Thursday's Rooting Guide - 'Win the Game' Edition
Well, looking at it through a 'glass half-full' perspective, THANK YOU BAMA! Last night's bubble games were....not ideal, outside of that Auburn loss. But as we've said for a while now, much of this is going to come down to Michigan earning their way in. They have a very real chance to get that much closer tonight. Before we look at tonight's games, let's recap last night & look at where Michigan stands this morning:
- I briefly mentioned it above but the Auburn loss leaves them in a difficult place. They only have 2 Quad-1 wins and finish the regular season against Tennessee. They've also lost 8 of their last 11 games. An early loss in the SEC tournament would leave them dangerously close to the bubble. With Utah St., yes that road win over UNLV helped their NET rankings but they're still 0-4 in Quad-1 games. Their game against Boise State this weekend is critical. If they lose that game, they have a lot of work to do in their conference tourney. They win, they get their first Quad-1 win of the season. And that Penn State/Northwestern game.....yea, that one hurt. Not much else to say.
- As of Bracket Matrix's update last night, the Last Four In are: West Virginia, Mississippi State, Arizona State, and Wisconsin. And the First Four Out are: Oklahoma State, North Carolina, Michigan, and Utah State. BUT Okie State is on 32 brackets. 21 of those haven't been updated since Monday, before their last loss. You do the math there.
- Sounds crazy to say but Michigan also finds itself in sole possession of 2nd place in the Big Ten after last night!
- Michigan is on 12 brackets as of last night. And our NET ranking moved back up to 54 this morning. Right behind: Oregon, North Texas, and College of Charleston. And right ahead of: Pittsburgh, Penn State, and Bradley. Lots of familiar names there.
Alright, let's dig into tonight's games:
- MICHIGAN (17-12, 11-7) at Illinois (19-10, 10-8) - (Illini by 4) - 7pm EST on ESPN - This is it, ladies and gents. The road gets much, much tougher if we lose this game. Torvik says win today and we have a 58% chance to make the tourney. Our odds drop to 9% if we lose (but go back up to 53% if we beat Indiana). So, not impossible after tonight but it requires either a win in Bloomington or at least two wins in Chicago at the BTT. GO BLUE!
- Lipscomb (20-12, 11-7) at Kennesaw St. (24-8, 15-3) - (KSU by 4.5) - 7pm on ESPN+ - Don't look now but a Michigan non-conference opponent is 2 wins away from getting into the tourney. Lipscomb has won 7 of their last 9 games & has a real shot tonight. Go Bison!
- Arizona State (20-9, 11-7) at UCLA (25-4, 16-2) - (UCLA by 11.5) - 9pm on ESPN - Outside of the Michigan game, these next 2 are the really critical ones. Arizona State was pretty close to falling off the bubble until their desperation 3 on Saturday. They're on 65 of 107 brackets on the Bracket Matrix. We need that to change. We want UCLA and UCLA big in this one. ASU ends the season at UCLA and at USC. We can't afford them to win either, frankly. Go Bruins!
- Purdue (24-5, 13-5) at Wisconsin (16-12, 8-10) - (Purdue by 4) - 9pm on FS1 - Goes without saying, we're big Purdue fans here. It's entirely likely that only one of Michigan & Wisconsin gets in. Wisconsin's last game is at Minnesota, so this is really their only game to gain some ground. Not much else to say except Boiler Up!
The Oregon - Cal game is another game of bubble implications but I refuse to dive into the numbers. Cal is 3-26 and literally one of the worst teams in college basketball this game. Oregon ain't losing that game.
So, there you have it folks. Win the game, get a bit more help tonight and we're in good shape. Lose tonight and Bloomington becomes a must-win unless we somehow make the Big Ten Finals. Not impossible but a very tough ask. Let's do the damn thing tonight! Go Blue!
TB9 - great work, as usual - thank you.
The line for Michigan v Illinois might be 5 points, in favor of the Illini - which projects a score of approximately 75-70. Hoping the Maize & Blue play fundamentally sound - low turnovers - and, the officiating is consistent. Those are big asks - I know. Hoping the team continues their movement without the ball - hits their open shots - and, provides new meaning to "Orange Crush" in Champaign.
Michigan is in the early slot - tipping off at / around 7:00 pm EST.
The two other B1G games are: Rutgers at Minnesota (also a 7:00 pm EST tip) and Purdue at Wisconsin - in the 9:00 pm EST spot..
Go B's - Bison, Bruins, Boilers, and Blue!
Go, Bisons, UCLA, and Purdue.
Go Blue!
Thank you for these, look forward to them every day.
Figuring out college basketball formulas is like counting goldfish for me, and my brain doesn't work that well anymore. I just want to be told whom to love and whom to hate for the night!
