Rankings Roundup after Week 4: AP, Coaches, SP+
As always, early-season caveats about SP+ apply. The preseason numbers are slowly having less weight as we get more games under our belt. Here are the numbers after week 4.
COMPARING AP, COACHES, AND SP+ (RANKINGS)
The week featured several ranked matchups. Who were the winners and losers in the polls?
Georgia and Michigan remain the consensus #1 and #2 in the polls, with SP+ giving Michigan the nod at the #1 position. It seems that the model was sufficiently happy with Michigan’s slow-motion 31-7 beatdown of Rutgers, even while many in the game thread walked away less than convinced.
Moving further down the rankings, Texas is still back! Also, the toughest bunch of tough guys from toughsville toughed out a victory over Notre Dame. That was good enough to leapfrog FSU (tough shit Seminoles). Next week it’s OSU versus the world. Those tough bastards better be ready.
We also bid Adieu to Colorado this week. I would say au revoir but I doubt we’ll be meeting again anytime soon.
In general, there’s a little bit of disagreement among the AP and Coaches polls, but otherwise they are pretty much in agreement about the top teams. The big differences are between the humans and the SP+ model. SP is not as enamored with Texas and FSU, ranking both of them considerably lower than the AP and Coaches. On the other hand, SP+ really like 3 of next year’s new B1G teams, ranking Washington, USC, and Oregon at 4, 5, and 6, respectively.
SP+ OFFENSE & DEFENSE (RANKINGS)
Damn it’s nice to see Michigan at the top. After living through the lean times, this run is really something to enjoy. Michigan also dethroned the reigning #1 defense dating back to last season, moving Iowa down one spot to #2.
As always, it’s fun to compare the offensive and defensive spreads. North Carolina is the newest leader in the “defense is optional” category, replacing USC with the largest spread between their offensive and defensive rankings. Utah is the least Pac of all top-25 Pac teams, with a top-10 defense but only the #37 ranked offense. Still, that #37 offense is better than all but the top-3 B1G teams.
Speaking of B1G teams…Woof.
Seriously? Only 5 teams can manage to field a SP+ top-40 offense while the remaining 9 teams are all ranked 70 or higher.
At this point, I’m thinking that a relegation model within the B1G wouldn’t be such a bad idea. The only problem would be finding enough teams to put in the top tier. Maybe it’s also time to start thinking about some unequal revenue sharing. I mean, it just doesn’t seem right that Oregon, Washington, and USC will come into the conference and raise it’s overall quality while getting significantly less money than the ever increasing number of dregs in the B1G. I don’t know. I’m just spitballing here. Tell me why I’m wrong.
TRENDS (RAW SP+ SCORES)
I wanted to try something new and I thought it would be interesting to look at the weekly changes in the SP+ top 25 from the preseason until now. Here they are.
Apologies for the overlapping team labels. There’s nothing I can do about that unless I make them so small they’re essentially unreadable.
Anyway, it looks like we’re starting to get some compression in the top 25, maybe as the last season’s effects get factored out. We’re definitely beginning to cluster around a few tiers. Only about 5 points currently separate #1 Michigan (nice!) from #9 Penn State.
SP+ OFFENSE AND DEFENSE (RAW SP+ SCORES)
Standard interpretation applies:
- Top-right: Good at offense and defense
- Bottom-right: Good defense, below-average offense
- Top-left: Good offense, below-average defense
- Bottom-left: Not so good at football
Now do I have your attention for a B1G relegation or unequal revenue sharing model?
SP RANKINGS BY CONFERENCE (RAW SP+ SCORES)
Horizontal lines are the average (mean) SP+ scores for each conference.
It looks like the SEC is finally starting to come down to Earth. The average SP+ rating last week was 15 points, compared to about 12.5 points this week.
Anything you find interesting?
