Potential End of Year ScenarioQ: Who Gets In If....
So... it’s beginning to look like running the table could actually be a thing. Daring to peak to the end of the season, what might happen if:
- Alabama & Clemson win out (undefeated, conf champs)
- ND wins out (undefeated, beat us head-to-head)
- UCF wins out (undefeated, conf champs, longest win streak, but weeeeeeeeaaaaaakkkkk schedule - 0 top 25 teams on the schedule )
Where does Michigan stand as a one loss, conference championship team, with one of the toughest schedules in the country and one of the best ranked defenses in the country?
October 21st, 2018 at 7:02 AM ^
If Michigan runs the table, including the B1G championship, they're in the playoffs. It would be a scandal if they were denied, given their one loss was to start the year, and that one loss was to (presumably) one of the other playoff teams.
UCF won't get in.
OSU won't get in, even with a win over Michigan. The loss to Purdue is another one of those losses the committee will take into account.
October 21st, 2018 at 9:46 AM ^
The committee got burned badly the previous time the leap frogged an OSU team over the conference champ - won't happen again.
October 21st, 2018 at 1:06 PM ^
If OSU wins out that will include them beating a top 5 team (Michigan) and Big Ten Championship. They are in almost certainly.
October 21st, 2018 at 10:18 AM ^
If OSU beats Michigan, don't they get to go to the conference championship game to get an additional win? That would help their chances in the playoff, especially if a win over Michigan and the conference championship win were both convincing.
And then Michigan would have 2 losses on the season so they would be out of the picture anyway.
But agree that if Michigan runs the tables, they will be in.
October 21st, 2018 at 1:21 PM ^
OSU could get in if they were to get a rematch with Purdue in the BTCG and win it.
October 21st, 2018 at 7:11 AM ^
I Michigan runs the table, they're in, unless a there is a one loss SEC champion other than Alabama and a one loss Alabama. It sucks, but in that scenario, the committee will put in two SEC teams.
October 21st, 2018 at 8:08 AM ^
No they wouldnt. A one loss conference champion Michigan team gets in over a 1 loss SEC team that doesnt win its conference. For OSU it may be a different story. The Purdue loss isnt a very good loss though they are playing very well.
October 21st, 2018 at 8:30 AM ^
I’m not so sure. Say Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC Champ game, Clemson wins out, and ND runs the table. I think in that scenario, UGA, ND, and a Clemson are definitely in. The committee would be left debating Alabama vs. Michigan and Alabama (to this point) has just looked way more dominant. I think they’d give it to Alabama.
October 21st, 2018 at 9:00 AM ^
Team A: 11-1, no conference championship. Three wins over top 25 team. Coming off a loss.
Team B: 11-1, conference champions. Five wins over top 25 teams. Won 11 straight.
Who are you putting in?
October 21st, 2018 at 2:52 PM ^
Bingo.
October 21st, 2018 at 4:29 PM ^
Also forgot: Team B’s single loss was by one score at night away game to an undefeated CFP team.
October 21st, 2018 at 9:20 AM ^
Unfortunately agree. While Saban is there Alabama gets special consideration. I hate it, but I would put Bama inover us in that scenario.
In a way, the Purdue loss does hurt. Had we won in Columbus vs #2 and then beat Wisconsin who may be highly ranked again we may have had a case over ND. But 4/5 teams in our gauntlet won't be as highly ranked as we expected to start the year.
October 21st, 2018 at 9:58 AM ^
To avoid the other p4 conferences very very reasonable complaints, you would see them taking into consideration the conference championship as quasi- first step in the CFP.
You guys are putting too much stock in what happened last year and forgetting that it only happened because other conferences had imploded. OSU wasn't getting in due to getting blown out by not great teams, etc. Had OSU not been blown out by Iowa, the lone loss to Oklahoma would have been enough to get them in over two SEC teams. You are saying they put 1 loss non-conference champions in ahead of the B1G champion (2 loss champion with 1 very bad loss), and forgetting that it wasn't a 1 non-bad loss B1G champion.