The formula for Michigan is:
Win 3 more games of any variety, IN.
Beat Illinois and Indiana on the road, IN.
Win one of the above, and then one in the BTT, sweating hard on Selection Sunday, at the complete mercy of the committee.
Win 1 more game of any variety, NIT.
I this is pretty accurate, but if Michigan splits the next 2 games that means they will have a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament. And then if they win their first BTT game that means they are in semi-finals and are a virtual lock for the NCAA tourney.
If they win 1, or even 0 games, of any variety they are NIT bound. They've already clinched at least their NIT bid.
I disagree that one win and a Friday win in the tournament makes them a lock. I think it was possible but we have not gotten a lot of breaks with other teams. I think that scenario makes them a coin flip.
I do think you're being overly negative about their chances. If they win one more game this regular season they're locked in as a top-4 seed in the BTT AND if they then win another game in the BTT (which will most likely be against a tourney team) there's little chance they'd be bypassed. Maybe it means they make a pit stop in Dayton but I'd be truly shocked, barring a massive number of upsets in conference tourneys, of Michigan being niped.
If we win one game at Illinois or Indiana, and one game in the Big Ten Tournament, we are IN.
We will have 13 Big Ten wins, 19 wins overall, an additional Q1 win most likely, and will be the second place Big Ten team. We will not be left out.
Just win, baby!
Go Blue!
Look, I hope that UM makes the tournament, and if it's only via other bubble team losses, so be it, but I'll be rooting for Purdue to lose until we're actual eliminated from WINNING THE BIG TEN (share).
Purdue is not going to lose both of these games. And if Wisconsin beats Purdue it is genuinely going to be pretty tough for Michigan to make the tournament. We have a log jam in front of us and we are not getting the breaks we need so far. I want Wisconsin to lose big.
I can understand & appreciate both sides of the argument here. But I'm with goblu330. Yes, sharing a title with Purdue would be pretty cool but the odds are so, so slim. I'd much prefer to make the tourney and our chances of that are greater with Wisconsin losses.
Purdue just lost three of four. There is absolutely a small but real chance they lose their last two. It's not strictly down to Michigan or Wisconsin to make the tournament either. If we both win our last two, there's a good chance for both. Someone on the bubble will lose. And how amazing would a share of a championship this year be!
Yeah it's a tough decision because Wisconsin is the worst. But that one is kind of oddly win-win for Michigan. If Purdue wins, that could hurt Wisconsin's chances and maybe bump them further off the bubble. But if Wisconsin wins, it's a weird consolation prize because it leaves the door open to Michigan winning a share. But, the latter is pretty unlikely and I hate Wisconsin's guts so Go Boilers!
But Wisconsin is not off the bubble right now, they are in the tournament right now.
If this is the last game of the season rooting for Wisconsin makes sense. But its not, Purdue has to lose both tonight and at home to Illinois while Michigan would also have to win both games. The probability of Purdue going 0-2 and Michigan going 2-0 has to be under 5%. Meanwhile if Purdue and Michigan win tonight the probability of Michigan making the tournament is at like 50%
According to Torvik's win probabilities it's just 0.47%. It ain't happening:
Purdue losing to Wisconsin tonight is 30%
Purdue losing to Illinois at home is 15%
Michigan beating Illinois tonight is 35%
Michigan beating IU is 30%
0.3*0.15*0.35*0.3 = 0.0047
But does Torvik calculate Tyler Wahl nut-punching Zach Edey and forcing him out of the 2nd half and entire Illinois game to recuperate?!
If we win it will be really tough to not root for wisconsin tonight...a win and a Purdue L gives us a sliver of hope at a share of a conference title!
I think that's fair and I agree with this. If we win tonight, rooting for Wisky could make sense. Rooting for them with a loss from us makes zero sense.
Boiler Up!
Oregon-Cal. Cal's net is around 300. I would think just playing a team with that net would be a negative.
Agreed, especially at home. I wouldn't be shocked if Oregon's NET goes down a spot or 2 tonight no matter what happened.
Great stuff.
Obviously UM has to win tonight for it to matter but beat Illinois and suddenly Michigan is probably on the cut line and if Wisconsin loses to Purdue may well leap-frog them in the Big 10 pecking order.
I said about a month ago that if UM made it to 12-8 in conference I think they're in and I hold to that. All of the conference rankings I've seen pegs the Big 10 either 2nd or 3rd to the Big 12/SEC, and being a top-4 team in said conference does carry some weight beyond a NET rating. KenPom has UM at 42nd and Sagarin has them at 30th in the country, and while nothing will remove the stink of that CMU game I refuse to believe that will be dispositive if UM splits the end of the year against Q1 teams.
