Random Basketball Rumblings (feel free to add insight/thoughts)

Submitted by MaizeBlueA2 on October 1st, 2021 at 12:05 AM

Based on comments from the major blog sites, insiders, etc. - below is what I've been able to compile (without stealing/sharing any premium content).

Overall: This team has a real chance for another deep tournament run, it's ceiling may be higher than last year's squad (I personally don't believe it is)...but it's floor is a lot lower.  Last year's team had so many known quantities (Livers, Wagner, Brooks, even Brown).  This year's team has crazy potential. Prediction, a much lower seed, but they get just as far as last year's squad. A team that peaks late.

Per multiple comments, the thing that makes it more likely that this group reaches its potential...is the culture.  Juwan Howard continues to build on Beilein's culture, but this is officially HIS team.  There are still holdovers, but this is 100% Juwan's program now, while before he was really good (and patient) at gradually building the program he envisioned, never tearing down the old, but slowly adding his style, approach, values, etc.

Eli Brooks is the unequivocal leader of this team and his presence cannot be understated.  He is also a huge reason this team can reach its full potential. 

Dickinson: Working on his right and extending his range. The range seems to be coming along faster, he's just not as comfortable with the right hand as he should be.  He's gone after this year, but the right hand may be a reason he should stay (he is more Garza/Kaminsky, but he thinks he's an NBA player now).  That said, his game doesn't necessarily translate to the NBA, but right hand or not...he's still the biggest man on the floor 9 times out of 10 in college.  He's going to be fine, he's improved, and from what I've read, his biggest improvement is his conditioning.  It'll be needed, because it's small ball behind him.

Johns: A lot of predictions from national pundits for him to be the breakout guy, but I think that's just lazy to be honest. The Michigan insiders all seem to agree that he's pretty much the same player he was last year...for better and for worse.  He's a year older and right now he's the starter, so his biggest improvement is his confidence...he's a leader.  He's a consistent outside shot away from being lethal, but he's still on fire one day and ice cold the next (summer workout notes, they've only had a day of practice so nothing from that).

Houstan: Silky smooth, lights out shooter, "sneaky effective driving the ball"...because he has a nice pull-up mid-range shot and he is also big enough to shoot over guards that get switched onto him.  His game has a maturity to it, he knows what he wants to do when the ball is in his hands.  Right now, biggest weakness per two insiders is his defense.  Capable, but no where close to Wagner, the guy he's replacing.

Brooks: All-around game continues to improve, will have a long career playing pro basketball if he wants one (not necessarily in the NBA).  In fact, one person wrote that he's the perfect international player, he's like one of those annoying effective guards from Spain or Australia that would torch Team USA for 30+ in a loss.  That tells me he's just efficient, nothing stands out, but he will make you pay if you give him space.  By far the heart and soul and leader of this team.  Huge leader all summer.

Jones: Early reports had him MUCH better than Mike Smith, it sounds like that isn't necessarily the case...it just depends on which Mike Smith you're talking about.  Jones is a different kind of player all together, he can play "bully ball" and he likes to attack downhill.  His outside shot is good enough, but it's not Smith when Smith got hot.  His game is much more of an NBA game, which suits Howard's style of play.  Defensively, he's "fine," but by all accounts he has another level that he has not tapped into.  The coaches have to unlock that part of his game and infuse a little Chaundee Brown into him (which sounds like most NBA players).  Last comment, sounds like there's no ego.  He's all-in and a leader on this team with Brooks.

 

-----Reserves-----

Diabate: A 2-year guy unless he's just insistent on the NBA.  "A guy that could go 15-20 after 2 years or 5th after 3...will likely take the 15-20 and Michigan fans will be ridiculous about it (like normal)."  EVERYONE says he's really limited offensively outside of lay-ups, lobs and put-backs.  Defensively he's not there because he's learning, but the light will go on at some point and he'll be closing out games while Hunter sits (offense/defense).  Someone mentioned Caris LeVert.  Caris was all over the place his freshman year, it wasn't until the tournament where things started to slow down.  Diabate doesn't seem that far behind, but it may take the non-conference schedule for him to find a rhythm defensively.  When he does, Johns better watch out.

