UM moves up to #7 in SP+
This is paywalled behind ESPN+ (those guys got me to subscribe w/ the UFC)
SP+ is a predictive metric based upon efficiency. It doesn't represent past performance but is used to predict future performance based on how efficient each side of the team is.
Teams of Note (B1G + Opponents):
OSU @ #1
Wiscy @ #6
UM @ #7
PSU @ #10
Iowa @ #19
Nebraska @ #20
MSU @ #21
Minn @ #23
Maryland @ #33
Purdue @ #40
IU @ #56
Washington @ #62
Rutgers @ #65
NU @ #79
WMU @ #86
Illinois @ #87
NIU @ #106
A few notes:
OSU is good. Their offense is #1 in the country. I'd like to stop thinking about this now.
Wisconsin's ranking is almost solely having the #1 defense in the country. A problem with this kind of metric is that it doesn't take into account how balance affects team performance.
PSU's offense is cratering. Week 5 (before Iowa and their QB injury) they had the #23 offense, and now they have the #49 offense. They're likely only ranked this high because they still have a top 10 defense. See note about Wisky to understand why that may be misleading and inflate their overall ranking.
MSU has a similar profile to UM but is worse in all categories. They're significantly worse on offense (UM #22/MSU #53).
October 24th, 2021 at 4:49 PM ^
I predict that next week will be a nail biter and winner will come down to last minute FG. Both sides of the ball will falter in typical Michigan fashion and many bad words will be shouted towards the TV and things flung across the room. The dog will run away and hide for a few hours thinking I am Doctor Fauci and family members will probably want me to leave before the half. Besides that, I am sure I will enjoy the game.
October 24th, 2021 at 5:07 PM ^
Did both sides of the ball "falter" in 2019? Yeesh people seem to only remember last year's covid weirdness upset. I expect a close game but if Michigan continues to execute on the lines and Josh Ross plays his game, defense will be in a great spot.
October 24th, 2021 at 6:18 PM ^
2019 was the dying gasp of the Dantonio era. Mel is young and hungry. He seems to have done a good job of rebuilding the smoking crater Mork left. The sample size is still pretty small, so I plan on being extremely nervous.
October 24th, 2021 at 8:33 PM ^
Yeah he's been solid. But to act like playing in east Lansing is too big a stage for Jim Harbaugh is ludicrous. He's won there 3 times. His losses have been at Michigan and 1 was fluke and another was completely weather related.
October 25th, 2021 at 8:36 AM ^
Michigan won there in 2016 and 2018. That is the only two times Michigan has played in EL since Harbaugh was hired. 2-0 on the road and 1-3 at home *fart noise*.
October 25th, 2021 at 9:25 AM ^
Yeah, and of those 3, one is a freak L, and the other two had terrible QB's
October 25th, 2021 at 7:53 AM ^
Are you joking? In 2019 - the team was fired the F up because of the pregame situations.
Why do UM fans take credit away from the team? UM went in prepared, and the pregame march only pissed them off more. Instead you sit back and say Dan Antonio lost the game for State vs Saying UM WON?
Fuck Mel Tucker - is he young and hungry? We dont know, but hes not going to eat next saturday.
October 24th, 2021 at 4:53 PM ^
Is Clemson still #4? ?
October 24th, 2021 at 8:10 PM ^
October 25th, 2021 at 11:30 AM ^
It does factor in recruiting. It's a good predictor of success.
October 25th, 2021 at 8:42 AM ^
Yes, and 4-3 Florida sits at #5.
The top 5 in SP+ have records of 6-1, 7-0, 7-1, 4-3, 4-3, 4-3. Then Michigan.
October 25th, 2021 at 9:35 AM ^
So I listen to Bill Connelly explain his rankings when he does his weekly interview with the Solid Verbal guys. I was considering posting last week to tell everyone to listen because he is extremely transparent, quite intelligent, and he's fun to listen to.
