Potential NBA stat scandal uncovered by Redditor
A very observant Reddit user may have uncovered a stat padding scandal involving Jaren Jackson Jr. His home stats are inflated by almost double in the blocks and steals categories. This has led to him rising from +10,000 to win DPOY to being the odds on favorite. Other implications would seem to be prop bets such as over/under blocks and steals per game. As I understand this will be turning into a pretty massive story all from one guy noticing an odd trend and analyzing the data. Kudos to you sir!
January 28th, 2023 at 6:24 PM ^
So a player performs better at home?
January 28th, 2023 at 6:28 PM ^
Look at the giant discrepancy in home and road stats. The previous season his road and home stats in the blocks and steals categories were very close to the same. Now this year his home stats in these categories, that are easy to manipulate btw, are nearly double that the road stats. Not insignificant whatsoever.
January 28th, 2023 at 7:02 PM ^
To be fair, this is some random dude on Reddit, and he gives no concrete evidence other than the statical anomaly of home stats being better than road stats. I gotta believe the NBA, and the team that pays his check would make sure they aren't fudging the numbers.
January 28th, 2023 at 7:45 PM ^
You forgot to mention the video evidence.
January 28th, 2023 at 9:26 PM ^
Someone didn't watch the videos. Seems apparent to even a dum-dum that there's smoke here.
The problem is nothing will come of it according to the NBA which admits: "Historically speaking, home arena stat padding is a relatively common and accepted practice".
January 28th, 2023 at 9:49 PM ^
This is a TIL moment for me. Kinda blows my mind. Basically saying we will manipulate stats and it doesn’t matter and we don’t care so go away.
January 28th, 2023 at 6:29 PM ^
Yes, you definitely understand the situation detailed in this post and linked Reddit thread.
January 28th, 2023 at 7:35 PM ^
You seemed to fall for a conspiracy. Neg away rubes
January 28th, 2023 at 9:24 PM ^
It doesn't require a "conspiracy" for this to be true. Just one overzealous scorekeeper.
This kind of thing does happen. Seth has documented how the MSU scorekeeper is very generous with assists.
January 28th, 2023 at 6:55 PM ^
OP and some commenters showed some examples. It's pretty blatant that a lot of JJJ's "stocks" are completely incorrect
January 28th, 2023 at 7:41 PM ^
Better stats? Yes
performs better? No
January 28th, 2023 at 7:45 PM ^
Or, maybe read next time before spouting off??
January 28th, 2023 at 10:26 PM ^
Me? Maybe you should actually read through the thread and find the proof below, maybe?
January 28th, 2023 at 6:34 PM ^
I remember something similar with Chris Paul's assist numbers in home vs away one year.
Players play better at home and scorekeepers are generous to the home team, most that will happen here is the NBA will quietly tell the Grizzlies statkeeper to tighten up.
January 28th, 2023 at 6:46 PM ^
Yeah that’s possible. Interestingly, the Vancouver grizzlies had something like this happen and we’re not exactly made an example of by the NBA.There’s a story out there from the scorekeeper then who was a lakers fan, and he’s essentially responsible for Nick Van Exels 23 assist game against them. He claims the league and the teams are all for it. Draws more interest and ‘improves’ the league overall. It’s hard not to believe it. Just think of how nowadays players, especially star players can carry the ball blatantly yet are never called for it for example.
January 28th, 2023 at 8:29 PM ^
Yeah its Deadspin but i saved it. Went to post the same thing you did
Opens the eyes if you play fantasty at the time.. Or gamble now on the props
https://deadspin.com/the-confessions-of-an-nba-scorekeeper-5345287
January 28th, 2023 at 6:34 PM ^
In order to find scandal in the NBA you have to assume that the NBA is sport and not a glorified form of the Harlem Globetrotters.
January 28th, 2023 at 6:39 PM ^
wouldn't you not want this is you were affiliated with the grizz? wouldn't you want his contract negotiations to start at a lower number?
January 28th, 2023 at 6:59 PM ^
I think you’d be fine with it. Either you sign him for what he’s really worth or another team overpays for him based on inflated stats/overpays in a trade for him.
