Points per Game at Michigan
(Mods, if you think this should be a diary, please feel free to move it)
For those of you who have seen my diary series Iowatch!, we’re tracking how Iowa’s offense performs under Old Frenemy Cade McNamara. I had to cut the following piece from my Week 3 Iowatch! Diary, but I really want to acknowledge how difficult the road ahead is going to be for Iowa. So we’ll start this forum post where the diary intro had to leave off:
“Offensive” “Coordinator” “Brian” Ferentz has been tasked with scoring 325 points on the season, or an average of 25 points per game.
For reference, Iowa’s total scoring last year was 230 (!) total points for an average of 17.7 (!!) points per game. That INCLUDES the 46 (!!!) points contributed by the defense. To say their offense was putrid would be an understatement: they were 120th in the country on a Points Per Drive basis.
So Iowa needs to add 7+ points per game to their scoring. This is a MONUMENTAL goal that is being placed on Ferentz The Younger, who has duly turned to Old Frenemy Cade McNamara to helm his offense and “save” his job. (I will eat my hat if Brian Ferentz is actually fired.)
Context:
Cade McNamara has actually been in this position before! The PPG improvement from 2020 to 2021 at Michigan was +7.46 points.
If you’re like me, your next question is “wait, how often has a 7+ point turnaround happened at Michigan?” It’s a good question! Saying “2023 Iowa has to exceed 2022 Iowa like 2021 Michigan exceeded 2020 Michigan” is a powerful statement. This kind of improvement is a Big Deal.
Takeaways:
It took 40 years of back tracing, but I finally found a time that Michigan was as bad at scoring as Iowa was last year. 1984 (with none other than Jim Harbaugh as part time QB) saw us score 17.5 PPG, a whole 0.2 PPG worse than Iowa in 2022. Not even 2008 or 2014 were that bad. Michigan has occasionally been worse than Iowa WANTS to be this year…but not often.
Here’s the definitive list of 7+ point turnarounds since 1983:
Harbaugh Giveth, Harbaugh Taketh Away
You’ll notice that Jim Harbaugh has presided over 4 of Michigan's 7 largest PPG improvements (and QB’d one more!). But a couple of those turnarounds were over HIS OWN PRIOR MICHIGAN TEAM. Context: the ‘turnaround’ in 2016 is actually a huge point in his favor - it was a massive upward-trajectory improvement on a pretty darn good 2015…which was already right there with the best of the Carr and Moeller and Bo eras. 2016 could have been THE year.
But, uh… that 2017-to-2018 jump rankles. If you go back and read my diaries from a couple months ago, you’ll notice that over the course of the three diaries I get more and more bitter about the offense in 2017. I’m not kidding when I say that the PPG drop-off from 2016 to 2017 was, by far, the furthest a Michigan offense has dropped since AT LEAST 1985. Offenses just do not get that much worse in one year, like… ever (though by god both Bo and Hoke tried…):
And that abysmal 2017 offense was STILL ever-so-slightly better than Iowa is even ATTEMPTING to be this year!
“Offensive” “Coordinator” “Brian” Ferentz has his work cut out for him.
September 20th, 2023 at 10:22 AM ^
Typo: 2017 was, by far, the furthest a Michigan offense has dropped since AT LEAST 1983*
MATH ERROR: the 1986 ppg were calculated incorrectly. 1986 should be a +1.83 PPG improvement over 1985 (thank you maizenblu92)
September 20th, 2023 at 10:51 AM ^
Also Eddie McDoom and Kekoa Crawford were big disappointments on that team, that offense was as painful to watch as 2013 and 2014 Hoke.
September 20th, 2023 at 10:57 AM ^
As someone else pointed out below, the key was really QB play, or lack thereof.
Playcalling was also pretty abysmal: we had Chris f’ing Evans on our team, but we weren’t throwing to the RBs. We had Khalid f’ing Hill on our team, but we weren’t throwing to the fullbacks.
And it didn’t look like the coaches really tried anything different. Every week seemed like a rinse-and-repeat of the previous week’s struggles.
