Softball: More Big Ten Brooms, NCAA Dreams Revived

The Wolverines had four games this week, finishing the season series with Michigan State and hosting Nebraska over the weekend.

Second place in the Big Ten was on the line. The Cornhuskers were 44th in RPI - likely on the NCAA bubble. They're 30th in the country in run-scoring, spurred by leadoff hitter and shortstop Billie Andrews, who has an .821 slugging percentage and 15 home runs on the season.

Michigan won all four games this weekend, two close ones, two not-so-close ones. The Wolverines are now 33-14 on the year, 14-3 in the Big Ten. They trail Northwestern by a half-game in the conference standings. Michigan has won 19 of 22 games since mid-March, the only three losses at Northwestern. They are now 13-0 at home.

Tuesday: Michigan 5, Michigan State 1

On Tuesday, a solo game hosting the Spartans. Both teams went with their number-two starters.

On paper, an easy victory over the last-place team in the Big Ten, 103rd in RPI. Michigan got to Ashlyn Roberts right away, five hits and a hit batter chasing Roberts with just one out in the bottom of the first. They led, 5-0. But they only netted two singles over 5 2/3 innings against reliever Madison Taylor. Freshman Erin Hoehn started for Michigan, allowing just four baserunners over 6 1/3 innings.

Friday: Michigan 4, Nebraska 3 (9 innings)

The challenge for Lauren Derkowki was keeping Andrews from breaking games open. Andrews was 0-for-3 with a walk and a strikeout against her. Mission accomplished as the teams traded runs and finished seven innings tied, 2-2. Derkowski only allowed two hits through seven, but walked four and plunked another quartet of Huskers. Nebraska's Samantha Bland opened the eighth with a home run.

Michigan is at its best trailing late, however. In this one, they almost waited too long. With two out and no one on, Indy Langford bunted for a single. Maddie Erickson hit a soft liner to right field that Caitlynn Neal dove for and nearly made a spectacular game-ending catch. Even though the ball didn't go far and the center fielder, Brooke Andrews, was backing up as she should, Langford was on the move. You have to watch this one a couple of times to believe the distance she travels so quickly without skipping any bases. Langford was headed for home no matter what and that seemed to take Andrews by surprise, who made a poor throw, the run scoring easily.

Hannah George relieved Derkowski in the ninth and kept the Cornhuskers off the board. With one out in the bottom of the ninth, freshman Ava Costales blasted her sixth home run of the season so far over the left-center field fence that the defense barely reacted. Yet another walk-off win for the Wolverines.

Saturday: Michigan 6, Nebraska 5

The Wolverines, for a change, stormed out to a big lead. Ellie Sieler homered to lead off the bottom of the first and Keke Tholl hit her 13th home run in the second as Michigan went on top, 5-0. Nebraska scored four in the top of the third, capped with an Emerson Cope home run. When starter Erin Hoehn hit the first two batters in the fourth, with a 6-4 lead, George took over on the mound.

George got out of the jam and allowed only three hits and an unearned run in four innings of relief, preserving the victory. She has four victories in the last two weekends - the first four of her Michigan career.

Sunday: Michigan 11, Nebraska 3 (6 innings)

Ella Stephenson, who has been named Big Ten freshman of the week twice this month, provided a good share of the offense today, becoming the first Michigan player to triple twice in a game this century. She capped the scoring with a walk-off (for the mercy rule) two-run home run in the sixth inning. Derkowski ewnt the distance with a six-hitter, allowing only one earned run.

Billie Andrews had three singles and two walks in twelve plate appearances this weekend. Derkowski was particularly tough on her, and that's one of the biggest reasons the Wolverines swept the series.

Coach Bonnie Tholl dropped redshirt freshman Lilly Vallimont to seventh in the order, moving Stephenson up to fifth - her first lineup change in weeks. Vallimont has been in a slump recently, likely coinciding with taking over full-time catching duties. I wonder if it would be a good idea to give Vallimont more time at first base again, even though she is the better defensive option behind the plate. On the other hand, Keke Tholl has been hitting as well as anyone lately, and perhaps that's because she's not catching lately. It's a very physically demanding position. No easy answer there. Coach Tholl has shown great judgment managing this young team this season, so I'm sure she's watching the situation carefully.

NCAA Discussion:

Going into the weekend, Michigan was at 50 in RPI - which was exactly their RPI spot when the NCAA selection committee met last year. That made them sixth team out, based on RPI alone. Number-42 South Alabama had the best RPI among the non-NCAA teams, 45th-ranked Notre Dame had the worst RPI among the invited at-large teams. You can't get a better predictor than RPI unless you're adept at mind-reading NCAA committees, and I'll bet you a hamburger that you aren't.

Last year, four Big Ten teams were in - conference champ Northwestern (6th, and a host), Minnesota (26th), Indiana (31st) and Nebraska (39th). The Big Ten had lots of near-misses, including Penn State (44th), Ohio State (46th), Maryland (49th) and Michigan.

The Big Ten is down this year - no top-25 ESPN team, though Northwestern is the top also-receiving-votes school. If meeting before the weekend, the committee would likely have invited Penn State (32nd) and the Wildcats (34th), with Indiana (42nd) and Nebraska (44th) in the bubble zone and Michigan again looking on without much hope.

I've mentioned before that I don't think Michigan can earn an NCAA bid without winning the conference tournament. But sweeps really move a team's RPI. This week, they polished off the two-game sweep of Michigan State and Nebraska gives them five sweeps in conference play. Their three Big Ten losses were all to Northwestern (one of the Wildcats' many sweeps). If Michigan wins the season series at Penn State, which would almost certainly clinch at least second place in the Big Ten, their RPI will probably move enough into at-large range that even a loss in the tournament would keep them on the right side of the bubble.

Next week:

A Tuesday match at Oakland (145th) - a team the Wolverines beat, 2-0, to open their home schedule last month, and the all-important weekend series at Penn State. The Nittany Lions rally behind freshman Bridget Nemeth - 28th in the NCAA in ERA (1.51) entering this weekend. They were 66th in run scoring (5.24 runs per game), just ahead of Michigan (5.18 runs, 67th). Getting to Nemeth would convincingly demonstrate that this is a far better Michigan team than the one we saw open the season.

All these games become far more important than they looked a week or so ago because of RPI. When they were only playing for conference seeding, second versus third meant almost nothing. Now, every game can make a big difference.