September 25th, 2023 at 8:26 AM ^
As a man who has made many a scatter plot, I appreciate the extra effort for adding a Toughness category
Somewhere, Scott Frost feels betrayed that this stat* wasn’t tracked before, because he would have claimed at least 3 more national championships from that
September 25th, 2023 at 9:09 AM ^
I had to slip that one in there. Glad you noticed it. 😊
September 25th, 2023 at 9:12 AM ^
September 25th, 2023 at 9:44 AM ^
Not yet. For now the Toughness Index only measures the head coach’s (1) indignation at comments on message boards, (2) weird responses to some really old dude named Lou Holths, and (3) repetitive use of the word “toughness”.
Note that the data are incomplete because no other head coach feels the need to do any of these things.
September 25th, 2023 at 9:44 AM ^
Can the final victory truly be considered "tough" when the last two plays transpired with a one-player advantage over ND?
It's things like this that cause me to believe with Ryan Day's OSU, that the more things change, the more they stay the same.
September 25th, 2023 at 9:48 AM ^
September 25th, 2023 at 10:16 AM ^
ND absolutely lost that game. They pissed away at least a half dozen opportunities to put the game away.
If you had the luck of the Irish, you'd wish you were English instead.
September 25th, 2023 at 10:33 AM ^
I'm still annoyed ND choked because now I get the sense OSU is making the playoff. We saw last year a loss to Michigan doesn't eliminate them. So yeah I think UGA and OSU are the favorites for the playoff now.
September 25th, 2023 at 10:39 AM ^
If OSU plays the same against PSU and Michigan, they'll have 2 losses come selection day.
September 25th, 2023 at 11:33 AM ^
PSU will choke against OSU in the same fashion. It's at OSU and PSU always finds a way to lose that game.
September 25th, 2023 at 12:52 PM ^
PSU is not beating OSU. Iowa D did what they could in the first half but their O did not give them a chance. I don't see PSU playing the kind of D ND played against OSU sans the last two plays LOL
September 25th, 2023 at 3:54 PM ^
The only reason OSU backed into the playoffs last year after losing to Michigan is because USC couldn't close the deal and win the Pac12 championship, and Clemson lost to South Carolina. Both USC and Clemson would have been conference champions with only one loss if they had won those games - and if that were the case, either of those teams would have beat out OSU for the last spot in the playoffs. Plus, after Georgia, the vaunted SEC didn't have another team with fewer than 2 losses, so that eliminated a second SEC Team (Saban's lobbying notwithstanding).
2022 was the luckiest perfect storm for OSU to get in to the playoffs with a loss to Michigan. I think it's really unlikely that we see something like that happen again this year.
September 25th, 2023 at 1:53 PM ^
You know what means you're tough? When OTHER PEOPLE recognize you as being tough. Calling yourself tough simply reeks of insecurity.
September 25th, 2023 at 10:31 AM ^
I'm still working on my graphs.
September 25th, 2023 at 8:27 AM ^
That’s a lot of information.
September 25th, 2023 at 8:29 AM ^
We'll see how it shakes out as the season progresses, but the most impressive teams thus far, according to the eyeball test, have been (in no particular order) Texas, Penn St, Oregon and Washington. Notre Dame should still be in the top 10.
No way in hell is USC a top 10 team.
September 25th, 2023 at 9:15 AM ^
September 25th, 2023 at 9:54 AM ^
Have you seen USC play offense? They're pretty good...
September 25th, 2023 at 11:31 AM ^
I have. Have you seen the rest of their game? Not very good. Certainly not top 10. They are the 4th best team in the Pac-12 at best.
September 25th, 2023 at 12:53 PM ^
So against Colorado USC will score TDs on every possession, and CU will score TDs on half of their possessions. 70-35 USC wins. And yes, I am expecting 10 possessions each, despite the new rules, because their average scoring drive will be about 3 plays.
September 25th, 2023 at 5:52 PM ^
They win by scoring 24 more than the other team on their way to a 52-28 victory
We win by scoring 24 more on our way to a 31-7 victory
Their way is more fun to watch but ours is probably more sound and repeatable. People love to be entertained though and that can change peoples perspective. Such as "why are we playing this garbage OOC schedule?" meanwhile we are having historically successful seasons. Also "why dont we pass more!" with MSU and TCU losses being our most prolific passing games the last 2+ seasons
Their defense has issues but they have the firepower to give Oregon and Washington a run.
