Tough Schedule ?
Is the schedule really that tough?? I understand that there are 6- 10 win teams from last year and, 5- top 20 teams BUT here's my theory-
1. Win your home games! That takes Wisconsin and psu out.
2. Split msu / osu- Michigan has more talent on the roster for the NFL draft than both programs for 2019 and better recruiting rankings than msu by far.
3. To hell with ND.
4. In this scenario Michigan could go 10-2 win the BT east and go to the championship game. If Michigan wins that, BT CHAMPS! Most likely a final 4 and a great season.
So is it a tough Schedule? Heck Yeah! But that schedule should get Michigan in the final 4, and if you break it down just win your home games and steal 1 on the road.
5. My prediction- 12-3. Championship game loss
I hope you’re right and I’m wrong...but I think I’m right
If we are going to lose twice I think the best would be to lose in a very close game to Wisconsin and then beat them in the championship game by 10+. Just go 12-1 and win the championship and ensure a playoff spot (#1?).
I think it's actually best to lose to a lesser opponent, so long as that loss isn't the absolute curbstomping Iowa gave to OSU.
Mobile site is doing that thing again where I post and then it takes me to the last page. Really hope they're getting on this since HTTV is done. Seriously how hard is that to fix? I thought this site has the same template as a lot of others. Not like they're charting new territory.
Depends on QB play. 3 losses prob realistic but I am thinking we run the table this year.
Tough schedules aren’t an excuse. Elite programs win the games in front of them. If UM wants to be considered amongst that group, they have their chance this year.
August 1st, 2018 at 12:23 AM ^
What elite program has played a schedule this tough in recent memory? Alabama is the elite of the elite and they play cupcakes in the OOC and half the SEC is garbage. The only ones that jump to my mind are ND when they went to the national championship game (but that was the exception to the rule of their annually murderous schedule biting them in the butt), and Clemson. It could be said that elite programs don't play tough schedules, or that Clemson is the only elite program by your logic.
August 1st, 2018 at 12:44 AM ^
Does 1997 count as recent memory?
'97 was the surprise team. After 2 years of 8-4 records no one was predicting LC would go undefeated. If I remember correctly most thought OSU would win the conference and Michigan would be 2nd place. But like this years team Michigan had a great defense and the offense played well enough and scored enough points to win every game. I think it is possible this season to win every game but even if this team loses 2 to 3 games they will be a much better unit then the 2017 team.
I'll allow it.
Its a very tough schedule. Michigan hasn't won a ranked road game since 2006. The offensive line is still a question mark, and the qb is still unproven.
Now this isn't to say Michigan cannot win 12 games and go to the playoff, its just saying there is a lot of work in front of them and a lot of things need to go right.
Wasn't that the game where they smacked Notre dame by like 30 points
August 1st, 2018 at 12:30 AM ^
If 2006 is indeed the last season (and wow, is that sobering), then you have the correct game, yes.
Thats really sad when you think about it. Its been so long since we have fielded a consistent elite team. Harbaugh has them on the right track I believe this is the deepest and most talented team they've had in terms of potential since 2004
2016 was a pretty deep squad with beter high-end proven talent in my opinion.
Hopefully by mid-season we'll have more high-end proven talent. At least we play the teams for it early this season.
I mentioned this in another thread, but I hate the “location” of Wisconsin on the schedule. I really wish we played any other team before MSU.
From being friends with a few football players back in college to hearing various interviews, Wisconsin always seems to be the most physical B1G team. I’ve heard guys say they simply don’t heal after Wisconsin, and I hate the idea of playing an incredibly physical game against MSU the following week.
I think we are more talented than MSU, but I also think our players’ bodies might be more beat up heading into that game. It really sucks to admit, but I think we drop it...and just hope not too many guys are dinged up for PSU the following week.
sparty plays at psu the week we are at home v. wisc. they will have their work cut out for them too. i'd say we have a slight advantage in that respect given that we'll be home, no travel needed.
This is a fantastic point, though on the other hand, Michigan is traditionally MSU's Super Bowl. They'll be repping Michigan plays during that Penn State practice.
I'd bet money State loses to PSU and then gives us a hell of a game with a bunch of new stuff. We better win that damn game.
I'd be willing to bet Harbaugh will have something extra up his sleeve for MSU this year. Like he spends an hour every day watching film and game planning just for that game. He knows he has to have that one. I actually believe he did that last for OSU--his game plan was tremendous but we just couldn't get a goddamn thing from the QB that day.
Ehh i dont necessarily buy that. We played at wisconsin last year with the buckeyes the following week and we seemed fine. Granted we were home against osu but we weren't physically outmatched by them. We were in that game the whole way.
August 1st, 2018 at 12:34 AM ^
If we're undefeated going into that Wisconsin game, which would mean wins against ND, NW, and PSU, I honestly would prefer we spent half the week on MSU.
You have to win the division to win a conference title. A loss to Wisconsin in that scenario would not matter one bit in terms of making the playoff as long as M goes on to win the division. So at that point, heavy focus should be on MSU and OSU.
August 1st, 2018 at 12:47 AM ^
Sorry, correction: PSU is after MSU. I still stand by the general point of emphasizing divisional games.
I agree, the schedule looks daunting in the off-season but some teams will over/under perform expectations. After reading HTTV I don't see any of non-top teams over-performing expectations, (Maryland should be better but their QB play is still a mess and Durkin still hasn't sorted out their D, similar situation for NW and Nebraska, Indiana is no longer Chaos Team!)
But it wouldn't shock me if some teams in our 5 tough games under-perform. The case could be made that MSU's offense may limit Lewerke's runs and their weak safeties could be exploited, their talent level may have hit its ceiling or Lewerke gets hurt again. Wimbush's accuracy may not progress and ND could easily be mediocre. PSU may really miss Morehead and Barkley plus they're replacing their whole secondary and do we really trust Franklin as an in-game coach.