January 28th, 2023 at 7:15 PM ^
Yes. The NBA would be fine with it too. The real problem is with the gambling advantages had by being able to directly manufacture stats. Blocks, steals, assists are all easily manipulated. Especially when no one is apparently verifying the stats. Old story is John Stockton always got favorable credit for assists at home for instance. You basically hammer the over on blocks/steals every home game and the under on the road. He also theoretically made him the DPOY favorite if true. Which you can also bet on of course.
January 28th, 2023 at 6:54 PM ^
I thought this might be questionable, but wow, a lot of the examples the poster mentioned are blatant
January 28th, 2023 at 7:18 PM ^
Yeah this guy did his homework. Not just some shitpost on Reddit.
January 28th, 2023 at 7:00 PM ^
Do the Grizzlies borrow the Breslin scorekeeper on his nights off?
January 28th, 2023 at 8:20 PM ^
Spartan Bob would happily cheat again.
January 28th, 2023 at 7:13 PM ^
So do the home statkeeper and JJJ have some sort of relationship or understanding?
January 28th, 2023 at 7:19 PM ^
I don’t think it has to mean that. Not impossible though I guess. I don’t think anyone right now is really alleging that.
January 28th, 2023 at 7:24 PM ^
This has been thoroughly debunked lol
Also, the person who posted that thread in the NBA subreddit clearly didn’t understand how the NBA credits steals as some of their “examples” demonstrate a flawed understanding of how that occurs. Additionally, NBA “stat keepers” have access to multiple other camera angles that are not on broadcasts so it is highly likely the other angles of some of the more questionable blocks or steals are much more clear from said angles.
edit: Kevin O’Connor’s thread is probably the best on this subject.
January 28th, 2023 at 7:36 PM ^
Get ready to get negged
January 28th, 2023 at 7:37 PM ^
But then why is there such a home/road disparity? Are the other 29 scorers idiots and the Memphis guy is the man?
January 28th, 2023 at 7:43 PM ^
This is exactly it. You can’t explain that away. It’s a huge statistical anomaly. As proven by looking at his previous seasons.
January 28th, 2023 at 7:59 PM ^
So you can’t accept the possibility that a player is dramatically better when playing at home than on the road? Really? MGobloggers can’t accept that a player performs significantly better at home than on the road? After a full season of watching Caleb Houstan be a deadeye sniper at Crisler but fire up blanks away from home you can’t accept that proposition at all?
Just go watch all the stocks for yourself and come to your own conclusion. Here’s a thread from the NBA subreddit where a poster did just that and put together a helpful spreadsheet! https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/10nlcla/oc_all_of_jaren_jackson_jrs_blocks_and_steals/
January 28th, 2023 at 8:07 PM ^
Easy there big guy. I don’t give a shit about the Memphis Grizzlies, the DPOY award, or really anything else about the NBA at the moment. I only pay attention to pro sports leagues when the Detroit teams are good, so for the NBA, it’s been a minute.
But if the Reddit poster is correct, that JJJ performed about the same home and away before this season, and then suddenly is racking up much better numbers at home this year … that sounds kind of dodgy.
January 28th, 2023 at 8:41 PM ^
If you can find a discrepancy that large, with a starting player from one year to another I’d like to see it. As I said, last year his splits were only about 10% less on average on the road. This year he’s almost double the number of *stocks at home versus on the road. That isn’t just an anomaly.
*stocks being blocks+steals combined
January 28th, 2023 at 9:58 PM ^
No, I don’t believe that. That large of a discrepancy would essentially mean that either A.) JJJ just decides to be extremely good at home and not on the road or B.) the stats are artificially inflated. Considering his typical road/home performance, which can be seen by anybody who wants to spend the time, is not in the ballpark of this season I would consider it pretty statistically relevant.
January 29th, 2023 at 10:37 AM ^
You clearly never watched Caleb Houstan shoot last year.
January 28th, 2023 at 7:41 PM ^
It also appears Vegas hadn’t noticed as their over/under on prop bets for his blocks/steals was not significantly different on the road. Also after this started spreading odds have changed for the DPOY award candidates. Some places pulled different prop bets etc. temporarily or again changed odds. It’s interesting and apparently not considered uncommon. Maybe this will bring attention to it. If it’s true these scorekeepers are directly influencing stats that’s kind of a big deal. It seems to be accepted by many that it does in fact exist and has for awhile outside of this event.
