Wolverine In Iowa

August 31st, 2014 at 3:44 PM ^

I thought MSU's secondary looked a tad shaky against JSU.  11 points might be right on the nose here.  I will not be betting on this game, because MSU has a crazy way (recently) of getting super-jacked up for their big games, and this could be the biggest of these guys' careers.  In sum, if somehow the line moves toward Oregon a half or a point more, I may bet on MSU.

AZBlue

August 31st, 2014 at 4:05 PM ^

MSU also seemed to struggle running the ball on Friday against JSU - they too have a lot of inexperience on the OL. If they cannot pound the rock - which is how Stanford has beaten the Ducks - they are going to be in trouble. the passing game looked good, I guess, but most of those big plays were flat out busts by the JSU secondary.

On that note - in watching UNL, MSU, OSU, and PSU play this week I noticed that every game featured at least one HUGE deep pass where the receiver was essentially uncovered. I think those plays skew the scoring results a bit. M didn't have one of those, which I am hoping is due to the fact that we didn't want/need to reveal it and not due to our inability to get open or protect DG.

MaizeNBlueTexan

August 31st, 2014 at 3:35 PM ^

Basically ND stomped Rice and Golson looked good. Michigan stomped App State and our Oline/run game looked good.

The biggest issues with both teams, ND's depleted defense, and our run game, both passed the eye ball test against weaker opposition.

Really surprised they didn't just give Mich +3. Maybe Vegas thinks this could be a sucker bet?

Bigku22

August 31st, 2014 at 3:45 PM ^

The idea of a game spread is not to nail the point differently to an exact measure, but rather attempt to ensure the money bet on the game is evenly distributed. I think UM has some negative public perception after last year, while ND is always a favorite of the betting public. Spread is likely inflated by a few points for those reasons. Agreed +3 would be a more accurate depiction of outcome.

XM - Mt 1822

August 31st, 2014 at 4:43 PM ^

in any game.  they put the spread in the place where they get an even amount bet on each side of a proposition.   they get a 10% vig on every bet that stays with them, and they simply take whatever is bet in the right hand and put it in the left hand as a payout. 

SF Wolverine

August 31st, 2014 at 3:39 PM ^

Do not bet on or against Sparty. I think our game is lower variability than Sparty at Oregon, and 5.5 is a pretty good spread with our defense and their banged-up/suspended defense.

ghost

August 31st, 2014 at 3:47 PM ^

Statement game for Oregon.  They have spent the entire off-season hearing about that great MSU D.  Oregon by at least two TDs.  MSU has not seen an offense anything like Oregon's.

JT4104

August 31st, 2014 at 4:20 PM ^

Osu spread last year isn't anywhere near what Oregon wants to do. OSU last year spread you out at a decent tempo and then power ran with Hyde.

Oregon will be much faster than OSU at getting to the line and they will try to get outside.

With that said.....I dont think Helfrich is remotely the coach Chip Kelly is and I'm not sure he can get past Narduzzi's constant pressure attacking D.

I Like Burgers

August 31st, 2014 at 4:40 PM ^

If MSU gets blown out, or even just loses by the line of 11, its bad news for the Big Ten's odds of getting in the CFB playoff.  At that point, MSU has to win out and hope Oregon wins out or has a close loss to make the playoff.  And for anyone else in the Big Ten to make it, they basically need to go undefeated.  I don't think a 1 loss Big Ten team will make it this year.

HAIL-YEA

August 31st, 2014 at 7:36 PM ^

how old are you??  Michigan does not need the B1G to have a good reputation to recruit or make the playoff. Michigan can do both on its own merits, we don't need the B1G to prop us up.

 The worst case scenario for us would be for MSU to make the playoff anyway. Why the hell would I wan't MSU to get another boost in rep and recruiting, they are a pain in the ass as it is right now.

ST3

August 31st, 2014 at 4:42 PM ^

in the limited time I watched them Friday night, they appeared to be dealing with some injury issues on offense. I'd check the injury report before placing any bets.

SFBlue

August 31st, 2014 at 5:02 PM ^

ND looked very good offensively against Rice.  I mean, historically good, as in I have not seen ND with a quarterback this good in 25 years.  You would have to go back to 1988, 1989.  I do not know how much of that was due to, perhaps, Rice being down from last year, and in any event not very good.  Golston looked to be much-improved.  He made several jaw-dropping throws, and showed terrific quickness in turning up the field and running.  He has a higher ceiling than Gardner, and I think that is worth about a touchdown in the outcome, even with ND short-handed on defense.

