Stings like hell to type this: Ohio St still has reasonable chance of reaching CFP
Makes me sick to my stomach, but OSU still has fair chance of making the CFP...
-The UW/OR game is a play-in game for the #3 CFP seed. OSU will jump whichever team loses this game.
-GA is going to mow down Bama, so OSU moves ahead of Bama.
-If Texas loses, OSU moves ahead of Texas.
-Of all the dominos that must fall for The Great Evil, this is the biggest one: FSU must lose in the ACC champ game.
So, after Bama loses, Texas loses and FSU loses, does the CFP put OSU ahead of FSU? OSU certainly would go ahead of Texas, because TX would have 2 losses. Same for Bama. Does the CFP put 11-1 OSU ahead of 12-1 FSU? OSU had a tougher schedule, and it's single loss was certainly a much better loss than FSU could possibly suffer 6 days from now. Also, will the CFP consider that FSU's bad-ass QB is done for the season, when the CFP tries to decide between FSU and OSU for that coveted #4 CFP spot?
If you put a gun to my head, I would guess a 12-1 FSU gets that #4 spot, but I would not be surprised if The Great Evil backs into the CFP again. Always keep in the back of your mind...it's about the $$$. OSU would generate better TV ratings for a semi-final CFP game vs GA than FSU.
#GoBlue
#Bet
November 26th, 2023 at 2:26 PM ^
Osu is out. They need a miracle. And if Washington loses a close one, I could see both Oregon and Washington getting in over osu
November 26th, 2023 at 2:33 PM ^
They needed a series of upsets last year too, and got every single one of them. I won't believe they're out until the final rankings say so.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:45 PM ^
Fanduel odds to make the CFP:
- Bama +175
- FSU -190
- Georgia -460
- Michigan -2400
- OSU +2600
- Oregon -320
- Texas -115
- Washington +230
Ohio State is so far out of the picture that Fanduel is willing to give you $2,600 for a $100 bet on OSU getting in.
November 26th, 2023 at 3:24 PM ^
That UM bet actually looks pretty good…
I feel like we are all but guaranteed…
November 26th, 2023 at 3:28 PM ^
+1672 parlay for Georgia, Ok St, and Louisville to win.
So about 50/50 they think aOSU makes it in if all that happens
November 26th, 2023 at 3:29 PM ^
The odds are long because its like a parlay bet, but I think the OP’s analysis is accurate, assuming all those things take place. I think they will (and should) end up ahead of the loser of Washington-Oregon, and I think Georgia beats Alabama. I also think they’d end ahead of a one loss FSU team. The least likely event is Texas losing.
November 26th, 2023 at 3:47 PM ^
I think they will (and should) end up ahead of the loser of Washington-Oregon
Why should OSU be ahead of 12-1 Washington?
Washington would have a victory over a playoff team (Oregon); OSU wouldn’t. Washington has 3 wins over current CFP-ranked teams (Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona); OSU has 2 (Penn State, Notre Dame).
November 26th, 2023 at 4:22 PM ^
I don't get anyone assuming GA beats AL easily? GA may or may not be better across the board, but they have looked singularly mortal at times this year, when I was watching. And a mobile AL QB against a wooden GA QB suggests to me that a great game (tho' not guaranteed) from Milroe could decide a close one.
On a related note--even setting aside my resentment--a playoff without an SEC team would suggest that the college game is a little more balanced/healthy than it has sometimes looked recently.
November 26th, 2023 at 4:28 PM ^
Because they’re the better team.
November 27th, 2023 at 8:25 AM ^
, he asserted.
November 26th, 2023 at 4:46 PM ^
Well, if I had to make this argument... Michigan is either #1, or #2. So by default, OSU would have lost a close game, to a much better team than Washington (potentially) may lose to.
By slotting them at #6, they definitely wanted this to be a possibility.
November 26th, 2023 at 5:29 PM ^
They’re going to use the “eye test” aren’t they. In addition to the $$$ test.
November 26th, 2023 at 4:04 PM ^
If that's the entire slate of choices it's a surprisingly low vig market. There might be a real overlay here for someone.
November 26th, 2023 at 4:35 PM ^
Sounds like a “reasonable” bet for graymarch.
November 26th, 2023 at 3:12 PM ^
They needed one upset: Utah over USC in the Pac-12 title game.
And that happened Friday night.
On Conference Championship Saturday, the 4 teams had already been decided no matter the results of the games.