The one exception was Ohio State. My god that was a brilliant plan out of Harbaugh and company. I know we lost, but dude you can pick damn near any O’Korn incomplete pass in that game and say that if he had been able to hit a wide open receiver, we would have won.
September 20th, 2023 at 11:15 AM ^
The throw by O'Korn on the last drive 10 yards over the head of the Michigan receiver right to the OSU safety may be the worst throw I've ever seen.
September 20th, 2023 at 2:28 PM ^
also perhaps one of the deflating. not that i really thought we'd win, but i thought id get to ride that joy for a hot second longer.
But, if we play that game, there are some other brutal plays and throws that probably are on par.
September 20th, 2023 at 2:32 PM ^
That game is a win 7-8 times out of ten with even a mediocre QB performance. Talk about “the one that got away”
September 20th, 2023 at 5:19 PM ^
I had somehow forgotten about him. Dude was so bad, but also had kind of a bad attitude it seemed, so I didn't feel bad for him.
September 20th, 2023 at 10:54 AM ^
Not having a QB will do that. I still can't believe they were in that position, even if it was only Harbaughs 3rd year.
September 20th, 2023 at 1:08 PM ^
And not having experienced WRs. Hoke infamously didn't recruit any decent WRs other than Darboh and Chesson, who graduated after 2016. The 2015 class, which Harbaugh patched together at the last minute after he was hired, included Brian Cole (a massive pothead) and Grant Perry (a decent slot, but not a gamebreaker). The 2016 class included Kekoa Crawford, who was mediocre, and Eddie McDoom, who was a fun runner but not a receiving threat. The 2017 receiver class was awesome, of course, but freshman WRs suck.
So it was a combination of having the only decent QB (Speight) injured early in the season, and having no decent WRs.
September 20th, 2023 at 11:01 AM ^
That was maybe the best defense of the Harbaugh era with only one returning starter. Would've given up a lot fewer points if the offense gave them any help.
September 20th, 2023 at 5:57 PM ^
I don't think it was quite as good as 2016, but outside of PSU it kept us in every game.
September 20th, 2023 at 10:27 AM ^
Somebody asked in the diary, but does anyone have the actual language from Brian Ferentz's contract? Would love to see what it actually says, but haven't been able to find the language, just summaries...
September 20th, 2023 at 10:53 AM ^
Yeah, curious as well.
I keep hearing about this 25 ppg goal, but is it actually part of his contract, just something his dad came up with, etc?
Also, shouldn't it only count offensive points? Iowa's D is good for ~4 points a game, so shouldn't the offensive contribution be isolated?
September 20th, 2023 at 11:15 AM ^
It is in our hearts! And in my diaries
For Iowa’s purposes, all points count toward this goal
September 20th, 2023 at 11:23 AM ^
I linked to the contract below if you want to see. It requires "the team must average at least 25 ppg" (not specifically the offense) and at least 7 wins for his contract to automatically renew
September 20th, 2023 at 10:54 AM ^
I haven't seen it, but I heard from Shutdown Fullcast that the terms are that the Team scores that many points, so I fully expect special teams and defensive touchdowns to give Brian F a huge boost (*as always...and they'll still fall short)
September 20th, 2023 at 11:15 AM ^
I don't know the exact language, but I'm pretty sure the 25 ppg goal is just for Brian Ferentz's current contract to automatically renew. There's nothing stopping Iowa from re-signing him to a new contract regardless of how many points they score.
Personally, my bet is that Iowa scores <25 ppg but they go 10-3 or better, so Iowa says "we won a lot, good enough" and gives him a new similar contract. Or, more hilariously, he'll get a raise.
EDIT: Actually I found the language. The first sentence of this article has a link to a PDF which shows the exact wording of his amended contract: https://www.kcci.com/article/iowa-amends-brian-ferentzs-contract-hawkeyes-football/42780770
September 20th, 2023 at 1:24 PM ^
Automatically renews! Iowa taxpayers should riot.
September 20th, 2023 at 11:45 AM ^
I've seen it. If memory serves unless Iowa averages 25 points per game Ferentz is stripped of his duties as the OC and then summarily tossed into the lake of eternal fire to have his mortal soul tormented for all eternity.
