OT: Weekend Betting - Week 10

Submitted by BeatOSU52 on November 4th, 2022 at 5:21 PM

Please post your weekend bets, what you're thinking of betting, or whatever to do with betting for the weekend's slate of games.  I'll start (all lines are from when they were placed):

 

(Last week record: 5-4 ; Overall season record: 44-34)

 

Iowa at Purdue, 12pm:  Iowa +3.5

North Carolina at Virginia, 12pm:  North Carolina -7

New Mexico at Utah St , 3:30pm:  New Mexico +16

Tennessee at Georgia, 3:30pm: Georgia -8

Syracuse at Pittsburgh, 3:30pm: Pitt -3.5

Liberty at Arkansas  , 4pm: Liberty +14.5

Alabama at LSU, 7pm:  Over 56.5

Texas at Kansas St, 7pm: Texas -2.5

Clemson at  Notre Dame, 7:30pm:  Clemson -3.5

 

Notable spreads of discussion:

Michigan currently sits as a 26 point favorite over Rutgers.  Over/Under is 45

Ohio St currently sits as a 38  point favorite over Northwestern (at Northwestern )

Illinois currently sits as a 16 point favorite over Michigan St (at Illinois)

Georgia currently sits as an 8 point favorite over Tennessee (at Georgia)

Alabama currently sits as a 13.5 point favorite over LSU (at LSU)

Clemson currently sits as a 4 point favorite over Notre Dame (at Notre Dame)

Wake Forest currently sits as a 3 point favorite over NC St (at NC St)

 

Other lines:

https://www.vegas.com/gaming/sportsline/college-football/

s1105615

November 4th, 2022 at 5:50 PM ^

5 way parlay at whatever the math works out to be $134.46 on a $5 bet:

OSU vs NW OVER 62.5

Maryland +5.5 vs Wisconsin 

Minn vs Nebraska OVER 47

Tennessee +8.5 vs UGA

Penn St -14 vs Indiana

Does anyone expect OSU to show mercy on NW?  Does anyone think the 2nd & 3rd string OSU offense isn’t capable of scoring at will either?  Does anyone really believe this Wisconsin team (that lost to the same MSU that Maryland already beat) will win against Maryland?  Does anyone think Nebraska and Minnesota won’t move the ball on each other (this is probably the one I’m least confident in)?  Has anyone who’s watched Tennessee think they’re losing this weekend, not to mention that UGA losing this weekend virtually guarantees them a slot in the CFP at 11-1?  Does anyone believe IU will hang around with Penn State and keep it that close?

I’m sure one of these will miss, my guess is either Minn/Neb OVER or Penn St -14

befuggled

November 4th, 2022 at 6:46 PM ^

I wouldn't worry about Ohio State showing mercy against Northwestern; I'd worry about them having a letdown or an off game. I mean, this time last year after a relatively close win over Penn State they were pounding Nebraska 26-17 in a game they should have won more handily. They were back to normal against Purdue and MSU, but...

Having said that, this Northwestern team looks worse than that Nebraska team. And if the game does get out of hand, Ohio State can't go too far past their second team because of the size of the travel roster.

Walmart Wolverine

November 4th, 2022 at 6:57 PM ^

I think there is good value in MSU + 16.5 Illinois as a counternarrative play.  

Even with the suspensions I'm investing the the Spartans rallying, shutting down the Illini run game and keeping it close.

1201SouthMain

November 4th, 2022 at 11:04 PM ^

"Things that make you go hmmm"

BeatOSU52, I appreciate your picks. I've used a few and they have won. Thank you. Keep feeding us.

I'm not a conspiracy theory guy at all but tonight's Duke/BC game makes me go "hmmm". Duke is -10. Score is Duke 38/BC 28 with seconds left (yes, I have Duke -10). BC has the ball on Duke's 17 yard line with 22 seconds left. 1st and 10. QB throws a ball over the middle in the end zone that Calvin Johnson couldn't have touched. Fine, receiver wasn't there so throw it away. Now BC has ball 2 and 10 on the 17 with .17 seconds left. Just to make sure I'm clear.  BC is on Duke's 17 yard line with .17 seconds left. BC decides to kick the field goal. Which they know will take 4-5 seconds. So that they can do an onside kick try and get the ball at their own 45 or 50 yard line?

Wouldn't you take at least one more quick shot to the end zone. There are no good options for BC, but if you hit a quick TD you could at least have maybe .12 seconds left for the onside. Get the ball at your own 45 or 50 and take a quick shot to the sideline to set up an impossible field goal? Seems like better option than kicking the field goal when you're at the 17 yard line and knowing your best shot is a one play hail mary! You have to score a TD and you're at their 17. Again, no good path for BC. But why not get the TD while you're close enough to run plays that could result in a TD? Instead, kick the field goal when you're close and set up a more than impossible TD scenario off the onside kick.

Back in the day, nobody knew the line.  Now it's on every ESPN broadcast and website.  The players and the coaches know the lines.  And I'm sure they hear about the lines from their program supporters (boosters).

Things that make me go "hmmm"