Prediction time: will Michigan BBall do enough to make the tourney?
It sounds like we are very slightly on the right side of the bubble with 6 games remaining. I think we will win one of our two tough home games (Wisc or Purdue) and three of our four road games (Minn, Rutgers, Northwestern, Nebraska), which will put into the Big Dance. Whatever we do in the B1G tourney will be gravy (i.e., an opportunity to help our seeding).
What say you, Mgocommunity? Will Michigan be dancing in March?
February 12th, 2017 at 10:22 PM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 10:24 PM ^
Of the 3 tough games left where we're surely be underdogs, Purdue is one I wouldn't be surprised if we win.
Shane McMahon squanders his talent, as we saw last year when we out-rebounded them.
February 12th, 2017 at 10:26 PM ^
Legitimate question: do you have doppelgangers for every B1G basketball coach? Milhouse = Crean, Shane O'Mac = Painter, and who else?
February 12th, 2017 at 10:43 PM ^
John Groce looks like Vice Principal Hackett (only people my age will get this reference)
February 12th, 2017 at 11:15 PM ^
Izzo is Miles from the movie Elf
February 13th, 2017 at 9:38 AM ^
February 13th, 2017 at 8:50 PM ^
From Phil of the Future I believe
February 12th, 2017 at 11:12 PM ^
February 13th, 2017 at 11:58 AM ^
Also I would kill for Will Ferrell to play Fran in some kind of skit or re-enactment or something...
February 12th, 2017 at 11:42 PM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 10:24 PM ^
Why? Purdue and Northwestern are both better than Wisky
February 13th, 2017 at 9:29 AM ^
Three wins (plus one in the BTT) could do it. Four makes us pretty much a lock.
I do think we will do it. We're seeing guys step it up. Walton obviously is raising his game. Wagner's avoiding the silly fouls. MAAR is playing really tough defense. Simpson is finding the game slowing down. I like where we're headed.
February 13th, 2017 at 11:19 AM ^
This is where all of our stupidly close losses (Virginia Tech, Iowa, Wisconsin, plus a clunker vs. a shitty OSU team) come in as killers. Just one of those wins and we are looking pretty comfortable right now as 3 wins alone would likely put us in.
I think if we finish 9-9 in the Big Ten we will probably need two wins in the Big Ten tournament. A win over a bottom 3 team in the conference won't do it.
February 13th, 2017 at 11:44 AM ^
win 4 of next 6 and youre in no matter what happens in B1G tourney...win 2-3 and I think we need to do a little work in the tourney.
February 12th, 2017 at 10:26 PM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 10:49 PM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 11:16 PM ^
February 13th, 2017 at 12:27 AM ^
Johnson scored 5 points and Blackmon had 6. I think Irvin guarded one of those two. He held Eron Harris to 4 points in the first meeting with State. He's doing a good job on defense ever since they let him guard guards instead of power forwards. He's got the length to disrupt a guard's game.
I was a little surprised (well, not really) to see him jack up his first shot from 20+ feet. I thought everybody knew that when you are slumping the thing you want to do is get going from the inside first. I don't mind Zak driving the basket, but his dribble-pull-up game just is completely lost, to the point where he's airballing more shots than he is making. I hope he gets it figured out soon.
February 13th, 2017 at 9:37 AM ^
February 14th, 2017 at 9:49 AM ^
both on his defense, and on the pull-up 20-footer...well, mostly. irvin can be a good (if streaky) shooter, and i don't mind him firing one up as a heat-check. if he's feeling it, great, keep it coming.
he'll come around.
February 13th, 2017 at 1:16 AM ^
February 13th, 2017 at 2:36 AM ^
February 13th, 2017 at 10:04 AM ^
To say he needs to be "Duncan Robinson with better defense" is a poor comparison in my opinion. I honestly think Irvin had the absolute worst shooting performance I have seen from a Michigan player in quite some time. Not only was he 1-for-8, but it wasn't even like he was close on any of his misses. I think the time has passed for anyone to expect Irvin to be the shooter we all want him to be. And it's not like it's been an anomoly, he has shot 12.9% from the field and 13.3% from three in his last 4 games. He absolutely cannot be a part of the offense in any substantial amount going forward.
