The Vig - week 5
The Vig - Week 5!
How did you do last week?
My straight plays ended 4-3 hitting on Georgia, ND, and SMU. Lost both of my parlays.
This is on my dance card this week:
Texas -4.5 @ TCU
Michigan -114
OVER 57.5 ULM @ Coastal Carolina Fancy Chickens
OSU -14.5 @ Rutgers
MSU -10.5 v WKU
KState +10.5 v. OU
Parlay (Wake -6.5, O 56.5 CCU/ULM, Bama -14.5, Oregon -7.5, Cuse +4.5, bc +15.5) +4507
and my favorite play of the week of BC +16.5 @ Clemson. Clemson may win but their offense is scrambling and I'm not sure they can score 16 points on their own.
What are you playing?
October 1st, 2021 at 8:25 AM ^
I feel like Michigan won’t win by 114 points but I like the optimism!
in all seriousness, I like the card. I personally am avoiding RU OSU but if I had to, I’d take RU and the pts. But that may be emotional coming off of last week.
October 1st, 2021 at 8:57 AM ^
I think OSU will cover. Rutgers offense still isn't that good, and OSU will have competent & aggressive playcalling for 4 quarters instead of 2.
October 1st, 2021 at 9:21 AM ^
I bet that OSU will have no trouble moving the ball at will against Rutgers. Whether the Buckeyes defense can hold Rutgers to 13 pts is a different question.
October 1st, 2021 at 9:40 AM ^
I could still see OSU outscoring them by 15 though...that's 39-24? 45-30? I'll take that.
October 1st, 2021 at 11:53 AM ^
That's the kind of score I envision, although I think the margin will be a bit higher.
October 1st, 2021 at 9:40 AM ^
Stroud is starting at QB so this one is a toss-up imho.
October 1st, 2021 at 8:31 AM ^
I'm on:
ARK/GA over 48.5
Oregon -8 (@ Stanford)
OSU/RUT over 58.5
Florida -8.5 (@ Kentucky)
Fresno St -10 (@ Hawaii)
October 1st, 2021 at 8:35 AM ^
6-6 last week thanks to the Mertz pick 6 fest killing my under.
I like road dogs this week.
BC +14.5 at Clemson
LT +18 at NC State
KS +11.5 vs Oklahoma
Louisville +7 at Wake
Ark +18 at Georgia
Wisconsin -1.5 vs Michigan (hope I'm wrong)
October 1st, 2021 at 9:12 AM ^
Think I may take Wisconsin too...just to hedge my emotions/money
October 1st, 2021 at 10:15 AM ^
I had a ton of free bets I needed to use so I put them all on Wisconsin ML early in the week when it was -105.
I have put myself in an emotionally safe spot.
I love Maryland tonight +3.5.
Totally agree with the OP on BC with all those points. That will take like 30 possessions for Clemson to cover even if they shut out BC.
October 1st, 2021 at 12:14 PM ^
I also put 4 units on Wisconsin when it was a pick em. Hope I’m wrong.
October 1st, 2021 at 1:42 PM ^
Yup, I put a couple free bets on Wisconsin -1. Sadly, my gut says it's easy money. I'm also thinking of taking the under.
Wisconsin's D is tailor-made to stop Michigan, and I'm not sold on our interior DL being able to stand up against the run. This is one we lose, I think. There's no shame in that, though. The D has a new scheme and is trying to fill in recruiting holes. I think our D will be a lot better next year.
October 1st, 2021 at 8:36 AM ^
PSU -10.5
Army -6.5
Ark @ UGA u48.5
Oregon -7.5
Washington ML +118
I got Army and PSU earlier this week but I would still take PSU up to 14 and Army up to 10.
October 1st, 2021 at 1:17 PM ^
I like this card. It's a good looking card. I might get one just like it.
October 1st, 2021 at 5:05 PM ^
Nice line grab on Army -6.5 I just bet it at -9.5 but I personally still think that's valuable.
I got Arkansas/ Georgia under 48.5 also
October 1st, 2021 at 8:42 AM ^
KSU is Smooth Jimmy's ? of the Week
October 1st, 2021 at 9:12 AM ^
I side with comrade on this one
October 1st, 2021 at 10:05 AM ^
When you're right 52% of the time, you're wrong 48% of the time.
October 1st, 2021 at 9:09 AM ^
we've reached the stage of the season, i think where how we win doesn't matter. Short of NW, there isn't a scrub left on the schedule. So.. Lets Hawaii this bitch and get to 5-0!
Surprised you like MSU -10.5. WKU has played well so far this year and should put up points.
October 1st, 2021 at 9:56 AM ^
I would think the MSU game looks like an over game all the way.
October 1st, 2021 at 1:18 PM ^
I believe I saw that WKY has gone over all three games by an average of 14.8 points. Hmm...
