Perkis-Size Me

December 9th, 2023 at 5:32 PM ^

It’s remarkable to me that despite teams like the Yankees and Dodgers having the kind of essentially unlimited payroll that they need to build super teams, and then they actually go about and build those super teams, the Yankees haven’t won a championship in nearly 15 years, and although the Dodgers have won recently, it’s only been one championship. 

Meanwhile, teams like the Rays go out and moneyball their way into the playoffs and have nearly the same levels of overall success. At least in the last 10-15 years or so. 

Guess it just goes to show that in baseball, more often than not you can’t just buy your way into a World Series titles. 

Joined: 11/30/2011

MGoPoints: 106139

BlueMk1690

December 9th, 2023 at 6:53 PM ^

Playoff sample size is so small, it's really hard to plan for success in them in baseball. I don't think they're getting Ohtani because they think it guarantees the World Series for them. They know that it's at best a case of playing the odds.

But I think they witnessed up close and personal what Ohtani did for the Angels - and I was at multiple Angels home games in the last few years, so I saw it myself. Ohtani captures so much attention that it almost got you to forget that they have another all-time top 50 guy and first ballot Hall of Famer in Mike Trout. The commercial potential is enormous with Ohtani especially for a team in California with a big Japanese fanbase (which the Dodgers had even before this signing).

 

Joined: 02/04/2011

MGoPoints: 13005

1blueeye

December 9th, 2023 at 7:43 PM ^

Where does baseball get its money? I’m a huge baseball fan (Yankees..yeah yeah), and I stopped watching in July once it was clear my team wasn’t going to be relevant. I don’t go to games because who can afford $80 and up for a ticket for below average seats for a family with kids who don’t give a rip about anything but the concession stand. I can’t even tell you who the relevant players are on the actual good teams like the dodgers and braves. My kids don’t watch it. I don’t watch it, so where’s the money if nobody is watching and only corporate entities are regularly attending? 

Joined: 02/13/2014

MGoPoints: 2907

CFraser

December 9th, 2023 at 7:44 PM ^

I want to find the options on it because planning to pay him $70M a year when he’s 40 is a little wild unless there are club options toward the tail half. 

Joined: 08/15/2017

MGoPoints: 6280

Wendyk5

December 9th, 2023 at 8:22 PM ^

If I was a GM, I wouldn't do it. Too many questions -- will he pitch at the same level he did pre-surgery? Will he pitch at all? He's almost 30. I can get at least two good players who are on the upswing for that money, maybe three. 

Joined: 11/20/2008

MGoPoints: 68393

ca_prophet

December 10th, 2023 at 8:41 PM ^

Ignoring the spreading of the risk, even if those three good players added up to one Ohtani on the field, it's still an overall loss, because you can only put 9 players on the field at once.

Getting three players for the same money spreads the risk, but also reduces the impact and hence reward of your spending.

This is a big bet the Dodgers have put down, but it's probably not as big a bet as we think.  If "most" of the money will be deferred, they're probably paying something like $35M/yr for 10 years, with $350M to be paid out over 20 years starting after this contract expires.  This is the Bobby Bonilla deal rewritten for modern times.  That worked out well for Bonilla, and despite the punchline spin on the deal, it worked out for the Mets on the field.

Assuming Ohtani can pitch at his former for level for, say, three years (2025-2027), and hit at his current level for four, this deal gives the Dodgers a real boost to their World Series aspirations over that window.  Flags fly forever, right?  If the Tigers had managed to pull off the Series win during Miggy's tenure, it would have made enduring the last few years of his career much more palatable.  That, writ large, is what this deal is about.

 

Joined: 09/07/2010

MGoPoints: 7132

baileyb7

December 10th, 2023 at 9:59 AM ^

I doubt it is a good deal for the Dodgers - it all comes down to $/WAR.  Blowing all this money on one person (with a nominal $/WAR) will lead to a lean budget for a lot of other players over the next decade.  He and Trout played together in Anaheim for years resulting in 0 playoffs.  

Joined: 03/04/2015

MGoPoints: 379

CaliforniaNobody

December 10th, 2023 at 10:24 AM ^

It 1000% won't be the smart baseball move long term, but the money Shohei brings via Japanese viewers and advertisers and jerseys plus visitors at games is something to consider. But yeah, for a guy who might not even be a starting pitcher going forward, paying him like the 2 elite players combined he has been is beyond risky. 

Joined: 12/18/2014

MGoPoints: 14412

CaliforniaNobody

December 10th, 2023 at 10:22 AM ^

I'm glad he got the bag. That's fully guaranteed for injury btw, he could have his arms cut off today and make it all anyway. 

 

Just sad he went to a team I won't ever be rooting for, unless they're playing the Astros or some child murderers or something. 

Joined: 12/18/2014

MGoPoints: 14412

Amazinblu

December 10th, 2023 at 12:22 PM ^

Am I the only person who thinks these salaries are a bit “out of whack”?

Who pays for this?   It’s a lot more than the season ticket holder - and, turns out, IMO, who uses any product that is sponsored by any team with salaries in the stratosphere.

 

Joined: 01/22/2010

MGoPoints: 42311