SBNaton's Michigan Football Preview
very "meh" attitude towards Michigan in this preview.
For a team that he saved for the #2 spot for the Big Ten, and a team that he previously has said every time he starts thinking about previewing college football it "begins and ends" with Michigan, he certainly didn't seem very enthused.
You can tell when his mouth is watering when he writes about a team. I don't think his mouth was watering here.*
And aside from his obvious whiff on the D-Line stuff, which others have pointed out, his preview is generally very cautious. Maybe that's because he and others have expected great things from Michigan in the past and have come away disappointed.
He also seems to be catering to the doubters a little bit:
Maybe the offense doesn't function as smoothly under new quarterbacking. Maybe the defense doesn't click with Don Brown like it did for DJ Durkin (now Maryland's head coach). Maybe the defense will fade again. Maybe the running game still won't gain much traction.
(And if you want to bring up the fact that Michigan was excellent in Brady Hoke's first year, go for it.)
Overall I liked Bill C's preview, but I was feverishly waiting for it in the hopes that he would dispell a lot of my doubts and fears (Thanks, Michigan football PTSD), but I came away underwhelmed. He seems to be a little sleepy on the Wolverines. I'm left to assume he thinks OSU will crush it in 2016.
*Maybe he's just another Michigan hater. I dunno.
He set up that narrative from the outset so I don't think you should hold it against him. He's anticipating people doubting both the high marks Michigan's D got in advanced stats last year (when they struggled against MSU, Minn, Ind, OSU) and how Michigan has a repeatedly been overrated in these things.
When you write a stats-heavy analysis you always have to keep in mind a significant portion of your audience is going to be skeptical and try to poke holes in your arguments. He's right to anticipate those.
I thought he addressed some of the biggest doubts the team has with optimistic views (OL will improve, LB doesn't matter, should be OK w/o Wilson, etc.)
I think he was bowing to the reality that Michigan has two psychotic fanbases that see us as the root of all evil and that the "Return to Glory" narrative is starting to get a little stale around Michigan football.
I mostly read it as, I just want to talk about what the numbers show and not get a ton of snide little comments from other Big Ten fans. I mean, hell, have you ever looked at Off Tackle Empire, the supposedly all Big Ten covering site, it's a damn near constant anti-Michigan circle jerk. If he's trying to forestall all that, bless him.
Plus the narrative is tiresome to a certain extent and given his background as a Mizzou fan, I get the "Pre-season hype" raised eyebrow.
One big whiff here is the concerns about DL depth. You can see why he would think this (given last year) but he doesn't know about Mone (again, understandable). Michigan lost 4-starting caliber DLmen last year. No team in the country can survive that. That sort of attrition is incredibly unlikely to be repeated.
Otherwise an excellent preview that has a whole lot of great points, particularly for a national writer who is previewing every dang team in the country.
Connelly's questions about the team are interesting.
- "Maybe the offense doesn't function as smoothly under new quarterbacking" - QB questions are duh, but Connelly notes the 3 reasons to expect it to work (1) Harbaugh+Fisch (2) excellent veteran receivers and (3) the run game should improve.
- "Maybe the running game still won't gain much traction." -- Legit concern, especially given Newsome uncertainty and lack of OL depth, but elsewhere Connelly notes that the OL should be the best it's been in years. "In theory, the run should be stronger in 2016," Having the same scheme/OC returning for the first time since 2013 will be a big help here, given Drevno's excellent record.
- "Maybe the defense doesn't click with Don Brown like it did for DJ Durkin" -- I know the opinion of him soured after OSU last year but I think he's as bonafide as we all thought he was a year ago. What he did with the DL - which lacked a true edge rusher was particularly impressive. Brown looks great on paper, I'm ecstatic to have him, but there could be transition costs here. Hopefully they are smoothed out by MSU.
- "Maybe the defense will fade again", "Things fell apart for the line right around the time of Mario Ojemudia's injury. There was still play-making potential on the edge, but it seemed to be a tough blow for Michigan's tenuous depth. Ryan Glasgow going down was the knockout punch." The d really stopped being dominant when Ojemudia AND Godin (both starters) were out (Minnesota game). With Mone and Gary replacing Henry and Ojemudia, and everyone else returning plus freshman reinforcements, DL depth shouldn't be a problem. The only issue might be a WDE - hopefully Brown can scheme that away if it is a problem, as Durkin did.