Williams: Will be the most improved.  The Caris comparison applies to him as well.  He was a mess most of the regular season, just a ball of energy, but moving way too fast.  It's starting to slow for Terrance and he looks like a potential starter.  "He's basically Johns, right now - today, without the same experience, size, and strength. But he's improving while Johns looks a lot like he did last year."  Sounds like he's taken on the energy role that Brown had last year.  Should see plenty of time (although same for Diabate) when Johns is playing the 5.  Has versatility, plays the 3 as well.

Bufkin: Rivals put a write-up on him today, I won't reference it.  But up until this point, all signs pointed to him being extremely versatile and rivaling Houstan for most ready to play right now.  He can play three positons, but he's mostly an off guard behind Brooks.  That said, there has been talk of him playing some PG or splitting the second team PG duties (at times) with Jackson.  Just as Brooks and Jones do for the starters.  He's capable to be a big PG down the road, though it's not the plan right now.  Words you hear to describe him are: "smooth," "high IQ," "natural," and "will contribute."

Jackson: If Williams isn't most improved, that's only because Zeb beats him out for it.  Jackson will be in the rotation, he's solidified that.  The comments on him seem to be that his game has "matured."  Less turnover prone, he understands the offense better and how he fits within it.  He might be used in a "microwave" type of role because his mentality is naturally to attack.  Shot is better, but still inconsistent.  Gets to the rim more than he did last year, still could use another 10 lbs.  Likely a 4 year guy.

Collins: This is where things start to drop a bit.  Collins seems like the natural backup PG, but he's not there yet.  Right now you're more likely to see Brooks or Jones stay in and Bufkin or Jackson come in.  If both Brooks and Jones are out...it's still Bufkin and Jackson right now.  Collins isn't a big guy, but he can be "a little bulldog" in the paint.  His shot isn't good enough to warrant a ton of playing time and he's not an all-time great perimeter defender like X/Zavier Simpson.  He feels like he'll be last year's Zeb Jackson.  Some DNPs, more time during the end of the year.  Already a candidate for "breakout player for 2022-23."

Tschetter: A lot of hype on him early, but it's started to die down.  Honestly, I wonder if some of that was country white kid comes in with no expectations, has some real game, gets hyped.  Or maybe it's just because he was the lowest rated recruit of the bunch.  Then again, some of the hype was from the coaches, Martelli in particular.  Either way, he surprised folks early and he'll play this year.  The kid can shoot.  Someone said he reminds them of "that one kid we had that was solid and then transfered to Maryland." (Evan Smotrycz)

Barnes: Had the toughest transition, was the opposite of Tschetter.  Per Rivals, it took him the longest to get settled in and comfortable.  However, he's already improved and finding his place.  Right now, not likely to play a ton, but he's a 4 or 5 year guy that could start for 2.  May have a Johns-like trajectory.  Not a lot of info on his game.

Nunez: Same player, but much more famous, right now is the best shooter on the team.

Howard: A great kid, clearly loves the weight room (?!), and not a pain in the ass for being the head coaches kid.  Nothing on his game, but you have to assume he's improved and could be called on for a few minutes if you had to break the glass for an emergency.

 

If I had to guess...I'd say #5 seed, bow out in the second weekend of the tournament.  Though I wouldn't be surprised for a second if the talent all comes together and this team is in the Final Four.  Potential is there, I just think it's too early to tell.

trueblueintexas

October 1st, 2021 at 12:36 AM ^

Thank you OP and…Thank you! That was a great overview. I think if anyone can get the most out of these pieces, it’s this staff. A lot of versatile options and different skill sets which can be mixed and matched together. Just need one guy to step up and be a consistent scoring option beyond Hunter and the Jones/Brooks combo. Maybe it’s Houstan by the end of the year. Maybe it’s Jackson or Bufkin. If that happens, it will be a very fun year.

bsand2053

October 1st, 2021 at 12:37 AM ^

Very much appreciate this write up, OP!  I've been starved for basketball intel so this was really informative.  

