Team Talent vs Margin of Victory For OSU Under JH (2015 - 2019)
There seems to be a lot of back and forth regarding recruiting, development, coaching, etc. Folks are looking for a reason why we're losing to OSU and more so why the scores have been so bad the last two years. We want to know is it as simple as talent or is it coaching, scheme, development, attrition, or some other reason. I'd like to suggest it's as simple as talent, although I also recognize that Brown was hired to beat Meyer's offense and Day seems to be uniquely qualified to beat Brown's scheme as they coached together at one point. Anyways, here's a comparison of 247's Team Talent Composite for the last 5 years under JH and the margin of loss to OSU in The Game.
UM OSU Difference Pt Differential in Game
2015 #9 #3 6 spots 29 pts
2016 #8 #5 3 spots 3 pts
2017 #7 #2 5 spots 11 pts
2018 #8 #1 7 spots 23 pts
2019 #11 #2 9 spots 29 pts
As you can clearly see the larger the difference in the team talent composite, the larger the margin of victory for OSU with 2015, 2018, and 2019 being the worst. Unsurprisingly the two closest games were 2017 and 2016 where the team talent composite difference was only 3-5 spots. 5 spots in the team talent composite seems to be the magic number to be competitive and 3 spots seems like the number to actually suggest the possibility of a win instead of a close loss (assuming you don't get screwed by horrible officiating).
December 4th, 2019 at 2:51 PM ^
l would say the major difference for the blowouts is OSU found the missing piece that it lacked in the past: a qb that is an accurate passer. Braxton and JT were not good passers. It's no coincidence the offense skyrocketed once Meyer's qb run first philosophy was jettisoned and Day's Big 12 style offense was implemented with elite passers in Haskins and Fields. Also, getting rid of Zach Smith and having a real wr coach in Hartline greatly improved the wr's ability.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:09 PM ^
I agree with this take and it's why I never bought into the "OSU will take a step back" narrative either before last year or this one. Meyer's offensive approach, including his qb recruits, were actually a liability to his team by the time he came to OSU. His schtick had been figured out. But he's a master recruiter and they were just so damn talented across the board that they could still be really good despite that.
When I saw Dwayne Haskins drop that dime in the 2017 game I knew we were in trouble the next year. Now, their O Line play and linebackers in 2018 gave me some hope, but their O Line was nearly flawless against us, of course. And their defense was just mediocre instead of a disaster that gave up huge plays.
And of course I never believed we'd beat them in 2019. Not before or during the season.
All that being said, Michigan's QB play and offensive philosophy has also held them back under Harbaugh. Let's just hope Gattis is our Ryan Day/Lincoln Riley. Shea took a huge step throughout the season. A lot like Haskins did last year. Hopefully DMac balls out next season.
We'll still lose to Ohio State, but at least it can be a game and 11-1 with a trip to the Rose Bowl would be pretty fun.
December 4th, 2019 at 4:34 PM ^
I was looking at this talent composite last year and something jumped out at me. We were #8 but Clemson was #6 and Oklahoma was #11. So we were sandwiched between two teams that are regularly in the playoff. What are they doing differently? Is it coaching? Certainly coaching plays a big role, see Florida State and USC consistently in the top 2-5 most talented teams but greatly underachieving due to poor coaching.
Its QB play. This year Oklahoma is 8, Clemson 9, and Michigan 11. Not much statistical difference in overall talent. But Clemson is clearly one of the best 3 teams in the country and I think OU will get into the playoff again. Why? Because they both have great college QBs. Our high water mark in talent was the 2017 team at #7. Why did we go 8-5? Quarterback. So it's great to get a Rashan Gary every now and then but I'd gladly trade a recruit like that for a Kyler Murray or Deshean Watson. Put one of these elite QBs on that 2017 team and we're probably in the playoff. A guy like that would be worth 3-4 wins a season to a Harbaugh-coached Michigan team with top 10 talent.
Yes, I know those two specific guys were never realistic targets for Michigan. I'm just using them as examples of elite QBs that will be perfect for our system. But we need to find one and fast.
Gattis seems to have the offense functioning now and McCaffrey should be well-suited to run it next year. But we're at our ceiling until we can bring in a guy that can put up video game numbers. If Gattis is who we hope he is, we should have an explosive offense with a high end QB.
December 4th, 2019 at 7:25 PM ^
I disagree with people who just shrug this off to "Jimmys and Joes" or some kind of huge talent gap. Don Brown has been worked in the last two outings against them. The fact that OSU beat us with basically their base two straight years is unacceptable. Sometimes you have to do something different, or cheat against the offense's strength, and he has failed to do that. That talent gap is way smaller than what other teams deal with and remain competitive.
Actually, my biggest disappointment is that when momentum started going against Michigan they in turn made more mistakes and it kept snow balling. It was like they couldn't stick with it mentally and they let discouragement shape their play. It's not just losing, it's the feeling that they didn't leave it all out there. I'm sure many will think I'm wrong because a top 10 recruiting program needs to recruit better (without doing things that their rivals and others stoop to), but at times it doesn't feel as if the coaching staff maximizes what they have.
Offensively they took too long to implement a coherent system, and at least late in the year it is just tightening up little things. The defense is able to minimize their flaws and play solid against lesser teams, but has no answers against elite offenses. Yes, Ohio State is great, but being competitive shouldn't be beyond expectation.
December 4th, 2019 at 7:29 PM ^
Each respective year's recruiting ranking does not have an immediate impact for that year. So I'm not sure this logic is accurate.