- on average, a team can withstand turnover at LB better than it can turnover on the line or in the secondary, especially when you're not replacing All-Americans...If the line reaches its potential, the linebackers will find plenty of opportunities to make plays. -- more fuel for our collective lack of worry about LB
The part that got me was him talking about Isaac as if he had passed Smith, despite the fact Smith didn't see much time in the spring game specifically because his position was safe.
Take your point, but I'm not sure he was saying Isaac passed Smith as much as saying he represents a potential source of big plays now that he seems to be on the right track.
I'm a huge fan of Smith, but it is obvious that his speed limits the potential for long TD runs. Isaac may or may not be any better at generating big plays (his highlight yard average was better than Smith's because he got most of his carries against UNLV) but Connelly isn't the originator of this theory by any stretch.
Yeah. I don't blame him for saying it; it was just weird to see someone think Isaac is a big-play threat back right now considering he was stapled to the bench even when Smith went down. And sure, his fumbles cost him some time, but Harbaugh doesn't seem like a guy who would bench you forever if you could help win games, especially when the running game stumbled.
But it's a very common opinion with Michigan fans. The only surprising part is that someone who is more objective would think that. Still easy to explain though: Isaac's stats (at USC and M) are great on paper, because he's mostly played in easy situations.
Yeah. Roughing up UNLV and Cal certainly skew his numbers.
That said, he did legitimately look good in the spring game video I saw, and he has all the talent in the world. Wouldn't surprise me if he broke out this year.
He call Oneill the weak link, citing average punt length. Oneill seemed really good (other than MSU) - perhaps a limitation of the stats.
His ability to drop the ball inside the 10 yard line was uncanny. He rarely kicked into the endzone, and the opponents return yardage was negligible. There were a couple coverage miscues that resulted in long returns or points, but that wasn't Blake's fault.
O'Neill was great in the MSU game too, other than that one...
I know I know - "other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?" But still. And I agree with your overall point - O'Neill seemed very good last year.
The use of the word attrition is confusing me - you meant injury, correct? Not trying to be picky, but want to understand if you're talking about this year or last. Attrition would indicate losses for this year, while injury would mean you were talking about last.
M lost Mone, Ojemudia, and Glasgow last year. Is the fourth Godin? I hope it is, because it would mean you have not forgotten about Godin. And everybody forgets about Godin.
Versus second half of last season (which is rightly pointed out as a concern in the article): Glasgow back, Mone back, Charlton over to WDE, Godin back, and add Rashan Gary. Lose Willie Henry. If Marshall or someone else emerges to keep snaps off the starters, depth isn't an issue in any way this year.
Yes - that's the 4 injuries I was referring too. Out for the year sort of fits, since Godin wasn't the same after he returned (early?) and had to fill-in inside. Perhaps he was better by the bowl game but he couldn't do much against Indiana or OSU.
Godin didn't grade out well in UFR (and presumably PFF either, given their silence about him), but before he got hurt (MSU) he was starting, splitting snaps with Wormley, and playing more than Hurst and Charlton.
I don't think Michigan needs Marshall if Godin and Gary are heatlhy. The interior line is loaded, even with an injury or two. The bigger questions are if Charlton can handle WDE, how Brown deploys the position, and if Winovich or one of the freshman are effective behind Charlton.
Well worth the time to read it! Going to be a special year!
Either I'm crazy and have a bad memory...or SBNation's knock on Blake O'Neill seems unfair. MSU game aside (and just one punt attempt, really, since he was a big part of the field position battle leading up to it that day), I thought he was pretty solid all season and 4 touchbacks out of 53 punts is pretty darn good in my book...
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On defense - no. Tremendous talent on last year's squad. It's not easy to find 4 players as talented as Peppers, Lewis, Wormley, and Henry, no matter how you recruit. Most of that team's DL and secondary will play in the NFL. This year's team is probably even better, but next year will be a step down.
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I know that this is unrelated but I just unsubscribed from ESPN Insider because, well its a waste of money...
heres the link:
http://espn.go.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/17145407/college…
My guess is JD, Jabrill, and Worms
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Which is incorrect, Gary is not one of our 3 best defensive players. I don't understand why Glasgow gets no love.