HIs ranking take into account preseason rankings. A few years back he thought he should take them out after a few weeks of data into the season but he talked to a few guys he knew who were experts in the field and they said to leave them in, because it will provide a more accurate picture, from a numbers perspective, long term.
The other thing is that Clemson's defense is apparently VERY good, and their very bad offense is being propped up. He talked about a couple other teams that were ranked too high, or too low and the SV guys ask great questions.
Give it a listen, I highly recommend. Gives some insight into the rankings.
https://www.solidverbal.com/2021/10/22/chaos-scenarios-aac-expansion-bill-connelly-from-espn/
October 25th, 2021 at 11:31 AM ^
Preseason is still like 40% of the ranking.
October 24th, 2021 at 4:56 PM ^
PSU also just gave up a bazillion rushing yards to Bielema's power rushing attack, which is probably due to the season-ending injury of their best lineman. Regarding MSU, their offense has completely vanished against the two decent defenses they faced this year. Great sign for us.
October 24th, 2021 at 7:08 PM ^
Unfortunately for us a bazillion yards only netted Illinois 13 points in regulation. We will try to put up just as many yards but will need to score more points than that. Won’t be an easy out, I’m hoping OSU breaks their spirit (if OSU wins).
October 24th, 2021 at 8:59 PM ^
Illinois did the Illinois thing and coughed up 3 turnovers. Those tend to turn yards of offense into zero points. We’ve been good holding onto the ball this year. Need to do that vs. MSU.
October 24th, 2021 at 9:04 PM ^
Sure, but lucky for us, Cade isn't Artur Sitkowski. People complain about him, but he's a solid B1G quarterback. Sitkowski is a high school JV kid.
October 25th, 2021 at 8:50 AM ^
On the other hand, Illinois also had 2 TD's called back in a really ridiculous sequence that went something like:
Illinois at the PSU 15, screen pass for a TD. Called back due to offensive PI.
Illinois backed up to the 30, 15 yard personal foul penalty on PSU.
Illinois back at the 15, ran for a TD, called back due to another penalty, settled for a FG.
October 25th, 2021 at 9:36 AM ^
I think PSU was looking ahead...I expect them to give OSU a fight, albeit in a loss.
October 24th, 2021 at 5:09 PM ^
Michigan state's third leading receiver basically mirrors Michigan's leading receiver (Johnson) in stats (excluding TDs caught). Not surprising I guess. Michigan's rushing output is about 350 yards greater then msu on the season.
October 25th, 2021 at 10:13 AM ^
UM and MSU are very similar in points per play.
UM gives up 4.82 yards per play defensively MSU 4.87
UM gains 6.30 ypp MSU gains 6.96
ypg is even tighter MSU 451.7 vs 442.9 (UM has faced tougher competition)
The big difference is number of plays and Time of possession. Michigan is 12th in TOP MSU 115.
In the last 3 games Michigan has averaged 81 offensive plays a game MSU 66.
That difference in # of plays and TOP has resulted in MSU giving up 850 more total yards 2093 to MSU's 2845 And MSU has given up more than 100 yards/game UM 299 to MSU 407
October 24th, 2021 at 5:12 PM ^
So, you're saying UM's going 11-1? In all honesty that's the only scenario I don't mind getting blown out by OSU and not being a playoff caliber team ever...is if we beat everyone else because that's what we should do based on talent...or at least be 50/50 with PSU and beat everyone else. But, I'm over this .500 with MSU & Wiscy nonsense.
October 24th, 2021 at 7:07 PM ^
The bizarre sense of entitlement, even magical thinking here. . . as if they were playing to massage your ego alone?
