBA2d7U5J5hKw098eFhnm 

lhglrkwg

April 30th, 2019 at 2:34 PM ^

If Dax is gonna bust some plays, I hope he starts from day 1 rather than emerging mid-season because I'd sure rather see him perform some spectacular busts against the MTSU's and Rutgers of the world rather than in the 2nd half of the season where we see Penn State, Notre Dame, MSU and OSU all in 6 weeks. Get it out early and hopefully he's relatively settled in by mid-season

Naked Bootlegger

April 30th, 2019 at 2:34 PM ^

Any off-season malaise was just shed after reading this post.   What a great reminder of a potential generational talent who will don the winged helmet next fall.  

Now excuse me while I yell O LET DO IT repeatedly until security kicks me out of the office.

StirredNotShaken

April 30th, 2019 at 3:04 PM ^

The athletic freak comments eerily remind me of what we read about Rashan Gary a few years ago, e.g. putting up testing numbers that beat top performers at the NFL combine. I'm hopeful we see more production from Mr. Hill (and fewer injuries) during his years in Ann Arbor. 

FatGuyTouchdown

May 1st, 2019 at 12:29 PM ^

If I could lock in 2 first team all big ten selections for Hill right now I would. Everyone wants to pretend like Rashan Gary was some huge failure at Michigan, but that couldn't be further from the truth. Even in the scope of #1 prospects, he lives up well. Robert Nkemdiche had 16 TFL and 6 sacks in 3 years for Ole Miss. And he got paid a lot more than Rashan Gary got too. He had more TFL and sacks than Mario Edwards too. Sure, it would've been nice to see Jadeveon Clowney production out of him, but Clowney was an absolute freak of nature at the highest levels, and even he got called underwhelming after his Junior season. Gary was very good, now shut the fuck up

Mongo

April 30th, 2019 at 3:19 PM ^

If Hill can shut down the speed slots like a Pariss Campbell, we are in business. That just opens Don Brown's entire playbook of blitzes from the ILB and Viper. 

An elite cover safety makes the entire pass rush that much more effective.

Mgoeffoff

April 30th, 2019 at 3:22 PM ^

He reminds me Marlin Jackson.  Big enough to play safety, fast enough to play corner, could probably be an All American at both.

Mongo

April 30th, 2019 at 3:41 PM ^

Whatever early-on freshman starter mistakes he might make will be worth it ... we need to get him ready for that last Saturday in November.  

Go Blue !!!

outsidethebox

April 30th, 2019 at 4:25 PM ^

Love watching this kid's tape. He has some nit-picky technique stuff but the instincts and athleticism is other-worldly. Daxton is the definition of "potential"!

Wolverine 73

April 30th, 2019 at 4:42 PM ^

All those skills and a 3.9 GPA, which suggests that he will learn and process things quickly once he gets on campus.  Yes, he will surely be starting by the middle of the year.

AnthonyThomas

April 30th, 2019 at 5:00 PM ^

BTW, while Oklahoma public schools are woefully underfunded and thus often not very good, Booker T. Washington is an elite public high school. He didn't get a 3.9 there without putting forth real academic effort.

Blue Balls Afire

April 30th, 2019 at 5:25 PM ^

I hate to admit that the college decision of a teenager had such an effect on me, but Hill's flip back to Blue saved me from utter despondency with the football program.  It was the sliver of good news following the OSU debacle that saved my offseason from being a total Michigan football wreck.

GoBlue4life8719

May 1st, 2019 at 8:07 AM ^

Haven't had a safety like this in awhile if ever. I hope he can just be steady in his freshman year, make some big plays. Should be a ? in year 2 and 3. Go Blue!