What would it take to change your mind (either way) about Harbaugh
It appears that we are all pretty locked-in on our positions about whether it was the right or wrong call to give Harbaugh a contract extension. I do not want to rehash that decision here yet again. Nor do I want this thread to turn into the usual pissing match about Harbaugh’s record since coming to Michigan. We already know about his 10-win seasons (on one side) and about his record versus OSU, ranked teams, etc. (on the other side). If you want to engage in this type of debate, please do it in one of the other threads discussing that topic.
What I am genuinely curious about is this: what it would take for you to change your opinion? For those that supported keeping Harbaugh, what would it take for you to believe that it’s time to move on? For those that wanted to see him let go, what would it take for you to support keeping him?
I’ll start.
I’m on record that I believe it was the right choice to keep Harbaugh. I’m also on record that I think 8-4 is the floor for this team. Anything less than that would be a disappointment. So what do it need to see to support keeping Harbaugh or, alternatively, finding a new head coach?
- I think a 9-3/8-4 season probably warrants keeping Harbaugh for another year.
- A losing record would be a deal-breaker. I’d hate to see Harbaugh go, but I’d support the decision to get rid of him if we have a losing record.
- A 7-5 or 6-6 record would depend on other factors, most importantly offensive competency. I think the defense is going to struggle, especially in the beginning of the season. If the offense is keeping us in games, scheming to their advantages, utilizing their talent, showing some tempo, and above all scoring points, then I’d look forward to the future when the defense is fully installed and we’ve recruited the right players for the system. If, on the other hand, we see a disorganized offense with no growth, failure to use tempo when needed, inability to keep us in the game, etc., then I’d support pulling the trigger and let Harbaugh go.
- Improved QB play. This probably goes with the point above about the offense, but I don’t see any reason to have mediocre QB play this year. Cade has a full two years in the offense and should be able to make any of the plays the coaches ask him to make. Bowman should feel at home in the offense that we run. Either guy should give us above average play without counting on JJ this year. I’m not asking for superstar QB performances. But (late-season) 2015 Rudock, 2016 Speight, or 2018 Shea levels of QB play should be the baseline comparison. Again, anything less and I’d support letting Harbaugh go.
Again, please do not turn this thread into an argument about the past. I’m genuinely curious about what you need to see in the future. And please no mudslinging. We all support the same team.
Go Blue!
What would it take to change your mind (either way) about Harbaugh?
For me he's gotta do one of two things. Either a) he has to beat OSU or b) if he loses to OSU he has to beat everyone else in the conference. Even if he repeats 2016 and loses a close game to OSU, but sweeps MSU, PSU, & Wiscy and maybe just loses to some other random B1G foe like NW that's just more of the same JH, but it's the good version of JH. That's probably the best we can expect of him...10-3. I need to see something more than what he's already accomplished at UM to feel like he can get over the hump.
Like others have said, OSU has averaged less than one conference loss per season this past decade and their recruiting is a full tier above.
Therea a certain baggage that comes with being the football coach here and it's getting Ithe way of both our enjoyment of football and the ability of a coach to succeed here It's a little unfair to hold Harbaugh's 0-5 record against him when 99% of other coaches would or have had a similar record against him. Case in point - Wisconsin has lost its last 8 vs. OSU, but no one ever called for its coaches to be fired for that failure.
Now part of that is because Wisconsin has generally not been terrible outside of OSU games, but if we'd had the exact same results as they've had you could be certain that the narrative about our coaches' job security would be a lot more heated because of the perceptions surrounding the rivalry.
All that is to say that, no, Harbaugh's 0-5 record vs OSU isn't a reason to fire him. His mismanagement of the offensive skill positions, high attrition, and inability to keep the team from mental missteps in big games that made the 0-5 record a foregone conclusion, is however a potentially nfireable offense. This season is the make and break point for reversing that.
It's not reasonable to expect this team this year to win vs the death star in Columbus. It is reasonable to at least look like it's playing the same sport and not get torched by scrub teams like MSU and Rutgers. Fix that and then we'll see about OSU.