Cal isn't going to be beat Oregon but the Ducks are in a tough spot because it's all downside risk for them to end the year - home games against Cal and Stanford. The Cardinal already beat Oregon at home so it's not impossible they'd do it again on the road, and that would be a terrible loss for Oregon while wins in both of these games are expected and aren't moving the needle.
Had NW just beaten PSU it would have been a great night but fans shouldn't lose sight of the fact that former bubble teams Clemson, TT, and Okie St. all suffered stepbacks and are probably out of the running right now for bids pending super-long runs in conference tourneys; as noted OSU being on a lot of ballots is an artifact of old data, as the 51 brackets updated yesterday only 8 include OSU.
Good thing we didn't lose to ASU by 30.
Go Blue!!!
Beat dem biting illini
Where's everybody that thought Pitt didn't have a chance to get to q1?
This was a comment made Saturdays thread:
Syracuse and ND won't get them to 50; rather, they'd stay floating in the 55-60 range.
They're 55th despite losing to ND! I thought they'd have to beat ND by double digits to get to top 50. Probably only needed to win to get there last night.
Alas...
Worse, they moved back up to the 9 line on the matrix after a bunch of brackets were updated last night. I don't think any of these included their loss, mostly they dropped NC State and Auburn behind Pitt after those two teams losses earlier in the week but it just goes to show how far Pitt was from the bubble. The loss last night will put them back on the 10 line, maybe even the top 11 seeds (with byes) but with a road game against Miami as the last regular season game, there's probably no way they're left out.
I'm right here - and again, you continue to miss the very blatant and oft-reminded point that Pitt WAS #50 before they beat GT. They beat GT and 'Cuse and dropped 3 spots, net. And as previously proven via formula, beating sub-200 ND was not going to get them to 50, at best back to 52. And then they fall again at Miami, down to 56-58. You unequivocally said that beating Cuse and ND would get them to 50 (again, where they were already at before dropping with wins), and has been formulaically proven to be 110% absolutely false. There ya go, great job.
Btw, you're welcome on Selection Sunday if Michigan is announced as 'last team in' and Pitt as 'first team out' solely due to the ND loss. As both are on the same seed line, it is entirely possible, unlike your since-proven-false assertion.
Pitt is now below Michigan in the NET (#55 and #54 respectively).
They didn't move up when they beat Syracuse; they actually dropped from 52 to 53. They then dropped 2 more spots with a loss. At this point teams I don't expect teams in that mid-50s range to bounce around a ton with NET because they're basically where they should be; they're a bubble team surrounded by other bubble teams. At least to the flattened process NET applies to resumes that makes sense. The way I think about it is if you had a list of 30 numbers between 1-10 adding one more number isn't going to mess with that average to much even at the extremes. But fractional changes when everyone is bunched together can be significant, and in no way was losing to ND last night good for Pitt or weakens Michigan's resume significantly. Pitt was unlikely to sneak into the top-50 without a long run in the ACC tournament, and Michigan making the tournament is unlikely to happen without UM winning at least 2 more games this year against top-50 teams.
You have the wrong day. Those are the rankings through games on the 26th. They played Syracuse on the 25th and they moved from 54th to 52nd after winning that one.
The archive doesn't have a screengrab for that day, but you can see that they ended the 24th at 54th and began the 26th at 52nd (per your screengrab).
And that ranking through the 26th you shared shows just how close they got to 50th after the Syracuse game because you'll note that Oregon started the 26th at 50th and dropped to 52nd, Charleston started the day behind Pitt at 53rd, but moved ahead of Pitt and Oregon to 51st without any of those teams even playing that day.
Which means after that cuse game, the teams 50th-54th were extremely closely bunched, basically all had the same NET.
And Pitt would have easily moved ahead of them all with a win last night by perhaps even as low as 5-7 points (I thought 10+ going in but I probably underestimated the giant road bonus NET gives, which is why they barely dropped even after losing) because you're exactly right that fractional changes can have a big impact in this range, especially as bunched as those 4-5 teams were.
You are very wrong that Pitt was unlikely to sneak into the top-50 without a long run in the ACC tournament. All they had to do was cover last night to get there and then not get blown out at Miami and then perform to expectations in ACC tourney to stay there.
My guess is that even though Pitt only dropped two spots they probably lost quote a bit of ground on those teams from 50-53 in raw score.
Seems like the ball is literally in their court, would be a great time for their 1st win over the Illini since 2019! Let’s make it so!
I wait for this post every day thank you TB9!
Brutal loss, but at the very least the other 2 big games went our way. Hope to see you continue making these posts over the next few days TB9. I’m not giving up hope yet.
Yeah, calling TB9, this is far from over, we're still on the first four out on most brackets and will be looking good with a win on Sunday.
We can't quit now man!