Will every CFB game/bowl eventually be meaningless?
Asking this with a forward thinking curiousity about the the future of CFB.
The 12 team playoff is upon us, but with the sport being about $$$, but without a proper and organized structure to employ and/or reward players, do we eventually see guaranteed high draft picks opt out of what the public deems "meaningful" games once they've proven their draft stock.
We have evolved from the NCAA exploitative scam to an era where...
1) Players have NIL and transfer optionality
2) Bowl games beside the playoff are basically meaningless
3) We are trending towards 2 super conferences
For years the NFL and NCAA had the best deal in town...universities operated as the minor leagues for pro football and the schools and NCAA reaped all the rewards. Is it crazy to think, unless proper compensation rules and contracts are structured in the NCAA, that we see great players like MHJ or Caleb Williams start opting out of not just bowls, but regular season games once their draft position is essentially set? Could we even see players opt out of the playoff? We kind of saw this with JSN from OSU last year, when he was on and off injured early in the year and decided to just sit out the back half of the year to prep for the NFL.
Is it outlandish to thing we are trending towards a reality where CFB, if not properly organized, is treated purely as a stepping stone to the pros amongst most 1st and 2nd round draft choices?
On a side note, I'd expect that in the near future underclassmen will be able to declare for the draft as obviously there are players like Will Johnson, MHJ, Trevor Lawrence that could go to the league after their sophomore years. I think there will be a lawsuit around this in the near future.
Interested to hear others thoughts here
December 26th, 2023 at 1:30 PM ^
Yes.
Made this argument last week. Now just gotta wait for Quattro to show up to troll again.
December 26th, 2023 at 1:31 PM ^
Apologies, didn't see the post and didn't mean to steal your thunder.
December 26th, 2023 at 1:33 PM ^
It was in one of the daily bowl game threads, not a separate thread.
You're all good. Plus your post is well thought out and provides good detail.
December 26th, 2023 at 2:22 PM ^
Yes, Bowl games outside of the playoff are meaningless and may die. The teams in these meaningless bowls will be missing key players who opt out or transfer, so even their fans wont care because it’s not the same team they rooted for all year. Ratings will go down, fans wont travel.
December 26th, 2023 at 2:41 PM ^
We've come full circle, there used to be only a handful of bowls anyway and it'll probably be that way again.
It was best in the early 2000s when ESPN promoted "Capital One bowl week" and you would get a lot of new matchups with teams that had never played before.
Now we've played Florida about 15 times since then, we get a bunch of the same matchups over and over, and now they've jumped the shark.
There should be enough bowl games for all the top 25 teams and that should be it honestly.
December 26th, 2023 at 3:26 PM ^
Interesting, kind of like Ohio State this year?
December 27th, 2023 at 10:37 PM ^
The 12-team playoff will replace the bowl games. What is so hard to accept about this? It’s better this way. Nothing but quality games and plenty of them. Nobody cares about the Liberty Bowl. Good riddance.
December 26th, 2023 at 1:40 PM ^
Rent free
December 26th, 2023 at 1:53 PM ^
You the one that emailed him?
December 26th, 2023 at 5:29 PM ^
Don’t understand why people keep saying these games are meaningless. The fans, players and coaches do care and play their asses off in these games. So I ask if Michigan was playing in one of these games would you not watch and cheer for UM. It’s still UM players and maybe players who will need to lead the team next year. These kids worked their tails off this year and now get a chance to play
If games didn’t mean anything why show conference records? Why does the game go on a teams season record? Why do teams get a trophy to put in their trophy case.
Yes these games are not as big as CFP but they are not meaningless
December 26th, 2023 at 6:27 PM ^
They are meaningless outside of the extra practice and the glorified spring game. The players and coaches care so much they opt out or leave for other programs. With that being said yes I would watch UM only to watch for guys for next year.
The only people who care about conference record is SEC fans. Who cares what the rest of the B1G is doing? It goes on teams records so 9 win teams can say they had double digit wins. For example 2021 MSU. They got to beat Pitt’s backups then they put the MSU-UM score on their rings. It pads their stats and they get participation trophies.
December 26th, 2023 at 7:41 PM ^
Fuck the Big Ten
December 26th, 2023 at 6:59 PM ^
I remember the bowl game had some semblance of bragging rights and one last chance to see your favorite players on the big stage.
Now, so many players have opted out, that there's no bragging rights, and there's a good chance that the best players are sitting out.
I'm sure the players who do get to play are getting hyped, but the fan bases are often checked out.
It's just games played in half empty stadiums until the NY6 Bowl games.
December 26th, 2023 at 7:05 PM ^
I don't know why you got downvoted for making logical sense.
December 26th, 2023 at 8:18 PM ^
The reality is, other than the CFP, the bowl games are actually the beginning of each teams' next season.