It's not reasonable to expect this team this year to win vs the death star in Columbus. It is reasonable to at least look like it's playing the same sport and not get torched by scrub teams like MSU and Rutgers. Fix that and then we'll see about OSU.
I would be on board with that if this was JH's 1-2 year. You're acting like he didn't have 6 other shots at OSU already. If you take the argument in a vacuum and just look at our expectations for UM vs OSU in '21 most UM fans wouldn't expect much. But, that wasn't the question. It was would make you change you mind about JH (assuming it's already negative). We expected a little more in 2018. Even in 2017 if JH could have developed a top 75 composite QB recruit (Brandon Peters) and actually had him ready to play by his second year in the program he could have beaten OSU back then when the defense them under 35pts. The problem is not this year. The problem is what led to this year. He needs to overcome the obstacles and win when he's significantly less talented, just like Iowa, Purdue, even PSU has. So no, not even if he loses this year to a significantly more talented OSU team, is that reasonable. The only caveat I have in that is if he beats everyone else and only loses a close game. But, if it's your run of the mill 9-4 season AND a loss to OSU...that doesn't move the needle to me for having any faith that JH will ever get "there".
(you probably won't see this because this topic is 170+ responses deep, but...)
That's a fair point. I think I'm willing to give Harbaugh some more rope and maybe I don't know why other than we know firsthand that it could always be worse. You're right that this upcoming season that will probably suck is where it is because it stood on the shoulders of the previous shitty seasons. And most of that is because of Harbaugh.
That said, regardless of how we got here, it's where we are and it's not possible to retroactively change that. So if we see this team come out and show us some fight, some offensive competnce and some goddamn playmaking that we hadn't seen before but still not be good enough to beat a semi-pro OSU team this year, I could live with that because it would at least portend a positive trend that gives us something to cheer about.
I am sure that no one wants the football team to win more than Harbaugh so I don't doubt he'll try. But as of right now I am with you in that I have little faith left in his ability to do so.
I just want to have fun watching the team play. Fewer dumb mistakes, more explosive plays on offense. Maybe throw in a win versus a rival and ranked opponent.
I'm in the glad we kept him camp. And I'm digging how mostly civil this is thus far.
To lose trust in Jim and be ready for him to go:
- Clunky start to the offensive season. There's simply too much talent for this team to go halfway through the year, a la 2019, before it finds its sea legs on offense.
- Losing to teams we shouldn't. Here's where some disagreement may stem. Western and NIU are both obvious wins. Losing either would be a dealbreaker. Maryland showed improvement last year but their track record of mediocrity in the league combined with the fact that--COVID weird year non-withstanding--Mike Locksley has only won in his career as an OC with silly amounts of talent. Maryland is a must win. Rutgers played really hard last year and their recruiting really picked up. Purdue did that in Brohm's first year but never really advanced from there. Rutgers is certainly improved under Schiano but until they have a breakout year, they fall in the must-win category. Northwestern loses a metric ton from last year. It's at home. Fitzgerald is annoying. Must win. Lastly, I know winning at Nebraska is challenging but my goodness have they looked mediocre under Frost. Must-win.
- Losing to State. The talent disparity is way too great. Another loss is completely unacceptable.
- Going 0-fer against the meat of the schedule. Additionally, being uncompetitive against Washington, Penn State, and Indiana. We have comparable, if not greater, talent than all of those teams. I'd hope that we'd go 2-1 against that group but recognize that might be tough. I wouldn't accept a blow out against any of them.
- Not showing signs of life against Wisco or OSU. I will yell at the TV like a crazy person when we play Wisconsin. My dog will be confused, scared, and probably put itself up for adoption because of how annoying that will be. That said, I really doubt this team is going into Camp Randall and breaking our streak there. We're almost certainly not going to beat OSU, but the loss has to be such that you feel we're getting there.
- Lastly, I despised how few guys Brown rotated on defense. I get keeping your starters in as much as possible in your toughest games, but subs would come in far too late in far too many games. The defense is younger to begin with and we're in the era of the portal. Let's get guys out there and see what, if anything, they can do. An unwillingness to do so would really hurt my confidence.
