What Lies Ahead / Everything Still to Play For

Submitted by uofmfan_13 on October 30th, 2021 at 6:55 PM

Thoughts on Michigan State at Perdue? Any chance for upset there?

I don't see Maryland playing the spoiler for either team. That leaves common opponents Ohio state and Penn state. 

Does Sparty have a chance in Columbus? Or is this the pinnacle for both schools and we're looking at the inevitable Ohio state coronation?

I'm disgusted and downtrodden today but I truly would like to see someone in the big ten championship beyond Ohio state and Wisconsin, even if it is Sparty.  That's the most overplayed match up in this conference and I'm sick of it. 

Go blue beat Indiana. 

enlightenedbum

October 30th, 2021 at 6:58 PM ^

Need OSU and one of Purdue/Penn State to beat Sparty and then need to win out.  Which means fixing a variety of defensive/red zone issues in the next month enough to beat a much better team than MSU.

Squad16

October 30th, 2021 at 9:26 PM ^

We could possibly be in the best shape for a 3-way 8-1 tie between us, MSU and OSU too because we played Wisconsin. I believe the West opponents you play factor into the tiebreaker at some point, and the Badgers are probably winning the West again after today.

 

EDIT: Nvm....OSU would probably be in the best shape, though we'd be in a better position than MSU for sure (2/3 of our opponents are the same as the Spartans, so we'd be ahead of them as long as Wisconsin finishes with a better Big Ten record than Purdue, which seems very likely as Purdue still has to play MSU & OSU, whereas Wisconsin has a cakewalk to the finish besides Minnesota).

 

It's the combined record of the West opponents you faced in that scenario. All 3 of us play Nebraska so that evens out. Then it would be Wisconsin & Northwestern for us, Purdue & Northwestern for MSU, and Minnesota & Purdue for OSU. Wisconsin probably will have the best record of those 3 teams, but probably only by about a game, and Northwestern probably would sink us (be at least 2 games behind Purdue theoretically, etc.). So, we'd need to root for Wisconsin and Northwestern, and against Minnesota & Purdue in their November games (besides when Purdue plays Sparty obviously). 

Durham Blue

October 30th, 2021 at 11:20 PM ^

Ugh, here we go again.  What other teams need to beat the team that just beat us to give us a chance to get to the B1G championship game.

Tired of the mental gymnastics.  We should've won this fucking game today.  Correction, we should've crushed that MSU team today.  And here we are, again, figuring out how we get to the promised land after fucking shooting ourselves in the foot.

But BUT, I do remain optimistic.  I like this Michigan team and I think we can make a lot more noise this season.  Need to clean up the defense.

Qmatic

October 30th, 2021 at 7:01 PM ^

MSU will lose another game besides OSU. 

I think we will be 10-1 when we play OSU. 10-2 and a NY6 bowl. A win in that game and we feel good about the year despite the two losses to rivals. 

Ham

October 30th, 2021 at 8:52 PM ^

I think this is the exact right point. This wasn't two evenly matched teams trading body blows. This was a better team costing themselves a victory (which just happened to be against their only in-state rival) because of miscues and bad decisions.

Ghost of Fritz…

October 30th, 2021 at 8:01 PM ^

As someone said in another thread, if Harbaugh is never going to win a Big Ten CC, then he has to do well against the main rivals.  Zero wins against OSU.  3-4 against MSU. 

Totally rational to maintain that zero Big Ten CC, zero wins against OSU, and losing record against MSU misses the mark.  

As for the '...but people thought Michigan would top out at 8-4...' argument, since when does a head coach get the excuse of screwing up so badly last year that pre-season expectations are low so losses to OSU and MSU are excusable?

uofmfan_13

October 31st, 2021 at 9:30 AM ^

Disagree. I'd feel great about a season where Michigan represents the big ten in the playoff and wins the conference championship. Even with a sole close loss to a rival.

Do you think Penn state fans didn't "feel good" when they got trounced by Michigan yet fluked their way into the big ten championship in 2016??

1VaBlue1

October 30th, 2021 at 7:01 PM ^

I don't think anyone is beating OSU.  We can hope that PSU will beat MSU, because Michigan will ground PSU to dust.  But with the tie-break in MSUs corner, it just sucks.

Cam

October 30th, 2021 at 7:03 PM ^

Is this a joke? Ohio State is going to murder both MSU and Michigan. Stroud could legitimately throw for 600 yards against both defenses.

Bo Harbaugh

October 30th, 2021 at 7:10 PM ^

Depends...are the refs gifting 14 points to MSU against PSU?

Doesn't matter in the end...OSU is the best team by a wide margin in the B1G.

UM is the 2nd best on paper, which means nothing as we know.

uminks

October 30th, 2021 at 7:11 PM ^

I think PSU will be a toss up game on the road. I hope the team can bounce back and beat IU. I think Maryland should be a win. OSU is just going to have a filed day picking apart our secondary, plus they will gain a lot of yardage on the run. We could finish anywhere from 10-2 to 9-3.

