Sweden’s approach to Covid
While seemingly every economy in the world is shutting down, Sweden Did..nothing
schools are in session. Bars and restaurants are open. Some light social distancing and work at home when possible is encouraged, but for the most part, life is going on as is.
surely this should be a recipe for disaster?
So far, they don’t seem to be faring any worse than anyone else. Despite getting their first deaths at the same time as the US, their curve of new cases has been slower, and deaths per capita has been slightly higher (unlikely a statistically significant difference)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8208397/Sweden-sees-just-77-new-deaths-coronavirus.html
Their curves are smack dab on par with other countries
https://www.covid19insweden.com/en/
If this trend continues, it would certainly be good reasoning to try to a “soft open” of the economy. at minimum, it’s nice to have a control group to see how this would play out.
April 10th, 2020 at 11:27 PM ^
I’m outraged.
April 10th, 2020 at 11:35 PM ^
:::screeches in authoritarian:::
April 10th, 2020 at 11:36 PM ^
I'll drop this here first:
Not sure why you haven't seen it or if maybe you are willfully ignoring it, but I'm seeing reports the last several days that seem to contradict your OP. Here's one:
(edit) Another from yesterday:
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/9/21213472/coronavirus-sweden-herd-immunity-cases-death
April 10th, 2020 at 11:41 PM ^
They’re still in the exponential phase. But to this point, it’s no steeper than anyone else.
And I think their goal was to tolerate a steeper more intense first wave while minimizing the impact to the economy (which has its own set of devastating consequences that must be weighed against the virus itself). But if it ends up being the same growth curve as locking down , it good information to have
Exactly. So it's still very early. It's very easy to see Norway and Denmark dropping off while Sweden keeps climbing faster and faster. Korea and Italy had very similar slopes in the beginning. People keep trying to draw conclusions well before we have any. I remember when people here were saying actually Korea isn't doing well because they have 8,000 cases.
April 11th, 2020 at 12:09 PM ^
This is just a bad post because you are saying something that everyone should expect like it’s news. Given the incubation period and onset of symptoms it takes about 2-3 weeks for social distancing to have an impact. People going to the hospital now got the virus in March. What will tell the difference is the next month. And if you look at Sweden compared to Norway and Denmark, their closest peers you see Norway and Denmark are off the exponential curve while Sweden is still on the upswing. This is very bad news for Sweden, not good news
April 10th, 2020 at 11:43 PM ^
Sweden's death rate is near 10%. Their approach scaled for larger countries with densely populated areas is a recipe for disaster. They have a similar count of total cases as South Korea, but 4x more deaths.
April 10th, 2020 at 11:45 PM ^
Death rate should be looked at as deaths per capita.
that reported death rate is death per known positive tested patient.
they’ve tested Covid much less than other countries (less test per capita than Bermuda) so that number is artificially inflated. death per capita is 80/million , while us is 60/million population
April 10th, 2020 at 11:49 PM ^
Good points. Their death rate per capita is significantly higher than countries with a similar number of cases, which means they are under testing and have a high number of un-reported cases.
April 10th, 2020 at 11:55 PM ^
The biggest data point country with a similar testing rate (5k tests per million population) to them is France.
france has 3x the death rate as it currently stands
UK is also similar, 2X death rate per capita
I’m just presenting data, I think it’s interesting to watch this unfold. Not trying to stir anything up not sure why I’m being mass downvoted
April 11th, 2020 at 12:08 AM ^
Great point again.
April 11th, 2020 at 12:39 AM ^
“I’m just presenting data...”
Are you? Seems like you’re starting at a conclusion and working yourself back through the “data” that fits that conclusion
Yes I am.
This is me saying “look at this MAC team hanging with bama in the first quarter.”
time will tell if their method works the same
April 11th, 2020 at 10:54 AM ^
If you have a problem with the data --- critique the data.
Frankly, you aren't doing that.
I'm noticing this on a number of platforms, especially Reddit. Anyone who presents data that challenges the "maybe there's a better path forward than full lockdown" gets downvoted and accused of cherry-picking. But rarely does anyone in that conversation actually critique the data.
April 11th, 2020 at 10:59 AM ^
No good scientist works ass-backward like that (starting with a conclusion and cherry-picking data in support of the conclusion). Do you feel otherwise?
- - -
I don't want to see anyone die necessarily, but I do like that we're getting a wide range of data from different settings. The unintentional Scandinavian experiment is interesting and will help guide our approach to relaxing restrictions.