And I'm digging how mostly civil this is thus far.
Me too. I actually have a little tear in my eye.
My dog will be confused, scared, and probably put itself up for adoption because of how annoying that will be.
Priceless comment. This is actually one of the reasons I forced myself to remain calm during games. My poor dog would get so nervous that he would go hide. I just couldn't do that to him anymore.
I read the “don’t lose to teams we shouldn’t” and there are justifications made as to why we’re losing ground on the likes of Maryland and Rutgers and I cringe. You are right, but we should never, EVER, be talking about being close to those programs.
This is my biggest “need to see”, some separation from the bottom half of the league where we get back to guaranteed 6-7 win B1G seasons and don’t question games vs MD, RU, MSU, even IU and everyone but Iowa and Wisconsin in the West. Home or road, we need these games to be easy wins.
It’s disappointing to be at this point, but if he can turn it around he’ll get me back on board.
Beat OSU. The end. Harbaugh has done everything else. This is the last piece of the puzzle.
it doesn’t need to be all the time. It doesn’t even need to be half the time. Hell, I’d be satisfied with once every three or four years like what Auburn has done with Saban. Alabama has better talent than Auburn pretty much across-the-board in any given year, but Auburn has still found ways to beat those guys just enough to keep the rivalry honest.
I’m not dumb enough to overlook the fact that OSU has several built in advantages that Michigan will never have. Talent rich state and no instate competitors for that talent. All the best players in the state of Ohio dream of growing up and playing for OSU. They have been the most consistent program in America over the last 40 to 50 years. That success builds upon itself and parlays into future success. I can count on one hand how many bad seasons they’ve had, and I don’t even need all the fingers. Everything about their program right now is a cut above, so ruining their season every so often would be perfectly fine with me.
Just being realistic about what I think this current program’s capabilities are. I don’t think, as it currently stands, that Michigan has the capability to beat OSU every other year. But they are more than capable of doing it every 3 to 4 years.
"Harbaugh has done everything else."
See, this is where he lost me. I don't feel like losing at least two other games every year is doing everything else. If he had, I'd still be on board and he might have already beat ohio or at least would be getting closer rather than further away.
He has done everything else?
Does that include getting to Indy? Winning a championship?
Dominating MSU?
Getting into the playoffs one time?
If this program's current capabilities are what Harbaugh has brought, why do we even watch?
I expect more, especially for a program that has been talkative and boastful about being "the winningest program in college football." "The Leaders and Best."
I don't mind the topic, but I think a more important question is what does Ward need to see or not see to change course. I understood both positions after last season for retaining or going in a different direction. Once the decision to keep Harbaugh was made I thought then and now that it was a minimum two year decision. You don't extend the head coach and allow him to change his entire defensive staff and a significant turn over on offense for a "show me" one year experiment. Ward is a football guy. He can look at the schedule, the roster, and the system change and know that next year has great potential to be rocky. Unless it is a total dumpster fire 3-9 type deal I believe this extension was a two year minimum deal with the "show me" year being 2022.
You don't extend the head coach and allow him to change his entire defensive staff and a significant turn over on offense for a "show me" one year experiment.
I agree and I'm expecting some defensive woes. But the offense isn't facing that type of transition and I think it's perfectly reasonable for Warde to look at the progress on offense. If they can't keep us in games, or at least look competent, I think that's a problem.
More than fair. The offense needs to make sense and look competent. Enough talent to compete and put up points with the majority of the teams on the schedule. Harbaugh really rolled the dice with Gattis. Still think 2022 is the year for higher expectations but not doubt offense needs to show major growth and stability.
Easy.
In 2015, the team started slowly and improved throughout the year.
Every other year since they played their best football in the first half of the season and rapidly deteriorated from there.
This must stop.
