OT - 2011 Stanley Cup Odds
Change of pace on a crazy day.
Bodog just set futures odds for the 2011 Stanley Cup. Blackhawks lead the pack at 11-2, Red Wings are fifth at 12-1. The top 10 teams:
1. Chicago Blackhawks 11-2
2. Pittsburgh Penguins 6-1
3. Washington Capitals 13-2
4. San Jose Sharks 9-1
5. Detroit Red Wings 12-1
6t. Vancouver Canucks 15-1
6t. Philadelphia Flyers 15-1
8. Buffalo Sabres 18-1
9t. Boston Bruins 20-1
9t. New Jersey Devils 20-1
After a tough year for the Wings, odds like this say a lot about the respect the organization garners.
[This information is provided purely for entertainment purposes.]
Already? It hasn't even been 24 hours. Let the Hawks enjoy this one at least a little before you make them defend it.
that seems off. is there a free agent they're expecting to lose?
Could be going to the KHL. Offering something like 48M for 3 years?
http://insider.espn.go.com/nhl/features/rumors/_/date/20100608
But the Devils keeping him seems like a real long shot for the dollars he is looking for.
if that offer was fake. The Moscow team folded because of lack of funding and they had to let Hudler go who was only making $5M/yr. If I had a choice between 3 Hudlers or one Kovalchuk, I think I would have to go with 3 Hudlers.
That neither the Blackhawks nor the Penguins are playing in the finals...
I'll take that wager in a second. The Penguins will be FAR better next season. Their team next will be better than either of their teams that went to the Finals. They lose nothing of value to UFA, lose several UFAs that were dead weight and didn't fit and have several very nice pieces moving up in the system.
They also only return 3 defenseman (for sure), all of whom have their deficiences (Letang and Gologoski more so than Orpik who has really rounded out pretty well since the Olympics). Losing Gonchar will hurt if it happens, and they don't really have anyone to replace him.
I expect them to try to keep Leopold if Gonchar isn't retained, but that still leaves them with 3 so-so offensive defensemen and only one solid rock on the back end. It'll be interesting to see who they sign, but I really expect another rough year for their blueline. The silver lining is that they have a LOT of solid defensemen in their system (Despres, Strait, etc.) who may be able to help in 2011-12.
Not to mention the fact that they need to get a solid winger for Malkin. Tangradi is talented but unproven in the NHL. Having 2 superstars is great, but at 8.7 million a piece it really cuts into your budget. Obviously its a formula that has worked at least once, but I just don't see them putting the pieces together next year.
will fall apart.
One and done.
Are you bat shit crazy? They are an uber young team and will be a power in the west next season...and for many seasons to come.
They are a super talented, super young team, but I believe they have all but like a million bucks worth of salary tied up in just half the team for the next season or two.
If Scotty Bowman and son figure out a way to ink their other key players, and somehow drop the contracts of Campbell and Huet, then the dynasty in waiting talk will have some serious merrit. That will also make me realize that Scotty Bowman is the smartest fucking man alive who has somehow been spending the better part of his life coaching hockey.
Locking up Hossa was a bad move imo. It's created a tricky cap situation that's more likely to cripple the Hawks rather than sustain their momentum.
To backup what rick said, depending how bonuses work out, the Hawks have negative to no cap space to sign half their team. To fill a roster, you can get around the cap with bonus based salaries, but the following year you take a cap hit equal to realized salaries - cap.
The Hawks have 11 players up for free agency, including Niemi. If Kane and Toews hit their bonuses for this season, which I believe they did, and the Hawks don't resign any of the 11 free agents, they still need to clear ~2.5 mil of cap space. This is due to Kane and Toews each receiving ~5.5 mil raises and for Duncan Keith ~6 mil. Next year, they will pay 5 of the top 40 salaries and 3 of the top 20. They are almost sure to lose either Byfuglien or Seabrook or both after next year.
There core is top-tier, but they've left themselves with very few options.
The cap is expected to go up accounting for player salary increases. While the Hawks still need to clear up room and drop the anchor that is Cristobal Huet, it's not the dire situation that many are making it out to be. We'll lose depth, but having our core there will allow us to still be a top team in the West.
Having a top core is only half the equation. Your core is no better than the Red Wings core, or the Sharks core, or in my (perhaps lousy) opinion, the Kings core. You don't win stanley cups anymore without quality depth. I think if you guys get stuff figured out and have a decent third and fourth line this time next season, you could be challenging the Wings for best franchise territory heading into this next decade.
By the way, I'm really not trying to rain on your parade. I originally just wanted to refute the guy who claimed that it was "batshit crazy" to assume the salary cap issues would impede Chicago from being one of the top teams in the west for "years to come"
I understand the Hawks will have cap problem, but with Keith, Kane, and Toews signed for multiple years, the issue the Hawk's will have is building around their core. This is a good problem to have, in my opinion, because it means you have a talented core to work with.