I'm surprised to hear you say this team has a lower ceiling than last year's squad (definitely agree with the lower floor).  If Jones can be a solid three point shooter and Johns can be stable I think the sky is this limit, offensively.  We'd have plus shooters at four starting positions with the potential to really punish teams that dig on Hunter in the post.  

Losing Livers, Brown and Wagner (and Mike Smith turned into a good defender too) will be challenging for the defense though.  I was hoping for better news from you on Caleb's defense as I had heard that he has the potential to be very good on that side of the ball.  As for Moussa, I can't wait until he's ready to be on the floor with Hunter.  Those two would absolutely wreck shit defensively.  I wonder if Juwan will hedge more with Moussa.    

I just listened to Martelli's sport on Sam's show.  Lots of coachspeak but it sounds like everyone is working hard and buying in to Juwan's culture.  He did mention that Hunter is working on cutting down the turnovers which was a very frustrating problem last year.  

Hail to the Vi…

October 1st, 2021 at 8:36 AM ^

Is surprising to hear lower ceiling perhaps, but I would bet at this point it's not clear whether or not this team can play defense like last year's team.

As good as Livers and Wagner were offensively, where Michigan really beat teams and won the B1G regular season was on defense. When Brooks, Brown, Wagner and Livers were on the court together, they could lock it down (Washington, OSU going bananas aside).

Sounds like right now, you could see this team matching last years squad's offense pretty easily, but the defense still has a ways to go. That's not overly surprising, especially for a young team. It does sound like this team can go deeper on the bench comfortably, which will be a huge asset come late January into February.

Thanks for the content, OP! Very much looking forward to watch this young squad develop over the season.

blueheron

October 1st, 2021 at 12:47 AM ^

Thanks very much, OP. It's nice to see Williams and Jackson mentioned as rotation players. There seemed to be at least some risk that they'd get lost in the shuffle.

As for the ceiling, Wagner isn't easy to quantify, but none of the other departures strike me as irreplaceable. In fact, I look forward to seeing several new players who have the potential to play as-needed hero ball (when the shot clock is ticking down and something reasonable needs to be tossed up). Michigan didn't really have that available last year.

ldevon1

October 1st, 2021 at 5:14 AM ^

I'm curious where you got all these tidbits from, since they haven't had a real practice yet, but it was a fun read nonetheless. I think they will be better than a 5 seed. I guess it's just everyone's opinion at this point, but I see a higher ceiling and lower floor. They will have more scoring options and more rotational pieces. They have BIG title potential, but if the young guys don't come together I could see a 3rd place finish and 5 seed, but I can easily seem them winning the B1G and getting a 1 seed. I'm on this roller coaster called football right now, so I can wait. 

Grampy

October 1st, 2021 at 7:08 AM ^

Solid writeup, OP.  I'll believe that Nunez is the best shooter on the team when I see it.  I hope Jones puts as much heart into the team as Smith did, we could sure use a more physical presence in the paint after the last 5 years.  Really excited to see if Juwan can make a team out of his pieces and parts.

Matt EM

October 1st, 2021 at 7:42 AM ^

My informed opinion/a few tidbits:

 

Williams - recently was the best shooter on the team in the 3 minute drill by a WIDE margin. Connected on 49 triples in that timespan. For context, guards/wings usually got up between 62-68 shots. "Can switch 1-5". I'd expect him to be a big part of the rotation. 

Dickinson - hitting threes in drills at a respectable clip, but not necessarily connecting in 3 on 3 scenarios in pick and pop action. Has the look of an improved shooter though. Now more comfortable with a jumphook over his left shoulder/right hand in 3 on 3 scenarios. 

