Over/Under Win Totals for 2019- Michigan at 9.5
I was perusing the college football futures bets and noticed the win totals were out. I think they have been out for a couple weeks. I'm slacking. I do not remember it hitting the board. My apologies if it has...
Michigan over/under is at 9.5 wins. The over is -175 meaning Vegas is leaning towards us getting to 10 regular season wins.
Others of interest:
Ohio St-- 10
Michigan St-- 7.5
Notre Dame-- 9.5
Penn St-- 8.5
Iowa-- 7.5
Rutger- 2.5lol
Sounds about right. I'd take the over, but I losing 3 (or more) games is entirely possible.
9.5 is a solid line. Heart says over. Brain says under. I wouldn't touch it. Personally, I avoid betting on teams in which I have rooting interest, even for emotional hedging.
-175 is a terrible price. At least it indicates a strong lean towards 10 wins.
I'll take the over on that all day long. If Michigan doesn't match its now standard 10-3 next year, that will be a huge disappointment.
Yeah you're right. I am really not sure how we couldn't get to 11+ this year. if not 11 then I think that's a huge disappointment.
Even if you pencil in a loss to ND and OSU, getting 9 regular season wins means we either lose to someone like Army, PSU, or MSU. I guess it's possible, but it's also possible that we beat one of ND or OSU.
Wisconsin’s home record against us would like a word with you.
They beat us there in 2017, but before that, U-M's previous trip there was Rich Rod year 2. Not very relevant.
If you say Wisconsin should be an easy enough win in Madison im on board.
No, it's just that Wisconsin's home record against Michigan doesn't really have anything to do with this current team.
Um... so we should pencil in a loss assuming that both our first and second string QB can't play, John O'Korn comes back, and our offense generally looks like shit all year?
OK.
9-10 is realistic: Harbaugh’s recruits trying to run a spread offense, another offensive coordinator, no proven RB, and defense will take a step back.
Looking at the schedule, I’d say nine wins sounds right.
Who besides ND and OSU do we lose to? I guess Army or Iowa, maybe?
@Wisc
I actually just took another look at our schedule and it's really pretty tough. I still think we bang out 10 wins in the regular season. I think we beat ND and drop one game that we shouldn't, heading in to OSU with a 10-1 record. On the other hand, I could see us going in to that game at 9-2.
In any case, this is a season that Harbaugh needs to do more with less - something we haven't seen too much of since his first year here.
They're going to be breaking in a new QB and Taylor hasn't done all that much against us the last few years. If it wasn't for Hornibrook doing Hornibrook things and us breaking all our QBs they'd be 0-3 vs Michigan under Harbaugh. They'll be better in some ways as it's unlikley they'll have all the injuries again when we face them but this game will be very winnable.
Taylor averaged 5.9 ypc against us last year. Why they went away from him in that game is beyond me. If they have any life at the QB position it will be a battle.
meh...two years ago he went for 6.9 ypc and 132 yards. last year he went 5.9 for 101. He's gonna go for 100 yards and get his but if you contain him they'll have to beat you in the air with either Coan or a freshman, most likely. I'm fine with that.
"If you contain him"
The last two games it doesn't appear that way. I'll say it again if Wisconsin can find a game manager type quarterback they will be tough to beat.
To be fair, Taylor was absolutely gashing our defense last year until Chryst decided to try and air it out for some reason.
I sort of disagree with all your statements. Yes we have a new OC but I think most people are expecting an overnight improvement compared to Pep. Yes we lost Higdon and Evans but aren't there stats out there essentially proving that RB is the best position for a new guy to excel at quickly? And lastly, we lost 2 great players in Winovich and Bush but Brown has done a great job reloading after losing big time players.
My biggest concern is how tough the schedule is. I'd be disappointed with less than 10 wins.
I think people are underestimating how incredibly shitty Pep was at his job. He really fucking sucked. I don't know if Gattis is some offensive genius, but I do know he's at least an average college offensive mind who had other job options besides Michigan. That's going to be a big upgrade from Pep.
Michigan would have gone to the CFP with a real OC last year. Having to grind out wins killed our defensive depth. Had we rolled more teams and sat more offensive and defensive starters we would have done much better against OSU.
True on all accounts. I do believe the skill players on offense will fair well, but my question mark is the o-line. Can they adapt to the new offense? I can’t wait to find out. Next month baby!!!
Good thing their O-Line coach hasn't changed and neither have the blocking schemes.
I would be willing to lean toward 11 wins if we didn't have the young DL. At this point, that's my only hold up.
B1G Championship game and bowl games don't count. They have to go 10-2 to pay.
Michigan - over
OSU - push to over
MSU - under
ND - over but this one is really tough
PSU - under
Iowa - under
Agree here - Iowa could have an interesting season with maybe 5 definite wins on the schedule and then a bunch of shruggies. Iowa State always plays them tough and it's at Iowa State this year. They play @ NU, Nebraska, and late season Wisconsin which could all be tough wins to get. I expect them to lose to us and that just leaves PSU and Purdue for other potential wins, which could both be toss ups or worse. Could be a middling year for them, which they're about due for in the Ferentz cycle.
