Team Talent vs Margin of Victory For OSU Under JH (2015 - 2019)
There seems to be a lot of back and forth regarding recruiting, development, coaching, etc. Folks are looking for a reason why we're losing to OSU and more so why the scores have been so bad the last two years. We want to know is it as simple as talent or is it coaching, scheme, development, attrition, or some other reason. I'd like to suggest it's as simple as talent, although I also recognize that Brown was hired to beat Meyer's offense and Day seems to be uniquely qualified to beat Brown's scheme as they coached together at one point. Anyways, here's a comparison of 247's Team Talent Composite for the last 5 years under JH and the margin of loss to OSU in The Game.
UM OSU Difference Pt Differential in Game
2015 #9 #3 6 spots 29 pts
2016 #8 #5 3 spots 3 pts
2017 #7 #2 5 spots 11 pts
2018 #8 #1 7 spots 23 pts
2019 #11 #2 9 spots 29 pts
As you can clearly see the larger the difference in the team talent composite, the larger the margin of victory for OSU with 2015, 2018, and 2019 being the worst. Unsurprisingly the two closest games were 2017 and 2016 where the team talent composite difference was only 3-5 spots. 5 spots in the team talent composite seems to be the magic number to be competitive and 3 spots seems like the number to actually suggest the possibility of a win instead of a close loss (assuming you don't get screwed by horrible officiating).
December 4th, 2019 at 10:19 AM ^
Kinda to add onto your point, this also only shows where the class ranked. Not how much talent was brought in. With the top talent condensed into the top 5 programs as you mentioned, the different between 2 and 11 can be a lot more significant than “there’s only a few teams separating them.”
A look into the average recruit rank, total recruiting score and even a position by position breakdown would be a lot more telling than simply where the class was ranked.
December 4th, 2019 at 1:38 PM ^
Yep. 11 NFL draft picks off that team.
December 4th, 2019 at 8:38 AM ^
Those damn freshmen being redshirted this year. Really screwed us against osu last week.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:25 AM ^
Exactly. This is lazy analysis. Unless they were trying to say that results lead directly to recruiting differential that year or the following.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:44 AM ^
I think a running 4 year average would be a better metric to compared.
December 4th, 2019 at 8:49 AM ^
You just figured this out ?
December 4th, 2019 at 8:53 AM ^
Yes, we need better recruits. However, no one can seem to explain why MSU had a 5 year run against Urban Meyer where they won 2x and had a combined point differential from 2012-2016 against them at -1.
Penn State is presently on a 4 year run against OSU with one victory and a combined point differential of -10.
Michigan’s point differential the last 4 seasons against OSU is now -66. Unless you want to somehow justify how the recruiting of those programs are hands down better than us, then you can easily conclude we should not be getting boat raced against OSU. Would having better players at every position help? Yes. Is there enough talent on this team to not get crushed against OSU? Yes. Therefore, you can easily conclude there are bigger problems inside the program than just recruiting rankings.
December 4th, 2019 at 8:59 AM ^
In 1993, 1995, and1996, OSU was ranked 5, 2, and 2. In 93 we were unranked, in 95 and 96 we were 18 and 21. We beat their asses in each of those games.
So OSU having more talent, a better record, and higher ranking is nothing new.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:27 AM ^
Psychology.
Impossible to be objective here, but Cooper often "nutted up" like a prey animal.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:58 AM ^
In 1993, 1995, and1996, OSU was ranked 5, 2, and 2. In 93 we were unranked, in 95 and 96 we were 18 and 21. We beat their asses in each of those games.
I'd love to see those numbers. Where did you get them from? Are they available on the web?
I think the team talent is a better indication than individual class rankings, but I think 247 is the only one that does a team talent composite and it only goes back to 2015. But it's also worth noting that a great class typically doesn't contribute in year one as true freshman. So, a great class in '93 is not really relevant to the outcome of the '93 game. It typically takes 2-3 years for those guys to start contributing.
So OSU having more talent, a better record, and higher ranking is nothing new.
I agree, but I'm not sure most people realized how much it correlated...like every ranking spot in the team talent composite equated to a larger margin of victory during the JH era without any outliers.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:14 AM ^
I remembered the numbers, but they're readily available in several spots online. They're not recruiting rankings though, those are the AP rankings at the time the game was played. OSU was almost always undefeated and we usually had a couple/few losses.
December 4th, 2019 at 1:31 PM ^
They're not recruiting rankings though, those are the AP rankings at the time the game was played.
