What incoming Freshmen could start next year?

Submitted by Eli on December 19th, 2018 at 10:21 AM

First Board Tab for me so I hope this is ok to ask. Who do you guys think could start for us or be major contributors out of this incoming class for next season? Also, who will they beat out? Meaning if Hill starts, who will be his backup?  I’m having a blast today following this and conversating with all of you!

Gentleman Squirrels

December 19th, 2018 at 10:32 AM ^

Dax obviously. Mazi and Hinton will be in rotation at DT. Charbonnet will get carries alongside Evans, Tru, and Turner. May give Giles or Sainristil (b/c he's an early enrollee) a role in those jet sweeps that we only used with Ambry (especially since Ambry is likely a starter at CB). The rest are likely redshirts.

stephenrjking

December 19th, 2018 at 10:35 AM ^

Good topic. 

Hill, obviously. He can’t be kept off of the field. I figure some D line guys will be in the rotation. 

The obvious guy on offense is Charbonnet. We know what Evans and Wilson being to the table. They are good. They are not great. Hard not to hope that Charbonnet is great right out of the box. 

gobluem

December 19th, 2018 at 10:37 AM ^

Dax Hill obviously

 

Charbonnet could too. I

In 2016, the lead back (D Smith) got 32% of the carries, Evans got 15%, Higdon got 13%, Isaac got 13%

In 2017 Higdon got 31%, Evans 26%, Isaac 17%, Walker 4%

In 2018 Higdon got 43%, Evans 14%, Wilson 11%, Mason 6%

I envision more RBBC (a la 2017) so a true starter could be unlikely. But I think it's reasonable to say that Charbonnet could get 25% of the carries next year depending on how things shake out with Christian Turner and how they want to use Evans. And Tru Wilson is probably in line for some decent snaps too.

 

 

Mazi has got to play some now that our DT depth is poor

Ghost of Fritz…

December 19th, 2018 at 10:38 AM ^

Keep this in mind.

The three guys from the 2018 class that had the most impact on the field in 2019 were...

The last rated guy in the class (Jake Moody-Punter and now FG kicker)....

The 2nd to last rated guy in the class (Ronnie Bell WR), and ....

The top rated guy in the class (Aiden Hutchinson D-line).

Take away:  Hard to predict which true freshman will be most ready to have the most playing time.

Caveat:  Lots of guys that did not play much or at all as true freshman will still have big roles thereafter.

But from the 2019 class...Dax Hill is going to get a lot a PT from day 1.

Space Coyote

December 19th, 2018 at 11:17 AM ^

Those are a little situational though.

Moody burned his redshirt because he was the designated KO guy. Harbaugh seems to like to split them away from the primary FG kicker.

Bell burned his redshirt because the depth chart at WR was killed based on transfers and injuries.

Hutch burned his because 1) he was good and ready enough to; 2) there was a major chance he was going to have a potential starting role in 2019.

outsidethebox

December 19th, 2018 at 10:46 AM ^

I love, love, love this class...especially the trenches!!! However, the big boys stepping into much playing time just does not happen...here, Rumler and Smith would seem to be the best chances. Hill and Charbonnet are the elite, non-big boy talents that will make an impact from day one. I expect Hill to be a difference-maker from the beginning. I also believe Charbonnet should average 15-20 carries per game-from day one...get this kid up and going-he's a beast of a player. 

I believe Michigan football continues to ascend. I am not a mindless, blind optimist...but I believe the 2019 team will be better than 2018...the NFL and transfers not withstanding. The kids behind those leaving are damn good!

Blue In NC

December 19th, 2018 at 11:44 AM ^

I will have what you're having.  I love the optimism but I just cannot get beyond the losses of Gary, Winovich, Solomon, Bush and potentially 2 CBs to think that the D will not take a substantial step back.  Offense will improve but I think the offset will be about equal (offense improvement = defense losses), and that assumes that Shea comes back.  But I guess never doubt Don Brown.

WayOfTheRoad

December 19th, 2018 at 10:58 AM ^

Zach C, M Smith, D Hill and Jackson (ST) are sure bets to get a lot of time, IMO.

 

I'm still not sure that Hinton is better suited for DL than OL so he may not even be the freshman with the 2nd most snaps at DL, IMO.

