@ Questions about Your NCAA Brackets
Mates,
The NCAA is only a couple of days away (looking at you, sparty - have a nice play-in game....) and it's time to fill out brackets. I run one for my family and i am curious about how to score the various rounds. I'm also curious about how others are filling out their brackets. Accordingly, I have two questions.
1. How many points do you score the various rounds? Is it normal to do 1 pt/game in the first round, 2 for second, 4-8-16 etc? If not, what do you think is the best way to weight or score the rounds?
2. Who do you have as your elite 8? And for that matter, whose in your final 4, 2 and Nat'l champion?
And a link to a bracket here: https://sports.cbsimg.net/images/collegebasketball/ncaa-tournament/brackets/printable/cbs-sports-2021.pdf
Go Blue, enjoy the NCAA's, even if our Liver has been cut out.
XM
Morning XM,
Yep, that's the usual scoring for our fam, though there are likely more fun scoring models out there. Like *1.5 for each upset (beyond 7-10, that's not much of an upset) picked.
Zags Baylor Illini and FSU. Having the hardest time with the East. UM could still make it if Chaundee can get his shot to fall. UConn is dangerous but that's a lot of games to win. Bama's good. Who knows...
What do you consider an upset? Lower seeded team beating higher seeded, or pt spread?
Seeds for simplicity
and good morning back to you ezeh-e.
i will say that i'm on the lazier side of score-keeping and even the model i use is right on the edge of effort that i'll put into it. otherwise it'd be simply 1 pt per win, no matter what round it happens to be in.
That's how I always scored them, but maybe it's antiquated at this point...I have no idea.
My Final Four are Gonzaga, UM, Illinois, and Arkansas. With UM beating the Illini this time around. Wishful thinking, but I don't want to bet against this team and I'm not invested at high stakes so Go Blue!
My son emphatically chose Iona to win it all. You heard it here first.
I'm not a serious bracket buster, so I have fun riding a mid-major to lofty heights. Drake is my pick this year based on nothing other than sheer fantasy. I have them bowing out in the Elite Eight. This is our family bracket for nothing but bragging rights, so it's easy to go this route without any money on the line.
And to answer XM's question about points, I have no idea what system we adopt. My wife is in charge, so I trust her with the accounting rules!
Addendum: While Drake is my deep sleeper, I have Gonzaga, 'Bama, Baylor, and West Virginia in the Final Four, with the Zags winning it. They have to pull this off some year, right? I've only seen West Virginia play twice this year, but they seem well-equipped to handle the rigorous tourney schedule.
Do you get to change your pick if Drake loses the play-in game against WSU, or do you count those games too? Crazy to think that team lost Liam Robbins to Minnesota too.
Yes. Most bracket services allow you to make changes up until 12:00PM on Friday.
March 17th, 2021 at 11:28 AM ^
No changes allowed on the family bracket. My chips are fully in on Drake making a deep run. It's happening.
Hey, they made it to the final 64...still looking good!
Michigan
Kansas
Houston
Baylor
In my pool, the number of points for each correctly predicted win is R(S+R), where R is the round number and S is the seed number. I chose this formula after looking at historical data because it doesn't reward participants for picking all chalk, or all upsets.
I don't have U-M in the Elite Eight, but I'm fine with finishing in the bottom of my pool if it means U-M winning.
March 17th, 2021 at 11:43 AM ^
We do something similar in the pool I run. We have round scoring multiplied each round (64=1pt, 32=2pts, Sweet 16=4pts, Elite 8=8pts, etc) plus seed differential (e.g 5 bonus points if 11 beats 6; 11-6 = 5). The seed differential counts in each round so if a 3 beats a 1 in the E8, that earns 10 points (8+(3-1)=10). This rewards upsets to some degree but is muted by the higher point totals for games later in the tournament. It is also easy to calculate.
My family does the ESPN group bracket. Everyone gets an invite and password.
ESPN does all the heavy lifting.
well at least answer question 2, DD. who you got?
Michigan of course....although with a little more bravado with Livers in the lineup.
It can make for a humorous turnout with 12 people picking Michigan to win it.
I actually went all #1s this year for the 1st time. UofM over Illinois.
March 17th, 2021 at 10:06 AM ^
Each round is worth the same number of total points.
March 17th, 2021 at 10:10 AM ^
which is the same thing as saying 1-2-4-8, etc. since they will always add up to 32.