Even if they screw up finding depth players royally, with Kane and Toews and two lines of scrubs, the Hawks will be good enough to push for the playoffs for the next few years. I guess I didn't mean the Hawk's will win the next four Stanly Cups, but they aren't going to just break up and fade away.
I'm not trying to be combative here, but the salary cap is calculated by the combined revenue of the NHL teams and has nothing to do with player salaries. It is still yet to be determined how the NHL's ownership of Pheonix will play into this calculation. It was repoted by Elliotte Friedman this fall than owners excepted a 5-10 mil cap decrease. This number was revised in the winter to a 0-1 mil decrease. If the cap decreases, players salaries are scaled down by the percentage of the decrease. We should know the 2011 cap within the next few weeks.
Also, this isn't the NFL where you can cut a player and not pay him. The NHL has guaranteed salaries. If you buyout a player, it still counts against the cap, but is spread over twice as many years as remaining on the contract.
It's not a dire situation, though Chicago clearly has the worst cap situation in the league.
"The cap is expected to go up"
Minimally, if at all.
I will preface, I am a Blackhawks fan, so take my thoughts for what they are worth. I can't argue that we may be one and done, because winning a Stanley Cup is god damned hard. The Red Wings earned all their Cups, but it might have skewed your view of how difficult it can be.
But, implying they fall apart is foolish. The core of their team, Duncan Keith, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, and Marian Hossa are locked up for the next 5 years. While they admittedly have serious cap issues and will likely lose 1,2, maybe 3 free agents this year, they will still be an incredibly deep team, albeit slightly less deep. There is no way they fall apart. They will be at or near the top of the Western Conference for years to come. Winning multiple Cups, well, that's another story.
Let's let them soak this one up for a bit.
Most people that follow them closely look at the fact that they are only returning four defensemen (Orpik, Eaton (he's a UFA, but he'll re-sign), Letang and Goligoski) as a good thing. Lovejoy will be ready in 2010 and all speculation points to going after a mid-tier UFA defensemen to round out the group. Leopold most likely won't be back, but if he is then look for either Letang or Goligoski to be moved. As for the wing situation, look for Tangradi to make the team in 2010 and I'll bet money that they sign Ray Whitney at a discount. Pittsburgh was the only team that Whitney was willing to waive is NMC for at the deadline, but the two teams couldn't work out a deal.
Goligoski isn't that good. He's decent offensively, but is a massive liability defensively. He's a poor man's Mike Green.
Tangradi isn't the solution to the Penguins' winger problem, at least not right now. He scored 17 goals in 65 games at the AHL level this past season. He's not going to be an upgrade over anyone the Penguins have to play with Crosby or Malkin next season.
Ray Whitney is 38 years old. He's basically Bill Guerin of two years ago. Yeah, he's a decent player, but banking on a guy in the twilight of his career to be the difference between a second round playoff exit and a Stanley Cup is a lot to ask.
The three-deep center rotation of Crosby, Malkin, and Staal means that the Penguins will always be in contention. But at some point, they need a few good (not necessarily top-shelf) wingers to play with those guys. Montreal showed what it takes to beat Pittsburgh - shut down the center of the ice. Yeah, Halak played out of his mind in that series, but Montreal was the 8 seed for a reason - they weren't a great team. A team that plays solid and disciplined team defense is going to be able to contend with Pittsburgh come playoff time.
Besides, if you're going to assume the AHL call-ups are the solution, I'd say Washington looks to be in a good position next year, with Alzner and Carlson coming up to solidify the defense for them. Plus they have around 10-12 million to sign a handful of forwards, only one of which they need for a top 2 line player. Go after an aging but decent center like Saku Koivu (if they can't retain Morrison), to play with Semin on the second line, and they have one hell of an offense again next year.
Gologoski is better than you give him credit for. He's young, and definitely has the potential to be good. His playoff performance was a good sign for the future. That said, he isn't going to turn into Nick Lidstrom by next season.
As someone who follows the AHL and scouting closely, stats are often very misleading. It's not uncommon for players who dominate the AHL to have problems translating their game to the NHL. Tangradi has the potential to be a 1st line winger, and when you throw him on a line with Crosby or Malkin, he is likely to have a good rookie showing. That said, I actually think Nick Johnson might be a better player next year than Tangradi, though probably not in the long run.
Ray Whitney =/= Bill Guerin. He's still got a lot more jump to his game. That said, I think the reason the Penguins won't sign him is that Whitney wants 3 years and Shero will probably only give him a max of 2. It's just too hard to judge older players.
Yeah, this is all pretty much right on the money. I think the Whitney contract length issue will work itself out, though. AHL stat translation is a horrible evaluative tool for projecting a player's effectiveness at the NHL level. The problem with most casual observer's evaluations of Goligoski is that their only exposure to his game was during the playoffs, which wasn't good.