The Georgia- Alabama scenario won't work again unless other conferences implode. It might if Alabama played Georgia in the regular season and won, but it would be sending a very clear signal to teams to not schedule 1) good out of conference opponents and 2) not schedule your best in conference opponents in the regular season. Neither of those are things the NCAA wants to encourage.
October 21st, 2018 at 1:25 PM ^
Yes. Recency bias. Alabama got in last year by having a single regular season loss, not a loss in the SEC CG. When you lose in the conference CG, you are out.
October 21st, 2018 at 5:20 PM ^
True, unless maybe you are Alabama. They deserve special consideration.
October 21st, 2018 at 9:30 AM ^
The top 4 will change. Upsets aplenty. Watch out for the Noles after some early season trouble....they will knock off either Clemson or ND. Still lots of mayhem out there....if we run the table we are in. Ratings for a Saban /Harbaugh matchup are too enticing to pass up.
October 21st, 2018 at 9:52 AM ^
I would very much like for them to knock off Clemson. If ND stays undefeated, it helps our SOS a lot to have our only loss being in a season opener against a playoff team.
October 21st, 2018 at 11:19 AM ^
Man....you are high as hell if you think FSU is beating anyone with a pulse this year. Hell, they might not win another game. They finish with Clemson, NC State, ND, Boston College, and Florida. If they win more than one of those, I’ll be surprised.
October 21st, 2018 at 1:22 PM ^
This is true. OSU would have gotten in last year over the second SEC team if they had not lost so badly to Iowa.
October 21st, 2018 at 8:49 AM ^
No way. Two one loss SEC teams will only ever happen when there aren't at least three other CFP worthy teams. Michigan, ND, and Clemson would all get in over a championship-less Alabama.
October 21st, 2018 at 9:25 AM ^
While I sympathize with the sentiment I disagree if the 2 SEC teams are UGA beating an undefeated Alabama in the SEC title game. Not because it is right or just but because a committee will conclude a Nick Saban Bama team is the right call. Sort of like they did last year.
October 21st, 2018 at 11:55 AM ^
Last year happened because OSU had a "good" early season loss and a late blow out against Iowa. Had they not lost the second game, OSU would have gone in over the additional SEC team.
The NCAA is nothing if not a business. An 11-1 Harbaugh coached Michigan team trying to finish the revenge tour against an undefeated ND is great for business. Pissing off a shitload of non-SEC fans is bad for business.
I think there's zero probability that this team goes 11-1 and doesn't make the CFP. There simply isn't a scenario that I believe would keep us out.
October 21st, 2018 at 10:00 AM ^
The B1G championship winner that was left out of the CFP last year had two losses. If OSU only had one loss last year, there's no way the CFP committee puts in a one-loss SEC team that didn't win the SEC championship. If UM wins out and OU or Texas wins out, assuming the SEC and ACC have a champion with one or fewer losses and ND wins out, the question would be the B1G champ or the Big 12 champ, not whether two SEC teams will get in.
October 21st, 2018 at 1:17 PM ^
If Alabama loses to LSU, and LSU wins all the rest of their games and the SEC champ, I don't see how Alabama can get in unless there is chaos. I know they are have been killing everyone but their schedule has been crazy soft. At the end of the day, LSU may be the only ranked team on their schedule at the end of the season. Right now Texas A&M is likely the only ranked team and they have to play at Miss State and then play LSU, so its possible/likely the end up with four losses
Bama with no-conference championship and zero top 25 wins should be behind at least
- undefeated ND
- undefeated Clemson
- a one-loss LSU with SEC title
- a one-loss Michigan with a Big Ten title.
Maybe they can stay ahead of a one-loss OSU team that wins the Big Ten and most likely Oklahoma/Texas
October 21st, 2018 at 7:12 AM ^
We'd be in, definitely.