It seemed harsh to me but hey, he signed it and there were fairly attractive bonus dollars associated if he makes it.
September 20th, 2023 at 1:09 PM ^
I would have negotiated that down to being stripped of my OC duties and being forced to park in the commuter lots, which in the average Midwest winter can create a scenario where one's soul is tormented for the length of a long, lonely trudge through the snow. That's just me though.
September 21st, 2023 at 12:10 PM ^
The lowest circle in Dante's Inferno was a lake of ice. Not unlike many a Midwest campus in January. Dante must have thought freezing for eternity was worse than burning, and after 22 straight Michigan winters I'm not going to disagree.
September 20th, 2023 at 10:27 AM ^
Cade is a fine QB average big ten starter, but he does not have near the weapons that he did at Michigan, namely a power running game.
September 20th, 2023 at 10:34 AM ^
When surrounded by an elite O-Line and offensive weapons at all the skill positions, a game-manager can win you a B1G Title.
When surrounded by a suspect O-Line, no WRs, and 1-2 skill position players, a game manager can win you ...well sadly probably the B1G West Title, but it ain't gonna be pretty.
Cade's stat this year are in the non-conference part of the scehdule are....something.
38 completions / 71 attempts (53.5%) for 417 yards (5.4 ypa) with 4TDs and 3 INTs
By comparison in '21 he completed 64% of his passes at 7.9 ypa and had 15 TD to 6 INTs for the full season
September 20th, 2023 at 11:36 AM ^
Yep, I feel like the reality of his skill set is likely sinking in right now.
He was high off making the playoff and winning the BigTen, and having another QB pass him probably seemed like a major slight in his mind. Now he's lost all his support, and will be lucky to win 8 games.
The ball don't lie.
September 20th, 2023 at 1:48 PM ^
Iowa's offense will still be ass but they might still win 8 games by accident because, well, B1G West
September 20th, 2023 at 3:51 PM ^
They do have an excellent defense (which gets next to no help from the O).
September 20th, 2023 at 12:18 PM ^
You're right, the running game isn't nearly as good, but neither are the receivers. Plus Cade's been injured, playing through some kind of quad soft tissue thing. He was never particularly mobile before and now he's a statue. Plus plus although the Iowa OL may be an improvement on the past two seasons it's still not great.
All in all he's in a VERY different situation than in 2021 at Michigan. They seem very unlikely to score 25 points per game given their B1G schedule and even if they win the west, which I now doubt, they will get killed in the B1G championship game (like in 2021).
Despite all of this I'll bet a $1 that Brian Ferentz remains on staff next season.
September 20th, 2023 at 1:28 PM ^
100% stays on staff, no matter what.
Even if he doesn't reach the 25 point threshold, his dad will keep him on in some capacity. Maybe as an analyst who gets paid the same as a coordinator.
This is the exact fear when your coach brings in their kid. We really lucked out with Jay Harbaugh.
September 20th, 2023 at 1:43 PM ^
Hey now, let’s not pretend that Jim Harbaugh WOULDN’T fire his own kid if he thought he could do better…
Jay Harbaugh has been a godsend. My guess is that the plan is for him to join the Ravens staff sooner than later. He will have experience developing and coaching pretty much every offensive position except OL…and he already has a win on his HC resumé. He’ll probably end up being more like John Harbaugh than Jim.
September 20th, 2023 at 8:38 PM ^
How is this scenario? They win the west with 25.1 ppg, then decline the big ten championship game and a bowl to preserve the contract!
September 20th, 2023 at 1:10 PM ^
You're right about the lack of weapons, but "average Big Ten starter" is a big leap up from what Iowa had at QB in 2022.
September 20th, 2023 at 2:28 PM ^
FWIW, "average Big Ten starter" is also a step up from what Cade has done so far this season.
September 20th, 2023 at 10:29 AM ^
Not surprisingly, those bad offensive years nearly all featured instability at QB due to injuries or just poor play. (1986 is a head-scratcher though.)