Diabate - the best natural defender on the team by a healthy margin. He does things in drills and 3 on 3 scenarios that don't seem possible for a freshman. Athleticism off the charts. Hass added 10-15 pounds of muscle mass. Shooting still a work in progress.

Bufkin - has added 10-12 pounds of muscles mass. The plan is to play him on-ball a bit in a versatile role

Houstan - staff very high on his shooting ability

Barnes - had a slow start, coming around a bit now. 

cobra14

October 1st, 2021 at 8:31 AM ^

I am huge Williams fan and have been. He is a worker and a great team player. He is going to surprise people this year.

 

I know a couple things that will happen this year: Team will improve throughout the year. This staff will put kids in the right spots to be successful. Correct in game adjustments will be made by the staff. 

OldSchoolWolverine

October 1st, 2021 at 8:01 AM ^

Am rooting for Williams... he plays like a man and you can see his presence on the court.  

Second...  The "coutnry White kid"  comment is unbecoming....   unless you think "inner city black kid" is ok, and we all know it isn't.  Cannot have it both ways.  

TeslaRedVictorBlue

October 1st, 2021 at 8:06 AM ^

Thanks for sharing, but what do you mean holdouts? All the rotation guys are his guys. 

Also, I wouldn't say Terrence was a mess. He made mistakes but he had a role and was fun to watch

True Blue Grit

October 1st, 2021 at 8:28 AM ^

Great writeup and info.  Thanks!

I'm not worried at all about Moussa's D.  He's going to be excellent with his athletic ability and energy - once he figures things out.  

Interesting update on Barnes.  Sam Webb has been beating the drum on Barnes for a while that he may end up with the highest upside in this class.  Remains to be seen obviously, but there's still lots of time.  

Rhino77

October 1st, 2021 at 8:37 AM ^

Good stuff but…


“Honestly, I wonder if some of that was country white kid comes in with no expectations, has some real game, gets hyped.“

It’s 2021, the “white” basketball player thing is played out. I think the piece still stands without race being brought up. You didn’t mention it with anyone else. 

t0nic

October 1st, 2021 at 8:46 AM ^

I have a hard seeing Michigan drop to a #5 seed even with defensive regression. I do think this team though is gonna be way better at end then beginning. 
 

3 McDonald’s All-Americans plus the other new additions and we don’t need them all to hit either. I think the floor is very pessimistic.

This team has a very good blend that could make the ceiling much more likely then the floor.  

Michfan777

October 1st, 2021 at 9:08 AM ^

I also see the team falling into that 4-7 seed range. But that being largely due to struggles/growing pains earlier in the season. By tournament time I think they’ll be pretty damn good. Sorta like some of those Kentucky teams - such as the one who beat Michigan in March 2014  

I also think Dickinson leaves after this year - which I’d hate to see because I don’t think he gets much higher than late 20s in the draft at best. Although treats probably his ceiling no matter what he does or when he comes out. Either way, can’t fault a guy for securing the bag. 

outsidethebox

October 1st, 2021 at 9:15 AM ^

Jones and Brooks will be the best back court in the country. This in itself will make Michigan's floor higher than last year. (The hedging on Jones in this write-up is silly...Smith was very good for us but there are, otherwise, no comparisons to be made here. He is a brilliant player both physically and his basketball IQ. This young man has All-American potential.) This duo will mitigate most every other ill this roster holds. National Championship rosters continue to be dependent upon and driven by their guard play. 

Otherwise, Juwan Howard and his staff are elite teachers and schemers of the great game of basketball-as good as Jay Wright and his staff. This group will bring the young talent of this roster along and by the end of the year they will be a force to be reckoned with. The one-and-done post season format can be devastating but my expectations for this group are through the roof.

FlexUM

October 1st, 2021 at 9:28 AM ^

See that is what I am thinking but I wondered if I'm hyping up how good michigans guard play could be and maybe I'm expecting too much. I agree though, my gut feel is this guard play will be absolutely elite and that is going to make up for other issues as the team learns and grows...as you noted I think this radically raises their ceiling as well.