My completely worthless solution for this problem, which goes along with your suggestion: Let him continue to be like MAAR on the defensive end which he has done really well recently, but switch their usage numbers. At least when MAAR dribbles the air out of the ball, it usually ends with a drive to the basket for a layup .
February 13th, 2017 at 11:12 AM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 11:15 PM ^
I don't think Beilein has to do that. He only need to make sure Irvin knows that if he's not in hot hand, you will send in other players who may contribute more positively in game. If Irvin is hot, we can keep him on the floor. I think it's fair enough at this point. This should be Walton's team, as usual as Beilein's system, it's always the PG's team. Irvin's hero ball doesn't work as planned, we should move on.
February 13th, 2017 at 12:49 AM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 11:05 PM ^
The good news is. like today, they have a couple road games left against other teams fighting for an ncaa berth, Minnesota and NU. UM has the opportunity to kill two birds with one stone in those games - hurt the opponents chances of making the tourney while helping the Wolverines chance of making it. With Purdue and Wisky they have a couple chances to get those 'statement' wins.
The bad news: with no Big Ten teams in the initial release of the Top 16 teams, the NCAA tourney committee doesn't think think too highly of the Big Ten right now.
February 14th, 2017 at 8:12 AM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 10:34 PM ^
I. Have. Absolutely. No. Idea.
Don't think there's a Michigan team I can remember where I've had less of a feel game to game as to how we would perform.
So I'll call it a coin flip.
February 13th, 2017 at 12:01 PM ^
For real - the way this season has been going they'll probably beat Wisconsin and Purdue but lose to Rutgers.
But if this team has finally figured itself out and starts feelin' itself a little they could be dangerous...
February 12th, 2017 at 10:37 PM ^
I'm firmly back on the bandwagon. Ima drove this mofu if I have to.
February 12th, 2017 at 10:37 PM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 11:02 PM ^
The committee looks more at wins vs rpi Top 25 and Top 50 wins rather than wins against teams ranked in the AP poll.
February 13th, 2017 at 11:26 AM ^
Well Northwestern, Minnesota, Purdue and Wisconsin are all top 50 RPI.
Likely need to go 2-2 against those 4 to be in.
February 12th, 2017 at 10:38 PM ^
3-3 the rest of the way. We'll need to do something in the B1G tournament.
Coin flip at this point.
February 12th, 2017 at 10:44 PM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 10:49 PM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 11:04 PM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 10:52 PM ^
And while I'm actually really proud of a team that could've packed it in after the home loss to OSU and instead fought back, I just think the schedule is too difficult down the stretch. Michigan has a RPI in the low 70s right now. That's dangerous when it comes to getting a bid.
They basically have to split Wisky/Purdue, split @Minny/@NW, and not slip up against Rutgers or Nebraska (both on the road) AND win a game against a fellow bubble team in the first round of the BTT.
It's certainly doable. I'll be thrilled if they do get in especially after I (and many others) left them for dead.
My prediction is this:
19-14, NIT bid with a run in that tournament...
What will happen:
February 12th, 2017 at 11:06 PM ^
that's another one of my big worries. Teams almost never get at large bids with rpi's in the 70s (and even in the 60s).
February 12th, 2017 at 11:21 PM ^
Michigan's RPI after today is 61. A 9-9 finish in the conference will likely leave us with an RPI somewhere in the 50s.
February 13th, 2017 at 12:46 AM ^
even 40s. Regardless, it'll be enough if they finish at 9-9 in conference and win the first game of BTT (in which they'll be favored).
Odds are about as close to 50/50 as it gets if you assume the team that comes out Thursday is as likely to the team that lost to OSU as it is to be the team that beat MSU just 3 days apart in the same building.
February 13th, 2017 at 7:25 AM ^
Wow.
I forgot how much the RPI values road wins. Then, yes, splitting the road games and taking down Purdue or Wisky at home might be enough.
February 13th, 2017 at 12:46 PM ^
people are getting way too excited over those wins. Come selection time, they will not impress anyone. If we beat Wisconsin and Purdue, that would matter.
February 12th, 2017 at 10:48 PM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 10:56 PM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 11:57 PM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 10:59 PM ^