September 25th, 2023 at 8:30 AM ^
Hopefully OSU can out tough bye week.
September 25th, 2023 at 8:32 AM ^
Bye week claims its fair share of victims every year. College kids do stupid things, get caught, get in trouble.
September 25th, 2023 at 8:54 AM ^
We've all seen MSU lose to bye a time or two.
September 25th, 2023 at 9:28 AM ^
Columbus is pretty tight. Not much of a peep coming out of there, even in a bye week.
September 25th, 2023 at 8:46 AM ^
Top five for Big Ten make my impressions, but surprised by Rutgers ranking. After Minnesota imploded, I think Rutgers might be the sixth best team in the conference.
September 25th, 2023 at 5:55 PM ^
The rankings in the big ten are
Tier 1 UM,PSU,OSU
Tier 2 Maryland, Wisconsin
Tier 3 Rutgers, Minnesota, Iowa
Tier 4 Who cares
September 25th, 2023 at 8:51 AM ^
Maybe it’s also time to start thinking about some unequal revenue sharing. I mean, it just doesn’t seem right that Oregon, Washington, and USC will come into the conference and raise it’s overall quality while getting significantly less money than the ever increasing number of dregs in the B1G. I don’t know. I’m just spitballing here. Tell me why I’m wrong.
I get what you're saying about reducing payouts to some of the lower-level schools. However, they still do provide a substantial benefit. Playing the Bowling Greens and UNLVs of the world allows top teams to shake off rust from summer. Moving on to the Rutgers' and Staee's should give an elevated level of competition to prepare for the other top teams.
September 25th, 2023 at 8:55 AM ^
Yeah, every group has to have a doormat. Even if you kick all the shit teams to the curb, someone is invariably going to fall to the cellar. And with the inequal manner of talent acquisition in college compared to pros (recruiting v drafting), once there it'll be harder to get out without having some tomato cans to crush occasionally.
September 25th, 2023 at 9:19 AM ^
September 25th, 2023 at 11:22 AM ^
I guess I'm talking about things like revenue for CFP appearances, bowl games, etc. Currently, the conference gets $6 million for each team that makes the playoffs and $4 million for each team that gets a non-playoff bowl. My understanding, and this may have changed, is that the conference then divides this money evenly among all teams. I just don't know if Nebraska, Indiana, Northwestern, etc. really deserve the same share as the teams that actually made the playoffs or a bowl game. It's possible to argue that they actually do more harm by bringing down the overall strength of schedule.
These teams might still be able to make up for their losses in football by fielding competitive teams in basketball, where they could keep more of the revenue for making the NCAA tournament.
September 25th, 2023 at 8:58 AM ^
Yes, the Big 10 should go to a 10 game conference schedule and I don't care who we play out of conference anymore. Not enamored by adding U Dub and Oregon because I see Oregon in Nebraskas spot 20 years from now, but next year the Big 10 will at least double the "elite" teams in conference.
September 25th, 2023 at 9:14 AM ^
oregon isn't going anywhere with Phil Knight and Nike money. Plus they're in a better recruiting area than Nebraska since they were shut out of texas after leaving the big 12
September 25th, 2023 at 6:06 PM ^
And how close they were to being shut out of LA. Big Ten couldve killed Oregon this summer.
September 25th, 2023 at 9:09 AM ^
Our offense is going to have to get to another level to compete for a national title. I know competition caveats apply, and a three score lead results in shutting it down. We have seen operational tests of Death Star subsystems, but I remain skeptical until they are fully integrated.
September 25th, 2023 at 9:12 AM ^
I agree with you, but at this point, I just want to run the table in our conference. I’ll worry about the national stuff later. And yes, I know, I said the same thing last year…but damn, I just want us to absolutely beat the brakes off Third Base this season.
