Your Candidates for the Early Season Overrated Bowl

Submitted by lhglrkwg on

There was a small side conversation in the P5 Coach Hot Seat Thread yesterday on this topic and I figure this'll be a good topic for the board at large. Everyone knows there's those early season top 10 / top 15 match-ups which are hyped to the moon but you know both teams are overrated. Or the teams are decent but the winner is incorrectly crowned a title contender in the immediate aftermath

Recent games:

Year Rank Team @ Rank Team Final Record
2016 #10 Notre Dame @ NR Texas 4-8, 5-7
2016 #12 MSU @ #18 Notre Dame 3-9, 4-8
2016 #9 Tennessee @ #8 Texas A&M 9-4, 8-5
2014 #21 Texas A&M @ #9 South Carolina 8-5, 7-6

Some early candidates for this year's Overrated Bowl.

Wk Rank   @ Rank  
1 #9 Michigan vs #16 Florida
2 #13 Auburn @ #5 Clemson
2 #15 Georgia @ NR Notre Dame
3 #23 Texas @ #4 USC

I'm not sold that USC is a CFP contender nor do I think Texas is suddenly good. I like Auburn-Clemson as the most likely to look huge early but see both teams finish 9-3. Winner of UGA-ND gets to declare that They Are Back en route to finishing 6-6

corundum

August 5th, 2017 at 10:41 AM ^

Derwin 'literally God' James tho. All joking aside, Cam Akers will be an obvious step down from Cook, but he is talented enough to be one of the better RBs in the ACC. FSU's biggest issue will be making sure the offensive line is improved from last year. Francois took more truck sticks to the chest than anyone last year and is in danger of getting Devin Gardner's ribs if FSU can't develop their interior line.

corundum

August 5th, 2017 at 10:00 AM ^

Week 3, Clemson v Louisville Clemson will be a top 3 team if they beat a hyped Auburn team in week 2. Louisville and Lamar Jackson will be placed somewhere in the top 15 for ratings purposes. Clemson has to replace Watson which is no easy task and their offensive line could take a big step back which would compound the QB situation. Louisville looked great last year until Lamar Jackson started throwing 360 degree no-scope picks in an embarrassing loss to Kentucky and fumbling every other play en route to a blowout loss to Houston. Both teams will most likely be overrated going into week three with a high likelihood of finishing the season with three losses. Whoever wins will be one of the most overhyped teams in the country.

M-Dog

August 7th, 2017 at 9:05 AM ^

Clemson has to replace Watson

Exactly.

People underestimate how much difference a player like him makes.

What do Vince Young, Cam Newton, Jameis Winston, and Deshaun Watson all have in common?  They were all, by far, the main reason their teams won a National Championship.

Their teams woud not have, could not have, won it without them.  And when they were gone, their teams all fell off significantly (Watson TBD, but yeah).  

You can't just plug in a new player to replace thier singular talents.

 

pmark1210

August 5th, 2017 at 9:55 AM ^

Texas is going to surprise a lot of people. returning qb, loads of talent, and tons of experience. watch out. Georgia could easily get to 10 wins, but that would be misleading. they won't be as good as their record indicates. nd could have another long season.

MIGHTYMOJO91

August 5th, 2017 at 9:58 AM ^

That being said I hope USC runs Texas out of the stadium. My hate for Texas is right up there with OSU and Staee. Their fans are obnoxious and so delusional.

Mr. Yost

August 5th, 2017 at 11:13 AM ^

Interesting.

I've always liked Texas and I've been to a few games and their fans are the most like ours, IMO. They're nice, I've never gotten much hostility out of them. They have the same arrogance we have in a lot of respects.

Your opinion and maybe you've had a different experience. But I don't see that at ALL.

IMO you have Michigan/ND/Texas/UNC/Washington who make up one type of fan...then OSU/PSU/and most of the SEC who are a completely different type of fan.

MSU has so much little brother syndrome that there is NO way you can put them with OSU. OSU fans would still go to games if they weren't good. MSU has no tailgate experience. MSU is just a bunch of MORANS who want so bad to be noticed and recognized as a bigger fan base and then burn shit when they don't get their way.

MIGHTYMOJO91

August 5th, 2017 at 2:04 PM ^

There are good Texas fans for sure I can't argue that. I am surrounded by Texas fans on a daily basis so yeah I do see the obnoxious/delusional ones more often. I wouldn't put them on a level with the fans of East Landfill or OSU morans but the level of obnoxious/delusion is quite high. I could fill this space with instances too numerous to mention as I am sure we all could  with the fanbases of OSU and little brother. Reality and the perception of reality is lost among a big portion of Texas fans, but that goes along with being a fan. I guess my MICHIGAN bias is showing....oh well.