That's more of an apples-to-oranges comparison. I'm looking at recruiting rankings not W/L records. I'm not saying one is a better comparison than the other, but I am saying that's not what I evaluated.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:01 AM ^
Ancient history. Different era.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:20 AM ^
And? We regularly beat OSU teams that were objectively more talented than we were. It can be done. It has been done.
This current meme that OSU is so fucking talented that we might as well give up is infuriating.
December 4th, 2019 at 12:39 PM ^
We have enough talent to win.
December 4th, 2019 at 2:43 PM ^
I wouldn't necessarily say OSU had more talent back then. Maybe they did but the gap was minimal. The string of 4 loss seasons from 93-96 are some of the more underachieving UM teams that I can remember.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:03 AM ^
I can try to explain MSU's success.
For MSU, it's all about the style of play. They can muck up the game and control the tempo and force the opponent to play to their form. Both wins MSU got against them were 3 point wins where neither team scored over 20 points. Dantonio is a master at forcing you to play at their level.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:12 AM ^
MSU actually had a double digit win against OSU at the BTCG. But you’re starting to hint at what I’m getting at...why was MSU’s shtick so much effective than what we’re doing? I mean, I’ve got my own opinions about it, but at the end of the day they’re just opinions.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:15 AM ^
Um, what? Their first win in the Big Ten title game was 34-24
December 4th, 2019 at 10:03 AM ^
You realize that the number 10 has two digits aka double digits.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:20 AM ^
Don't forget about Mork's ability to manipulate the weather.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:14 AM ^
Yup, the thoroughbreds vs. the mudders, and it always seems to rain in MSU's favor.
December 4th, 2019 at 8:53 AM ^
Mkay, except the problem is we're very unlikely to close that talent gap any more than we already have.
Harbaugh is not an elite recruiter, and that's something none of us expected. He's also not an elite gameday coach either who gives us some schematic advantage. So, yeah.
December 4th, 2019 at 8:56 AM ^
Probably the top 10 or 11 players for both teams are comparable. I think where OSU pulls away and it shows in the game is the next 20 guys where the drop off in talent is less and they have more, game ready contributors. They always also have 1-3 extreme athletes that UM only gets once in a while.
All 85 on OSU probably aren't dudes but the middle of their roster is deeper.
December 4th, 2019 at 8:59 AM ^
Ignoring DT recruiting doesn’t help
December 4th, 2019 at 9:03 AM ^
Who gets the blame for that by the way? Mattison? Brown?
I think it's clear that we need a much bigger line, at least in the middle. Hard to get any push when the opposing OL is so much bigger and stronger.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:31 AM ^
It’s a good question. I don’t know. During the broadcast, one of the announcers mentioned that Brown preferred speed versus size. Not sure how accurate that comment was since he could have pulled that out of thin air. I’m guessing speed + size = 5 star. I’d rather take the size to counter teams like Wisconsin and OSU.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:38 AM ^
Speed is good in the secondary and on the ends, but you have to have size in the middle. Someone posted a picture in the bowl projection thread showing Alabama's OL. All well over 300lbs, including a guy who is 6' 7" and 360lbs. A converted fullback is getting killed against that.
I think Brown's recruiting preferences are more suited to the ACC than the Big 10.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:47 AM ^
"I think it's clear that we need a much bigger line, at least in the middle."
I still haven't come across any explanation for why Mazi Smith sat on the bench the entire season, with the exception of some ST snaps against MD.
Was he injured?
Was he physically too weak? That doesn't seem likely, given the pre-season comments we heard from other UM players.
Was his conditioning awful? Seems like that's something you work on in summer and preseason drills.
Was his technique so abysmal that putting him out there against even MTSU, Army, and Rutgers was a risk too great to take? If that's the case, his recruiting ranking was a sham.
December 4th, 2019 at 11:17 AM ^
Even if his conditioning was awful, couldn't they put him on the field for 3, 4, 5 plays at a time and then sub him out for a while? Most teams rotate their dline throughout the game anyway. I just can't believe that a player of his level is so out of shape he can't play AT ALL. It's gotta be his strength, technique, his understanding of his assignments or a combo of those.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:05 AM ^
Don Brown was not hired specifically to beat Urban Meyer's offense.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:13 AM ^
Every coach should be hired specifically to defeat OSU. That should be the first question in an interview. How are you going to help us beat Ohio?