I am all in for JH and have been since day one. He is busting his ass for Michigan and would rather die than lose. We are up against an OSU program that has become a force of nature, unlike anything we have seen since 1968. I enjoy football Saturday’s because we play competitive and entertaining football. Last year was a BS contrived season. We had opt outs, injuries, no spring practice, and shitty luck. As long as he doesn’t cheat or shame Michigan, I will remain solidly behind him. He is a stud QB away from competing with any elite team in the country. Maybe JJ will be that guy. However, don’t go to sleep on Cade. The current battle reminds me if the Hensen vs. Brady competition in the late 1990’s. Go Blue and Go JH!!
The problem with this is that he was brought here to turn Michigan into a force of nature (like Jim Tressel and Urban Meyer did at Ohio State). And he was brought here with the expectation that he would churn out stud QBs That was the level of hype that accompanied his hiring and that's what's commensurate with the amount he was paid (until his contact extension, anyway).
By year seven, you kind of are what you are. I would love it if he turned it around, but I just don't see it happening.
Mike Hart and other Michigan players getting back into the fold is a good start. The man took a significant pay cut. He lost three legit Wars last year, a solid QB, all during a pandemic.
I see him winning and the fanbase wanting him to stay. And then him moving on to the NFL. I just hope whatever happens, Warde makes the right decision.
I am pro Harbaugh, pro Michigan.
Beating Ohio State would be a start. Honestly, I would prefer a 6-6 season with a win over OSU to a 10-2 season that ended with yet another curb-stomping.
You're delusional if you think 8-4 is the floor. The defense will be a work in progress, and that's if we're lucky because that implies progress. I simply don't see our offense being able to consistently win games by scores like 40-37.
Then you go on to say Harbaugh should be retained if the team goes 8-4 this year. So what you are actually saying is that Harbaugh should be retained unless Michigan performs so bad it's even worse than you think is reasonably possible. Either that or you don't know what "floor" means.
You may be right
I may be crazy
Oh, but it just may be a lunatic you're looking for
Turn out the light
Don't try to save me
You may be wrong for all I know
But you may be right
(Above was in response to your first paragraph. You edited your comment to add the second paragraph. You're right, I misused the term "floor". Thanks for pointing that out.)
If he pulls off a 9-3 record i would definitely call that a success and a surprise. But this season will not change my opinion on Harbaugh
I want so badly for Michigan to beat Ohio State. Singularly, that's the one thing that would make me happy as a fan.
Overall I think it was the right move to keep Harbaugh, for now. They had to. And I like the staff shakeup.
Just win, baby.
For me it's simple but not quite measurable - the offense needs to be good to excellent from the gate. If QB is not settled after we ran 2 experienced backups off campus, then what's the point? Defense nobody expects to be good, but i expect it to improve week to week. And in the end if the season, we should be competitive in EVERY game. Including The Game.
If the O doesn't score, if the D doesn't improve, if we are blown out if the game again - goodbye. Meet the above criteria and that gets you to 2022, but need to win the big ten east and beat Ohio for me to say we should wait until 2023. Do either of those this year and then you've got some leeway in 2022
8 wins or more and he can stay in my book. But to really win me over he’s got to beat OSU and get in the playoffs. Otherwise, I’ll keep following at a distance. I can’t remember the last time I didn’t know all the players. I see practice footage and have no idea who these guys are by number alone.
Even if you take the OSU Deathstar out of the equation, Harbaugh should win most of his games against Wisconsin/PSU and wipe the floor with MSU. That just isn't happening.
11-1 with a loss to OSU would be a big improvement and I just don't think that will ever be the case with Harbaugh.
Just look organized for Pete’s sake. Not expecting a ship...but show growth, show cohesion and everything will sort itself out eventually
go blue
For those talking about "vibes" would you take the 2019 season? The team looked like hot garbage for the 1st half of the season yet still went 5-1. The Penn State game, even in a loss, marked a turning point before a very good one-month stretch before getting blown out by OSU to end the season. The team still went 9-3, but I would say the "vibes" that year were shit.
I've been in the fire Harbaugh camp because a) the results just haven't been there for an "elite" coach, and b) the behind the scenes shitshow--GA coaching WRs one year, last year's QB debacle. To change my mind I'd want to see results on the field--beat OSU, win the East, etc. The fact that fans think "moral" victories / "vibes" are good enough says everything you need about how far the program has fallen.