I actually thought he was a lot more consistent during the playoffs. He was normally in good position, and used his stick effectively. He's going to have to get a little tougher on the boards, start having better shot selection, and get the one timer down better on those backdoor powerplay chances that Crosby likes so much. Still, I thought he did pretty well for a rookie. If anything, I expected more out of Gonchar and Eaton, both of whom played terribly.
He was alright positionally in the defensive zone, but he got killed on his decisionmaking in the neutral zone and at the blue line. Those are mistakes that he'll learn from and get better at, so I'm not overly worried about that. The real problem for him, though, was that the pairing with Letang just didn't work out. Ideally they would have liked to have paired both of them with someone more defensively oriented, like they did the previous two years with Letang.
Note that, for Tangradi, I said next season. I'm not doubting his potential down the road. But I would be surprised if he goes much beyond 20 goals if he spends next season on the big club, even if he finds time next to Crosby and/or Malkin.
I'm still not sold on Goligoski, sorry. He has the potential to be a real asset on the offense, but I think he makes a few too many mistakes in his own zone to be considered a solid all-around defenseman. His positioning is ok, he's about as physical as you would expect for an offensive defenseman of his size, but I don't think he's a great 1-on-1 defender. Letang is leaps and bounds beyond Goligoski as far as I'm concerned.
Thank you for giving me a classic outsiders perspective on the situation.
Except for the fact that I live in Pittsburgh, have been following the team as my #2 team behind Detroit since I was little (family originally from the area), and have watched roughly 80% of their games for the past 3 years.
Leopold > Eaton, though Eaton followed Shero from Nashville so there somes to be some connection there. Objectively though, I'd try to sign Leopold first.
Lovejoy is no more than a 6th or 7th d-man. He's 26 years old, and couldn't consistently crack the lineup this past year on a less than stellar blue line that was full of injuries. He's not particularly good at anything, and I doubt he plays more than a handful of games next year barring major injuries. As I said though, watch for Strait and Despres to make a strong push in two years for starting spots.
If the Penguins don't sign Gonchar, they'll have the cash to get a few decent defensemen or a winger. I think their biggest weakness is on the blueline, so I expet them to make a run at Michalek and Colaiacovo, probably both within their price range.
The Penguins couldn't get Whitney because Whitney wants 3 years on his next contract and Shero has always been shrewd with non-core players. I don't think anything has changed in that regard with either party, so I expect the Penguins to look elsewhere.
You're selling Lovejoy short. He's been a late bloomer and I'm perfectly comfortable with my projection that he'll play a substantial role on the blue line next season. Strait and Despres won't make the jump, barring an absolute jump in their readiness over the summer. I agree that they'll pursue one of the mid to lower top tier defense UFAs. Gonchar is gone.
I think you're misreading Shero's position on non-core players a little bit. It's not that he won't go over two years on non-core players, but rather that he won't go over two years on third and fourth line, non-core players.
I'll take your bet.
12-1, hmmm? With Lidstrom and Hudler and Holmstrom back, there is some money to be made at 12-1.
I just want my LEAFS to make the playoffs. When Cammy went to Montreal instead of TO I was crushed. Turned out well for him though.
People dont realize that Niemi is a Restricted FA currently making 800k, I'm pretty sure after being the starter on the team that won the cup hes going to command a couple of million. John Madden is also a UFA.
The money tied up in Toews, Kane, Keith, Hossa, Campbell, is crazy. They easily account for more than half the cap. So they will be intact but what about the raises Niemi, Sopel, Seabrook, Byflugen, and Sharpe are going to ask for? They have some manuevering to do.
Thats why Ken Holland is so respected, he's able to maintain talent and salary.
With 5 unrestricted FA, 3 restricted FA and Niemi eligible for arbitration while already sitting pretty close to the cap number depending where it ends up, they are in for a tough summer after the party stops.
Cap hit by player: http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=CHI
So the hawks have to sign 9 guys including Niemi and they are already at the cap limit... Not sure what math anyone is using that thinks they will be fine... if all 9 came in at the league min you are still looking at 5 million in additions, so who is getting traded? If they can send Huet down and have him play in the minors I think they get his $$ back, and trade Campbell to get that 7+mil off the books. Then there might be room to lock up Niemi and bring back SOME of their depth guys. That is about the only way the Hawks can keep this thing rolling.
This is the same thing that happened to the wings. They kept the core but the depth went away. When they weren't destroying teams with their 3rd and 4th lines and the top two lines HAD to produce it got way harder to put teams away. As a wings fan I hope the hawks can do it. This would be a great rivalry for years to come. The last hawks cup came in a victory over the Wings.. Lets bring back the hate, and make this the one (and only one) great rivalry in the west.
team didn't win
free agency are completely worthless