December 4th, 2019 at 9:18 AM ^
This is the kind of one-track thinking we cite to laugh at Ohio State. 12 games on the schedule. Don Brown was hired to put a competent defensive scheme on the field for all of them.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:24 AM ^
Who here is laughing at Ohio State?
December 4th, 2019 at 9:58 AM ^
I thought his comment was spot on. People bash or should i say laugh at OSU for their obsession with us.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:15 AM ^
And those people are dumb
December 4th, 2019 at 10:31 AM ^
OSU is the only team capable of seriously challenging us on the football field over the long term. And we have to play them at the end of every season. So no matter what we do before then, if they beat us our season is effectively over most of the time.
They are right to be obsessed with us.
December 4th, 2019 at 11:26 AM ^
Or Wisconsin. Or Penn State. Or prior to them falling off, Michigan State. Or Iowa.
There are a lot of teams capable of challenging Michigan.
December 4th, 2019 at 11:37 AM ^
Over the short term, yes. But if we ever decide to stop playing this game without one hand tied behind our backs, we will be Alabama north in short order.
December 4th, 2019 at 1:33 PM ^
I guarantee Gene Smith asks potential FB coaches "How are you going to beat UM?" in their interviews.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:06 AM ^
That is a huge talent difference. #1 or 2 in the nation is crazy strong. That means we are facing a team of high 4-stars with our high 3-stars. That is like bringing a knife to a gun fight.
To evaluate coaching, I like to look at our composite player ranking of about 10th compared to our 5-year SP+ rank of 7th. On that metric, coaches are exceeding the raw talent of its players.
Our coaches are worth every penny we pay them. If we can up the recruiting success to a player composite of around 5th, these coaches can compete for a NC.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:23 AM ^
This isn't about how much we're paying the coaches, it's about how much we're not paying the players.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:06 AM ^
Expand the playoffs=solution.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:07 AM ^
Yeah then we wouldn’t have gotten curb stomped and would jo be preparing to upset Clemson, amirite?
December 4th, 2019 at 9:14 AM ^
Well we're about to play Alabama in a bowl game, so we'll see.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:23 AM ^
I know lol. I just think its funny how some people watch a few MLB playoff games, come away with the idea that "anything can happen in the playoffs," and suddenly they like our chances against the NCAAF playoff teams
December 4th, 2019 at 10:38 AM ^
Baseball is a game of fine motor skills. It's more akin to golf than football. Football is a game of gross motor skills. Getting "hot", or getting into a good rhythm with your timing with your swing for hitting or pitching mechanics can make a great difference in performance. It's less likely to be influenced by things like being bigger, stronger, and faster. Football on other hand doesn't have the same influence outside of QB play and kicking and punting. Gross motor skills are much more influenced by traits of athleticism like running, jumping, strength, size, etc. Those skills tend to be greater in higher ranked recruits and are much less effected by momentum, timing, aka getting "hot" the way baseball is. So, a team that gets "hot" at the right time with timely pitching and hitting can beat better teams more easily in baseball than in football. Also, Great pitching can win games in the playoffs by not allowing the other team to score. One player cannot stop the other team from scoring in football in the same way.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:11 AM ^
5th place team in the big 10 is not making even an expanded playoff
December 4th, 2019 at 9:06 AM ^
I was also thinking of pulling this data together. It seems to me, though, that using the overall talent ranking doesn’t provide enough context. For example, this year, #11 v #2 doesn’t sound so bad until you realize they have an extra 9(!!) five-stars on the roster.
Edit:
Not a perfect analogy of course, but here are the nine most recent 5*s we've had. Basically, if each of them were still on the team, we'd be equal to OSU in talent (technically we'd still be short on 4*s, but we can let that slide).
Aubrey Soloman
Rashan Gary
Jabrill Peppers
Derrick Green
Kyle Kalis
Ondre Pipkins
William Campbell
Donovan Warren
Ryan Mallett
December 4th, 2019 at 9:56 AM ^
How would a 30 year old Mallett have helped this year? Look at the list.
Soloman. Was a weird process from outset. Jury is out on him
Gary. Good but never lived up to the hype
Peppers. Closest to a sure thing at Michigan.
Green. Too much time at Popeye's. Bust
Kalis. Overrated but decent and serviceable
Pipkins. Another one that was all over the place. Back and forth, then injuries
Campbell. Bust
Warren. Very good and met level of hype
Mallett. Who knows? Recruited as "classic" M QB. First domino in the transition from LLLLoyd to Rich Rod.
Overall not a good track record. 2 good. 2 pretty good. Rest are busts.