Big Ten Reset Rigs The System
Scores from last week (home team listed second):
- Illinois 72, MSU 81
- PSU 86, Nebraska 83
- Indiana 63, Rutgers 74
- Iowa 57, Michigan 79
- OSU 67, MSU 71
- Nebraska 70, Illinois 86
- Northwestern 67, Minnesota 59
- Purdue 73, PSU 52
- Michigan 73, Indiana 57
- Illinois 74, Wisconsin 69
- Minnesota 74, Nebraska 78
- MSU 55, Maryland 73
- Iowa 73, OSU 57
This was a great week for Michigan, a bad one for Ohio State, and a brutal one for Indiana's and Minnesota's tourney chances.
The Standings
Record | NET | KP/Torvik Avg | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | OVR | B1G | RK | Q1 | Q2 | Nat Rk (chg) | Proj. B1G Rec.* |
KP | BT | KP | BT | ||||
U-M | 18-1 | 13-1 | 2nd | 8-1 | 4-0 | 2.0 (up 1) | 16-1 | 5th | 6th | 4th | 8th | ||||
ILL | 18-6 | 14-4 | 6th | 8-5 | 4-1 | 6.5 (--) | 15-5 | 10th | 11th | 17th | 21st | ||||
IOWA | 18-7 | 12-6 | 5th | 5-6 | 6-1 | 5.0 (down 0.5) | 14-6 | 2nd | 2nd | 59th | 74th | ||||
PUR | 16-8 | 11-6 | 21st | 5-7 | 5-0 | 17.0 (up 4.5) | 12-7 | 27th | 34th | 26th | 31st | ||||
OSU | 18-7 | 12-7 | 8th | 7-5 | 4-2 | 7.5 (down 0.5) | 13-7 | 3rd | 3rd | 81st | 82nd | ||||
WIS | 16-9 | 10-8 | 24th | 3-8 | 6-1 | 11.5 (up 0.5) | 11-9 | 36th | 49th | 7th | 5th | ||||
MD | 15-10 | 9-9 | 29th | 5-9 | 1-1 | 28.5 (up 5.5) | 10-10 | 29th | 35th | 27th | 36th | ||||
RUT | 13-9 | 9-9 | 32nd | 4-8 | 4-1 | 28.5 (up 0.5) | 10-10 | 59th | 70th | 14th | 15th | ||||
IND | 12-12 | 7-10 | 57th | 3-9 | 5-1 | 40.0 (down 3) | 8-11 | 46th | 48th | 42nd | 52nd | ||||
MSU | 13-10 | 7-10 | 77th | 4-9 | 2-1 | 63.5 (up 5.5) | 8-12 | 82nd | 87th | 50th | 50th | ||||
MIN | 13-12 | 6-12 | 69th | 4-10 | 1-0 | 57.0 (down 7.5) | 7-13 | 45th | 47th | 74th | 76th | ||||
PSU | 8-13 | 5-12 | 52nd | 3-10 | 2-2 | 45.5 (down 7.5) | 6-13 | 38th | 44th | 58th | 67th | ||||
NW | 7-14 | 4-13 | 87th | 3-11 | 0-2 | 75.5 (up 2.5) | 5-14 | 119th | 117th | 41st | 54th | ||||
NEB | 6-17 | 2-14 | 138th | 1-11 | 1-4 | 102.5 (up 10) | 3-16 | 209th | 204th | 40th | 34th |
*Torvik's projections no longer include postponed games.
Michigan's magic number for winning the title is down to one. Any M win or Illinois loss will wrap it up; the two just so happen to face off tomorrow evening. Both KenPom and Torvik not only project the Wolverines to win that game but also both MSU matchups to finish with the most victories in the conference despite playing only 17 of their 20 scheduled games.
Illinois Update: Signs Point to No Ayo, Brad Underwood Says Something Stupid
preparing to claim a title at 14-6, somehow [Campredon]
Even if Ayo Dosunmu returned from his broken nose tomorrow night after missing the last two games, the chances Illinois wins out and Michigan loses out are 0.2%, according to Torvik's title odds. Given that bleak outlook, it's sensible for the Illini to let Dosunmu completely heal before a postseason run, and it's looking like that's the plan. First, there's the early line for the game:
Early line has Michigan favored by 8.5 points against Illinois. I can't imagine that bodes well for Ayo Dosunmu's chances to play tomorrow.