January 28th, 2023 at 8:10 PM ^
There’s actually a lot of interesting information in the comments. There’s a lot so sorting it by best to start helps. I personally haven’t really heard much about inflating stats. Apparently this has been a thing in the NBA for awhile now. I don’t understand how something like this has gone under the radar for so long. Maybe this is the time where someone just went too far with it and it’s going to be exposed to a larger amount of the sports world. I mean the other explanation for why his home stats are SO much better than his road stats this year particularly is that he just decided to be better at home. That’s how big the difference in his stats is. Also he’s coming off a broken foot this season as well if that means anything.
January 28th, 2023 at 9:43 PM ^
My favorite:
The scorekeeper is now sweating bullets
Sweating wizards is the correct term
January 28th, 2023 at 9:59 PM ^
I actually lol’d at that one when I saw it. Good call there. You’ve obviously spent a little time reading through the post.
January 28th, 2023 at 8:17 PM ^
It’s already been disproven multiple times by multiple people in that Reddit thread and other more “official” NBA reporters.
Fun conspiracy though.
January 28th, 2023 at 10:04 PM ^
It’s not really a conspiracy. This kind of stuff has gone in in the NBA apparently for a long time. I honestly had never really heard about it myself but it makes perfect sense. I just always thought there were NBA folks verifying stats and correcting mistakes. It appears that isn’t the case and stats can be manipulated fairly easily. Probably because they don’t want to or care to address it. Wild considering the betting implications.
January 29th, 2023 at 2:59 PM ^
What’s funny is that Jaren does legit play worse on the road and gets a lot more phantom fouls as well - which limit his minutes and while also making him less aggressive on D. I’ve seen all but their last game or two and it’s pretty wild how different he is in home verse away environments. I will also say, he has probably had a few stocks get credited to him that he shouldn’t have, as well as a few that should have but weren’t at the end, it’s a wash for the best defender in basketball.
Really, the whole team is like that though in regards to home/away performance - with Ja being a bit of an exception. The Grizzlies are fairly terrible on the road, but are damn near unbeatable at home. That screams a talented but young immature team, and meh coaching.
The conspiracy though is laughable as well. I re-read the reddit post, the guys "examples," which are probably the best he could find, are weak at best. At the end of the day, the Reddit OP used meh information to try to prove what he already believes. He then gives 7 examples and describes the plays incorrectly. When you actually watch the examples you see he's blatantly misleading in description of what happened. He has been picked apart in multiple posts in his own thread and by multiple NBA reporters as well.
But of course 10,000 Reddit people who don't understand it but are impressed by the length of the post and a few details eat it up, then amplify the nonsense.
January 28th, 2023 at 8:35 PM ^
https://deadspin.com/the-confessions-of-an-nba-scorekeeper-5345287
interesting and relevant.
January 28th, 2023 at 8:37 PM ^
Oh and IF I could actually edit the OP I’d like to add I’m not insinuating JJJ himself is involved. It sort of reads that way.
January 28th, 2023 at 10:25 PM ^
It already sounds debunked. But if they are going to do it, please check on Cash Winston's assists at home.
January 28th, 2023 at 11:42 PM ^
All of this just started gaining traction. The OP on Reddit apparently posted this on r/nbastats 9 days ago but that sub is very small. They posted it again at like 3 am to r/nba and it has since blown up. It’s something that’s happening right now. Of course there’s going to be a bunch of pushback online. I’m hoping by Monday it’s getting some real attention because it seems to be an issue worthy of addressing. Plus it’s not even a new issue, just a well avoided one. There are other stories and examples of exactly this happening.
January 28th, 2023 at 10:41 PM ^
87% of all statistics are made up.
January 28th, 2023 at 11:34 PM ^
I’m 96% sure this is correct
January 28th, 2023 at 11:57 PM ^
I can't wait for the Netflix doc in 5 years
January 29th, 2023 at 12:32 AM ^
Another user looked at some numbers and comparisons with other players in the league.