Pickin' and Grinnin - The Conference Playoff Games
Mates,
Just took a look at the other playoff games set for this weekend. Didn't know the PAC 12 is set for Friday, the rest are on Saturday. I've listed the favorites, the spread, and the underdog in that order for each game. Some interesting matchups, but hard to concentrate on them too much with our big game looming on Saturday night. Anyway, here are the games:
Utah 2.5 Oregon Friday night @ 8
Ok. St. 5.5 Baylor Noon
SDSU 5.5 Utah St. 3 pm (Go, Fighting Hokes!)
Georgia 6.5 Bama 4 pm
Cincy 10.5 Houston 4 pm
Pitt 3 Wake Forest 8 pm
Michigan 10.5 Iowa 8 pm
Pick with the points in mind. Who you got?
XM (Wasting time trying to work. Still smiling about Saturday)
December 1st, 2021 at 2:44 PM ^
C-USA title game is Friday night --- give me WKU at -3 on the road at UTSA. WKU should be able to score a lot of points.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:51 PM ^
All the favorites except Cincy. I think they're going to lose outright and put the g5 stuff to rest.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:12 PM ^
I’d actually prefer Cincy to win and make the playoffs as the 3. That way we can kick the crap out of them and put an exclamation point on why they don’t belong.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:37 PM ^
And own the rest of Ohio.
December 1st, 2021 at 8:18 PM ^
Yes. And has anyone else noticed that OSU has this weird relationship with Cincy where it’s like Cincy is their little brother, but instead of being a little twerp, it’s like they really like them.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:48 PM ^
I don't think the committee will give us that chance. I think if they win and Ok State wins, they'll let Ok State jump Cincy so UGA can kick the crap out of them.
December 1st, 2021 at 4:09 PM ^
I agree with Morto. Think that if Ok State beats baylor that they'll jump cinci. Now if you really want Cinci, what you want to have happen is Cinci win and Ok State lose so Notre Dame gets in. I don't think they could put ND ahead of Cinci. So, assuming we win, you get Georgia-ND and Michigan-Cinci.
December 1st, 2021 at 6:48 PM ^
I think the committee would love a Georgia vs. Michigan title game for best ratings, and best match up.
December 1st, 2021 at 7:35 PM ^
I would prefer to play and beat Cincy as well. I believe Fickell will eventually be OSU’s head coach so it would put a damper on that hire. He would start 0-2 against Michigan. Beat Iowa!
December 1st, 2021 at 3:20 PM ^
Too much money on the line for that conference. I can't see given that they should get all the breaks and definitely should not lose outright unless they really pee down their legs. Probably the reason why the big point spread. Ditto B1G.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:51 PM ^
I really only care about our game. We control our destiny and we deserve it.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:55 PM ^
Narduzzi to ND...... that's my pick
December 1st, 2021 at 2:59 PM ^
how many points does pitt get?
incidentally, we might be slaughtering your cow on saturday. i'll keep you posted.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:03 PM ^
outstanding!
December 1st, 2021 at 3:22 PM ^
I'm hoping your avatar picture doesn't change into an empty grassy field afterward...
December 1st, 2021 at 5:07 PM ^
still be some more livestock when these guys are gone. but please don't tell the avatar guys that if all goes to according to plan, they won't be watching the B10 championship game.....
looking forward to you and mrs. mgohillbilly visiting on saturday though.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:23 PM ^
"incidentally, we might be slaughtering your cow on saturday. i'll keep you posted."
Not something you see posted everyday on the old mgoblog boards.
December 1st, 2021 at 5:59 PM ^
We'll kill the fatted calf tonight so stick around....
December 1st, 2021 at 6:29 PM ^
That would have to wait for a national championship victory. Could happen. It helps that we have sheep so we could actually pull that off.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:57 PM ^
Bama is gonna beat Georgia
December 1st, 2021 at 3:00 PM ^
a vote for chaos. not impossible though, but i guess i'd like georgia to win and really put a hitch in bama's giddyup as the non-stop champion of everything. saban is getting old, time for him to leave, time for bama to go back down to the median.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:03 PM ^
I get that feeling as well. It would be very SEC to be in the tank for Bama and ensure they get two teams into the playoffs instead of just one.
