OPINION: My proposed solution to college football's alignment [and playoffs] chaos
Disclaimer: These proposed changes would only apply to Division 1 FBS football programs.
The content of this post is also contained (and easily viewable) here...
Spreadsheet Link:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184j9VooRjEkvK2mcFzTJYqStmUXwK_HoicBZ0CR1kXo/edit#gid=0
Map Imgur Link:
https://imgur.com/gallery/f2FpuSv
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Rules:
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Regular season is 12 games long.
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All Tier A teams will play every other Tier A team in their Region (i.e. round robin). This is also true for all Tier B teams in the East, Midwest, South Central, and Southeast Regions. However, since the West Region's Tier B will always comprise 14 teams, scheduled opponents (and effectively the one week of excluded matchups) will be determined according to a random draw performed at the beginning of each season.
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At the end of every season, the bottom 2 teams from each Region's Tier A will be relegated (into their Region's Tier B) according to the year-end standings, which are determined (in order) by: 1. Overall record 2. Head-to-head 3. Team coefficient†.
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At the end of every season, the top 2 teams from each Region's Tier B will be promoted (into their Region's Tier A) according to the year-end standings, which are determined (in order) by: 1. Overall record 2. Head-to-head 3. Team Coefficient†.
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†Team Coefficient is a fully disclosed, algorithmic ranking that resets at the beginning of each season and is calculated on a cumulative, season-long basis. The Team Coefficient should factor in record, strength of schedule, and various team efficiency metrics (e.g. box score statistics and other advanced analytics) as a weighted average relative to 100.
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Playoff structure is set up for 16 teams, and teams that win their Regional Conference Title (in Tier A) are guaranteed a playoff spot (i.e. 5 of the 16 spots) as one of the top 5 seeds. The remaining 11 spots and seedings (of all teams) are determined according to the Team Coefficient scoring. Note: If a team does not win their Regional Conference Title but manages a Team Coefficient score that is higher than one of the top 5 seeds, that team is still confined to the second "pool" of playoff slots (i.e. 6 through 16) to preserve geographic parity and distribution of Regional Champions in the bracket for the first round of the playoffs.
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First 2 rounds of the playoffs are played at the higher-seeded team's home stadium.
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Second 2 rounds of the playoffs are played at rotating neutral site stadiums.
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Tier B will also have its own 8-team playoff with the participants determined in the same manner as for Tier A (i.e. according to who won their Regional Conference Titles and according to who are the teams with the next 3 highest Team Coefficients), where the winner of this bracket secures one season of immunity from relegation following promotion. That said, the third worst team in a Region (Tier A) would also never be relegated. E.g., The winner of the Tier B 20X2-20X3 playoffs secures immunity from relegation for the 20X3-20X4 season and ends up finishing the 20X3-20X4 season in the bottom 2 of their Region's Tier A -- they would be safe, but so would the team with the third worst place in the standings of that Region (i.e. #11 of 13). So in some years, there might be only 9 teams relegated and 9 teams promoted as opposed to 10 (=2x5) and 10 [see above].
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Bowl exhibitions will occur for all teams with records that exceed .500 (i.e. at least 7 regular season wins), divided into a Tier A bowl schedule and a Tier B bowl schedule. Note: All exhibitions will be inter-Regional to promote out-of-conference matchups.
Benefits:
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Conference alignments make sense geographically and achieve greater balance and parity throughout the country.
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Standardization of conference sizes.
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Majority of rivalries are preserved.
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No more arbitrary divisions.
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All teams in the same conference will play each other at least once per season (for the exception of West Tier B).
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No more worry of smaller conferences/teams being "on the outside looking in" and wrongly excluded from the playoffs.
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No more Illuminati playoff committee.
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Expanded playoffs.
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Smaller schools can now play for promotion and significant program growth.
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Added excitement and competition at the bottom of A Tiers and at the top of B Tiers.
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"Open-sourcing" of the Team Coefficient scoring creates trust among fans and standardizes team rankings (AP and Coaches' Polls would be rendered pointless).
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Preservation of a post-season bowl exhibition schedule for out-of-conference play.
Preemptive note about Duke and Arizona: Both would have been relegated after last season. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ And about Houston: I'm confident they would challenge for promotion next season.
Diary! Looking forward to getting into this more when I have the time.
I'd take it in a heartbeat. Anything to see more competitive regular season games and not have to watch the usual smattering of bodybag games pitting Alabama vs. Charleston Southern or Michigan vs. (insert directional Michigan University).
You've obviously put much thought into this. Unfortunately, it is not about what makes sense or what the fans might like. It is about what makes the most money (not for college football as a whole, but for individual teams, or conferences).
FBS should have been split up into two subdivisions. 4 Power conferences in FBS-A (18 team leagues), and the 4 remaining conferences in FBS-AA.
Conference champions make the playoffs. Seeding based on SOS. Both FBS-A and AA have a playoff, and can compete against one another and in the Bowls.
Every team starts the year with the chance to win a National Championship. Win your conference and you have a seat at the table. Simple as that.
Expanded playoff because it makes CCG quarterfinal games in the region of the teams playing.
TV Money galore.
I started by considering 4 power conferences, but the breakdown never made as much sense as this, IMO.
I think an even number probably would have led to the cleanest way to do things. This would create 4 conferences where every team borders a conference neighbor. Also, it keeps every Power team in each state in the same conference.
West
Arizona, ASU, USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon St, Oregon, WSU, Washington, Boise, BYU, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, K-State, Nebraska, Colorado State (or SDSU).
