Rankings Roundup after Week 12: CFP, SP+, FEI

I wasn’t planning on doing one of these this week because, well, we all know what’s coming. Focusing on rankings this week, especially the rankings of other teams, just seems unnatural. But I’ve been doing this all season so I wanted to see it through. 

I dropped the AP rankings and replaced them with the FEI, which I know many people here like as much or more than SP+. So here you go. 

COMPARING CFP, SP+, AND FEI (RANKINGS)

The advanced stats are pretty much in agreement about Michigan and OSU. Michigan is the consensus #1 to both SP+ and FEI, while OSU is the consensus #3. The humans have OSU at #2 and Michigan at #3.

FEI and SP+ also both agree that Oregon is a top-4 team (#2 in FEI and #4 in SP+) and drop Washington down a few spots (#7 & #9, respectively). 

For those that want to keep track, here is the number CFP top 25 teams by conference:

• SEC: 6
• Pac 12: 4
• Big 12: 4
• B1G: 4
• ACC: 4
• Independent: 1
• AAC: 1
• CUSA: 1

Here’s a deeper look at the SP+/FEI offensive and defensive ranks for the CFP top 25.

Again, there’s a pretty close agreement between SP+ and FEI. Both have OSU and Michigan as the consensus #1 and #2 defensively. Offensively, Michigan is ranked #3 (FEI) and #6 (SP+), while OSU is ranked #13 (FEI) and #19 (SP+). I don’t know how these FEI and SP+ numbers compare to The Game of years past, but it doesn’t really matter. Shit’s about to get real. LFG!

B1G AND MICHIGAN OPPONENT SP+ RANKINGS

Meanwhile, in the B1G…

UNLV would be the 7th (SP+) or the 9th (FEI) best team in the B1G. BGSU is ranked higher than Indiana and Purdue (SP+) or Indiana and Michigan State (FEI). 

TRENDS (RAW SP+ SCORES)

Here are the weekly changes in the SP+ top 25 from the preseason through Week 12

Michigan has been trending in the right direction since week 7. So has OSU, though they have plateaued the last two weeks. 

SP+ OFFENSE AND DEFENSE (RAW SP+ SCORES)

Standard interpretation applies:

• Top-right: Good at offense and defense
• Bottom-right: Good defense, below-average offense
• Top-left: Good offense, below-average defense
• Bottom-left: Not so good at football

Recall that these are standardized coefficients, not raw SP+ scores. Each team’s offensive and defensive score represents the number of standard above/below the mean that category. For example, Michigan is 1.3 standard deviations above the the average SP+ offense, and 2.3 standard deviations below (this is good) the average SP+ defense.   

Only 3 B1G offenses are above the P5 average, though I have no idea how PSU is up there. The four worst SP+ offenses in the P5 are all in the B1G. 

SP+ RANKINGS BY CONFERENCE (RAW SP+ SCORES)

Note that I’ve replaced the mean SP+ scores for each conference with the median (the horizontal lines for each conference). Over the last few weeks it’s been painfully obvious that the median is a better indicator of central tendency, at least for the B1G (see graph in first comment). 

Can you hear that giant sucking sound? That’s the sound of all but 3 B1G teams circling the drain. Now does anyone still believe that equal revenue sharing is a good idea?

Need more convincing? Take a look at the B1G offenses.

The B1G is the second worst offensive conference. And I don’t mean only among the P5, but in all of FBS. Only the MAC has a worse median offensive score.   

Fuck the B1G! Fuck Ohio State! 

Go Blue!