Is NYC not a datapont? Because we’ve seen that it’s pretty bad there and if you can present a plausible alternative (or better yet, an example) of a place where Covid reached the point it was in NYC and then just magically reversed itself, I’d be interested in seeing that. Maybe you could do the same for Italy while you are at it.
April 11th, 2020 at 10:54 AM ^
What are the population densities of the three countries you site? Stockholm’s population density is 13,000/sq. mile. Paris’s is 52,000. Let’s try to compare apples and apples as much as we can, please.
April 11th, 2020 at 12:32 PM ^
Not to mention that Swedish culture is completely different from France, and social distancing is almost baked into their way of life by default.
It's a dishonest argument made to fit an agenda.
Because they dont want you asking questions.
You're supposed to agree with any mainstream talking point narratives
Anyone who gets out of line should be mocked and ridiculed.
Edit- this reply was to sugarshane who was wondering why he was downvoted.
As others have noted, the Mortality rate isn’t important or accurate at this point. We won’t know the true mortality for 3-6 more months. All that matters is the number of critically ill patients that occur at the same time. All that matters is our healthcare systems ability to support a wave of critically ill patients. When the system gets overwhelmed, more people will die who might have been able to be saved, simply due to lack of resources. This doesn’t just apply to COVID patients. This goes for heart attacks, strokes, trauma, etc. Thats why the idea of flattening the curve is and has been so important. Stay safe.
April 11th, 2020 at 12:35 PM ^
Deaths per capita come down to two things. (1) Age of population, one reason Italy has been hit the worst. (2) Capacity of hospitals and supplies.
I haven't looked, but if Sweden is not short on supplies and their ICUs aren't overflowing, then they are doing as good as they can. I'd be surprised if that were true though.
April 11th, 2020 at 11:48 AM ^
Reading the Vox article, I noticed the first sentence has an error that I think is important to note.
"As most governments around the world impose strict social distancing measures to try to stop the spread of the coronavirus, Sweden has tried something quite different — and it’s unclear if it’ll prove successful or lead to more deaths."
Our experts have all made clear social distancing is meant to SLOW the spread, not STOP.
April 10th, 2020 at 11:37 PM ^
Sweden is almost twice size of Michigan with roughly the same population. Light social distancing is probably all that’s necessary. Also another economy that has a month off for “holiday”.
April 10th, 2020 at 11:40 PM ^
They are also extremely healthy. I don't think anything they do can be representative of what could work in America.
April 11th, 2020 at 12:38 AM ^
Maize - exactly.
This is the point that everyone saying "But, Sweden!" don't understand - co-morbidities seem to have a HUGE influence on patient outcome with this disease. Half of the U.S. is obese - Sweden is not. I've seen quite a number of my acquaintances poo-pooing the risks on social media, even though they are the very ones most likely to fair very poorly if they get infected.
April 11th, 2020 at 11:27 AM ^
Co-morbidities and population density certainly seem like important variables, and that may be why we're doing slightly "better" here in MN.
April 11th, 2020 at 12:37 PM ^
Obesity, and the problems that come with it, are a real problem in this country. Really need people to start taking their health a bit more seriously.
April 11th, 2020 at 12:57 PM ^
My son dated a Swedish exchange student in High school and by the time her yr was up she had gained 20lbs from living the good old US and A lifestyle. Her parents were in absolute shock when they came for a visit.
April 10th, 2020 at 11:39 PM ^
Wait...so Sweden is treating it like any other virus and seeing no different outcome than any other country....it's almost like people have been freaking out over nothing....
April 11th, 2020 at 12:13 AM ^
I know you’re being downvoted to hell, but...maybe?
April 11th, 2020 at 10:27 AM ^
yeah there is a large concentration of 'fuck off you are wrong if you don't agree with me' mobsters here...it is what it is...they can neg all they want...I understand the significance of their point and plausibility that Sweden is an outlier and things could get much worse...
the chief difference is, these mindless twats can't see that a barrage of information which is conflicting, incomplete, skewed, and fails to fit their narrative MIGHT have some truth behind it...not THE TRUTH...but some...so is life...I chose to study, evaluate for myself, and leave the bitching whining little ego trippers to their own stupidity.
April 11th, 2020 at 10:27 AM ^
yeah there is a large concentration of 'fuck off you are wrong if you don't agree with me' mobsters here...it is what it is...they can neg all they want...I understand the significance of their point and plausibility that Sweden is an outlier and things could get much worse...
the chief difference is, these mindless twats can't see that a barrage of information which is conflicting, incomplete, skewed, and fails to fit their narrative MIGHT have some truth behind it...not THE TRUTH...but some...so is life...I chose to study, evaluate for myself, and leave the bitching whining little ego trippers to their own stupidity.