WalterWhite_88

October 30th, 2021 at 7:13 PM ^

Can somebody remind me of the rules for a 3 way tiebreaker? For example, if Mich beats OSU (by some incredible miracle), and OSU beats MSU, and so all 3 teams end the regular season with 1 conference loss? 

enlightenedbum

October 30th, 2021 at 7:22 PM ^

Tiebreakers (if at any point one team drops out, it goes back to head to head)

1) Record within the group of 3 teams (in this scenario, all are 1-1 so move on to...)

2) Winning percentage within the division (5-1, so move on to...)

3) Record against 4th place team, then 5th place team, etc (1-0 against each so...)

4) Winning percentage against all common conference opponents (perfect, so...)

5) Conference record of the opponents from the other division.
OSU: Nebraska, Purdue, Minnesota (currently 8-8)

MSU: Nebraska, Purdue, Northwestern (currently 5-11)

Michigan: Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin (currently 5-11)

We are rooting for Wisconsin and Northwestern and against Purdue and Minnesota.

If that ends up tied for all three...

6) The result against the West champion.  Doesn't matter if they've only played one tied team.  So we want Wisconsin to win the West.

7) Overall winning percentage (we're fucked if we get here, because OSU is eliminated so it reverts to M/MSU head to head)

8) Draw lots

Msmittakins

October 30th, 2021 at 7:18 PM ^

Even 10-2, with losses against both rivals, doesn’t feel good. It’s a weird place to be in. Only a very improbable win against OSU would seem to be narrative shifting. I’m trying to keep perspective considering preseason expectations. 

NeverPunt

October 30th, 2021 at 7:22 PM ^

It sucks. Full stop. But also no one thought 10-2 was a remote possibility this year. I dunno. It’s hard to know what to think other than that we are doomed to this under Harbaugh. 50% chance of losses to Sparty, PSU, and UW. Guaranteed loss to OSU. Probable bowl loss. Repeat. Maybe we roll that dice enough to get a championship 1 of 10 times or something? I dunno. 

jhayes1189

October 30th, 2021 at 7:40 PM ^

Mostly agree, I hope when a change does happen it’s a true upgrade, because their aren’t many Saban, Meyer, or Swinney’s out there. I will say this, I hope we don’t become what has happened to Nebraska, Texas, USC etc…a constant revolving door. I will still pain thru 9-4 to keep up there win % and stabilize culture and recruiting until we truly find the guy who elevates us. Revolving door = no program stability. 

shags

October 30th, 2021 at 8:04 PM ^

Every time people say "Fire Harbaugh!", whether it's frustrated Michigan fans or analysts like Paul Finebaum, this question needs to be asked:  Who are you hiring?  Give me names.  

Harbaugh's won 70.9 percent of his games, and Ferentz, if you take out his first two seasons, has won 65.6 percent of his games.

It's just that the expectations were for Harbaugh to win 90 percent of his games.

YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

October 31st, 2021 at 12:03 AM ^

1. Dave Aranda - winning close games and has a personality that would work with UM’s donor base.

2. Matt Rhule - college and nfl winner; hires excellent staff; strong in-game coach

3. Joe Brady - reset the curve on O with good talent and hire a strong DC.

4. Jim Leonard - high risk but high level of intensity and competitiveness; if he is right guy, then he is 20+ year answer. 

Need someone totally committed to recruiting and creating a razor-sharp culture. JH has endorsed hard work, but UM could benefit from a coach who demands high performance.

jhayes1189

October 31st, 2021 at 10:45 AM ^

I actually like this list….I believe Jim Leonard is going to be an amazing head coach…I remember being annoyed by how frustratingly sound he was as a safety at Wisconsin, I think he’s the same way as a coach. Matt Rhule also a great name to drop, could end up being a Pete Carroll or Saban type who left the NFL for a blue blood with a recruiting base. And obviously Joe Brady with his success as an O coordinator (but could he also just be Tom Herman?)

jmarsh22

October 31st, 2021 at 2:00 AM ^

So tired of this lame “who could we hire?” excuse for keeping Harbaugh. I don’t know, that’s not my job. Guess what, not many people knew who Mel Tucker was a year and a half ago. He has already turned the MSU program around and made it better than Michigan. Good coaches are out there. Find one. 

jabberwock

October 30th, 2021 at 10:23 PM ^

What the fuck are you even talking about,  Program stability?  

How stable is giving up 50-60+ points to OSU the last few years?

How stable has recruiting been?  Still some good to great players, but trending down unfortunately.

Losing to your rivals or any ranked team and every bowl game is stable?  Sure, stable-bad.

Harbaugh is so stable he's practically frozen in time.

Stable is just another way to say scared and risk averse.  Programs don't reach greatness that way anymore.