Oklahoma State Primer
I’m just throwing out information that isn’t related to anything, just putting this out there. I am going to the game Friday and I wanted to get to know the Cowboys, so I figured while I did so I would just type it up and share. The good analysis will come from the professionals on this blog. This is just information.
Oklahoma State you say? Let’s meet the guys with the most minutes played –
G Phil Forte III, 5’ 11” 195 lbs – 993 minutes played
G Jeffrey Carroll, 6’ 6” 215 lbs – 925 minutes played
G Jawun Evans, 6’ 1” 185 lbs – 898 minutes played
F Leyton Hammonds, 6’ 8” 215 lbs – 716 minutes played
F Mitchell Solomon, 6’ 9” 245 lbs – 630 minutes played
And then let’s look at some other guys on their roster with more than 300 minutes played –
F Cameron McGriff, 6’ 7” 210 lbs – 498 minutes played
G Brandon Averette, 5’ 11” 175 lbs – 482 minutes played
G Lindy Waters III, 6’ 6” 200 lbs – 360 minutes played
G Davon Dillard, 6’ 5” 215 lbs – 305 minutes played
So there is most likely the entirety of the people you will see. Of these guys, the scoring takes place as follows (compared to Michigan) –
Juwan Evans, 19 PPG – Derrick Walton, 15.2 PPG
Jeffrey Carroll, 17.4 PPG – Zak Irvin, 12.8 PPG
Phil Forte III, 13.3 PPG – Moritz Wagner, 12.0 PPG
Leyton Hammonds, 8.0 PPG – DJ Wilson, 10.6 PPG
Lindy Waters III, 5.8 PPG – MAAR, 9.1 PPG
The remainder of scoring takes place at an average of around 5 PPG or less, so I stopped listing after Waters. The depth of scoring seems to be advantage Michigan.
There are few other things that interest me about Oklahoma State and one is their 3 PT shooting. Michigan is shooting 38% from 3PT range and Oklahoma State is shooting 40% from 3PT range. Their best shooters from beyond the arc are (compared to Michigan) –
Phil Forte III, 42% on 200 attempts – Derrick Walton, 41% on 211 attempts
Jeffrey Carroll, 43% on 129 attempts – Duncan Robinson, 43% on 140 attempts
Leyton Hammonds – 34% on 105 attempts – Zak Irvin, 33% on 144 attempts
Juwan Evans – 38% on 92 attempts – Moritz Wagner, 41% on 108 attempts
3PT shooting will be a crap shoot it seems. They have the players to keep up with us - it will just come down to whoever is hitting shots on Friday.
Moving on to another stat that interests me – their ability to get offensive rebounds. Of the 438 offensive rebounds they have collected on the year, almost 1/4 of them belong to one player. For what it’s worth, Michigan had 260 offensive rebounds this season. Here are the best offensive rebounders (compared to Michigan) –
Mitchell Solomon, 97 OREB – DJ Wilson, 55 OREB
Jeffrey Carroll, 64 OREB – Moritz Wagner, 48 OREB
Leyton Hammonds, 42 OREB – Mark Donnal, 35 OREB
Cameron Griff, 37 OREB – MAAR, 26 OREB
BOX OUT ALL THE SOLOMONS!
If Michigan can keep Oklahoma State off the offensive glass, the defensive rebounding looks to be advantage Michigan. Here are the best DREB players for Oklahoma State (compared to Michigan) –
Jeffrey Carroll, 148 DEFR – Derrick Walton, 150 DEFR
Leyton Hammonds, 113 DEFR – Zak Irvin, 138 DEFR
Jawun Evans, 79 DEFR – DJ Wilson, 135 DEFR
Mitchell Solomon, 70 DEFR – Moritz Wagner, 99 DEFR
I am anxiously awaiting the preview for this game, so forgive me if there isn’t much depth to what I wrote. Just wanted to get familiar with the Oklahoma State roster prior to Friday. Go Blue!
I had a dream last night that Mark Donnal played a crucial role in this game. I can totally see OSU not bothering to gameplan for him. Their guards' dribble-drive penetration scares me since we seem unable to stop this (Minnesota ate us up with this). Still, I think we move on. OSU's record against top teams is not good, but they keep it close. What does Kenpom say?
on kenpom.com. It's a tough matchup, not just because they're good, but yes, their style is one we struggle with. Could just be a high scoring, back and forth affair.
There will be a LOT of frustration as their guards will carve us up and they'll get a bunch of OREBs as we help onto guards. Gonna have to keep up on the other end.
March 14th, 2017 at 11:07 AM ^
Yes, he has 119 fouls in 630 minutes, so 5.7 fouls per 30 minutes. Hopefully we can go right at him with Moe early and get him out. That would go a long way towards controlling the boards and keeping them in check on offense.
change!
