OT - Tiger Baseball Predictions This Season
Mates,
It is almost time for the real baseball season and I note that the tigers have lost something like 6 straight games in spring training (today's 0-0 tie excepted) and the last time Verlander pitched this week he got beaten like a rented mule. As far as I can tell the tigers did 'okay' in free agency but losing scherzer, despite the money involved, still didn't help our pitching. So what are the tigers going to do this year, make the playoffs or tank? Baseball officiandos or even those that have uninformed opinions (like mine) are invited to comment.
And before anyone else posts, happy friday, second day of the NCAA tourrnament, and pre-posbang jitter bugs getting ready to fire it up in T-minus 68 minutes.....
March 19th, 2015 at 10:58 PM ^
Hopefully Joe Nathan doesn't make it north. Tigers are still the best team in the central barring any catasrophic injuries- I just hope Ausmus and DD don't spin their wheels letting Nathan blow saves in April and then replacing him... Cut the cord now.
March 19th, 2015 at 11:08 PM ^
March 19th, 2015 at 11:20 PM ^
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March 19th, 2015 at 11:01 PM ^
173-0
March 19th, 2015 at 11:05 PM ^
March 19th, 2015 at 11:07 PM ^
I'm pessimistic. Think we will be sellers at the deadline. Really hope I am wrong.
March 19th, 2015 at 11:09 PM ^
March 19th, 2015 at 11:17 PM ^
Neither wild card is going to come from the central, and I think we'll probably lose the division. I think the White Sox (provided Sale is good to go) and Royals are going to pass the Tigers. They'll probably be right around .500 by season end.
March 19th, 2015 at 11:24 PM ^
The 1st Wild Card has come from the Central the last 2 years but people will continue to claim the division is down.
March 19th, 2015 at 11:33 PM ^
VMart has to have another great season, Miggy has to do the same and be healthy, the rotation isn't going to be as good, bullpen is still unsettled... just don't feel confident at all. Rest of the division is better.
AL West will send two. And then I think O's and one other team from the East gets in.
True. Everyone is older by a year. If you think the Martinez's'ss' (what is the possessive there) can repeat their seasons, I can see why people think they're winning the division. But I don't expect that. Also the rotation is weaker with Price and Sanchez the only seemingly sure things.
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March 19th, 2015 at 11:14 PM ^
KC and Cleveland may be the front runners in this division. The competition has been building and Tigers have been treading water. The White Sox may be the surprised team. If I had to guess 82 wins and a third place finish, about 8 back. May be in competition or a wildcard spot?
March 19th, 2015 at 11:19 PM ^
though admittedly i don't follow the tigers nearly as close as many of you. lets hope we're wrong.
March 19th, 2015 at 11:19 PM ^
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March 19th, 2015 at 11:22 PM ^
KC didn't get better in fact they're a little worse, the Indians look solid but their rotation is a bit young so some struggles could occur in pressure situations. The White Sox look tangibly better but that's a 3 man rotation with nothing behind it, and the Twins are still rebuilding.
In essence I think it's still the Tigers division to win, but it's going to be competitive throughout the entire 162 game schedule. I fully expect JD to continue his pace, especially considering the spring he's had, and Cespedes should slot in nicely behind Miggy and V-Mart.
All in all this team still has the pieces to make a run, even if they're all aging.
Prediction: 90-72 AL Central Champs.
March 19th, 2015 at 11:24 PM ^
This is a preseason prediction based on historic data, so consider that when reading, but here's their quite preliminary look at things in the AL Central:
1) Royals (88-74)
2) Indians (82-80)
3) Tigers (82-80)
4) White Sox (75-87)
5) Twins (74-88)
The records are obviously extremely rough estimates and with zero current season data (hard as the season has not yet begun), but that's how they lined them up for now.
March 19th, 2015 at 11:29 PM ^
The starting staff worries me a little but that's just because it's different with the new arms. They look good on paper and I like their experience.
Their lineup is loaded with the addition of Cespedes. We just have to hope Miggy and Victor are healthy. They're also going to need JD and Castellanos to continue to blossom and provide some power.