We need to hope for UGA to win, or else we likely end up playing one of the SEC teams in the first round, possibly both rounds.
...but first, BEAT IOWA
December 1st, 2021 at 4:12 PM ^
I've thought about this.
But think about this if you're Georgia ... do you really want to keep Bama alive? You really want to face Saban when you've given him a month to prepare? I don't think there's any way Georgia is thinking about the good of the conference.
The Dawgs smell a national championship, and they know they need to make sure Bama doesn't stick around.
December 1st, 2021 at 4:17 PM ^
Think of the players and coaches. Even if the commissioner told them to lose, they’d try to win. Imagine telling Michigan to lose on purpose in a CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME so two teams can get in to playoffs from your conference?
There is 0% chance Georgia is thinking about anything other than winning a championship.
The whole notion that people think it’s possible is just asinine.
December 1st, 2021 at 4:38 PM ^
Rivals don’t root for rivals, except when latter can help their case. There’s no scenario in which Ga. wants Alabama in the CFP, which would likely set up a rematch. You never want to give a second team, least of all Alabama, a second shot at you. Plus keeping them out of the cfp is a great recruiting chip.
December 1st, 2021 at 7:07 PM ^
Of course Georgia is going to play to win and not throw the game, but watch for penalty yards to be 2:1 in favor of Georgia and at least two or three Bama drives saved by sketchy calls.
December 1st, 2021 at 8:27 PM ^
Everyone is discounting Bama, and it likely because they didn’t look very formidable in their latest game. But I agree, it’s very possible that Bama beats GA. They are a good team and it’s not clear whether GA has really had a real test yet. Alabama has a ton to play for and is going to enter that game hungry. It’s certainly not a foregone conclusion that Georgia wins.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:01 PM ^
Oregon over Utah
Baylor over OkSt
SDSU over Utah St
Georgia over Bama
Cincy over Houston
NIU over Kent St
Pitt over Wake
MICHIGAN B1G CHAMPS
December 1st, 2021 at 3:03 PM ^
Root against Bama and OK St. and for Cinci. That likely puts a head-coachless ND and Cinci in, with us playing Cinci most likely since they've already beaten ND.
Oh, and Win The Game.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:20 PM ^
The problem with that is whether you trust the committee to put a one-loss ND that did not play a conference championship game (and lost its coach) in above a two-loss Alabama (that lost the SEC championship game to UGA)? I do not. (Nor do I think it is likely that the committee would put in a two-loss Baylor currently ranked at #9 that won the Big 12 conference championship over a two-loss Alabama that lost the SEC conference championship.) It would be controversial, but I could see the committee putting Alabama in if they keep it close with UGA and Ok St loses. I just put this scenario in the ESPN Predictor and it gives ND a 61% chance of being selected to a 43% chance for Alabama. (The model puts a coupe percentage points on the possibility of Cincinnati not making it in even if they do win their conference championship game.)
If Ok. State wins its conference championship game (and Alabama loses, and Cincinnati wins), the odds of Alabama being chosen drop to 20%.
December 1st, 2021 at 4:00 PM ^
The committee already has put in a 1 loss team that didn’t win their division, so why would ND get less consideration?
December 1st, 2021 at 6:46 PM ^
The issue is it's Alabama, which is already three spots ahead of ND and did win its division. Alabama is going to play the best team in the country this weekend, while ND rests. The argument would be that they played the best team close, while ND did nothing, and shouldn't be punished for winning their division, playing an extra game, etc. Alabama wasn't punished for squeaking by 6-5 Auburn this week. Again, the ESPN Predictor says ND probably jumps a 2-loss Alabama, but they give it about a 60/40 shot. I am not saying it is right or fair, but I could see it happening.
December 1st, 2021 at 4:22 PM ^
That wouldn’t happen solely because it would put the same two teams against each other again. Bama already lost to Georgia. They wouldn’t slide in at #4 again to play Georgia. If OSU(NTOSU) loses to Baylor, I think ND gets in at #4 and gets obliterated by Georgia.