Space Coyote

December 19th, 2018 at 11:13 AM ^

I think the most likely to start are Charbonnet and then Hill. I don't expect either to be regular starters (but I wouldn't be surprised if they got a few games). I fully expect Hill and Charbonnet to have significant roles right away, and Smith and Hinton being in the rotation (especially Smith) immediately. At least one of the slots should burn their redshirt, (Sainristil, Jackson, G. Johnson) and wouldn't be surprised if one of the LBs lost their redshirts (most likely to special teams) even with the relative depth there.

Safety, especially in Brown's system, is very difficult to step right in and be a starting safety. I think Hill will have a role, likely at a specific position as a third safety/nickel, but won't be the primary starter responsible for getting the whole defense aligned on a drive-to-drive basis (my personnel guess is Metellus and Woods, though the safe bet is Metellus and Hawkins, and if that's the case, I would be interested in Woods getting reps at Viper because I expect Hill to take Metellus's spot in 2020).

Charbonnet will likely be part of a platoon of at least three backs that includes Evans, Wilson, and himself. Wouldn't be surprised if it's another year before the current FR see their role significantly increase. I think most everyone else redshirts.

Props to the staff for getting a C. Johnson, G. Jackson, Q. Johnson, and G. Johnson all in one class though. All WR/ATH types. That won't be confusing at all.

Space Coyote

December 19th, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^

I think they need to get him reps at Safety, so that's where he'll play. Brown's playbook can utilize a third safety quite a bit when that's the strength of the personnel (you've seen a bit of it in recent years with Woods or JKP getting reps as the third safety). Some of that will end up with man coverage in the slot, but I think they want to keep his reps at that position for the future.

Gr1mlock

December 19th, 2018 at 11:28 AM ^

Seems likely Hill and Charbonnet will definitely contribute early.  Hill beating out Hawkins most likely to start, Charbonnet being in the committee but he's talented enough that I could see him becoming a bellcow pretty quickly.  Hinton and Mazi Smith also seem likely to contribute early, at least in a rotation if not as true starters, since we're losing a lot on the DL.  I imagine a few others will break through and see some snaps here and there (although those are hard to predict, who had Ronnie Bell as seeing a bunch of run coming into the year?), but my hope is that we don't need too many freshmen to be immediate contributors. 

Mongo

December 19th, 2018 at 11:38 AM ^

Starter - Dax Hill at FS

Big frosh contributors - Smith, Hinton, Solomon, Charbonnett, Q.Johnson, Turner, Perry

and

What a great OL class, incredible foundation for future years!

Ron Utah

December 19th, 2018 at 11:56 AM ^

Ronnie Bell taught us that while rankings matter, almost anyone can contribute if they're ready.  Here's my take on each guy:

  • Daxton Hill - Safety is a very tough spot to start as a true freshman, but Hill's talent is undeniable.  If he can pick up the system, he'll start.  He'll get playing time either way.
  • Zach Charbonnet - An early enrollee at a position that needs some depth, and probably the best RB recruit Michigan has picked-up in a decade, Charbonnet is likely to play early and often in 2019, though I doubt he passes Chris Evans as the nominal starter.  Would be great to see both Charbonnet and Evans on the field.
  • Chris Hinton - Highly-ranked and physically-gifted, Hinton is likely to play at either anchor (SDE) or 3-Tech (DT) this season.  It's very tough to start on DL as a true freshman (Gary did not even start as a freshman), but Hinton's size and athleticism mean he's likely to be in the rotation.
  • Mazi Smith - Another early enrollee at a position of need, Smith is almost a lock to play quite a bit as a true freshman.  Start?  NT is perhaps the most difficult position on the field to start as a true freshman, but Smith will have spring ball and eight months of conditioning, so he may earn a spot at DT or NT by season's end.  Jeter, Kemp, and Dwumfour will make it tough.
  • Nolan Rumler - College-ready size and mentality, but is OL and the interior of our line is stacked.  Redshirt is highly likely.
  • Trevor Keegan - There is an OT spot up for grabs.  If Keegan were enrolling early, I think he'd have a shot, even though true freshmen rarely excel on OL.  That said, I do believe he'll make the two-deep and may lose his redshirt if there are any injuries to our tackles.  I'd expect Runyan and Mayfield to start.
  • Trente Jones - Another OT with great upside, Jones may need to add more weight before he's ready to crack the two-deep and is a very likely redshirt.  May also end-up at guard.
  • Anthony Solomon - LB is loaded for 2019, and VIPER is even more stacked.  Solomon needs to add weight and continue to develop his athleticism.  Almost certain redshirt.
  • Jalen Perry - If he's a CB, he has a great chance to contribute as an early enrollee at a position that is wide open.  There are some rumblings that he might be a safety.  He may find some time at nickel as well.  While the roster lacks clear starters, there are loads of DBs, so a redshirt here is probably 50/50.
  • Cornelius Johnson - An undeniable talent that seems rated too low, CJ's challenge is simply a loaded depth chart at his position.  DPJ, Black, Collins, Martin, and Bell all have significant experience and should be reaching their potential in 2019.  Barring injury, CJ probably gets his four games and a redshirt.
  • Cade McNamara - Shea Patterson clone (seriously, watch his hudl) will have to fight his way up the depth chart and is one of the most likely redshirts in the class.  That said, McNamara is a special athlete who may be pushing for the field by his second season.
  • Giles Jackson - Jackson brings a talent that is unlike any player on the current roster.  If Michigan continues to advance their offense and opens up their passing game, Jackson will play quite a bit, though he is unlikely to start with the crowded WR depth chart.  It is probably a good sign for our offense if he's playing a lot.
  • David Ojabo - Relatively new to football and still a bit raw and undersized, Ojabo is a near-certain redshirt but has enough talent that he may very well see action in four games.  He needs to add weight and has lots of learning to do, but his measurables compare favorably to Zach Harrison's.
  • Karsen Barnhart - An athletic freak who is rumored to now be 6-5, Barnhart may actually develop into a tackle.  Adding weight and refining his technique against top competition will likely mean we have to wait at least a year to find out.
  • Erick All - Have you seen our TE depth chart?  Can't imagine All breaking the two-deep as a freshman.  If he does, it means we have a special talent.  His tape and numbers are impressive, but Gentry, McKeon, Eubanks, Muhammad, and Schoonmaker is a lot of talent in front of him, at a position that may see a diminished role in 2019.
  • Quinten Johnson - Another safety prospect that is a special athlete, QJ may see the field as a special teamer but is highly unlikely to crack the safety or VIPER rotations.  That said, his off-the-charts athleticism might earn him some time at nickel.  I think he's one of the most underrated prospects in the class and, to me, is only a 50/50 redshirt candidate despite the depth chart.  Athletes like this need to play.
  • Mike Morris - An anchor prospect that needs to fill out his frame and has quite a few talented players in front of him, Morris is a very likely redshirt.
  • DJ Turner II - Another CB who could surprise, but is more likely to need some time to catch-up to the other DBs ahead of him.  Likely redshirt.
  • Charles Thomas - Fearless, fast, and strong, Thomas is probably my 2nd SOTY choice, but I think it'll take a few years to see if the CT player is going to be a star.  Again, LB is pretty loaded.  Very likely redshirt, but another potential special teams guy.
  • Zach Carpenter - Mauling interior OL prospect that have time to develop behind the plethora of OGs already on the roster.
  • Jack Stewart - A likely OG that needs to fill out and compete at the highest level in practice before he sees the field.
  • Mike Sainristil - My pick for Sleeper of the Year, Sainristil is a ridiculous athlete that could play nickel, safety, slot...another compact player with a skill set that simply does not yet exist on our roster.  That said, Giles Jackson is likely in front of him on offense and a crowded defensive backfield in this class and on the roster mean his odds of playing as a true freshman are lower.  But I would not count him out--he's another special athlete that could force his way onto the field.
  • Gabe Newburg - More football player than athlete, Newburg will need to add weight and continue to develop before seeing the field.
  • George Johnson III - The third slot candidate in this year's class, GJIII's inclusion signals a philosophical shift by the offensive staff.  He played QB (mostly) in high school and has the shifty speed and balance traits coveted by spread teams in a slot WR.  Could also contribute as a wildcat specialist, but he's unlikely to crack the rotation as a true freshman.
  • Quintel Kent - ESPN's lazy ratings technically disqualify Sainristil and Thomas from SOTY, since they both have four-star ratings from the worldwide follower in recruiting.  Kent is most definitely criminally underrated and I believe will develop into a solid #2 if not a #1 WR before he's done at Michigan.
  • Joey Velazquez - Sometimes it takes athletes time to find their position, and that may very well be the case with Joey.  Recruited as a VIPER (likely our single most loaded position on the roster).  A ripped 6-0/205 who reports a 4.51 40 time, Velazquez is likely to find a place on the field, but probably not as a freshman.

