OT: Ford Shareholder Meeting and Stock Price

Submitted by Mike Damone on May 14th, 2020 at 1:26 PM

At today's Ford Shareholder's meeting:

"We had a very good first quarter last year and our stock was headed in the right direction," said executive chairman Bill Ford, citing the botched Explorer SUV launch in 2019 and warranty issues as factors that "knocked us back."  Now, "coming out of COVID, it really is all about performance and executing on our plan,"

20 years ago, on 5/19/2000 - Ford's stock price was $30.57.  10 years ago, on 5/21/2010 - it had plummeted to $11.26.  3 months ago, on 2/14/20 - pre-Covid and with the rest of market doing great - Ford stock was down to $8.10.  Today, as of this post - the stock price is at $4.83.

In 20 years - it has dropped approx. (84%).

I have never seen such putrid ownership and management of a company.  Covid has nothing to do with its failure.  Henry Ford would be ashamed of how his family has run his amazing company into the ground.  

 

I'mTheStig

May 14th, 2020 at 2:27 PM ^

I have never seen such putrid ownership and management of a company. 

So what you're saying is the Fords run Ford the same way they run the Lions?

Weird.

jclay 2 electr…

May 14th, 2020 at 2:28 PM ^

I have family that has worked for Ford for three generations back. I have an emotional attachment to them. I am the exact kind of person that should be predisposed to buy an American made automobile and yet. . . I hate virtually every vehicle they make. It’s just hard to deny how far Ford seems behind the curve compared to Asian car manufacturers.

Priuses are a super ubiquitous vehicle nowadays among young professionals who have 10 future new car purchases left in them. But what Ford vehicle can you even put up in comparison next to them? They’ve ceded that entire market. Repeat for other vehicle lines. 
 

Ford, to me, just feels like people who make an F150 and a bunch of cheap crap and if you don’t want a truck, why would you even step foot on their lot?

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

May 14th, 2020 at 6:28 PM ^

Working for a foreign-owned company as I do now has only strengthened my opinion that where the company snaps tab A into slot B is of no interest to me.  You'd think it'd be the opposite, but no.  All the money I make for this company goes overseas.  The big decisions are made in that context.  The company has a Party Secretary, which is an unsettling thought and should tell you exactly where this company is based and who I'm making money for.

If the Subaru plant in Indiana closes, Lafayette takes a hit.  But Indiana keeps on chugging just fine.  If Ford or GM close up shop, this whole state is fucked beyond belief.  Simply putting the pieces together here isn't American enough for me.

crg

May 14th, 2020 at 4:35 PM ^

Prius as the most ubiquitous vehicle?  Perhaps for commuters, but if you look at the general distribution of personal vehicles on the road you see SUVs as the largest proportion (and still growing).  Not just US manufacturers, but the Asian producers also - even the European companies, long resistant to that market space, are getting into it.

jclay 2 electr…

May 14th, 2020 at 2:28 PM ^

I have family that has worked for Ford for three generations back. I have an emotional attachment to them. I am the exact kind of person that should be predisposed to buy an American made automobile and yet. . . I hate virtually every vehicle they make. It’s just hard to deny how far Ford seems behind the curve compared to Asian car manufacturers.

Priuses are a super ubiquitous vehicle nowadays among young professionals who have 10 future new car purchases left in them. But what Ford vehicle can you even put up in comparison next to them? They’ve ceded that entire market. Repeat for other vehicle lines. 
 

Ford, to me, just feels like people who make an F150 and a bunch of cheap crap and if you don’t want a truck, why would you even step foot on their lot?

energyblue1

May 14th, 2020 at 2:41 PM ^

It's hard to see Ford struggling and it's stock struggling.  Too much indecision, as imo the 90's till the mid 2000's just gave up markets to other companies.  Too much crying about labor costs when they should have improved the product. 

I'll always by Ford vehicles unless they merge and give up ownership to a foreign company.  Then i'll move to GM if they survive.  I'm a Ford UAW kid, ie Father, Uncle, Grandfather/Great Uncles all worked for FoMoCo.  If not, we'll see from there. 

It's hard for me to see one botched opening in the Explorer being the sole reason the stock is down so far.  I haven't looked but aren't most all auto stocks significantly down from years past? 

WindyCityBlue

May 14th, 2020 at 3:45 PM ^

Contrary to what my handle indicates, I was born in Detroit.  My father worked 33 years for GM all over the world.  He started working there when he was a junior at UofD (before it was UDM).  He gave them his all, they returned it mostly.  For example, he'd love to buy a German car because he thinks they are much better engineers than those in the US, but he just can't because he wants to remain loyal.  He sticks with his Cadillac SRX/CT5 (which is an awesome vehicle BTW).

Anyway, I'll reiterate his words about the Detroit auto industry: "they (as in GM, Ford, etc) are so far behind on the appropriate business model, they all are destined to fail until they evolve.  Like Detroit, they are too stubborn to evolve".  My parents live in the Detroit area now, so they see it first hand.