September 25th, 2023 at 9:19 AM ^
I’ve been negged for being, well, negative about this offense, but I’ll stick to my guns.
1. unless we change something significant, this is shaping up to be a very familiar Harbaughffense: good, but not great.
2. I’ll believe in an “open” or “pass-first” or even “balanced” offense the day I see Harbaugh deploy it. Maybe even the day AFTER. It shouldn’t take “NFL talent at every position” to roll out even a medium-scoring passing game.
September 25th, 2023 at 9:27 AM ^
September 25th, 2023 at 9:45 AM ^
Good question. I think the most honest answer is “I don’t know.”
I definitely don’t want the team to stubbornly call passes the same way they stubbornly call runs, even if it isn’t working.
The fact that our offense is trending toward the same level, despite having a really good QB and a really good Everything Else…it’s frustrating, because it means that there’s an artificial ceiling being imposed.
September 25th, 2023 at 10:05 AM ^
September 25th, 2023 at 12:43 PM ^
If it equates to "not setting downs on fire" we've all been yearning for, for years now, then yes 50:50 isn't that crazy of a goal. If the Oline can't protect then that's one thing. If it's fully capable and JJ is dependent enough, then 52:48 is my mark! The 60:40 is fine in theory but maintaining that ratio just in the name of Glenn Schembechler...yuck. For crying out loud stop running into the 9-man box and do more 1st down play-action or RB passes/WR screens.
September 25th, 2023 at 6:15 PM ^
Delays on what looks like a passing play that gets the defense stepping back. Now go see what Corum does.
Screens will crush a team launching 9 humans into the A/B gap
Passing every down until a team changes their entire "launch to the middle D" could be revolutionary. Imagine being up 28-0 mid second quarter and a team throws in the towel and starts dropping 8. At that point never pass again because its game over.
Pass/Pass/Run/Run (go for it on 4th if you are past your 40) good luck trying to stop us from getting 10 yards with that.
September 25th, 2023 at 9:56 AM ^
I would just like to come out and put a foot on the opponents throat until they give in.
I loved it when Washington faked the kneel just to get another score in before halftime (not the classiest move but it was demoralizing for Sparty).
Or Oregon faking a punt from deep inside their own zone. It was basically saying we’re gonna keep scoring and there’s nothing you can do about it.
September 25th, 2023 at 11:14 AM ^
It's not just the Harbaughffense, it's the Michigan narrative for 50+ years from the time Bo was losing routinely in the Rose Bowl. The defense has almost always been "good enough". It's the offense that hasn't been able to compete at that elite level. Maybe it's my personal scar tissue from all those years of fandom, but I feel like I'm seeing the same movie again this year.
September 25th, 2023 at 11:29 AM ^
Could it be a function of Midwestern sensibilities and wisdom of age? Most of the Michigan coaches since Bo (included) were born in Ohio/Michigan; and became head coaches in Michigan in their 40s. So they were all content with just winning, and relying on talent+practice to win out.
Don't know for sure.
September 25th, 2023 at 1:01 PM ^
There is a change this year. This is not a Air Raid team and it will never be. But they are definitely throwing more than what they did last year and they are throwing more on early downs. I don't have data to back it up, but I feel that it is looking better. Another factor is they are willing to run JJ more this early in the year. All good signs. Baby steps.
September 25th, 2023 at 9:25 AM ^
Toughness. Classic. Well played.
Is paying for ESPN+ website jazz the only way to see the SP+ charts?
Thanks for this.
September 25th, 2023 at 9:50 AM ^
As far as I know, yes. It might be available with a Disney+ subscription, but I’m not sure (I don’t have one). I just subscribe for the football season then cancel.
September 25th, 2023 at 11:20 AM ^
I have it through Disney+/Hulu/ESPN+ subscription.
September 25th, 2023 at 3:04 PM ^
If you go to http://archive.today/ and paste the ESPN article link in the field at the bottom. This works on a lot of paywalled articles.