— Dylan Burkhardt (@umhoops) March 1, 2021
Then there's this quote from Illinois coach Brad Underwood:
Illinois' Ayo Dosumnu (facial injuries) remains "day-to-day", per Brad Underwood.
— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) March 1, 2021
Underwood on Dosunmu's status for the postseason:
"We're certainly hopeful of that. He's had every possible facial evaluation. We're not going to put him out there unless he's fully healthy."
This is the right approach. Particularly in a year with a condensed schedule, any good coach is going to prioritize long-term health over short-term gains and be understanding when other teams face similar dilemm-- wait, what's that?
Brad Underwood sending some subs: "We’re going to honor the (postponed games) b/c we’re a member of this league. We’re not gonna be the teams that pick & choose what we play for whatever. We’re going to show up. I think it’s about character, & this team has a ton of it." #Illini
— Gavin Good (@itsallG_O_O_D) February 27, 2021
Beat them by 40, please.
There's no legitimate reason to be upset Michigan didn't force themselves to cram in 20 Big Ten games when they were effectively under state-sanctioned quarantine for two weeks. The Wolverines rescheduled the toughest game that was postponed, which was—yup—the Illinois game. They gave MSU back-to-back cracks at an upset. The games they didn't reschedule—hosting Indiana, trips to Northwestern and PSU—would've helped their chances of winning a regular season title. The reason not to put them back in was player safety.
Meanwhile, the gripe about Michigan's women's team returning earlier than the men needs context. Namely, the WBB squad already had three games postponed before the two-week shutdown. They've now been left off two straight NCAA bracket reveals of the top 16 teams despite having a strong argument for inclusion, and in the first reveal the committee specifically cited M's need to play more games to earn consideration for a top-four seed. They were under significantly more pressure than the men to return early and it certainly hasn't seemed to help the women's squad form that they did so.
It's unfortunate that Dosunmu isn't looking likely to play. I want to see Michigan smash Illinois at full strength. Winning more Big Ten games in three fewer total contests may have to do.
[Hit THE JUMP for the pettiest table I've ever made, updated bracketology, injury news, and more.]
Debating Izzo With Math
just look at all these weird guys [Campredon]
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Izzo's full quote re. the NET rating and margin of victory is below. It's true, Michigan State surrendered some large leads this year and it impacts the numbers.
— Brendan Quinn (@BFQuinn) February 28, 2021
That said, don't fumble the Purdue game and close out that victory in Iowa City ... and this isn't a conversation. https://t.co/F44NDH2L3C pic.twitter.com/RRdLMoc0RC
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Okay, sorry, I have something more substantial for this than dismissive laughter. First, the Notre Dame game Izzo references: he put in his end-of-bench lineup—which features two current rotation players—with three minutes left up 77-59. They won by ten. They've had the chance to run up the score on one (1) other non-cupcake opponent, when Izzo emptied his bench with... one minute left in a 65-40 game after going on a 14-0 run against Rutgers. This cost them three points in the final margin.
Instead of cherry-picking examples, though, I wanted to dive into the numbers, just in case Izzo had a point in there somewhere. To examine this, I found each team's Human Victory Cigar: a guy they play only in blowouts, almost always a walk-on and often a coach's son. Michigan fans are intimately familiar: past U-M HVCs include Corey Person, Andrew Dakich (save for the bleak point guard injury years), and Fred Wright-Jones. CJ Baird's three-pointer against Texas A&M was an all-time Human Victory Cigar moment.