Ford getting out of the car game (for the most part), is like putting lipstick on a pig.  Ford, GM etc will fail in the coming years unfortunately. 

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

May 14th, 2020 at 6:00 PM ^

That time period you mention, when Jacques Nasser was CEO, really laid the foundation for 15 years of struggles.  When I worked at Ford (no longer do) nobody who had been around then had a good thing to say about Nasser.  He blew nine billion dollars on Volvo and Land Rover, and the PAG was such a drag on resources that they had nothing to invest in Lincoln and Mercury.

There is a ton of money to be made in the luxury market.  The ratio of total profit to total market share of luxury cars is enormous.  That's why Ford keeps trying with Lincoln.  They do as badly with Lincoln as they did with things like the Focus, but you can get the Focus absolutely perfect (and they got close except for the transmissions) and the only money it'll ever make you is the vague hope that you'll convince entry-level buyers to love you for life.  If you get luxury right, you can print money.  But you don't need like six luxury brands to do it.  All the money they sunk into Volvo and Land Rover and Jaguar, they should've been putting into Lincoln.  The Aviator should've existed 20 years ago - it'd be a money tree by now if it had.  Now they're putting money into Lincoln - and the Continental is/was a phenomenally beautiful car - and it doesn't do what it should because people got Lexus in their heads while Lincoln was screwing around with a goddamn pickup truck.

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

May 14th, 2020 at 7:28 PM ^

Well, to be specific, it existed for the 03-05 model years, and it was pure badge-engineered nonsense, less different from the Mercury Mountaineer than the Mountaineer was from the Explorer.  To the extent there was an Aviator, it was a perfect example of what I was saying about spreading all the capital around to too many brands and ignoring Lincoln.

Perkis-Size Me

May 14th, 2020 at 2:42 PM ^

Everything I know about the Fords, I've learned from how they've managed the Lions. 

And that's taught me enough to draw my own conclusions about their general level of competence. 

mgobaran

May 14th, 2020 at 3:45 PM ^

Looks like Ford Stock has been trading between $10 and $15 regularly since 2002, with major dips during the recession, and this COVID outbreak. 

That being said, the stock has been in a free fall for 5+ years. COVID didn't help matters, but all it did was speed up the inevitable. 

Rooting for it to turn around. But removing cars from it's line up to increase profits while lowering total sales seems to have backfired. Not sure how they expect to build brand loyalty when you eliminate most of the entry level vehicles. 

OSUMC Wolverine

May 14th, 2020 at 4:32 PM ^

im not going to directly comment on the quality of fords entry level cars, but if you are no longer focusing on them, and i think its apparent ford gave up on cars several years ago, the cars wont build product loyalty anyway.  i actually agree with fords decision...if your not going to do it right...dont do it.  case in point...ive bought f150s now because the rangers i owned earlier never gave me trouble and could do everything i asked of them.  if those rangers had not been durable.....

johnthesavage

May 14th, 2020 at 4:25 PM ^

Ford didn't enjoy the benefits of chapter 11 reorganization that other automakers did. These numbers are indeed bad but compare with for example GM, that stock went to 0 and had to be completely reissued during this time frame, which indicates worse management. However they now benefit from some constraints being lifted, particularly when competing with Ford.

Ringer19

May 14th, 2020 at 4:29 PM ^

Alan Mulally was a rock star and Ford would be smart to find a way to get him back in the mix to get things turned around if it's not too late.

 

Derek

May 14th, 2020 at 4:47 PM ^

I'm not saying you're wrong about Ford management, but price return is not very meaningful for a company that pays a dividend.

Pliny

May 14th, 2020 at 6:46 PM ^

Lampert played it up as a real estate deal.  Sears owned most if not all of their stores.  It seems investors ignored the covenants regarding the use of the stores.

           

LewisBullox

May 14th, 2020 at 8:25 PM ^

It's almost like the American automotive industry has been struggling since roughly the days of the new Ford Taurus. This is not news and not unique to Ford let alone the auto industry given 2008 and covid. And beyond automotive, the picture is the same for much of American manufacturing (take a look at GE).

You got your poke in at Ford, but don't forget they fared a lot better than GM or FCA during 2008.

ClarkstonBlue

May 15th, 2020 at 8:55 AM ^

Don't get me wrong, Ford's performance has been pitiful when compared to the rest of the market. However, you have to put in context. It's 2 largest domestic rivals filed for bankruptcy and were able to restructure their costs and balance sheet. I remember thinking at the time that Ford would be at a competitive disadvantage for years to come. 

DoubleB

May 15th, 2020 at 9:02 AM ^

I don't follow Ford, but I think you at least need to mention dividends paid out over the last 20 years to get a better feel for the investment.

Cock D

May 15th, 2020 at 9:18 AM ^

Wait a sec - I remember Ford recapitalized in 2000; the Family essentially bought back 2/3 of the value of the company with shareholders getting a new share with reduced vote / value alongside a cash payment (don't ask me how I remember).

Is the price you cite prior to the recap or after the recap?  If the former, it's apples to drywall; if the latter, it's criminal.