Frankly, I think the entire football program needs a reboot. It's an entire culture that seems decades behind the times living off the memory of Bo. The last time Michigan had sustained top 3 program in the country success was FIFTY years ago.
Win the B1G. Doesn't matter if it is unrealistic. It's year 7.
BUT, if we get to The Game with a chance to go to the conference championship game with a win, and we lose The Game, I give him one more year to win the conference. Because that would tell us that he is close to getting over that hump. But he would have to deliver next year.
Yep. Spot on.
A GD B1G championship at least. If he doesn’t get it this year (highly unlikely) he needs to be in the next bus out of town.
This is pretty much the same as saying you think there's nothing he could do to deserve to keep the job.
Where I am right now: I think Harbaugh should have been let go after last season, not for going 2-4 but for how they looked while they went 2-4. I'm not angry at Harbaugh like some people seem to be; I feel bad for him, because he obviously loves Michigan and didn't envision his time here going like this.
I would change my mind if they had a 10+ win regular season, or 8+ with a win against OSU. I would say on average I expect them to win 6 games against this year's schedule, with losses to Washington, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Ohio State, and then two of Maryland, Northwestern, Indiana, and Michigan State. Losses to any of the other four opponents should probably lead to a firing on the tarmac.
Harbaugh came in with a bang. He was everywhere. Doing music videos, satellite camps, and making headlines all over the oak e. And then they didn’t beat OSU. And they got worse over time.
He knows none of the bravado or hype matter. He’s in a bunker ready to prove it on the field or he will leave on his own. Should be an interesting ride and I’ve got my popcorn ready.
The only way I would support Harbaugh being fired this year is if it’s a total shit show. Losing record, young guys entering the portal, players giving up or seemingly disinterested during the games. - which I don’t think it will happen. I think the team will be solid this year and our perspective is skewed because of the messed up covid year. I’m sure Harbaugh played by the rules while OSU and other teams were practicing while they were supposed to be shutdown. I believe Harbaugh and Day actually had words over this exact issue. It’s probably a good thing expectations are low because most of us will be thrilled with a 9-3 season. With our current talent level, 9-3 is a reasonable result.
I would like to see Harbaugh be given at least three more years. If he can’t beat OSU in the next three years with McCarthy, Edwards, and company then he probably won’t ever be able to, but if he does breakthrough against them once, it could turn the whole thing around. It should’ve happened in 2016. His trajectory would be completely different if JT was marked short or if the officials would’ve called at least a semi-fair game in Columbus.
I'm definitely sympathetic to the "covid year" argument. At the same time, I would argue that the three things you listed--losing record, young guys bailing, giving up on games--all happened already last year. Genuine, non-rhetorical and non-snarky question: why would we be surprised to see that this fall again? Stipulating your belief that U-M followed the rules while others, including OSU, did not, I'm not sure that's still a sufficient explanation for what we saw.
In some ways I'm jealous of your outlook, though. You're clearly less jaded about it than I am.
I'm not sympathetic to it at all.
Every program dealt with the same measures and protocols. It's alarming to me that a lot of our fan base feels this pandemic was centered on Ann Arbor and nowhere else.
I agree that it isn't a full explanation of what happened last year, but I think it's plausible that it created a lot of unusual variance. If you take higher variance as given, the likelihood of a 2-4 record from a team whose true ability would on average have given a 4-2/5-1 record goes up.
I think that's more or less then story with PSU. As I tried to imply above, I don't think that's why Michigan went 2-4. I think they were just bad, and will probably be kinda bad again this year.
I'm in this camp with regards to COVID. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if Harbaugh mishandled things during the pandemic in terms of preparation. Is this why McCaffrey left for instance? Without the vagaries of the pandemic, I too could see the team rebound.
In short, it's not an excuse and shouldn't be used as one. It is a reason to expect the team will be better than projected.