October 25th, 2021 at 7:45 AM ^
Generally speaking if you more talent than another team you should win. There are several other factors like team vs starters talent, injuries to key positions, starting QB play, coaching & development, etc. but overall it's a pretty good metric. If you look at the team talent composite you'll find Bama, OSU, & UGA are in the top 3. They represent #1, #3, and #5 respectively in the polls and are all likely to make the playoffs. The big underachiever right now is LSU and the big overachievers are Cincy, MSU & Iowa. UM, ND, & Oregon are also quite high on both ranking systems. I'd be surprised if all the playoff teams are not in the top 10 of the team talent rankings unless Cincy sneaks in. So, to circle back to UM, it's fair to expect a loss to OSU most years and going .500 against PSU, but generally speaking beating the rest of the conference regularly based on team talent. They certainly should not be .500 against MSU. If not that points to some other issue.
October 24th, 2021 at 5:21 PM ^
His ratings don’t pass the eye test this year…
1. Ohio State
2. Georgia
3. Alabama
4. Clemson ??????
5. Florida ?????
6. Wisconsin ?????
7. Michigan
8. Texas A&M ???
9. Pitt ?????
10. Penn State ?????
October 24th, 2021 at 5:49 PM ^
The beauty of football is that a team is not a static, fixed, measureable quantities that can simply be rammed up against another quantity and differentiated.
Teams can (or cannot) adapt, modify, change, overcome, through playcalling, deception, combined and individual efforts, that are hidden, unaccounted for, and not-yet-presented, in the noise of statistics.
October 24th, 2021 at 6:36 PM ^
I don't know about #9, but Pitt is damn good.
October 24th, 2021 at 6:39 PM ^
Based on what? Their loss to WMU?
October 24th, 2021 at 7:01 PM ^
Yeah I don't know that I would go as far to say Pitt, as a team, is "damn good".
Their quarterback Kenny Pickett is having a really good year, and he looks like he is emerging as a legitimate high draft prospect. That might be what the post was referring to. The rest of the team, at least from my admittedly limited observations of them, is that they are very Pitt-like.
October 24th, 2021 at 11:54 PM ^
They just beat Clemson pretty convincingly and they beat a decent Tennessee team on the road. Their only loss is to WMU, which isn't a good loss but I don't feel quite as bad about how we looked against them as I did at the time.
Pitt looks like the best team in the ACC to this point. That's pretty good.
October 24th, 2021 at 6:47 PM ^
SP+ is supposed to be an alternative to the usual "power rankings" that don't look beyond polls, W-L records, the occasional head-to-head result, and fuzzily defined strength of schedule impressions -- not corroboration of them. The so-called eye test helped build Las Vegas. It would have told you to bet on NC St, Okie St, and Purdue yesterday.
October 25th, 2021 at 11:33 AM ^
If those 6 don't deserve to be in the top 10, who do you put in over them?
October 24th, 2021 at 5:38 PM ^
Thankfully, this rating systems formula has nothing to do with self-driving cars.
October 24th, 2021 at 5:40 PM ^
Wisconsin #6 is a bit problematic.
October 24th, 2021 at 5:51 PM ^
I don't know how next week will go, but Sparty is WAY overrated in my estimation. Worst passing defense in the big ten and second to last overall just in front of northwestern in terms of yards allowed.
They thrive on big plays. You take this away from them, we win easily.
October 24th, 2021 at 6:13 PM ^
But we’re not exactly a pass heavy team and our defense has been prone to giving up some big plays. Add in the rivalry factor and being on the road and it should be a tough one.
Do I think Michigan has the ability to win comfortably? I do. Do I expect that? I don’t.
October 24th, 2021 at 10:11 PM ^
That "pass defense" state is completely skewed by playing Western Kentucky who only throws the ball. Their pass defense isn't good, but its the result of playing WKU and being out to big leads in most of their games.
October 24th, 2021 at 11:08 PM ^
You back out of the wku game, they have 251 ypg in pass defense instead of 285. Which moves them ahead to 13 instead of 14th. That's only one YPG better than Illinois.
They should have lost against Nebraska and Indiana and Miami, which wasn't a game they ran away with had nearly 400 yards in passing themselves.
They're pass defense is still shitty.