2017 was also an extremely young team in general. Hoke had recruited strong classes in 2012 and '13, but the '14 class was very small and '15 was the transition class, which was also very small. You can afford one small class, but two in a row is hard to overcome. (At least, it was in the pre-portal days.) 2017 was the year when those two small classes were upperclassmen, leaving us with our least experienced team in the Harbaugh era.
September 20th, 2023 at 11:14 AM ^
My 1986 calculations were wrong, as another user caught. It should have been a +1.83 PPG improvement over 1985
September 20th, 2023 at 10:43 AM ^
Jimmy broke his arm week 5 against MSU back in 84. Ironically our per game scoring was worse with him at QB than it was after he went down.
Games 1-5: 14.8 points per game
Games 6 - 12: 20.0 points per game
That was a rough year to be a Michigan fan.
September 20th, 2023 at 10:48 AM ^
That was my senior year at Michigan. That was a bad year.
September 20th, 2023 at 12:21 PM ^
It was my junior year at Michigan and the dropoff from Harbaugh to Chris Zurbrugg felt cataclysmic. Worst year of Michigan football in my lifetime until Rich Rod showed up.
September 20th, 2023 at 11:52 AM ^
If, God forbid, anything happens to JJ, the only thing that will prevent the 2023 season from being a 1984-style disaster is our defense.
September 20th, 2023 at 12:58 PM ^
That was back when Michigan played tough non-conference schedules. In 1984 they played 2 non-conference games: Washington who finished the year ranked #2 and Miami, Fl who finished #23. Wisky was another early game and they finished 7-4-1. Indiana was the only cupcake in the 4 games before MSU.
September 20th, 2023 at 7:58 PM ^
Miami was the defending champion that year, too, and Michigan won with a suffocating defense.
September 21st, 2023 at 12:13 PM ^
That was the year BYU won the national title by beating a mediocre Wolverines squad in a nothingbowl. Things were different in those days.
September 20th, 2023 at 10:57 AM ^
I tallied the 1986 Michigan team to have 379 points in 13 games for an average of 29.15 ppg. An improvement of 2ppg on 1985.
For the year Michigan scored 24, 31, 20, 34, 27, 20, 38, 69, 31, 17, 26, 27, 15
September 20th, 2023 at 11:04 AM ^
You are correct: there was a calculation error in my workbook that I didn’t catch. The 1986 stats are WAY wrong
September 20th, 2023 at 11:48 AM ^
The football section of the U-M Bentley Library site has the season totals already:
https://bentley.umich.edu/athdept/football/fbteam/1986fbt.htm
September 20th, 2023 at 12:11 PM ^
Makes more sense. I couldn't believe the team that won the guarantee game in Columbus and went to Pasadena was so bad offensively.
September 20th, 2023 at 1:43 PM ^
And still the offense completely faceplanted in the Rose Bowl, as is Michigan custom.
Harbaugh threw 3 picks, and ASU completely shut down our rushing game—we had 53 net yards.
15 points ain't gonna beat anybody. Just pathetic.
September 20th, 2023 at 3:17 PM ^
On the plus side, that win convinced OSU to hire John Cooper. Losing the battle to win the war!
September 20th, 2023 at 11:31 AM ^
Due to the clock changes, I'd be curious to see a breakdown of points per possession at the end of the year. Just thinking back to last year, Michigan's steamroller of death running game would have limited the total number of possessions and dominated time of possession to an even more extreme degree than it already did if the new clock rules had been in place.
September 20th, 2023 at 11:44 AM ^
I'm definitely going to look at this in some Harbaughffense diary. My theory, so far, is that every other TOP offense is figuring out ways to score more, while Michigan is content to score less.
Lots of football yet to be played, but one of my takeaways from the Harbaughffense diaries was that the Harbaughffense is REALLY BAD at long scoring drives. Like...always. Last year we were REALLY GOOD at short scoring drives.
So we need to improve on our ability to march down the field and pay it off with points. There just isn't the time any more to eat up half the quarter, fail to score, and have time to make up any kind of deficit.
September 20th, 2023 at 6:02 PM ^
My theory, so far, is that every other TOP offense is figuring out ways to score more,
Examples?