I was at that game in Columbus in 2016 and you are spot on. The spot on the 4th down run is one thing. Who knows? But the 95 yards in penalties on us vs the 6 yards against them still pisses me off. I doubt I will ever completely get over that game. But a breakthrough win against them would sure help me live with it.
Don't lose to MSU. Don't get blown out by Wisconsin. Beat bad teams that a good team should win with ease. 2 losses would make me feel better about the team's direction. 3 is tenable IMO depending on who they lose to and how good they look overall. Anything less than 4, I think it's time to find a new coach.
If JH cannot turn it around nobody can IMHO not the guy in Ames.If JH falls on his face their is a serious behind the scenes problem because this man can coach football.Look at his record at USD,Stanford,Frisco.Some here act like he has forgotten how to coach or correct problems within the program.He may not be the reason for the attrition case in point X Worthy.
He doesn’t have the same assistants he had at those places to cover his ineptness. It’s glaring now how he isn’t who everyone thought he was. Complete Fugazi
If it is a problem behind the scene, hiring 3 more former Michigan players was a terrible decision
1. Coherent game plans for all 3 phases for every game; no unit looks unprepared, ever.
2. Clock and TO management: the routine burning of 20+ seconds of play clock while behind and late, use of TOs immediately after change of possession/start of the quarter, and general lack of urgency & organization is unforgivable.
3. Juice. The team needs to be equally motivated at home and on the road, whether favorite or underdog, rain/shine, night/day, situation immaterial.
4. Mental toughness. No more turtle act when the team gets hit in the mouth.
Bottom line: be well coached and competitive, show fight until the final gun.
The first time the banner looks too high as the team runs beneath it; or the disorganized mess on both sides of the ball so prevalent last year shows up; or the team taps out under duress, he needs to be left in the parking lot.
I say this as a fan, not an alum.
I'd rather Michigan keep Harbaugh. You don't know what's behind door #2. It most likely will be worse than the current coach... (Hoke, RichRod, Les Miles).
There hasn't been a sniff of NCAA violations. There is a good to great graduation rate. I don't want the team I root for to become a "football factory". 80%+ of the young men on the team won't have an NFL career. Educate them. Run a clean program.
What I need to see -- this list is longer than it was a couple years ago....
- Continue to graduate men of good character, remaining scandal-free.
- Improve the culture of the team, so that players want to remain, have fun, and excel.
- Scheme for functional, modern football in all three phases, including the ability to use tempo and be prepared for it on defense. This includes doing a better job of scheming to take advantage of opponent weaknesses rather than "this is what we're doing, no matter what."
- Improve the mental strength of the team to allow for better execution, better performances on the road, and occasional upsets of better teams.
- Achieve a level of performance that allows us to beat MSU, PSU, and teams from the Big Ten West a majority of the time. Recall that Bo and Lloyd beat these teams consistently when they played them.
- Overall, achieve a consistent win percentage of 0.750 or better. (Bo = 0.796, Gary = 0.758, Lloyd = 0.753)
- Become at least competitive with OSU again. If these other metrics improve and the team improves from where they are now, then winning once every three or four years isn't too much to ask.
What would change my mind is if I see a turnaround in the morose, no-intensity, lack of toughness we've seen in the team for the past several years. If we start seeing a team that looks like they want to win and are competitive in all the games they play, I'll start caring again. Right now, the program has sapped my enthusiasm for U-M football.
8-4 is the floor?!? WHY? You read Seth’s comments yesterday. Did you get the sense that he has the expectation that 8-4 is the floor?
this team is terrible. They don’t have the athletes, the football players or the coaches to prepare, execute, and close out winning football games for this schedule.
Harbaugh can stay IF we see many guys on the field actually become football players; go beyond their potential to the actual standard of Michigan football.
Do you think this program can win a conference championship in Indy? Do you think they can make the playoffs?
If that isn’t the standard then why even do it? Get rid of Harbaugh and go find someone to lead the program to the playoffs. Keep trying until you get that person. Works out for Ohio St. Even worked once for MSU. It’s NONSENSE that Michigan can’t do it.