I think the defense will be improved. Iglesias and Kinsler should be something to watch. Cespedes can do his thing. From what I've read about Gose it sounds like he can play some center field.
The biggest question will be the bullpen again. They have some arms and you'd have to think some are do for a bounce back year. Soria and Rondon will be key.
I think the second year at the helm will be better for Ausmus. 90 wins and central division champs again. In Dombrowski we trust.
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March 19th, 2015 at 11:38 PM ^
March 19th, 2015 at 11:34 PM ^
86-76
Pitching got so much worse this year.
March 19th, 2015 at 11:35 PM ^
March 19th, 2015 at 11:45 PM ^
March 20th, 2015 at 12:01 PM ^
Please. Call me Jack.
I predict Tiger health, much improved defense, Cespedes raking, Castellanos goes to another level, JD Martinez becomes elite, Miggy/VMart continue, JV bounces back in a huge way because his core is healthy, Nathan gives way to Soria who is an all-star, Rodon is lights out as set-up, Dirty Sanchez wins 18, Ausmus loosens up and the team has fun all year.
My biggest concern about the Tigers since 2006 is leadership. Seems like since Kenny Rogers left, the team has lacked a passionate, vocal, leader who galvinizes the team. Hunter tried. Miggy isn't that guy. Would be great to see someone step up and command the clubhouse like The Gambler did.
March 19th, 2015 at 11:50 PM ^
Much more rounded roster, good mix of speed and power. Starting pitching not as good, but Joe Nathan will be waived and bullpen will show improvement.
Breakout season: Nick Castellanos. .290 +20 hr and 75 rbi
March 19th, 2015 at 11:53 PM ^
March 19th, 2015 at 11:58 PM ^
Umm... 96+76= Not 162, sir.
March 19th, 2015 at 11:56 PM ^
And I really don't like what I have seen.
I loved Ausmus as a player, but he is Tram 2.0 as a manager, and I don't think he can take them to a World Series.He simply makes too many poor decisions, and gets out-managed by the good managers. They need a manager like Harbaugh who will come in, coach them, and not guarantee spots for players just beause they are veterans, or because the GM made a mistake signing or trading for them.
They will miss Porcello and Scherzer, and they did virtually nothing to improve their bullpen, but bring in a washed up lefty who can't get anyone out - Gorzellany. The lineup is slightly better, but how many .233 hitters can you carry ?
83-79 second or third place watching the playoffs at home. You asked.
The former yes, the latter no.
When Leyland first came in, he had a fire in his belly, and something to prove, and it showed by the way that he took a mediocre team, talent wise, and took them all the way to the World Series, but over time his fire faded and went out, and he lost the will to compete, for he no longer argued bad calls against his team, and just kind of laid back, and let whatever happen,happen, and later when had teams with more talent, he was unable to get the results everybody wanted because he was mailing it in.
What the Tigers need is an experienced manager that can compete with the other managers, but still has the will and fire to compete at the highest level, and the desire to win.By the way, did you and Jackie have another kid who coaches baseball?
March 20th, 2015 at 11:07 AM ^
I don't understand the criticism of Ausmus. I think he's a fine manager. How about the fact that he just declared Price the Opening Day starter? First time since 2008 that it will be someone other than Verlander, and Verlander's healthy. If that doesn't say "I'm willing to shake things up and not be handcuffed by tradition or favor the veterans", I don't know what does.
March 20th, 2015 at 12:15 PM ^
I think what he's really trying to say is, "Please don't leave after this year!!"
Last years playoffs, and you will see a first time ever manager, at any level, being outcoached by an experienced, but not great manager, and an inferior team ousting a better team in the first round of the playoffs.
As expressed, like Tram, I always liked Ausmus as a player, but like Tram, as a manager, he makes bad decisions that cost the team ballgames. This team has a window of opportunity to win a championship, and that window is closing, by the time Ausmus becomes a competent manager, that window, with these players, will be closed.
Who starts on opening day is really not a big deal. Who starts a game seven of a playoff series is.