Is there a team that plays its end-of-bench units an outsized amount? There sure is. The program is even located in the state of Michigan. You're probably picking up on where I'm headed with this—the pettiest table I've ever put together (data via Hoop Lens, includes all games):
Team | Human Victory Cigar | HVC Offensive Possessions |
Team Offensive Possesions |
HVC% |
---|---|---|---|---|
Michigan | Jaron Faulds | 29 | 1345 | 2.16 |
Michigan State | Steven Izzo | 15 | 1584 | 0.95 |
Illinois | Tyler Underwood | 17 | 1804 | 0.94 |
Ohio State | Harrison Hookfin | 15 | 1674 | 0.90 |
Nebraska | Bret Porter | 15 | 1769 | 0.85 |
Iowa | Josh Ogundele | 15 | 1784 | 0.84 |
Northwestern | Eric Zalewski | 11 | 1517 | 0.73 |
Minnesota | Hunt Conroy | 9 | 1880 | 0.48 |
Purdue | Jared Wulbrun | 8 | 1673 | 0.48 |
Wisconsin | Carter Higginbottom | 8 | 1652 | 0.48 |
Maryland | Jade Brahmbhatt | 7 | 1593 | 0.44 |
Rutgers | Luke Nathan | 6 | 1587 | 0.38 |
Penn State | Taylor Nussbaum | 4 | 1537 | 0.26 |
Indiana | Cooper Bybee | 4 | 1732 | 0.23 |
Yes, Izzo almost had a point, since his team finishes second in percentage of minutes played by what he'd call Weird Guys, but it's a very distant second. Michigan is way beyond every other Big Ten team in percentage of Human Victory Cigar possessions; they're the only team to crack 1% and they're over 2%.
Any impact the bench mob has made on MSU's tournament resume pales in comparison to, say, that of losing by 18 at Maryland yesterday. Michigan, which passed Baylor for second in the NET rankings, certainly hasn't had any trouble overcoming this, uh, problem. Same with Illinois, Iowa, Ohio State...
Anyway, let's take a moment to appreciate the exquisite collection of names on this list, and also a few that just missed the cut: Benjamin Bosmans-Verdonk (Illinois), Nicolas Hobbs (Iowa), Aidan McCool (Maryland), Davis Smith (MSU), Jace Piatkowski (Nebraska), Elijah Wood (also Nebraska), Dom Martinelli (Northwestern), Jansen Davidson Jr. (OSU), and Walt McGrory (Wisconsin). We are truly blessed.
Final Week of the Regular Season Bracketology
Let's run this table back.
BM Seed | BM Avg Seed | BM # of Brackets (out of 100) | Torvik Seed Proj. | Torvik At-Large Bid % | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
U-M | 1 | 1.00 | 100 | 1 | 100.0 |
OSU | 1 | 1.24 | 100 | 1 | 99.9 |
ILL | 2 | 1.96 | 100 | 2 | 99.9 |
IA | 3 | 2.72 | 100 | 2 | 99.9 |
PU | 5 | 5.48 | 100 | 3 | 99.5 |
UW | 6 | 5.80 | 99 | 6 | 98.5 |
RU | 8 | 8.13 | 100 | 8 | 93.1 |
MD | 9 | 9.56 | 99 | 7 | 94.6 |
MSU | 12 | 11.48 | 58 | F4O | 17.1 |
IU | F4O | 10.54 | 35 | F4O | 20.2 |
MN | — | 11.60 | 5 | — | 5.6 |
PSU | — | — | 2 | — | 0.4 |
Eight teams look safely in the field: Michigan, OSU, Illinois, Iowa, Purdue, Wisconsin, Rutgers, and a Maryland squad whose resume is better than you might think. Two floundering bubble teams, Minnesota and PSU, probably need deep Big Ten Tournament runs to get back into consideration.
That leaves Michigan State and Indiana. The Spartans are the last at-large in the Bracket Matrix field at the moment but that includes a number of projections that haven't factored in the blowout loss at Maryland. Torvik's projections have them on track to be the second team out of the tourney field, one spot behind the Hoosiers. The MSU-Indiana game tomorrow night in East Lansing is huge for both squads, especially since that's the best chance each has to get one more regular season win—MSU proceeds to their Michigan home-and-home while IU travels to Purdue.
Both teams have more work to do regardless of tomorrow night's outcome.
Injuries and Departures
Illinois isn't the only team dealing with injury issues. We watched as Jack Nunge exited the Michigan game with an apparent knee injury, and while he thankfully avoided another ACL tear, he's expected to miss the rest of the season with a torn meniscus. Iowa's solution to their sudden lack of a backup center in Sunday's 73-57 win at Ohio State was to play Luka Garza 38 minutes and use Keegan Murray as a very small five for the couple other minutes. We'll see how they adjust when facing a team with more size up front on Sunday against Wisconsin.