You nitwit.
It's not "an outlier", it's just that what OP is trying to make people believe with this thread isn't what's happening. Sweden isn't "doing nothing". They just aren't. They just don't have a forced mandatory shut down like their neighbors, they're doing it all voluntary. They also have a much higher death and infection rate than their neighbors.
But I'll bet you didn't actually read anything before posting. Just reacting to a post you want to be correct.
United States of
America 425889
On behalf of the 4 hundred and twenty five thousand eight hundred and eighty nine infected in our country.... please and kindly fuck off and also the 30,000 that will be reported tomorrow.
Not to mention 4 weeks ago your news was telling you it was all fake. Now its downgraded to just overblown right? Boy when you guys get marching orders you never deviate.
Amazing. I got death threats on this board a week ago for making the same argument and now it's split about evenly between "let's emulate Sweden" and "let's keep hiding." I give this another two weeks until the Swedish approach is supported by a majority of Americans.
April 11th, 2020 at 10:18 AM ^
2000+ people died in the US yesterday. That # will continue to rise.
It is still too early to see if Sweden's strategy will work, but compared to its Scandinavian neighbors, it looks bad for Sweden and will probably get worse.
Swedish people are also MUCH healthier than Americans. Less obesity, heart disease, lung disease, and basically every other co-morbidity risk. You don't deserve death threats for your ignorance and stupidity, but you do deserve ridicule.
6.9.0They also get universal health care. And I bet if they're sick they get paid sick leave too so that they're not infecting their co-workers.
April 11th, 2020 at 10:43 AM ^
I got death threats on this board a week ago for making the same argumen
Oh, really? Maybe you could include some links.
April 11th, 2020 at 10:57 AM ^
He won't, because he can't.
They were from Michigan Arrogance and Timmaay, or however you spell it. Not death threats, but wishes for my death. Those guys should be kicked off of the board - just completely classless people.
April 10th, 2020 at 11:42 PM ^
The best hope is that they can rapidly implement wide spread antibody tests and millions of Americans find out they had the virus. We then can open the economy while still implementing basic social distancing standards while the highest at-risk adhere to stricter measures through the fall and winter (projected “second wave”). At that point a vaccine and other treatments are put in place and by summer 2021 Coronavirus is no longer a big deal
April 11th, 2020 at 12:03 AM ^
Until the virus mutates and the vaccine no longer works.
When this pandemic passes I hope there is a rational review of how effective sheltering in place actually was. I'm not saying it was handled wrong. I don't know. Did we need to have all the collateral damage? Please, please, PLEASE tell me policy makers and government officials actually learn something from this.
April 11th, 2020 at 12:12 AM ^
Since the Federal government has done and continues to do anything useful other than reiterating some basic guidelines like wash your hands. I doubt they'll review anything other than maybe check to make sure bosses ass has been sufficiently kissed.
April 11th, 2020 at 10:54 AM ^
First off, sheltering in place ABSOLUTELY has been effective at saving lives. There is literally no good argument against that point.
But I agree that something must be learned from this. Chiefly, that actions are needed AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE, such as shutting down international travel into your country (with limited exceptions on a case by case basis, and those who have tested negative) when it becomes clear there's an outbreak anywhere in the world. We had months of notice with China and did nothing until it was already far too late.
Second, the preparedness of the healthcare system was laughably poor in terms of supplies and necessary medical equipment. Not to mention, testing.
There are many things to learn from this. The first one being, elect competent people who will listen to experts when a problem is presented.
April 11th, 2020 at 12:16 AM ^
Stanford researchers will supposedly have antibody results by early next week. The second study of that sort in America. San Miguel County, CO is the first but those results are taking forever because of lab problems.
Anyway, Stanford tested 3200 folk last Friday and Saturday (a fairly large number - all in the South Bay), and they said then the results were "due around a week."
April 11th, 2020 at 12:37 AM ^
San Miguel County data starting to show interesting results although I’m not sure i follow how it can be so drastic when they extrapolate to the rest of the country:
Interesting read, as is this one that I found linked below that article on the same website:
https://reason.com/2020/04/08/how-the-cdc-and-the-fda-wrecked-the-economy/
...which criticizes the CDC and the FDA for major early missteps that forced extreme decisions contributing greatly to the wrecking of the US economy.