March 17th, 2021 at 10:16 AM ^
My favorite scoring system is based on the Fibbonacci sequence (2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21). IMO this version gives you the best mix of rewarding picking early round matchups correctly and picking a winner. The 1,2,3,4,5,6 and 1,2,4,8,16,32 scoring systems weight either early games or the championship game too much in my opinion.
March 17th, 2021 at 10:21 AM ^
and the fibbonacci sequence is really 1, 1.5, 2.5, 4, 6.5 and 10.5.
0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21
Cheers.
First ever double post (habitual lurker).
Cheers.
Yeah I run a pool that’s 1, 2, 4, 8, 12, 16....which appears to me to be a lazy man’s Fibonacci.
I’ve never stopped to do the math so I’m sure there’s something screwy about it, but it seemed to reward later round picks without absolutely requiring the winner to have picked the nat’l champ. I never understood the double-every-time model where 32 games (round 1) are worth the same as one game (the final).
March 17th, 2021 at 10:25 AM ^
I'm in a fun one that has grown quite a bit (500+ entries), run by a terrific guy who's also a very accomplished executive/investor ... so he draws a pretty impressive set of Wall Street types, who this one time each year let their hair down and let the smack talk fly, irrespective of their individual daily roles (client-ibanker-attorney-etc). The scoring rules:
>>There are two ways to earn bonus points (with scoring otherwise as usual starting at 2 points for the first round wins and ramping up to 25 points for final four wins and 50 for picking the winner)
- Upsets are once again rewarded….if you pick a lower seed to advance, you get a bonus, based on the seeding differential….so if you pick an 13th seed to beat a 3 seed…and are right…BOOM! An extra 10 bonus points for you! These bonus points last the entire 1st and 2nd round. Once the Sweet 16 is locked, bonus points falls away.
- If you correctly get the Crazy 8's or Final 4 100% correct, you get an extra 20 points! Yes, perfection late in the tourney is to be rewarded and a great way to catch up.
March 17th, 2021 at 11:31 AM ^
Dafuq is the Crazy 8s?!
March 17th, 2021 at 11:36 AM ^
I like this format. Rewarding the big upsets is a fantastic way to account for that risk. Very cool.
March 17th, 2021 at 11:56 AM ^
So, the 13 vs 3 upset doesn't garner any bonus points since it can't happen until the Elite 8? Sorry...couldn't resist.
March 17th, 2021 at 12:40 PM ^
Yeah, should get more than 10 bonus points since a 13 seed has never played a 3 seed
I'm sure he meant 13 over a 4, fwiw (and for, ya know, 9 pts)
March 17th, 2021 at 10:27 AM ^
We've been using a 1 pt. for each win in the round of 64, 2 for r32, 3 for sweet sixteen, and so forth. I don't like the geometric progression model, as fewer contestants have as the rounds progress. As for picks, I have not finalized my bracket until the covid teams issue is settled, i.e. are UVA, Kansas, etc. still in, but I'm leaning towards a B1G-centric FF. I do have my doubts about Iowa, though.
Michigan, Illinois, Gonzaga, and Iowa
Michigan v. Illinois, then Michigan with their 3rd Natty, of course.
Question for the board: What are your pools doing if, once the pool starts, a team goes into the covid protocol? Is the 'no contest' status eliminating any points being awarded, and what about future games? Or is it a luck of the draw outcome?
March 17th, 2021 at 11:42 AM ^
Michigan v. Illinois, then Michigan with their 3rd Natty, of course.
3rd?
March 17th, 2021 at 10:32 AM ^
I've got Covid going all the way!
March 17th, 2021 at 10:49 AM ^
oh come on vlady. can't you make a call or two, maybe grease the wheels for our beloved wolverines?
March 17th, 2021 at 10:32 AM ^
I set up a bracket on Yahoo for any Mgobloggers that are interested: MGO Group
I used the Yahoo default scoring which increases the points in each round (1-2-4-8-16-32) but they have different options you can use including bonus points for upset picks or seed differential. Even if you are just doing a small bracket for family and friends you might want to put them on Yahoo and let Yahoo do the work.
My final 4 picks (subject to change over the next 2 days):
Michigan
Gonzaga
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State
I have Illinois losing to Oklahoma State in the Elite 8
March 17th, 2021 at 10:38 AM ^
Seems like every year, one double digit seed makes some noise. I'm wondering who people have this year as their candidate
A Syracuse team that gets in off the bubble always seems dangerous for whatever reason. I wouldn't be shocked if they made the Elite 8
Winthrop is my other wild guess
March 17th, 2021 at 11:16 AM ^
FYI..a team seeded 5 or worse has made the final four 10 years in a row. Crazy.
