A serious discussion about re-opening a state's economy (using OH as an example)

Note: This is not meant to be a political (read: partisan) discussion, but a practical discussion about how states are/can/should approach the issues of re-opening.  I believe that the board is (mostly) mature enough to limit the discussions to reasonable facts and opinions and not lapse into a political flame-war... maybe.

 

I just watched today's COVID update press conference from OH governor Mike DeWine (playfully known as "Wine with DeWine Time" around these parts - if only since the man is so bland when talking if nothing else).  The conversation was mostly about his plan to re-open businesses (to some extent... TBD) starting on May 1 and has been a bit... underwhelming.

For context, DeWine (a Republican) has been (possibly surprisingly so) one of the more pro-active governors in the nation about getting ahead of the crisis.  One good example:  on Sunday March 15th he ordered the closure of bars & restaurants statewide (well before most states had taken any significant action at all - I happened to be back in MI visiting family that weekend and they were shocked to see that such a drastic action was taken by anyone, let alone a Republican in OH).  DeWine received a great deal of criticism (in OH and elsewhere) for that action at the time (and other similar actions shortly after), but was vindicated by late March when much of the rest of the country had taken the same steps (he was even called out for praise internationally by the BBC, among other outlets).

 However, his current actions in pushing for a re-opening of non-essential businesses on May 1st seem in stark contrast to his prior string actions to secure public health.  In his press conference today, he (and his Lt. Gov) outlined various economic reasons why the state economy needs to be re-engaged yet failed to address many of the immediate health issues raised in doing so (let alone why the May 1 date was being strictly pushed).  Just a few of the issues that I saw (and some of the reporters called out in the Q & A):

1)  DeWine earlier this week said that OH would adhere to the guidelines issued by the White House, which include 2 weeks of declining daily COVID cases and deaths before a state economy can re-open.  As of yesterday, the 7 day average of both for OH are slightly increasing (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/ohio-coronavirus-cases.html) and thus could not mathematically meet that criteron - and the re-open date is 9 days from now (he said they have "flattened", which is not strictly true, but also his med chief said today that ICU admissions are trending up again).

2)  A question was asked if the supply chain (masks, disinfectant, etc.) would be ready to support businesses and individuals returning to work by May 1 - especially considering that people are having high difficulty in finding masks even now.  He had no answer to this.

3)  Another question was regarding child care and the practicalities of having working parents leave home when child care centers might not be re-opened to sufficient levels (let alone being deemed "safe" health-wise) and with all schools closed until Fall.

4)  Much attention was given to the financial/economic risks of maintaining the shutdown yet absolutely no numbers/models/estimates were provided about the expected increases in cases/deaths that were likely to be incurred with a May 1 re-open (let alone modeling how these increases would change as a function of changing the re-open date).

5)  Coordination/comparison with other states was not really addressed.  He has in the past emphasized coordination with IN and KY (which have lower cases than OH), yet hardly mentions any coordination with MI and PA (which have higher cases) - yet even in today's Q&A a reported remarked that a Jeep plant in Toledo is scheduled to re-open May 4th and a large contingent of its workers commute from Detroit.  DeWine commented that the plant would be monitored by the OH Dept of Health to keep safe operation but made no mention/discussion about the movement of possible cases across state lines (and how to address it).

6)  A day or so ago, DeWine said he had been approached by small businesses that it was greater concern to them about re-opening soon only to be forced to close quickly again upon any cases resurgence - a later re-opening date would be an easier pain for them to accept than a series of starts/stops.  No information/discussion was provided today (or thus far) about how this would be addressed and how a May 1 date is or is not optimal to avoid this.

These are simply the issues my wife & I noticed while watching today (I'm sure there are others), but it is rather concerning that the state officials seem to be pushing blindly (or perhaps half-blindly) toward this re-open date without crafting a more deliberate and coordinated response.  I know other states are facing the same issue (some more agressively, such as Georgia and S.C., and others more cautiously, such as most of the northern eastcoast, WI, IL and CA), but it just seems foolish to have such a patchwork level response to this issue nationally.

Also, I know that many on this board live/work in OH, may be from OH or have family there, and am curious what their opinions are of DeWine's response and how they would like to see the state government proceed.

Apologies to all if this seems too ranting, but I had been relatively impressed by Ohio's handling of the crisis to date  - yet this seems like a significant risk to take that could cost 1000's of lives unecessarilly.