How he survived that 2005-2014 stretch as their head coach I'll never understand. 6 years with 7 wins or less (one of which was a 4-8 campaign) and two more 8 win seasons, with only one season with 10 or more wins. He's won 10 games in a season 5 times in the 20 seasons he's been there.
I’ve got them at 6-6, but 7-5 or 8-4 could happen. A lot would have to go right for them, IMO, to get to 8-4, so I’m taking the under.
I thought you were crazy on the MSU under, then I went through the schedule and could only find 7 wins.
Yep, I have them at 7-5 as well.
I'm thinking 7-8 tops for them as well. Their defense will be solid (well coached, effort, etc.) but not elite. Their offense should look similar to last season, maybe even a slight step down. The MSU/Wisconsin game will set college football back 50 years.
Any opponent who gets more than a couple FG's up on them may be able to just sit on that for a W. They are also not going to have much behind their starters, on both side of the ball.
That game is going to be so fucking ugly. The battle between a coach attempting to sabotage his offense at all costs and an offense attempting to sabotage its coach at all costs. Who will win? Nobody.
MSU offense a slight step down?
They had trouble scoring 6 points in multiple games last year. It’s still a shit show but if they take a slight step down, they’re looking at 5-7 on the season. That team is not far removed from...3-9.
Slight step down from last season. So I agree with you that it could be a shitshow for them on that side of the ball if that step happens.
I really like the over, if only because our offense should finally be, you know, an offense.
NOT THAT I'VE HAD THESE HOPES BEFORE.
Never, ever, EVER bet on Iowa's win totals. As soon as you take the under on 7.5, they're going to rip off a damn 12-0 start to the season. That's the real chaos team right there.
Signed,
A guy who might still be bitter over a bet that may or may have not been placed in 2015.
This advice ALWAYS. I'm not a gambler, but Iowa is the ultimate contrarian team. And they're due for one of those crazy undefeated-late-into-the-season years. They're also overdue on Ferentz's contract extension through 2050.
Assuming that any decent, well coached, team in the West going to win 7 or less games seems a little unwise. Doubly so for an Iowa team that recently smacked the shit out of OSU.
It's not hard to (1) beat your 3 OOC opponents, and (2) get 5 wins in conferences.
The B1G West is going to be brutal on each other this year. I don't buy all of the Nebraska hype, but they'll be better and in contention in that division. Wiscy is Wiscy, they'll have around 8 wins. Iowa the same. Minnesota has very good WRs, good backs, a decent OL, what I think is a decent QB, and a good DL. They're going to compete with all of those teams this year. And NW is the same as Iowa and Wiscy. Purdue is going to win their share as well. It's going to be a very interesting year over there, I think they'll all be near 3-3 in their division. Getting to 5 depends on the crossover games.
So I have NW (OSU/MSU/Indiana), Wiscy (Mich/MSU/OSU), Iowa (Mich/PSU/Rutger) out of contention.
Purdue (PSU/Indiana/MD), Nebraska (OSU/Indiana/Md), Minnesota (PSU/Rutger/Md) are in.
Wiscy got absolutely screwed with their cross-conference games. And here I was angry that OSU has to play at Northwestern on a Friday night (which has typical trap game written all over it).
Why has Michigan rarely overachieved??? We are usually an underachiever. Just a fan observing the situation. Hope it switches around and we finally upset a higher ranked team. That defines a turning point in a program. Year 5 would be a good start.
I think part of it is psychological.
As in, we're the #1 all-time wins team, we're better academically than almost everyone we ever play, and we're arrogant as hell. Usually rightfully so. All that combines to piss people off, and so we meet an unmotivated, listless, uninterested team much less frequently than other schools do.
Spot on. It could really go either way.
I'll take the over
MSU has ASU, @NW, Indiana, @OSU, @Wisconsin, PSU, @Michigan, and Maryland all on their schedule. Is it difficult to find five losses in those eight games? Hahahahah not at all hahahahah.
Michigan State is going to have a ferocious defense. They may have the best defense in the country, statistically, for most of the season.
ASU - win
@ NW - win
Indiana - win
@ OSU - lol
@ Wisconsin - probable loss
PSU - win
@ Michigan - loss
Give me the over on MSU 7.5 easily.
The problem isn't their defense, but their offense. They had a great defense last year and still went 7-6. You have @NW as a win, but they lost at home last year. They also lost @Nebraska when they couldn't score more than 2 FGs. It's not hard to see them lose those 4 road games and lose to one or more other teams that they shouldn't lose to, especially since this seems like the type of year where they could be all in on beating Michigan to salvage the season.
Defense doesn't win championships anymore in college football. MSU has already peaked under Dantonio and he is on the backside of his career. Put them in with the likes of Wisconsin and Iowa. They can play you tough and if you get down to their level and play a sludge game then anything can happen. Score and make them play offense and they often look silly.
I have no idea what to make of MSU this year. We know their defense will be nasty but their offense made our 2017 offense look like Oklahoma. Then this offseason they don't make any meaningful changes to the coaching staff (even though your Sparty coworkers may try to spin it otherwise).
At this point you could tell me they win anywhere from 6-10 games and I would not be surprised.