October 25th, 2021 at 12:22 AM ^
Agreed, but here's the thing, they ALWAYS give 110% effort (and are a VERY dirty team--you would think, due to the rivalry that OSU would be the dirtiest team we face, but it's actually something I respect OSU gentlemanly when compared to MSU)
For whatever reason (and they have a new coach now, so maybe that quirk is gone, but otherwise) MSU saves their best football of the year for us, year in year out.
It's always a rock fight.
October 25th, 2021 at 9:29 AM ^
It's always a rock fight.
Not really. Michigan rolled them in 2019. Is it more often a rock fight than not? Yeah, but our fanbase gets way too tight about this game. In reality, the range of outcomes is pretty similar to playing Wisconsin -- though one could argue even better, as Wisconsin has blown us out, whereas MSU has never won by more than a score (and never even a TD, at that)
October 24th, 2021 at 6:32 PM ^
No need to post any ranking that has Wisconsin in the top 10.
October 24th, 2021 at 6:54 PM ^
if Wisconsin is ranked ahead of Michigan then I don’t see how SP+ is predictive
October 24th, 2021 at 7:29 PM ^
Yeah he should sort out head-to-head results. A&M should be ahead of Alabama. Mississippi State should be ahead of A&M. Alabama should be ahead of Mississippi Sta... oh wait...
Sometimes teams play up on certain days and others play poorly. Also, poll-thinking has made us focus on rankings too much instead of ratings. The truth is that there's very little separation after the top three teams, and most advanced metrics reflect this logjam of 15-20 teams that are very closely rated
October 24th, 2021 at 7:01 PM ^
That Top 10 has some issues. Does he take into account actual wins and losses in his formula at all? Seeing Clemson and Wisconsin ahead of us doesn't make a lot of sense. I don't care if their defenses are highly ranked as they are both 4-3 and we've beaten Wisconsin!
October 24th, 2021 at 7:32 PM ^
Nope. It's yards per play based and doesn't especially care about turnovers (because the smart money is that turnovers are not random and not consistent...which is true given good QBs) which is why Wisconsin sucks in reality.
October 24th, 2021 at 7:41 PM ^
Still doesn't pass the smell test to me. Must be a weird year for this as it's usually not this far out of whack with wins and losses.
October 24th, 2021 at 8:01 PM ^
Clemson is bizarre. Computers still like their defense. I don't know why and don't understand. It's fine. But that offense is absolutely god awful.
Wisconsin makes sense from a computer perspective because their defense is so good and their problem offensively (purely by stats) is red zone and turnovers. They outgain their opponents by 140 yards per game about the same as us and our S&P rankings are similar. But Wisconsin's played a tougher schedule so gets the bump over us. I can logic that one out even though we beat them fairly easily.
October 25th, 2021 at 10:51 AM ^
I think the discounting turnovers is one of the biggest flaws in SP+ and post game win expectancy. I understand trying to take "true" or "pure offense/defense only" data out of the chaos that is football, but turnovers are a huge part of football and having a lot of them is a sign of not being very good at certain parts of football. It would be like taking all fielding errors out of a baseball fancy stat, which they might do and might actually work because the volume of plays, games, etc. in baseball are probably sufficient to ignore things like that. Turnovers have too big of an impact on football to be ignored.
October 24th, 2021 at 7:04 PM ^
Interesting stats. Right now, just glad we are ahead of Sparty.
October 24th, 2021 at 8:11 PM ^
There's an alternate rating that's kind of interesting which is "what is your scoring margin compared to the expected margin of the average top 5 team against your schedule?" And that top 8 makes a bit more sense:
1. Georgia 12.1 points per game better
2. Ohio State +9.1
3. Alabama +7.6
4. Michigan +2.8
5. Cincy +0.3
6. Pitt -0.6
7. Mississippi -3.5
8. Iowa -4.3
Couple teams of note:
14. Wake -8
23 (!) Oklahoma -10.2
I don't have insider so can't check where MSU is for example, but interesting.
But this tracks more with what we're seeing.