November 26th, 2023 at 3:16 PM ^
They needed a series of upsets last year too, and got every single one of them.
They needed one, and got Utah over USC.
This year they need two upsets: both Texas & FSU to lose, plus need GA to beat Bama. Those 3 things need to happen for OSU to have a chance.
November 26th, 2023 at 3:28 PM ^
They would have a chance, but I think it’d be preposterous for the committee to let a one loss Ohio that did not play in their conf championship game in over a one loss team whose only loss was in the conf championship game. You have:
1. SEC champ
2.UM
3.PAC 12 champ
4.FSU or Texas
I just don’t see a path for Ohio, even if Bama, FSU, and UT all lose.
November 26th, 2023 at 3:44 PM ^
OSU isn’t in the conference championship game only because they lost to the now #2 team in a close game, which would be clearly better loss than FSU losing to Louisville. Texas, if they lose to OK St, would be a two loss team and out. Washington isn’t better than OSU.
The more interesting question, although I highly doubt this will happen, is what if Michigan somehow loses to Iowa? Given the “scandal,” I doubt they’d want to let Michigan in as a one loss team, but what if Michigan, Oregon, Texas, Alabama, and FSU all lose? I can’t imagine they could get away with letting OSU in over Michigan, so it would be Georgia, Washington, probably FSU, and everyone else except Michigan would have two losses.
November 27th, 2023 at 8:28 AM ^
If Michigan were to lose to Iowa, they're probably still in just like TCU lost their CCG last year and still made it in.
November 26th, 2023 at 4:12 PM ^
OSU’s only quality victory is PSU (and possibly Maryland). They are a very good team, and it isn’t their fault that ND and the rest of the B1G were bad this year. Michigan had the same problem, had we lost I would see no argument to put us in the playoff.
OP is drunk or trolling.
November 26th, 2023 at 4:18 PM ^
A losing Washington gets in over OSU, as does a losing UGA (hilarious that people are counting Saban out). OSU (not that OSU) is terrible and will never beat Texas (although Sarkisian is capable of blowing any game). Nonetheless, tOSU needs all of:
1. An Oregon loss
2. An FSU Loss
3. An Alabama loss
4. A Texas loss
Last year all they needed was a USC loss. A USC team that lost to Tulane.
November 27th, 2023 at 12:03 PM ^
I mean, they needed basically one upset and got it. TCU lost and still got in. Michigan won and was in. Georgia won and was in. They were 5th in the final pre-rankings and USC was #4, and USC lost. There were no other 1-loss teams out there (Alabama was 6th, I think, with 2 losses), so it made sense OSU got in.
This year you're either going to have an undefeated or 1-loss SEC champion (and if UGA loses they're now a 1-loss team), a 1-loss Pac-12 team (again, if UW loses that's a 1-loss team), and either an undefeated Big-10 team or a 1-loss Big-10 team (in UM) who beat you. I guess FSU could lose and Texas could lose and then you have a 1-loss ACC team down their starting QB but you've still got a committee needing to reward a team for the second year by not even winning their division, and I have a hard time expecting that.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:36 PM ^
Not true. Last year they only needed USC to lose (and if USC lost, Utah, the team that would beat them, was in no position to overtake OSU). This year Oregon will overtake OSU if they win, and if they don't, Washington is in. Plus they need two other teams to lose, Texas and FSU. Not to mention that if Bama wins OSU is certainly not overtaking a 12-1 UGA. OSU is headed to the Orange Bowl.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:42 PM ^
Someone hasnt been paying attention to OSUs history of "Needs a miracle.."
November 26th, 2023 at 3:09 PM ^
OSU needs 4 things to happen:
1. Texas loss
2. FSU loss
3. Washington wins, or Oregon blows them out. (An Oregon squeaker should leave UW above OSU because they will have a better record, a better best win, a tougher schedule, and basically an equivalent loss.
4. Georgia beats Bama.
These are all must-haves for OSU. Could they all happen? Sure, it basically happened last year, but the chance of that happening is maybe 5%.
November 26th, 2023 at 3:29 PM ^
As I said above, even if that does happen, I don’t see how Ohio jumps FSU or UW, let alone both. Their only losses would be in conf championship games. The game that Ohio didn’t make.
November 26th, 2023 at 3:52 PM ^
They already dropped an undefeated FSU out of the top #4 because of Jordan Travis' injury, they are looking for any reason to leave them out. 0% chance they make it with a Louisville loss. They are -190 to make the playoffs, and -175 to beat Louisville, meaning the two events have a massive overlap.