October 1st, 2021 at 9:11 AM ^
I got $40 in free money last week on Fanduel so naturally I took it out back and set it on fire.
4 parlays, 2 college, 2 NFL.
I had the Cardinals winning ever quarter/half in their game vs the Jags. I would've won except the kick 6 right before half by the Jags.
Also had the Cards covering, Titans, Bucs & Cowboys all covering. Bucs lost obviously.
In College I had: UGA, ARK & Louisville covering...won 67.56 on a $10 bet.
MY last bet I had Penn St & MSU covering...neither did. I had the over in UM/Rutgers and TAMU/ARK...0 for 4 lol.
Bet 40, won 67.
Iowa -3.5 at Maryland anyone?
FSU is -5.5 hosting Syracuse....yeesh...not sure.
I do like that Clemson number. Their offense is POO POO
Indiana at PSU -12.5 I think PSU gets revenge for last years game
I like OSU covering at Rutgers
Coastal Carolina is putting up big numbers this year too
NIU -1.5 hosting EMU
Notre Dame...a home dog vs CIncy? I'm all over that. Cincy does not look like a team with high end talent. They looked small even compared to Indiana. This is my pick of the week!
Kansas St is tough this year...home dog (+12) to Oklahoma
Uconn @ Vandy -14.5 I mean, someone has to win right?
Auburn at LSU -3
Miss St at TAMU -7
GA Southern just fired their coach...home fav over Ark St
Fresno St at Hawaii +10.5
October 1st, 2021 at 11:35 AM ^
Notre Dame...a home dog vs CIncy? I'm all over that. Cincy does not look like a team with high end talent. They looked small even compared to Indiana. This is my pick of the week!
A couple things on ND. First, their 4-0 record is highly deceiving; they could/should be 2-2 or even 1-3, with Purdue the only win they truly earned (i.e. not fluky as hell or escaped by the skin of their teeth). Second, they're potentially down to their 3rd string QB. Their backup was already out injured, and Coan left the game last week and didn't come back. It's funny, you have ND as your pick of the week, and I'd have Cinci as my lock.
October 1st, 2021 at 12:02 PM ^
I know, I know...but I really don't like Cincinnati. They had a bye, and early byes typically aren't kind. They were losing to a horrible Indiana team until Micah McFadden was booted. When I watched them vs Indiana, I didn't think they looked like a P5 team. FWIW Hartsock and his cohost on SXM Big Ten Radio echoed that they looked a little undersized and slow compared to Indiana. And it's at ND? Road dogs are good bets to cover.
October 1st, 2021 at 11:38 AM ^
I like your Cincy/ND pick of the week. I agree that Cincy gets exposed this week. ND is going to win outright (I feel unclean stating that based on my deep hatred of ND)
October 1st, 2021 at 9:18 AM ^
M -114 is basically setting money on fire.
October 1st, 2021 at 10:08 AM ^
The only thing giving me any confidence is how absolutely awful Mertz is playing right now.
October 1st, 2021 at 10:12 AM ^
It seems like the more awful a QB is, the more he torches us.
October 1st, 2021 at 11:21 AM ^
Yeah, nothing better for a struggling O than a Michigan D.
October 1st, 2021 at 11:42 AM ^
Username checks out. ¿Quemar los pesos?
October 1st, 2021 at 9:22 AM ^
Cashed on a tiny 5 game parlay (one was a draw), and missed on my main one. My confidence in Texas Tech was sorely misplaced.
This week:
Purdue -2.5 vs Minnesota- Minnesota is terrible, and Purdue can throw.
Arkansas +18 at Georgia- Noon game, hoping the crowd isn't too into it- Arkansas has the best player on the field with their QB and is playing great ball.
Akron +9.5 vs Ohio- It's a MAC game- these are so incredibly random- give me the home team and the points
Bowling Green +16.5 at Kent State- I'm confused about this. Bowling Green, top to bottom, is a better team. Maybe Vegas knows something I don't?
Boston College +14.5 at Clemson- I missed getting this at 16, but I don't think it matters. Clemson can't score, and BC is playing really well.
October 1st, 2021 at 9:29 AM ^
I'd stay away from the Michigan game. Both teams are batshit crazy.
I like OSU and MSU with the points.
I've never, ever hit on a parlay. Godspeed.
October 1st, 2021 at 9:40 AM ^
I'm always one game off.
I will get 5/6, 4/5, etc.
I think the strategy now is to drop it to 3/4 games that I have supreme confidence in.
That'll work, right!?
October 1st, 2021 at 10:07 AM ^
my hit rate is low but its a hell of a rush when you do...
October 1st, 2021 at 9:43 AM ^
took Bama to cover (Ole Miss is a good team, but I saw Saban had some words for Kiffin in the media which makes me think he's going for blood).
Also took a meager bet for Arkansas with the points, this will be the week that we see if they are for real, for real. I stayed away from ND and Cinci, mostly because I don't think we have any idea if either team is legitimate Top 10 or an 8-4 B1G level team.