December 26th, 2023 at 1:30 PM ^
They already are, except for the players.
December 26th, 2023 at 2:21 PM ^
I think this is the right answer. Or--at least--that they have lost a lot of their interest. Will be interesting to see if some of them go by the wayside.
December 26th, 2023 at 3:29 PM ^
Yep they are completely irrelevant. I haven’t watched a single minute of an opt-out bowl this year. No need to watch two 6-6 teams play with more commercials than game play.
December 26th, 2023 at 4:25 PM ^
This is correct.
Once they set up the CFP, they became much less relevant. NY6 bowls were filled half w/ teams who were disappointed they didn't make the CFP. This is when Opt-Outs started. The lower-level bowls still had some relevancy for the G5 / small P5 teams. Still, a quarter+ of the teams were losing their coaches - either fired or hired to take another role.
Then, with the transfer portal, bowls are fully irrelevant. Almost every team has double digit opt outs, transfers, or coaches sitting out. There are very few teams that resemble what they were all season. No matchups between teams that both resemble what they were all season.
Tbh, they've always been exhibitions. An opportunity for teams to go on vacation, get in some extra practice, and put on a show for the fans. They never really meant anything - except maybe the big ones.
December 26th, 2023 at 1:33 PM ^
Depends on the culture of their programs. If it’s a pay for play school, then they best play or no pay. If the player is dedicated to their school/program and have a “we play for each other” mentality or “we have unfinished business” then they will play.
If it’s a player who just wants to make it to the NFL and doesn’t care about the school/program or team success, then they won’t play. Probably going to differ on a case by case basis.
December 26th, 2023 at 1:54 PM ^
IMO, your take tracks best with the possible outcomes. However, even if CFB ends up with player contracts, the most draftable players would still likely opt out of any non-playoff game to avoid injury.
December 26th, 2023 at 6:24 PM ^
Start the CFP on game week 5 or so.
December 26th, 2023 at 3:23 PM ^
I’m not sure why the bowl season is still set up as a one-and-done style knowing the games only attract team’s alumni bases or die hard fans.
If the NCAA tournament and NIT has taught us anything it’s that casual fans will gladly watch playoff games over the span of a month and Div II and III already do this to some degree. Make a couple of invite-only playoff systems for all non-CFP teams over .500 or with 6 wins, select 4 bowl venues and invite 8, 12, or 16 teams to play. Start the week after the conference championships and there you go. You can crown a playoff champion before the CFP even starts.
Players will want to play in a tournament-style atmosphere and sponsors can promote the hell out of it with a ton of opportunities for fun upsets.
December 26th, 2023 at 3:27 PM ^
Bowl games also attract couch potatoes
December 27th, 2023 at 12:00 AM ^
And sports bettors.
December 27th, 2023 at 8:53 AM ^
People are being shortsighted - when the playoff expands to 32+ games, all of these bowls will be very relevant.
December 26th, 2023 at 1:36 PM ^
They will never stop,"Rowing the Boat!"
December 26th, 2023 at 1:37 PM ^
Didn’t one of the Bosas de facto opt-out of an entire regular season a couple years ago? Tweaked a hamstring (or whatev) during OSU’s first game, said “Fuck this.”, moved to LA, and began draft prep.
December 26th, 2023 at 1:40 PM ^
Not as long as JMFH is around.
December 26th, 2023 at 3:22 PM ^
This mess that is the NCAA is certainly one of the disincentives to the desire to coach at this level if you have the option to coach in the pros. No doubt JH loves UM, loves coaching and developing young men...but the whole damn system is broken and ungovernable.
December 26th, 2023 at 1:40 PM ^
Outside the playoffs they are already just a glorified scrimmage.
December 26th, 2023 at 1:48 PM ^
That's literally what they've always been. Bowl games were originally exhibition games attached to a fair or festival with the intended purpose of generating tourism.
December 26th, 2023 at 1:55 PM ^
Agreed. The question is does it go even further to where the playoffs are seen as just glorified scrimmages by the elite 1st round draft picks...
IE, Is it that outlandish to believe playing for a CFB championship for a school you perhaps just transferred into for the year is not more important than your pending $10mm contract?
December 26th, 2023 at 2:54 PM ^
It's soon approaching the point they are early early spring games. A place for "next year's" team to get their first chance, especially the newbies and underclassmen.
December 26th, 2023 at 3:25 PM ^
Its pretty much already there...its a try out for guys like the QB at OSU...if he falls on his face there's a good chance they portal someone in to take his spot.
December 26th, 2023 at 1:43 PM ^
Not ours!!
December 26th, 2023 at 1:44 PM ^
College football has been a NFL feeder for decades.