Tom Izzo may have one fewer rotation player to toss into the mix as guard Foster Loyer is considering surgery on a shoulder injury that continues to bother him. Rocket Watts has played more point guard minutes in his absence with mixed results while Josh Langford and AJ Hoggard have both seen an uptick in playing time.
Meanwhile, Fred Hoiberg's What If We Built the Whole Plane Out of Transfers strategy isn't going too well:
Nebraska's Teddy Allen is leaving the program, per release. Averaged 16.5 PPG and 4.7 RPG this season.
— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) March 1, 2021
Allen has often singlehandedly carried the nation's 209th-ranked offense as the most willing of the three-ish players on the roster capable of creating his own shot to actually do so. It's going to be hideous without him, though that'll only be for four more games this season, in all likelihood.
Updated Tiers
Last week's:
Tier I: Michigan
Tier II: Illinois, Ohio State, Iowa
Tier III: Wisconsin
Tier IV: Purdue, Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana, Minnesota
Tier V: Penn State, Michigan State, Northwestern
Tier VI: Nebraska :(
This week's:
Tier I: Michigan
Tier II: Illinois, Iowa, Ohio State
Tier III: Wisconsin, Purdue
Tier IV: Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana
Tier V: Minnesota, Penn State, Michigan State, Northwestern
Tier VI: Nebraska :(
Purdue jumps up a tier, Minnesota drops a tier, and other than some Tier II reshuffling the rest stays static. Anyone still got a gripe with Michigan being in their own tier?
This Week's Schedule
All times Eastern. Subject to change.
Tonight: Rutgers at Nebraska (7, BTN)
Tuesday: Illinois at Michigan (7, ESPN), Indiana at MSU (8, BTN), Wisconsin at Purdue (9, ESPN2)
Wednesday: Minnesota at PSU (7, BTN), Maryland at Northwestern (9, BTN)
Thursday: MSU at Michigan (7, ESPN), Nebraska at Iowa (9, BTN)
Saturday: Rutgers at Minnesota (noon, FOX), Illinois at OSU (4, ESPN), Indiana at Purdue (TBD)
Sunday: Wisconsin at Iowa (12:30, FOX), Nebraska at Northwestern (1:30 BTN), Michigan at MSU (4:30, CBS), PSU at Maryland (7. BTN)
MSU fans on Twitter seem to be convinced that they're not on the bubble and are currently firmly in the tourney. Whatever they're smoking, I want some of it
They’re right, based on reputation alone.
I agree with you on the desire to have Izzo there to keep the streak and hope for a magical run but I am struggling to see who gets bounced for them. Now, if they beat Michigan once and beat Indiana, they are in. Lose two of three to finish and looking at their record and it seems inconceivable to defend. Lose three in a row and the door is closed. Beat Indiana and lose twice to Michigan and then they need to be in the Big Ten semi's and play sparkling the whole time.
My opinion. Go Hoosiers! Go Blue! (x2)
It's green and leafy, to be certain.
Only if it's a couch left outside.
Nothing says great resume like below .500 in conference and well below .500 against Q1 teams. I think they need to not only win out (or at least 2 of 3) but also make it at least Friday, if not Saturday, in the BTT to be amongst the last four in
You want drugs that make you more Sparty-like?
I want the drugs that make me that blissfully ignorant
So, more Sparty-like?
Do they they specify WHICH tourney? If not then I absolutely agree. Stone cold locks for the Big Ten tournament
Petty charting is the best "big brother" thing to do. I applaud the effort and the beauty. Hail Jaron Faulds!
I feel like I’ve been here all this time to read this particular analysis. Ain’t gonna get HVC charting on ESPN.
I'm assuming this is knowable, but it looks like part of the NET ranking is some shadowy algorithm, but my question is: if MSU hadn't won their games against ND, Duke, and maybe Oakland by as few points as they did, but everything else stayed the same, what would their current NET ranking (which is actually 77) be?
I can't believe it would be much different.