But first things first. We have to beat Purdue in the conference championship.
October 21st, 2018 at 7:13 AM ^
Well, first first things first ... beat Penn State! :-)
October 21st, 2018 at 7:45 AM ^
You're right. We shouldn't be discussing any of this until we show we can beat our main divisional rival.
October 21st, 2018 at 8:04 AM ^
Rutger?
October 21st, 2018 at 8:28 AM ^
Exactly. As you note, they're not multiple this year. I give us good odds.
October 21st, 2018 at 8:38 AM ^
dear leader,
given that you are a near-deity, could you please just kind of 'order' us into the CFP?
thanks.
xm
October 21st, 2018 at 7:22 AM ^
UCF isn't getting in.
Texas lost to Maryland and we killed them, I think that puts us ahead of the Big 12 champ if it's Texas or OU. I don't think anyone else in the league will have the resume.
I wonder if it would be better to play Bama first. I think OSU maybe caught them off guard back in 2014 and ended up throttling them behind a great run game engineered by Ed Warriner.
Ideally, I'd like Michigan to get a rematch with ND in the 2 vs 3 game.
October 21st, 2018 at 7:25 AM ^
Nobody is beating bama this year, only possibly Clemson with their defense, I’ll be happy to see Michigan beat osu and win big ten that’s enough for me. To win Natty gotta start paying elite recruits like bama and osu do
October 21st, 2018 at 7:29 AM ^
You're right, they're on another level and are the obvious choice to win it all. I'm just trying to think of something that would be to our advantage. Anyways, I'll continue to drink the Maize and Blue Kool-Aid. Go Blue
October 21st, 2018 at 9:19 AM ^
Apparently you haven't noticed Michigan BUZZSAWING good teams the past three weeks.... We can beat Alabama...top D in nation gives u a chance. It'll take a defer to change your perception, but this isn't Hoke here.
October 21st, 2018 at 9:31 AM ^
I'm not saying Michigan couldn't beat Alabama (but it would take a perfectly played game to do it), "BUZZSAWING" the teams we beat the last two weeks does not mean much for this match up. QB play by MSU & WI was abysmal, something we won't see against Alabama (or OSU). For now I would like to concentrate on beating Penn St.
October 21st, 2018 at 7:23 AM ^
This scenario is easy #4
October 21st, 2018 at 7:29 AM ^
UCF isn’t the team to worry about. Does a 1 loss Michigan get in over a 1 loss Oklahoma who beat the only team to beat them?
More problematic let’s say 1 loss Georgia beats bama in the sec championship, does Michigan get in over a loss Georgia? What about a 1 loss bama who also has just a loss to a playoff team?
A 1 loss Michigan is by no means a lock, though an upset of Clemson might do the trick. Otherwise you become bama fans in that championship game
October 21st, 2018 at 7:48 AM ^
So by “beat the only team to beat them” you mean they’d beat Texas in the B12 championship game?
That’s conceivable, and that’s where as much as we loved watching OSU get its ass handed to them last night, it would be better to beat them when they’re still undefeated. I think if OU were to get revenge on Texas convincingly, our win over OSU might not look as good now.
There’s also the possibility that USC beats ND or something like that, lessening the value of that “loss.”
And in the “We’re getting WAY ahead of ourselves” department, we still need to beat PSU and take care of a decent-looking Indiana.
If we go into OSU at 10-1, our worst-case scenario consolation prize is an NY6 bowl and depending on who wins/loses the B1GCC, probably the Rose Bowl. OSU wins the B1GCC, the West champ won’t get the Rose Bowl over us. If OSU loses, either team might go to the Rose over us but we’d still go to Glendale or Atlanta.
October 21st, 2018 at 8:11 AM ^
If ND loses to USC it opens a spot in the playoffs because ND is gone.