Bowls are not meaningless. For most players it’s one last time to perform on the field. For coaches it’s the start for preparation for the next season.
For guys like Harrison and others they are meaningless which is why they opt out.
For fans the bowl is the final time to see their team in action for nine months.
December 26th, 2023 at 1:50 PM ^
Not sure you read the post...
1) Not talking about most players...specified 1st and 2nd round draft choices
2) Fans don't matter on this topic, talking about $ and players opting out
CFB has indeed been an NFL feeder for decades, but if you can't see the paradigm shift in brand equity from school to individual player taking place, I don't know what to tell you.
December 26th, 2023 at 1:58 PM ^
We don’t see players opting out of the NCAA Tournament in basketball and hockey. Why would they do so in football?
The NFL isn’t going to look kindly on players who opt out of meaningful games for a future paycheck.It’s one thing to opt out of a bowl game. It’s quite another to opt out of a playoff game. NFL wants guys who dedicate themselves to their craft and their team.
Sure, people can challenged the sophomore rule. They may even win in court. But most of those guys will end up in spring football leagues. Most players need at least three years of seasoning that college provides. NFL and NFLPA recognize this.
What should happen is set up like we see in hockey and baseball where a player can be drafted but maintain their eligibility for a year. Pro teams can acquire player’s rights while player is developed by college team.
December 26th, 2023 at 2:56 PM ^
Injuries.
Career ending or "dropping 3 round" injuries aren't happening commonly in those other sports. Rare to break a leg or tear an ACL in those sports. I am sure there can be a case or three showcased but percentage wise it's low. Meanwhile any play in NCAAF could be career ending.
Look kindly? Bosa quit on this team as did JSN. Both drafted 1st round. They could care less - it's about game changing ability and $$$.
I do think they need to move the draft eligibility up a year and just let these people go to the draft earlier rather than all this dancing and prancing around should I or should I not play - at least for skill positions where body development is not as important as a DL or OL. T. Lawrence would have been #1 overall the year before he came out if he was eligible.
Why not be like bball where you can enter your name for pro draft evaluation - if you see you are a 6th rounder and think you are a 3rd you come back. If you are a 1st or 2nd rounder grade, you get that feedback and can go.
December 26th, 2023 at 4:34 PM ^
I was referring to players opting out of playoff games. JSN opted out of the Rose Bowl. Bosa suffered a serious injury. He didn’t quit.
December 27th, 2023 at 8:23 AM ^
Maybe because NBA and NCAA MB are terrible right now? Love the T Lawerence example as well … yes so much better if he hit the NFL earlier?!
December 26th, 2023 at 1:45 PM ^
Certainly could happen. Look at the AHL, or the G-League, or even AAA Baseball (though this is the place it's least pronounced of the 3). Because the pay-out at the big league level is SO high, development matters much much much more to the players there than winning their games.
Fans in the cities of those teams - they've noticed that. I used to live in Cincinnati. A friend of mine there is a huge hockey fan, it's why he's happy they have an ECHL team instead of an AHL team. The hockey is lower quality but the players seem to care about winning a bit more.
My prediction with college football is that you'll see some schools lean into "come here, be part of a winning culture and community", and other schools lean more into "come here, make $ and get ready for the pros."
Which schools will be which? We can make some educated guesses. But ultimately, still TBD.
December 26th, 2023 at 3:01 PM ^
Miami (YTM) is clearly about culture and community!
December 26th, 2023 at 3:32 PM ^
I mean, if we go back to the 80s, 90s and early 2000s, Miami hit EVERY box --- there was an electirc culture and community around the program, players and fans alike wanted to be there. Plus lots of $$$.
Maybe that's the trick. Do it all.
December 26th, 2023 at 1:49 PM ^
As long as ESPN is running most of the bowls, they'll never go away, but they should.
December 26th, 2023 at 1:52 PM ^
Have they ever not been meaningless? It explains Michigan's bowl record historically: who cares. Give the team a nice vacation somewhere warm, and there you go.
December 27th, 2023 at 8:31 AM ^
Recency Bias. In the 80's and 90's, they were not meaningless, and I venture in the 70's as well. However, the Big 10 only sent 1 team to a bowl in the 70's! So it meant something to get to go. Today, yes, it is a far different landscape. But to say have they ever not been meaningless means you have not existed that long.
December 26th, 2023 at 1:52 PM ^
There already have been multiple lawsuits where CFB players sued for the right to enter the NFL draft early. Maurice Clarett and Mike Williams (USC) come to mind, both ended up mostly shut out of football after an appeals court overturned a lower court's ruling that they could enter the draft.
In the ~20 years since, the courts have shifted away from legal precedent and in the direction of the political preferences of the judge(s) involved so it's unclear if the result would be the same today. This isn't such a left/right issue so anything could happen.