To me, +5.5 sounds about right whereas the Sparty line seems unduly deferential to Oregon. 

Jeff09

August 31st, 2014 at 5:27 PM ^

I usually don't bet on Michigan but I'm tempted at +5.5, that's absurd. Color me skeptical on ND's ability to cover our WRs.

I'm also tempted to take MSU. They are PRECISELY the type of D that has been able to mess up Oregon's timing/offense recently

Gentleman Squirrels

August 31st, 2014 at 5:38 PM ^

I want to go Michigan by 4 (keeping with recent ND-Mich history) but I feel like with our WRs and ND's secondary issues, this could be a much bigger margin. This game stays close till mid 3rd quarter and then Michigan racks up the score in the 4th. 

ShadowStorm33

August 31st, 2014 at 6:21 PM ^

Great! Because of the history here, one of my biggest fears actually is being the favorite in this game. Since '97, we're 5-5 as the favorite (by gametime, we were actually slightly favored in 2008), and 4-1 as the underdog, straight up, in the series. Our only loss as the dog in that span was in 2012, when we thoroughly outplayed them, weathered 6 int's and still nearly won. And if memory serves correctly, the underdog winning straight up trend goes back at least to the early 90s. Go Blue!

alum96

August 31st, 2014 at 6:35 PM ^

I like the road dogs in both games.  I'd place UM at a 45% chance to win outright so give me 5+ points and I think that is good.  It avoids the +3 and +4 difference that is common in football games. 

And F MSU in that game - no way I want them to win it.   Unless something crazy happens we are not headed to the playoffs so I sure don't want Sparty to go there especially after last year.  All they need to do is win 2 games at that point and they are national champs and defense wins championships so excuse me for outwardly rooting against our division opponent and rival to beat Oregon for conference pride.  Screw that.

LSA Superstar

August 31st, 2014 at 6:49 PM ^

So am I the only michigan fan that finds the msu/Oregon line completely horrifying? I stay away from wacky lines like the plague but it's so so so tempting... i cannot imagine msu would lose this game by over eleven frickin points. I always try to "guess the line" before I see it to sanity check my impressions of teams. I thought I would see MSU +6, maybe even +7. But +11? That seems insane.

Perd Hapley

August 31st, 2014 at 9:23 PM ^

My theory is either.... A) Most ND fans are older plus 50s and hence have more money to bet on ND which skews the line each week. Vegas knows this and moves line to get more mich action(more appealing line to mich fan/betters). Home field is always +3 anyways. B) vegas knows something we don't example- peppers injury will keep him out/ not 100% I am hoping it is A. Vegas just wants to have 50% money on each side so they can take their 10% juice and that's all they care about.

Leonhall

August 31st, 2014 at 9:42 PM ^

Beats Oregon, hate to see it, but I could see them doing what Stanford has done a couple of times. For us, hArd to say, playing @ND is always tough for us. This ND team is good offensively, defense, I think we'll score points. This is a BIG early season test for our defense.

phork

August 31st, 2014 at 11:40 PM ^

Be aware that Daniels, Russell and Williams will most likely be back for this game.  Which makes the team better by shifting Riggs from CB to safety and can easily cover your WRs.  

Michigan had no missing players of note, so ND gets a bump.  ND is a 3 point favorite without the impending "news" that the odds makers already know.

GoBLUinTX

September 1st, 2014 at 2:01 AM ^

prohibited from football activities since the middle of August, will they really be available for immediate play on Saturday?  Or was it one of those wink and nod type suspensions...so long as Kelly didn't see them at practice, wink wink, they weren't at practice, nod nod.

MichiganTeacher

September 1st, 2014 at 1:31 PM ^

Like the poster above me asked, have they been practicing at all? It's hard to go three weeks without practice and then come right back to full effectiveness. But we'll see.

Also, I'm not so sure "easily" is the adverb you want there. I'm not saying we're guaranteed to win, far from it, but just getting these guys back does not mean that ND will be able to "easily" cover Funchess, Norfleet, Chesson, Darboh, et al. Maybe they will cover them perfectly, maybe it will even look easy (both of which I doubt) - but even if both of those are true, I doubt it will be easy. I think ND works pretty hard at their football, same as other D1 programs.