October 21st, 2018 at 8:55 AM ^
Poorly phrased, but I think he means that Michigan beat the team (Maryland) which beat the only team (Texas) to beat Oklahoma.
October 21st, 2018 at 9:19 AM ^
They would never move us down. We're most likely gonna be #5 after today, and if we kept winning we would jump into the top 4. The SEC is not getting two teams in this year, not with LSU and Bama still having to play and Georgia already having a a bad loss. And they're not moving Oklahoma or Texas in front of us.
October 21st, 2018 at 8:31 AM ^
A one-loss B1G champion is in, no matter what, particularly us.
In our scenario, our only loss is seven by 7 points to an undedeated playoff team on the road, at night, in the first game of the season. Then proceeding to run off 11 in a row, including five ranked teams, throughout the regular season. No other one-loss team in the country will be able to build a resume like that.
If Notre Dame were to drop one, it just moves us up one spot in the playoff rankings.
The committee has already spoken on what they think of the group of five schedules, when an undedeated UCF finished the regular season at somewhere around #13 last year. They weren't even close to making the playoff then, and wont be any closer this year.
October 21st, 2018 at 1:30 PM ^
Yes. The CFP committee has a fetish for a "good loss" (too much so IMO, but it works for us this season).
If we win out, our only loss will be a "good loss". If ND loses a game, then we would just take their place in the CFP.
October 21st, 2018 at 7:36 AM ^
UCF doesn't need to get in. They can just claim another title.
The only way a Group of 5 team should ever get in is if they play a very tough non-conference slate. If they don't schedule one, when they play an FCS team, they're not even trying for the playoffs. UCF reminds me of a loudmouth yelling hold me back while pretending to want to fight.
October 21st, 2018 at 8:40 AM ^
In fairness to UCF, they did schedule Pitt and UNC this year, and have Stanford on their schedule next year, so it's not like they're not trying. They just cant get enough quality wins on their schedule playing in the AAC. Scheduling years in advance and trying to guess who's going to be good makes it all but impossible for them.
October 21st, 2018 at 9:29 AM ^
And what quality team is going to want to schedule the toughest Lower 5 school? That is a lose-lose situation (see: App State)
October 21st, 2018 at 9:43 AM ^
Bingo. I'll guarantee you that Stanford didn't see UCF coming when they agreed to go to Orlando four years ago.
October 21st, 2018 at 9:39 AM ^
Sorry, that's not trying. That's an attempt to look respectable, not to put yourselves in a playoff conversation. It's their usual schedule, one sub-par Power 5 school that's willing to do a home and home, one that might be good or very good and one FCS.
Group of 5 schools have to schedule much tougher teams if they want to be a contender. They have be willing to play an extra road game. It's the one opportunity they have to beef up their SOS. If they don't do it, they don't deserve a shot. We'd be complaining if that was Michigan's non-conf schedule and worried about our SOS because of it.
October 21st, 2018 at 7:43 AM ^
A 1 loss conference champ Michigan makes the playoffs, full stop. Last year a 2 loss conference champ OSU team was being argued to get in over a 1 loss non SEC champ Bama. Both those teams were in over UCF easy. 2 years ago the only reason a 2 loss B1G champ didn't make it was because a 1 loss B1G team from the same division did.
If we win out we're in. The only way it gets a little nervous is in the OP's scenario with 3 undefeateds and a 1 loss Big-12 champ. Even in that case, we'll have the best loss and wins over Wisky (x2?), PSU, MSU and OSU. The Big-12 champ will either be Texas (loss to Maryland who we beat), WVU (loss to Iowa State), or Oklahoma (only potential good wins left are Texas Tech and WVU). That still puts us in pretty easily IMO.
October 21st, 2018 at 10:50 AM ^
By the end of the year that msu win might be over a 7-5 team. The committee has been pretty clear they care about end of year rankings not at time of the game rankings. Not sure it’s going to lift our resume even though it lifted our spirits.