If he doesn't play favorites, all managers do, why was the roster basically set going into spring training, instead of being decided in competition, the way Harbaugh is doing it?
Last years playoffs, and you will see a first time ever manager, at any level, being outcoached by an experienced, but not great manager, and an inferior team ousting a better team in the first round of the playoffs.
What's an example of this? I watched the playoffs (was at game 3 in person :/) and don't remember anything egregious.
March 20th, 2015 at 12:36 AM ^
I don't see Nathan lasting long at all, Soria and Rondon will likely split closing duties.
For me it really all comes down to Justin. A rotation of Price, Sanchez and three mediocre pitchers can't compete with Cleveland (much less LA or Washington), but something close to a 2012 Verlander and a healthy Sanchez are enough to get this team into the playoffs and roll the dice.
Low 90s in terms of win total... Division is getting stronger, and the Indians look like the team to beat (other than the Tigers). Royals got worse, and the White Sox look better although not strong enough to win the division just yet.
With the team, I believe this is a much stronger lineup. Cespedes adds much more depth at the five spot in the lineup, and I believe JD will continue pace or put up an avg. in the .280s with 25+ home runs. Miggy and VMart are still two of the best hitters in all of baseball even with their recent injuries, but I believe they will both be healthy and in it for the long haul this season. I think Castellanos showed some serious potential in his swing last year, so I'm predicting some marginal improvement in his hitting statistics.
In terms of defense, the Tigers upgraded significantly. Cespedes was a solid addition in left and is a huge upgrade in the outfield over the aging Torii Hunter who was a huge liability in right field last season. Not to mention, that they get Jose Iglesias back from shin splints, and he should be a huge upgrade at short (God I'm excited to watch Kinsler and Iggy fill the middle). Castellanos apparently worked a lot of the off season with Omar Vizquel, so expect his defense to be much better at third compared to last season.
I think the bullpen has upgraded, but expect Soria to claim the closer position by mid-May. Nathan has looked awful in spring training. In terms of the rest of the pen, Tigers got Tom Gorzellany who is a solid lefty, and re-signed Joba (low risk, high reward signing). They also get Bruce Rondon back from Tommy John, and he has looked solid so far this spring. It still remains one of their largest question marks, but I'm much more optimistic about it this season.
With starters, Verlander has apparently looked solid this spring other than yesterday's outing. Expect Price and Anibal to be top-notch as well. So fart this spring, Greene and Simon look like solid signings to fill the other rotation spots.
Overall, I'd say somewhere in the range of 90-93 wins and an AL Central title becuase I think with a more experienced Ausmus and a bolstered lineup, there are more doors opened with this team. And if you are still questionable about the rotation, just remember that last season's rotation didn't put up the greatest numbers either. I think the rotation will be just fine.
March 20th, 2015 at 10:48 AM ^
Tigers better win a World Series in the next two years because there is a big drop off coming in the near future. Aging team with absolutely nothing in the farm system.
per usual
89 Wins, 3rd place. Ausmus is not a good manager. Closers suck.
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Offensively, provided Miggy and Martinez can stay on the field, the Tigers should do ok. The defense will be key, because pitching will be mediocre. JV is an above average pitcher now, but not a dominate pitcher. 14 maybe 15 wins..maybe. Price will through everything but the kitchen sink out there because it's a contract year - 20 wins. Sanchez hasn't looked strong at all in quite a while and is prone to fluke injuries 13 wins.
The Tigers Manager may be smart and one the really true nice guys, but he can't fire up the team and get them ready to play and he gets out managed by just about everyone else.
Cleveland is solid. So are the Sox. It's going to be a tough year.
Maybe a .500 team provided the offense can make up for the pitching and the lack of a good strategist in the dugout. Jmho
March 20th, 2015 at 11:41 AM ^
Statistically, JV was one of the worst starters in all of baseball for a long stretch last year. It's going to be tough for him to become a top two starter on a contending team again. Guys are sitting on his fastball. It lacks late movement and he doesn't locate it well.