I agree, Wormley/Glasgow/Charlton should be our top 3 DL in some order... BUT, what if Gary IS the best by the end of the year? That would actually be pretty exciting!
it could be Mone/Hurst/Gary. That's the awesome thing about our DL. Even a guy like Godin (who started 4 games last year on an elite defense before he got hurt) seems like he might be buried, even though he played ahead of Charlton and Hurst last year.
Seems a contradiction to call it a waste of money and then ask for the content, my friend.
Same story, different storyteller.
This season boils down to 2 (maybe 3) games. If Michigan finds a way to take care of business in East Lansing and Columbus, there's a clear path to Indianapolis, and maybe even better things.
While I think OSU could lose to Oklahoma, I'm not sure I see them dropping a game in conference anywhere other than maybe @MSU. So that means that by the time we come to town, there will be zero margin for error in that game.
OSU has a very tough road stretch in mid-October.
Night games in Madison and at the Happy Valley White Out two weeks in a row. (And Wisconsin will be coming off a bye).
I think it's likely OSU stumbles at Oklahoma, but I would not be surprised if they lose to one of Wisconsin/Penn State.
I honestly think that OSU is more likely to lose to UW/PSU than MSU this year for a few reasons:
- It's later in the season; I think that OSU will be significantly better by November than they will be in the first half of the season, due to their youth.
- Buckeyes will have revenge in mind after last year
- Spartan Stadium is definitely not as hostile of an environment as night games at Camp Randall and especially a night game White Out in Happy Valley
Wisconsin and PSU present their own challenges, but by the same token, Wisconsin could be coming into that game having already lost 3 times and physically beat to hell after playing LSU, MSU and UM all away from Madison. OSU could flat out run over them that day.
And then PSU is breaking in two new coordinators, a new QB, and half their defense, the only unit that was any good last year. Night games at Happy Valley are rough, to be sure, but I think OSU takes care of business against both of them.
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It was more so defensively.
Because offense was never our strength last year.
But in the second half of the season our defense got very weak. A 6-6 Indiana offense absolutely destroyed our defense, obviously OSU did, but even a mediocre Minnesota offense beat up our defense pretty bad.
Offensively, we got better except for OSU; our offense and defense were both horrid in that game.
I wish he would spend less time interpreting his own statistics and more time researching what people who follow the team closely and you know watched the games have written. So that would take a lot more time and money to produce an article like that, but it would avoid some of the obvious and inevitable blunders.
Did the defense slump in the second half of the season, or did it lose Ojemudia and Glasgow and fail to prepare for the spread? I guess Brian Mone and Rashan Gary didn't show up in the stats, but is anyone around here worried about D-line depth? Was Blake O'Neill a weak link or a revelation?
So we're all homers around here, and the comparitive advanced stats are really useful in telling us if we were really as good (or bad) in one area as we thought. And they're great at predicting general outcomes if you overlook the detail on every team and make the same blunders for every team. But wouldn't it be great for Connelly to identify a source for each team and collaborate on these previews to get a result that is both globally predictive and locally accurate?
He previews every single team, that is way too much time. He trusts the numbers and he is generally right to do so. Yes he misses a little on d-line depth but the QB situation is the biggest question mark followed by whether the oline can generate good push on the ground against a good defense.
This. He puts a hell of a lot of thought into these, and even if he went the extra mile on the 40 or so teams that are followed/analyzed the most, it would make an ambitious summer project that much more difficult. In any case, we already read Brian and other M writers' opinions on these topics. I find the outsider/data-driven approach refreshing as it paints a different, if imperfect picture of the upcoming season.
Regarding DL depth... I think that is a concern for almost any team without the recruiting prowess and/or stability of an Alabama. Injuries do happen. This is football. If Michigan were to lose 2-3 guys, even just for a couple weeks at a time, a group that looks as formidable as our DL does right now on paper becomes mortal. That is his point. Not that our group now isn't great or even somewhat deep, just that it fell apart (relatively so) after two key guys went down a year ago.
This is a good thing. You don't want everybody to just say the same thing.
Connelly can be forgiven for some roster ignorance given he offers a more objective view than most people with a deep knowledge of the program.
He did an adequate amount of research, but he does rely a bit on the numbers at times to give him a good view. It's why he says things like "Montae Nicholson should be good" because he played better in the back 3rd of the season, even though he was still pulled around a bunch and (I think) got beaten a couple of times against Alabama.
Overall, I think the depth he went into was great. He definitely seems a bit down on UM compared to others, but only in the sense he doesn't think they are the best bet to win a title.