*left off Pesek-Hickson since he is not signing today and is another likely redshirt

CaliforniaNobody

December 19th, 2018 at 1:29 PM ^

Charbonnet and Evans will compete for the top RB spot. Dax and Brad Hawkins I’m guessing will compete for the safety spot. Mazi and Hinton could get immediate snaps at the newly vacated DT spot with Dwumfor and co.

maizedNblued

December 19th, 2018 at 7:29 PM ^

Honestly and realistically, I do not see any freshmen starting next year. Quite the leap physically, mentally and emotionally to get the nod during your rookie campaign especially when there are talented and groomed players in front of you that know the system, terminology, playbook and schemes. Some will get time on special teams, I imagine some nickel time for DH, The two interior D-lineman will see time but maybe a few snaps a game. ZC will get some touches in the backfield.To be clear it is not a knock on any of these guys, many of them just will not be ready to produce consistently enough.

 

 

Mr. Yost

December 19th, 2018 at 10:47 PM ^

I don’t follow Michigan recruiting very much anymore, so the freshman are a complete guess (especially OL) - I basically just looked at the commit list on 247. Remember that you can play 4 games and still redshirt. 2 posts in 1 day - I'll always be blue at heart! But here you all go...take care.

 

QB:
1. Shea Patterson
2. Dylan McCaffrey
3. Joe Milton
rs: Cade McNamara
(I think Peters transfers)

 

RB:
1. Chris Evans (same number of carries)
2. Tru Wilson / Zach Charbonnet (split Higdon’s carries)
4. Christian Turner (Wilson’s carries)

 

FB:
1. Ben Mason
2. Ben Vansumeren

 

WR:
1. Tarik Black
2. Ronnie Bell
3. Quintel Kent

 

WR:
1. Nico Collins
2. Cornelius Johnson

 

WR/SLOT:
1. Donovan Peoples-Jones
2. Oliver Martin
3. Jake McCurry / Giles Jackson
rs: George Johnson III

 

TE:
1. Zach Gentry/Sean McKeon
2. Nick Eubanks
3. Mustapha Muhammad
4. Luke Schoonmaker
rs: Erick All

 

LT:
1. Jalen Mayfield
2. John Runyan Jr.
3. Joel Honigford
4. Ryan Hayes
rs: Trevor Keegan

 

LG:
1. Ben Bredeson
2. Chuck Filiaga
3. Phillip Paea
rs: Karen Barnhart

 

C:
1. Cesar Ruiz
2. Stephen Spanellis
3. Nolan Rumler

 

RG:
1. Michael Onwenu
2. Stephen Spanellis
rs: Zach Carpenter

 

RT:
1. John Runyan Jr.
2. Andrew Stueber
3. Joel Honigford
rs: Trente Jones
rs: Jack Stewart

 

WDE:
1. Josh Uche
2. Luiji Vilain
3. Taylor Upshaw
rs: David Ojabo
rs: Gabe Newberg

 

NG:
1. Carlo Kemp
2. Donovan Jeter
3. Mazi Smith

 

DT:
1. Michael Dwumfour
2. Chris Hinton

 

SDE:
1. Kwity Paye
2. Aidan Hutchinson
3. Ron Johnson
4. Julius Welscof
rs: Mike Morris

 

WLB:
1. Devin Gil
2. Cameron McGrone

 

MLB:
1. Josh Ross
2. Jordan Anthony
3. Charles Thomas

 

VIPER:
1. Khaleke Hudson
2. Michael Barrett (unless he’s still playing offense, then take 1-2 of the true freshman)
3. Hassan Haskins
rs: Anthony Solomon
rs: Joey Velazquez
rs: Amauri Pesek-Hickson

 

CB:
1. David Long (fingers crossed)
2. Ambry Thomas
3. Vincent Gray
4. Gemon Green
rs: DJ Turner
rs: Mike Sanstrill

 

CB:
1. Lavert Hill (fingers crossed)
2. Ambry Thomas
3. Myles Sims
4. Ben St.-Juste
rs: Jalen Perry

 

FS:
1. Daxton Hill/Jaylen Kelly-Powell
3. German Green
4. Sammy Faustin

 

SS:
1. Josh Metellus
2. Brad Hawkins
3. J’Marick Woods
rs: Quinten Johnson