Actually MSU did win their games vs. Oakland and ND by the "max" margin - in fact they have 6 wins of 10 or more points. However all of them except Rutgers are probably Quad 3 or lower games. (RU is the only tourney team and probably a Q2?). Beating Duke by 10 or more would have been a good boost to their rank.
Everything I have heard on this subject is that the large margins are the only ones that matter - and that triggers at 10 points and apparently also caps at that margin presumably to discourage huge running up of the score.
I have also seen mentioned that the Ayo Dosunmu steal and bucket at the buzzer in the MSU game was a killer as it lowered the margin to 9 and thus eliminated it as a "big" margin victory in a Quad 1 game.
If you dare exploring Spartan Twitter and/or blogs, you will see comparisons of teams with similar records but worse Quad 1 wins etc. that are higher in NET. The sane reason is that those teams have either won some key games big or at least have kept the losses close. (Not going back there but I think at least one of Syracuse, GATech, L'ville were mentioned.)
I think the concept of the NET and others is good but the relatively few games -particularly out of conference games- have throw some of the models for a loop in some situations. (See 11-1 Colgate at #9 in NET.)
Yeah MSU doesn’t have the ability to beat anyone by a significant amount regardless of who they play. However, I agree that if the NET heavily takes margin of victory into account then it probably shouldn’t. If M is winning by 30 it makes sense to sit all starters until the margin shrinks to 15 or so. Obviously this isn’t an issue since M is so good and deep, but I wouldn’t want to have to worry about sitting guys just to make sure the NET gives me extra credit for margin of victory. I don’t know much about the NET though so maybe it doesn’t give much of an advantage for margin.
I suspect Dosunmu must have some facial fractures other than nose. He must really be struggling with playing with the rip Hamilton mask in practice. Underwood knows this and probably feels the title is out of reach.
In this week's episode of Staee schadenfreude
Wait. Are you telling me Nebraska has literal Frodo on the roster?
Elijah Wood is an actor.
Harrison Hookfin and Carter Higginbottom are true hobbits.
This is the right approach. Particularly in a year with a condensed schedule, any good coach is going to prioritize long-term health over short-term gains
Didn't Jace work as the HVC for M? Does being on scholarship make him ineligible? -- I don't really care but using Jace would have made the top 3 all sons of the HC.
Jace is expected to contribute. Bringing him here wasn’t an act of charity.
Robbie, Chip, and...Jace?
Juwan/Juan Howard as a modern-day Fred MacMurray seems legit, though. (edit) And Phil Martelli as Uncle Charley.
M vs. IL hopefully the clincher.
MSU vs. IU is an elimination game...shame somebody has to win. The quality of offense will be nearly unwatchable, other than a 'can't avert your eyes' fascination.
All very solid reasoning, but we just don't need to justify ourselves to the Children of the Corn. Juwan and Warde acted in the interests of the Michigan basketball program.
Re All BigTen names . . . Illinois has Coleman Hawkins.
(Only jazz fans will get this).
Those Human Victory Cigar names are straight from the Shire.
Sackville-Ogundele?
Theoden Thorblarthorson
Further insult to injury for MSU: over 25% of young Izzo's minutes are in games that MSU got blown out.
Could have tried to make that 30 point loss to Iowa a 22 point loss for metrics sake as well
This was my question. What do those numbers look like in only games where the HVC team is winning? Michigan’s separation from the pack in that stat will be ginormous.
Does anyone know what’s up with Torvik’s at-large projections? Michigan is at 100% and OSU/ILL/Iowa are at 99.9%. I understand the latter figure may be rounded down from some number very close to 100%, indicating only one or two scenarios out of thousands in which, say, Iowa, misses the field, but how is that possible? Is Torvik accounting for some kind of scandal that prevents a team from playing? Because I don’t see how Iowa would miss the field otherwise. If it’s accounting for some kind of COVID disruption, why is UM at 100% and not 99.99%...?
Was wondering that too. The 99.9% actually does make sense.
There are 30 automatic bids. Ten of those are multi-bid leagues. If all 10 are won by a bid stealer, now 40 bids are spoken for.
Six single-bid leagues are led by a team in the 12 or 13-seed range on Bracket Matrix. Say all six of those ascend to at-large territory but fail to win their automatic bid. Now 46 bids are spoken for.