November 26th, 2023 at 3:53 PM ^
I think if Oregon wins, no matter the score, Washington stays ahead of OSU. But yes otherwise they need all 4 of those things to happen, and even they would still be sweating it vs FSU.
November 26th, 2023 at 3:40 PM ^
No way Oregon gets in with 2 losses. This is why I hate conference championships. No one sitting at home on championship weekend should make the playoff in its current form. Getting rewarded for having an extra week of rest and playing one less game is bullshit.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:28 PM ^
Still think the chances favor them not being in.
I think there should have been a 13 game precedent for playoff eligible teams, or a 12-0 (and only 12-0) a Notre Dame.
After this year, none of this matters. But we will have new arguments for the #12 team.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:31 PM ^
Agreed. It's unlikely OSU backs into the CFP. I merely wanted to chart out how OSU still has a reasonable chance of getting into the CFP.
#GoBlue
November 26th, 2023 at 2:34 PM ^
Your post title says they have a reasonable chance. Now you’re saying it’s unlikely. Which is it?
November 26th, 2023 at 2:38 PM ^
A reasonable chance of 49%? Still unlikely but high enough that you wouldn’t be too surprised if it happened?
November 26th, 2023 at 7:26 PM ^
FSU, Oregon, Texas, & Bama would all have to lose for The Ohio to have a chance.
No way that happens.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:28 PM ^
Nope - they gone. We vanquished them. Again. Go blue! Better luck next year Ohio and petite Tony! The only sting felt today is in Columbus- per usual since 2019.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:28 PM ^
OSU needs Texas, Alabama, and FSU to lose to have any chance. I would also say Washington has a better case to be in over OSU even if the 3 teams above lose. OSU still has a shot but it is not a real high probability. Can you imagine being the team that backs into the playoffs 3 separate years without even playing in your conference championship. Ohio vs The World……
November 26th, 2023 at 2:32 PM ^
Washington losing would put them in the TCU spot from last year - undefeated team loses rematch in conference title game. They have a great resume and wouldn't fall below an 11-1 team.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:45 PM ^
To a way better team than TCU lost to as well.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:35 PM ^
Excellent point. Would be ridiculous to back into CFP three years in a row without playing in a Conference Championship game imho.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:29 PM ^
Not this year.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:29 PM ^
One question, why should Texas lose ? Asking for a friend.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:32 PM ^
Fits the posters paranoid narrative? My $.02
November 26th, 2023 at 2:29 PM ^
There's a slim chance, but even the ESPN groupthinkers were saying that the M-OSU game yesterday was like a playoff game that OSU lost. I thought their chance would've been better if either Alabama or FSU lost last night (which definitely seemed to be real possibilities) but now it's pretty much over. Michigan, Georgia/Alabama, Washington/Oregon, Texas/FSU
#BeatIowa
November 26th, 2023 at 2:48 PM ^
Im really confused on in what world people think Georgia would be ranked 5th after nearly 3 undefeated seasons. Its not happening. Georgia is in no matter what.
November 26th, 2023 at 3:04 PM ^
Agreed. Two teams have already punched their tickets into the CFP no matter how their champ games go:
-Georgia
-Michigan
#GoBlue
November 26th, 2023 at 3:19 PM ^
Because who do you leave out? Assuming TX and FSU win, there are too many undefeated or 1-loss conference champs. In that scenario you would have:
M
bama
pac 12
All but guaranteed and then one spot for one of:
tx
fsu
AND GA
i think in this instance, SEC couldn’t scoop up two teams especially because this SEC hasn’t been very good…
November 26th, 2023 at 4:41 PM ^
I was thinking about this scenario. If Bama wins, you have bama for sure, and then wash/Oregon winner. If fsu is undefeated, doesn't it come down to UGA vs UM for 4th, both with one loss in the champ game? And UGA is ahead of UM now, and will have a better loss.
I'd love UM to be a lock, but need UGA to win for it to be dead certain.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:29 PM ^
No, they don't.
November 26th, 2023 at 3:16 PM ^
Well stated.
3 simple words was all that was needed.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:30 PM ^
Why would Washington drop below OSU if they lose? They will be 12-1 with their only loss coming against Oregon, a team they already beat. 12-1 is better than 11-1. And they will be a conference title game participant, unlike OSU.