Midwest
Texas, A&M, TTU, Houston, Baylor, TCU, LSU, Ole Miss, Miss St, Tenn, Vandy, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Ok St, Missouri, Iowa, Iowa St, Minnesota
Great Lakes and Northeast
Michigan, MSU, Wisconsin, Illinois, NW, Indiana, ND, Purdue, OSU, Cincinnati, WV, Pitt, Penn St, Rutgers, Syracuse, BC, Kentucky, Louisville
Southeast
Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Florida St, Miami, UCF, USF, Georgia, GA Tech, Clemson, South Carolina, UNC, NC State, Duke, Wake, UVA, Va Tech, Maryland
I like the parsimony and logic of this compared to the original post; however, you might as well go 20 teams in each of the 4 regions and have 2 divisions in each.
Play a 12 game schedule with 9 games from the division and 3 OOC games per team and a championship game of division champions to be region champs and go to the final round. This preserves the feel of the game AND makes a lick of sense. Everybody likes cupcakes...
WESTERN SKY
NNW div SSW div
Wash USC
Oregon UCLA
OR ST AZ
WA ST ASU
Stanford SDSU
UTAH Colorado
BYU Cal
Boise ST Hawaii
Utah ST AF
Nevada UNLV
HIGH PLAINS DRIFTERS
Good Guys Bad Guys
Iowa Iowa ST
Texas Texas A&M
Kansas ST Kansas
LSU Arkansas
Houston Texas Tech
Okla OK ST
Baylor TCU
Nebraska Wyoming
Colo ST New Mexico
Tulsa NMSU
GREAT RIVERS AND LAKES
Midwest Middle East
Michigan Oh ST
MSU Penn ST
Wisconsin Cincinnati
NW BC
Minnesota ND
Illinois Pitt
Mizzou WV
Memphis Rutgers
Indiana Syracuse
Purdue Maryland
CONFERACY
Reformed Counter-Reformed
Alabama Auburn
Florida FSU
Miami UCF
GA Tech UGA
So Carolina Clemson
Kentucky Tenn
UNC NC State
VT UVA
Duke Louisville
Ole Miss Miss ST
This leaves out the Mac and many would be independents so I like the idea of 2 play-in games featuring a representative from this category and ONE or THREE at-large bids from the major conferences to spice up the bowl game time frame. Then, the number of "extra" bowl games should be reduced to about 6 games that are all an honor rather than a waste of planetary resources.
I am so damn jealous of some of you who have the amount of free time that you have (says the asshole typing this during the middle of the work day)
I like it, and commend you for the effort. Very impressive
I wanted to downvote this so being some random person's opinion but the bar is now so low that the fact that you started the title with "OPINION" made me like this from the start
I'm not even sure why this is a difficult problem anymore. If SEC lets the 4 ACC schools in, then grab at least 3 more schools so the ACC can dissolve and grab all the schools you want from the Pac12. Hell, even grab Kansas. We're talking about a lot of teams, but divide them into regions with round robins and crossovers between divisions ACC-B1G-Challenge-style.
I was fully planning to downvote based on the title as everyone seems to think they have the perfect solution. You sir, may have the best, most thought out solution I've seen. This really would be quite optimal. I think any solution that includes actual transparent (objective) performance metrics and excludes any type of subjective items such as coaches/media based rankings is a great system.
Unfortunately something like this will never happen due to TV contract$.
Well done though, keep pushing.
You don’t understand the issue. The issue isn’t figuring out how to break DI into divisions or how to run a 16 team playoff.
You don’t answer the real question which is who has control and power and why would conferences and specific teams want to give up the control and power they have now for your proposal.
Cool map! But where is Team 131 (the James Madison Dukes)?
Lol, feel free to edit Wikipedia, that's where I got the map. I just drew the lines.
Great effort here - a really nice "blank slate" revamp of the CFB landscape.
I really.like the promotion/relegation idea, but I worry how the transfer portal would affect a relegated team. Probably lots of kids jumping ship to stay in Tier A making it even tougher to earn promotion.
The biggest concern I'd have is the loss of in-season inter-regional games. Oregon-Ohio State, UM-Washington, Notre Dame-USC - these interesting matchups could only happen in the playoffs or bowl games under this system.
True, and I suppose you could expand the season on the front-end by a week or two to accomodate those games. I just chose to prioritize keeping the regular season at 12 games, instituting round robin scheduling, and expanding the playoffs.
I think we should take a lesson from the English football leagues and have the best move up each year, and the worst move down.
So for next year, Jacksonville Jaguars move to SEC, Alabama and Georgia move up to the NFL, and the Lions move to the Big Ten (12,14, whatever).
Someone else asked the first question which popped into my head while reading this, why would the conferences want this? As a member of the Big Ten what is my share of GOR versus being in this Hodge podge? IF that money is less, why would Michigan even entertain it? So that they reduce funding to LAX, soccer, softball or field hockey?
With the move of USC and UCLA to the Big Ten there seems to be this wave of people talking about loss of regional support. What about Michigan alumni in southern California? Do you think they are all up in arms about traveling to the Rose Bowl or the Coliseum to see Michigan play?
What has been wrong with the CFP so far? Who are the undeserving teams?
Relegation, another wild idea ripping through people's brains. That has more merit if schools simply played one sport. So does Kansas get relegated for it's football program but now it's basketball program beats up on who? Who do these schools play in soccer, LAX, volleyball, baseball, track and field, field hockey, gymnastics?
Many people in America look at the promotion/relegation system European sports leagues have with fondness, and try to replicate that in America.
Well, there isn't a sport that's better suited for a promotion/relegation system than college football.
Nice work. I've always liked the idea of fluid conference membership and have never thought of a tier type program!