 

GO BLUE!

grumbler

August 5th, 2017 at 3:02 PM ^

Their fans can be a bit overbearing, but they do know football and like to talk about.  They can talk Michigan football with me, for instance, and actually know what they are talking about.  SEC fans can be pleasant, but they don't tend to know anything about teams not in the SEC (or their particular non-SEC rivals).

lhglrkwg

August 5th, 2017 at 11:19 AM ^

because being underrated at 9 probably means we finish with 2 losses or less, but if things go like a lot of people expect (9-3ish) and Florida does nothing special, we could be a candidate for that early season game where people try to read way to much into how good the winner will do based on 1 game.

The winner of the game will see themselves being immediately thrown into the CFP discussion (Can Florida beat Bama?? or Is Michigan the favorite to win the East now??), when it's entirely possible both teams finish 9-3

corundum

August 5th, 2017 at 10:04 AM ^

As far as conference teams go, everyone knows Penn St is overrated but Wisconsin could also ride through most of the season with ridiculously high expectations despite one of the softest schedules in recent memory. Their marquee OOC game is BYU and they dodge both PSU and OSU in conference. They also get to play 2/3 of the celler dwellar trifecta in Illinois and Purdue. They could easily skate through their season with only a loss to Michigan, only to get blown out in the conference championship game and high-tier bowl game to close the season.

war-dawg69

August 5th, 2017 at 10:26 AM ^

Ya so I am redundant but after watching Wisconsin lose another Big championship ( at least not by 63 this time) can we please re-align the divisions or just get rid of them. This shit is becoming as predictable as the sec except the east has a different winner each year. I have the east winning the next ten years and this year it will not be close.

TrueBlue2003

August 5th, 2017 at 6:17 PM ^

other fan bases make fun of us.  Hey, we're recruiting well though! And we're in a glamour division!

Harbaugh helps our recruiting outside of the regional footprint.  Has nothing to do with our division.  As long as we play OSU every year and that rivalry remains strong, it doesn't really matter which other B1G teams we play.

I'm not advocating for realignment. Our division is fine. What makes it "glamourous" is us and OSU and as long as we stay in the same division as them or eliminate divisions altogether, the combo of other teams doesn't matter.

somewittyname

August 5th, 2017 at 10:25 AM ^

Curious to see if Washington can live up to the hype. I know they were close last year, but it's hard to make the jump to elite.

corundum

August 5th, 2017 at 10:36 AM ^

Darnold is a top 5 QB for sure, but there is enormous pressure on him now and an entire season of game film available to other coaches. USC also lost Adoree Jackson and Juju Smith-Schuster to the draft and they will be hard to replace. I think USC belongs in the top 10 but I wouldn't be surprised if they miss the playoffs.

Michigan4Life

August 5th, 2017 at 10:37 AM ^

finally has a legit QB in Sam Darnold. He's being viewed as a #1 overall worthy of a pick by NFL scouts. He's the one with the biggest buzz at the NFL combine this past February.

They have a great back in Ronald Jones.  Their defense is full of NFL prospects including Porter Gustin, Iman Marshall.

I don't think they're overrated. They're rated properly and they were one of the hottest team in the country to end the season.

Blueblood2991

August 5th, 2017 at 11:02 AM ^

The biggest storyline for osu is whether or not Kevin Wilson can fix JT Barrett. If he returns to freshman JT form, they could be dangerous. If he's too far broken and we see more of the same from last year, their offense doesn't concern me.

Mike Weber spends more time fumbling and poking eyes than scoring. Their WRs and their coach Zach Smith spend more time in Twitter battles than they do learning a route tree.

Blueblood2991

August 5th, 2017 at 10:55 AM ^

Not an actual matchup, but LSU being ranked preseason #12. Sure they look good on paper with tons of talented recruits, and arguably the best two coordinators in CFB. However, their starting quarterback is also former Purdue backup Danny Etling. 

The hype just seems premature. Coach O won't have to do much of anything to win games with Aranda and Canada, but I can see him managing to lose some for them. 

LSAClassOf2000

August 5th, 2017 at 11:00 AM ^

Georgia / Notre Dame is a good pick for the Early Overrated Bowl most years actually, and even better, even though Mark Richt is now gone from Athens, they can still blame him for losing control of the program. Actually, someone in Athens probably WILL do exactly that. 

bacon

August 5th, 2017 at 1:37 PM ^

Michigan has the fewest returning starters in the FBS (6?), our QB is a question and our likely starting-LT played center last year. Sure, we have a lot of talent, but I don't know how the coaches poll can realistically say a team with this much uncertainty is the 9th best in the country. IMO, we're overrated until we earn that ranking on the field.