December 1st, 2021 at 6:37 PM ^
I hear you. Like I said, the ESPN Predictor put it at a ~40% chance, though. To avoid the rematch, might the committee keep Alabama at 3 and Cincinnati at 4, pointing to the body of work, the toughness of the schedule, arguing that playing a close game against UGA is at least as difficult as beating Houston, etc.? It would not shock me. Squeaking by a 6-5 Auburn team in 4 OTs did not hurt Alabama in the rankings.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:39 PM ^
And we know Fickell will be distracted during his contract negotiations with ND. Like having two rudderless teams in.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:12 PM ^
Thinking about putting Cincy and Michigan in a 6 pt teaser down to -4.5
December 1st, 2021 at 3:12 PM ^
Utah won't have that home field advantage that reminds me of Kinnick, and I think Oregon can do it. If Bama's QB is as advertised, he could make the game close, provided he gets the time from his O-line, but I still have to go with the favorite, Georgia.
Michigan beats the spread. We have too many weapons for Iowa to cope with on both sides of the ball.
I can't get much work done this week, either.
December 1st, 2021 at 5:26 PM ^
There will likely be a lot more Utah fans in Vegas than Oregon fans (a straight shot down I-15) --- it won't be a true home game but I think Utah will get a little bit of a bump from that.
I'd take Utah giving the 2.5, though I'm no entirely sold on it.
December 1st, 2021 at 5:34 PM ^
Can't disagree with you too much on Oregon/Utah. Mine's more of a hunch than a rational argument for Oregon.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:12 PM ^
Good guys 27 - Iowa 17. Michigan B10 Champions.
Georgia 38 - Bama 28
Oregon over Utah
Ok. State over Baylor
SDSU over Utah St.
Cincy over Houston
Pitt vs. Wake Forest, no idea, not sure how much it matters. No, not saying other picks matter either, just playin.
December 1st, 2021 at 6:37 PM ^
Exactly how I would pick including WF vs. Pitt
I also am absolutely terrible @ picking against the spread. So this time, I am going against the rules set forth by XM, & am just picking the winners.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:19 PM ^
Utah - covers
OkState - doesn't cover
Bama
Cincy - doesn't cover
Pitt - covers
Michigan - covers
(As a side note, would it be possible to change the banner to remove the "We're going to play in the Rose Bowl this year I guarantee it" quote? Freaks me out every time i read it since we beat ohio.)
December 1st, 2021 at 3:22 PM ^
This should basically be the first round of a 16 team playoff. Add 2 at-large teams and LET'S GO!!!!
December 1st, 2021 at 6:18 PM ^
This is the one year I’m glad it’s a four team playoff.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:39 PM ^
we definitely need georgia to win. if not, and bama wins, you know the committee would move us to 1 and georgia to 4 forcing us to beat both georgia and bama. but hey, beat iowa!! and worry about the rest later.
December 1st, 2021 at 4:08 PM ^
Close….Bama to 1, UGA to 3.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:51 PM ^
Wow, Pitt vs wake for the acc. That is strange
December 1st, 2021 at 3:57 PM ^
I’ve got my $25 paying out over $100 on Iowa to jinx them. Not putting money on any others, but here are my terrible picks that are sure to be wrong:
Utah -2.5 Utah spanned Oregon 2 weeks ago and I don’t think anything other than the venue has changed. I don’t think Oregon keeps it within 7, let alone 2.5z
Baylor +5.5
When was the last time the BigXII didn’t screw itself over when Oklahoma wasn’t involved?
SDSU -5.5
Heres hoping Brady Hoke finds his best life back in Southern California
Alabama +6.5
I do think Georgia wins, just doesn’t cover.
Houston +10.5
Again, I like UC to win, but not cover.
Pitt -3
The one time I watched Wake was when they got rolled by Clemson. I don’t trust them at all.
December 1st, 2021 at 5:16 PM ^
wow, you've been working this. so if you've got $25 to win $100 on iowa, does that mean its a straight up bet, no points, and 4:1 odds?
not sure about the UGA v. bama game. i get the feeling that UGA puts it on them and covers + since bama has been shown to be human this year. then again, like a werewolf, maybe saban rises from the dead and his team upsets UGA. that is a game worth watching.
UC will do everything in its power to win and win big to try and justify it's CFP birth.
December 1st, 2021 at 6:07 PM ^
It’s actually $25 to win $106.25 (+325 on the money line, so no point spread).
I could definitely see Bama winning outright, but I do think UGA is better than them.
Haven’t watched more than 2 quarters of UC football against ND, so no real idea about how that works out.