I don't see Wiscy or OSU under-performing expectations but there's always a chance that our schedule will end up being more manageable than it looks now.
I think this is an overlooked point. IOU +1
August 1st, 2018 at 12:45 AM ^
So you're not counting Northwestern in the "top" group? They won, what, 10 games last year? They should be pretty good, even if they take a step back from 10 wins to 8ish.
Also, Nebraska is going to go to a bowl and I wouldn't be surprised if they won 7 games next year. They won't be chopped liver.
So while I agree that one of MSU or PSU will probably have a 7 or 8 win season, I think a couple other teams in M's schedule will get up to that total as well.
I'm not counting NW in the top group mainly because it's not a truly hostile road game, Thorson may not be healthy and even with him last year their offense was in the 70's in S&P+. NW will be tough against the run but their secondary is weak and they have no pass rush. I'd give us 85% chance to win @NW. 2017 Michigan would have been 11-1 in the Big Ten West
Nebraska's defense was ranked 100+ in S&P+ last year, their biggest strength is at WR which I trust our CBs to shut down. At home I also count that as 85%+ win for the good guys.
I agree someone in the Big Ten West will win 8+ games other than Wiscy, I'm just confident U-M will beat both of them.
Oh yeah...if we split the Michigan State and Ohio State road games! Since Michigan has not beaten an Ohio State team, coached by a real coach since Lloyd Carr, why would you include them in a split? Maybe we split Notre Dame and Michigan State on the road, but don’t throw Ohio State in your “split”...that is being a super myopic Michigan fan.
Michigan has had an incredible chance to win the last 2 games vs osu. With Patterson at QB the past 2 years Michigan most likely goes 2-0 vs osu in that span. QB is the only thing holding Michigan back, forget LT you can work around it.
Incredible chance = Loss
On paper Patterson looks like a stud...but I am not going to predict a QB that has never played a single game for Michigan is going to go 2-0 against Ohio State.
If only OSU wasn't the first game of the year...
That's in the past. We're speculating on what is to come, we already know what happened in the past.
Michigan has a good team this year. They've been blown out twice since Harbaugh got here. Haven't won the big ones but it's getting closer. Those highly ranked recruits are about to emerge.
You want to say maybe 9-4 instead of 10-3? Fine, but I would trade that for the chance to watch them kick everybodys' ass, which they have.
Every season since 2007 has been in the past. Heat every year we lose to Ohio State except the one year they were coached by an interim coach. If you are a roulette table and it keeps landing on red...you could lose a lot of money if you bet on black thinking you are due. It will eventually change, but until it does, I am not prognosticating that Patterson is going 2-0 against Ohio State. I want to see how he does against a directional school first.
F this new formatting that doesn’t let you edit your posts. ?
Uh sure but you don't also bet on red because you think it's hot. I mean that is how people often bet, it's just dumb.
Think we can all agree on hating the lack of an edit function though.
If you buy the S&P+ expected win percentages, which give M a 45 percent chance of beating MSU and a 26 percent chance of beating OSU - both very reasonable expectations and maybe even overly pessimistic - then they do have a better chance of splitting those two games than losing them both.
So the probabilistic expectation is actually that M will split them.
HOWEVER, when you also include the probability of beating ND on the road, you're still looking at one in three of those tough road games as the expectation. They'll need to outperform and steal two of those to have a chance at the playoffs. It's about time they do that.
How many years are we gonna throw out the better recruiting rankings argument for MSU and except it to mean something? When have recruiting rankings ever mattered in that game lately? Dantonio got a hapless 3 win team to play within 9 of us in 2016, meanwhile all of our hapless teams were blown out by them. He always has them jacked, and they return most of their team. It will all come down to who has the better game plan, that's it.
Ok, I'll give you recruit rankings, but what about NFL draft projections ...
UM needs to start hating. MSU is more emotionally invested and it gives them an edge. They've brought it more than UM in recent times. If UM doesn't win this season, I'll will be forced to admit they own us.
Its time to win. UM hasn't finished in the top 5 since 1999. They are 3-16 vs OSU and MSU in the past decade.
Tough schedule, however this is the year we finally win the B1G. It’s time for Harbaugh to get us there and win the damn thing. No more excuses. It’s time.
If you completely ignore the reality of our away record against teams ranked in the top 20 since Harbaugh got here then no, not though at all.
If you believe as I do though historical results can be a semi-accurate poll prediction for the future then we're sort of.... fucked.
Yeah...I haven’t seen much in the past 10 years to suggest we can win an important road game. If we do actually beat ND, my excitement level for this season will rise exponentially. If we play at ND like we have played at every other venue, zoinks...
August 1st, 2018 at 12:21 AM ^
We've played 3 road games against top 20 teams by my count since Harbaugh got here (2016 OSU, 2017 OSU/PSU) . Literally zero happened with healthy starting QBs. It's entirely possible we lose those games this year, but I don't think Harbaugh's record in those games since we got here is particularly instructive.
August 1st, 2018 at 12:40 AM ^
I think you meant 2016 OSU and 2017 PSU/Wisconsin. Yes they only played 3 top 20 teams on the road.
lol ok
First thing I could think of....
"YOU PLAY FOOTBALL LIKE ED GENERRO PLAYED FOOTBALL. A guy who gave his life for this football team. He was a 140-pound halfback, and HE PLAYED LIKE A GODDAMN WILDMAN! NO! LIKE A GODDAMN RAMPAGING BEAST! "
Did Shea transfer here for us to have ANOTHER disappointing season where we lose clutch road games and go 50-50 against our rivals!?
Fuck the excuses, let’s just get it done.