That leaves 22 at-large bids. Iowa as of Sunday was 9th in the Matrix. Could they fall to 23rd if they lose out and the teams behind them all play well (but not well enough to win an automatic bid)? Still incredibly unlikely but possible.
The problem with this math is with respect to bid stealers. I get the concept; teams not in line for an at large bid win their tourney and get the auto bid, pushing the teams favored in their tourneys to at-large bids (and thus reducing the number of at-large bids available). But this only reduces the at-large bids available for the bubble teams. When you're slotting those favored teams into at-large bids (and thus reducing the number of spots available), you're implicitly placing them above teams like OSU/Illinois/Iowa. Especially for those six teams you mention in 12/13 seed range, there's no way they're jumping teams that have consistently been around the 1/2 line, which is what would have to happen for those current 12/13 seed teams to take spots and leave OSU/ILL/IOWA out of the field.
So in short, it must be a rounding error, because OSU/Illinois/Iowa are locks above all but a couple other schools.
I really do not get this. Someone help me out here.
You basically have to have a NET ranking of 50 or below, because of all the other small conferences that get their tourney winner in, right? Even then, there are a few that will not make it (so really, have to be top 48 or 45 ish NET).
MSU is currently 77th NET ranking. There is absolutely no way they are in if the NCAA does indeed use NET as their primary tool (that is if MSU goes 1-2 in their next 2 games, they should stay about 77th).
How in the world does BM and Torvik even have them with a chance of getting in? Isn't their chance at zero unless they win their next 3?
They’re a tournament darling. They get to cut in line just on name recognition.
I would assume NET plays an outsized role this year but who knows. I wouldn't be shocked if teams get bonus points for such metrics as "have the same first letter in their last name as the city and state they'll be playing the tourney" and that helps the Spartans.
But yes, otherwise it's sort of crazy the 77th team in NET is even sniffing a bid.
Could be wrong but I think those percentages are primarily historical, i.e. teams with similar resumes have gotten into past tournaments X percent of the time.
The Big Ten wants MSU to get it. See the hatchet job against OSU. The selection committee wants to put them in. Indiana sucks so I think MSU handles them no problem. If they split with Michigan they are in for sure. If they get swept by Michigan things get more dicey and I think they would have to get to the finals of the Big Ten tournament to get in. They don’t deserve it but I am preparing myself for them getting in.
What will it take for Ace to put Northwestern in the same category as Nebraska??? The Huskers even got a win while Northwestern continues to play like trash and yet no change. I suspect if you look at their efficiency stats after Northwestern's 3-0 start to B10 play they'd be identical or worse. Not to mention that the other teams in that 5th tier would be favored by a good amount over Northwestern.
Speaking of that tier, I think a swap of IU and MSU is warranted. MSU, as much as I hate saying it, has been playing well lately with a few good scalps (almost literally with Ayo) to their name. Meanwhile, IU is alone on Archie island without a clue of what good basketball looks like.
NU just beat Minnesota.
you keep asking this each week and the answer is: when nebraska isn't clearly by far the worst team in conference, which has been the case all year and is now even more the case since their best player left the team.
“What would it take Ace!” Whether Northwestern is as bad as Nebraska is a question for the ages, like what is in the truck in Repo Man.
I think you struck a nerve with Nebraska, up by 30 on Rutgers
well, for what it's worth, izzo often plays guys on the end of the bench (like 'mateen' izzo) because of his utterly bizarre roster construction and incomprehensible rotations. so there's a bit of egg v chicken conversation there.
Does MGoBlog have a HVC?
Pretty sure it would be either MgrowOld StevenrjKing or XM.
It’s either an otter, a cat, or a muppet
I really want to wreck MSU's chances by beating them handedly twice in a row.
I'm in this camp. There isn't added caché for the B1G to have them in, despite name recognition. Sorry not sorry, I want Mich to dunk on them while they're down. Best of it would be sending all our HVC with 4 min to go in the game. Not to mention the more rest we can give our starters at this point the better. Truth of the matter, it would actually look better for the B1G teams not invited to the dance, to go over to the NIT and make some noise rather than be a low seed in the Tourny and get wrecked by a high seed.
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