I also like Kansas St. to cover against OU. Not quite sure what to do with Iowa @ Maryland, although my gut tells me to take the points with Maryland at home.
Should be some fun ones this weekend! Ole Miss @ Bama definitely has me intrigued.
October 1st, 2021 at 10:16 AM ^
I can't figure out Iowa/Maryland either. I'd take Maryland if it wasn't for how poor they looked against Illinois. I might take the under but I'm sick of dying a slow death on unders.
October 1st, 2021 at 11:18 AM ^
Yeah, under feels like it might be a good bet. I think Iowa is pretty pedestrian if they're not forcing turnovers. That defense is legit, but their offense has been the benefactor of a lot of short fields. We saw that CSU could hang with them when their opponent isn't turning the ball over.
That said, they are pretty good at forcing turnovers, and that seems like a pretty Maryland thing to do.
October 1st, 2021 at 9:43 AM ^
BC and points all day. Personally I think BC wins the game straight up.
October 1st, 2021 at 9:50 AM ^
ULM to upset CC that's the pick everyone is overlooking
October 1st, 2021 at 9:57 AM ^
I’m taking MSU-10.5.
Rutgers isn’t an easy out for OSU. The spread as of right now is 15. I’m taking the points.
October 1st, 2021 at 10:28 AM ^
My picks this week;
ND on the money line - just think they have more talent than Cincinnati, plus they are at home.
Under on the Bama/Miss - game is crazy high at 80.
Minnesota on the money line - I know they just lost to BG, but they are a better team than Purdue.
LSU -3 - Auburn does not know who their QB is.
Under on the MSU/WKU - @ 64.5, remind yourself, they only had 1 first down in the second half also plus their D line should get to WKU QB.
October 1st, 2021 at 12:06 PM ^
Not saying it will end up over, but Bama and Ole Miss scored 111 points last year and the Ole Miss offense looks even better this year.
October 1st, 2021 at 10:29 AM ^
Going Clemson ats (only because the public is all over it)
Maryland SU
app st -10
Kansas St SU
October 1st, 2021 at 10:31 AM ^
OT: NFL action -
Tom Brady +2.5 TD Passes
Jameis Winston +199 passing yards
October 1st, 2021 at 11:48 AM ^
Only win last week was UGA -35.5
My one parlay was looking great, Louisville covered, UTSA won outright, Ark won outright, and Buffalo -14 was up 35-7 at half. Mo Linguist decided that was enough and winning 35-34 was the way to go.
The rest would be a long list of losses.
This week:
Army -6.5 over Ball State
Ark +18
Michigan +110 ML
Old Dom/UTEP over 48.5
Over/Under Parlay
WKU/MSU over 60
Ark St/GSU over 65
TTU/WVU over 56
Lane Train/Bama over 77
Put a paltry amount on a longshot parlay (+10520)
IU over PSU +330
Lane Train over Bama +475
KSU over OU +330
October 1st, 2021 at 1:00 PM ^
Woof. Rough week to post my worst picks last week. 1-4 last week. Thought MSU and Mich would cover. Didn't give either Nebraska or Rutgers enough respect.
I'll probably look at taking Arkansas, Wisconsin, and Maryland. I want to lay the points for Alabama but would love if they could get down to 14 or less.
Similar thing with OSU. We should have covered against Rutgers except that we just decided to not throw the ball last week. OSU will not run into 9 man boxes all day with the talent they have at WR. I also don't trust Rutgers offensively still.
October 1st, 2021 at 3:30 PM ^
I would never bet against my beloved Wolverines, however...
If I was a non-partisan and I am in Vegas today or tomorrow morning, I would put $100 on Wisconsin and take the points (most casinos in Vegas are at Wisc -2 right now.) If Wisconsin wins, it's gonna be by more than Wisc -2, that's for certain.
If Wisc gets the momentum at any point in the game, UM will never get it back. Hence, I believe the most likely outcome of such a situation is Wisc wins by far more than two points.
October 1st, 2021 at 4:04 PM ^
I like the underdogs this week against the big boys -- Ole Miss and Arkansas.
I like Michigan to win outright.
And my money will be on Maryland to win outright tonight.
October 1st, 2021 at 5:02 PM ^
last week record 4-3. Season record 12-15.
LSU -3.5
Indiana/Penn St under 53.5
Mississippi St +7
UAB -2
LaTech +21
Army -9.5
Nevada +7
Arkansas./Georgia Under 48.5
October 2nd, 2021 at 1:16 AM ^
I’m guilty of betting the favorites too often, but this weekend I’m taking the points. I like Arkansas +17, Rutgers +15, and Boston College +17. I think all three have a shot at winning straight up.
For you gamblers out there, if you bet the opposites, there’s a high probability you’ll go 3-0 based on my track record.