March 17th, 2021 at 12:27 PM ^
Wow. I had to fact check you because that just didn't sound right but it is. Time to go update some brackets...
March 17th, 2021 at 10:45 AM ^
the pool i am in now just starts at 1 point for a round and doubles each round.
My all time favorite though, although I think it has to be done manually, is to do Round x Seed. It tilts it massively to whoever can pick the correct upsets, and less about who picks the winner in the end
March 17th, 2021 at 11:01 AM ^
As a few have noted, bonus points for picking seed upsets is fun. We also do a family pool and the participants are nearly 8 to 80. The youngens don't typically know a ton and pick cool names or "bigger numbers" (we had one pick the VA 1v16 upset). The first couple years, they were never in it for long so we did seed upsets for bonus points. It's made it more interesting for everyone.
March 17th, 2021 at 11:15 AM ^
I don't bother to keep score.
SS: Gonzaga, UVA, KU, OR; Baylor, Villa, Ark, OSU; LSU, Gtown, Tex, Ala; Illinois, OK St, WVU, Houston
EE: Gonzaga, KU, Baylor, Ark, LSU, Ala, Illinois, Houston
FF: Gonzaga, Baylor, Alabama, Illinois
Gonzaga over Illinois in title game
March 17th, 2021 at 11:24 AM ^
i bet my list will look a lot like yours. i note a conspicuous absence of anything resembling 'UofM' or "Mich". it is not out of the question at all that LSU gets by us, especially without livers.
March 17th, 2021 at 12:01 PM ^
My gut sense is that Michigan peaked in late February—at least their play in the past five games says that to me—and I'm not convinced there are guys on the bench who can make up for what Livers brings, in terms of his combo of physical ability and court savvy.
It would help if we had somebody who could score 23, 36, 34, 32, 28, and 31 points in six games, but Glen Rice ain't around anymore.
I fervently hope I'm ridiculously wrong in all of this.
lock step with your thoughts on 'peaked' and wouldn't it be nice to have a 30+ pt scorer in our back pocket. not lock step on your 'gut'. you haven't had guts since moses turned the nile red. could be that i pirated a picture from don's facebook page...
I'm never on FB but we do decorate our house at Halloween along those lines:
love the pics.
i don't FB, don't have an account, only have the vaguest idea of how it works.
Feels like Michigan peaked early last season as well and was limping into the tournament before everything was shut down. Yeah I know Livers is hurt but I hope this doesn’t become a trend under Howard. I think the pieces are there for Michigan to make a run but everything has to come together just right. I think they lose to LSU as well but I really really hope I am wrong.
March 17th, 2021 at 12:00 PM ^
I like others just use the ESPN site, which is essentially 1-2-4-8-16-32. The thing I don't like is the winner of my small family pool is just whomever gets the champion correct. Maybe in a larger pool it balances out a bit more. I've done the upset scoring pools before those are fun, but I always pick the wrong upsets and am out after the first round.
My Final Four isn't finalized yet, but I currently have Zags, Michigan, Illinois, OSU. With Illinois over Michigan in the final. I would feel a lot more comfortable if Livers were playing.
My biggest question mark in the first round is Utah State vs Texas Tech. I have switched my pick 3 times already. The kicker is no matter who I am picking I am picking them to upset Arkansas in the next round.
March 17th, 2021 at 12:26 PM ^
FF
Michigan Iowa Illinois and Baylor
Illinois over Iowa
March 17th, 2021 at 12:46 PM ^
Hmmm. Interesting. I took some big "risks" with my bracket this year (nothing to lose), and have both Iowa and Baylor exiting after a lone win, and Illinois going down to Okla State in the Sweet 16 round.
I've got for my Final Four this way:
Gonzaga v. Texas
Ohio State (yeah, I know) v. Ok. State
And then Gonzaga v. Ok. State, with Gonzaga taking it all (and I know that picking the Zags certainly ISN'T going out on a limb!)
I like this bracket and thinking. I'm not sure Iowa goes down so easily but I like the Texas pick. They're a forgotten team even after winning the Big12 tourney. You keep one of the 1 seeds going far (very far) and this Okie St team I think makes some noise. Now watch, they lose in the 2nd round. But man they are dannnnngerous. I think Ohio St. is quite good (legitimate good...their lack of size has finally become lost notion for me, they make up for in other ways and rebound pretty well anyway with thicker guys). Duane Washington is a guard who can carry a team (but with very capable pieces around him to boot) and they've got a decent draw to get far.