We should be getting a lot of 2 on 1 fast break opportunities. It is really just a numbers game on the offensive boards. Pick your poison.
We only get 2 on 1 fast breaks if we get the rebounds. That has not been our strongsuit this season. Walton seems to be our best rebounder which negates our transitions.
Could be wrong, but pretty sure it is the opposite. Walton rebounding eliminates need for outlet pass and actualyl speeds up the transition game, making it more effective.
March 14th, 2017 at 11:07 AM ^
Here are the fast break points from the Big Ten Tourney:
Mich 12 Illinois 0
Mich 2 Purdue 4
Mich 6 Minnesota 2
Mich 8 Wisconsin 2
My takeaway, Michigan does not get a ton of points on fast breaks, but they prevent other teams from doing so even better.
So a guard grabbing a rebound, collecting himself (regaining balance, looking around, positioning the ball to dribble), and then starting to run is all quicker than grabbing a rebound, and looking to throw the ball at someone else downcourt?
There is a scene in an episode of The White Shadow that I've never forgotten. A ball hog grabbed a rebound and raced downcourt in practice. Coach stopped the play, went ballistic about ego, and challenged the kid to a race dribbling downcourt. Kid gleefully took it... When the asst coach blew his whistle to start the race, the kid took off like a blur. Coach threw the ball. As the ball bounced off the far wall, the kid was barely at the top of the free throw circle. Point made...
I remember that short lived show. I'm old. Dammit.
I mean... when you say it like that.... But in reality that isnt how it happens. Walton does not rebound like a big. As a big who played very compettive HS ball, a big grabs a rebond, orients, lands, etc. Then thinking about the fast break and executing that pass/set-up well is very difficult and your first instinct is a short pass to a ball handler. Walton, and rebounding PGs in general, dont do that. They immediately look up the court. Beilein runs a system in which the big's primary job is to clear out other other big which then allows walton a lot of unimpeded rebounds and thus he can take off and immediately distribute or use his speed to get up the court faster than the opponent can transition.
So if all things were equal and guards and bigs rebounded teh same way then I would agree. But in reality it doesnt work like that.
They shoot well and crash the offensive boards. And don't play defense.
We shoot well and avoid the offensive boards to avoid transition buckets. And now play defense.
Of course if one of those 2 teams doesn't have a good shooting night the rest is moot. But that seems to summarize.
According to Kenpom when I glanced Sunday they had the 2nd worst defense of the 68 teams invited (along with best adjusted offense). They are Indiana in football from 2 years ago.
March 14th, 2017 at 10:21 AM ^
we will shoot fine. It is something that has not really been discussed that much, but I really like Michigan's experience in Banker's Life Fieldhouse. Walton and Irvin played 3 games there as a freshman in the BTT and the whole team played 3 games there last year and it was the sight of their best moment as a team from that entire season. Good vibes, familiar surroundings. I think it will actually play into this game. I think Michigan will play very loose and aggressive.
So they want a shoot out with Michigan in Indy, huh? That is the road they want to go down.
OK - see you Friday.
but where did we rank on the defense stats of all 68 teams in the tourney? Just looking for a comparison.
26 Tourney teams have a worse defense than Michigan (according to KenPom).
Of those, 8 are 11 seed or better. So most of the worse defenses come from Auto-Qualify small conference teams.
What if you just look at our defensive numbers over the last 12 games?
March 14th, 2017 at 11:26 AM ^
Just using the dates Brian supplied from the post yesterday:
http://barttorvik.com/trankslice.php?sort=AdjDE&begin=20170112&end=2017…
Our Defense moves up to 41st overall. About 10 teams in front of M didn't make the tourney, so that'd be about the 31st best defense in the tourney, counting games from Jan. 12.
March 14th, 2017 at 11:28 AM ^
17th among tourney teams if you filter from Feb. 6 to end of season (last 12 games).
the last time they played a team from our state.
March 14th, 2017 at 11:12 AM ^
I live in the Oklahoma area and I get their sports radio (which for the most part is surprisingly good). Based on what I have listend to, many of their fans and interviewed experts think several things about Ok State.
1.) They think Oklahoma State could make a significant tournament run, including a possible upset of Louisville.
2.) They are pissed off at the seeding, just like everyone in the nation outside of East Lansing and Creighton
3.) Oklahoma State's offense is as good as people make it out to be, and it all revolves around their point guard.
4.) As far as the matchup against Michigan, they think they matchup really well. One expert thought that the matchup was favorable to Oklahoma State because Michigan is a "small ball offense" which plays into OSU's favor. Umm, ok.
5.) They think the way to beat OSU is through good post play. I don't think they read that article that said Wagner and Wilson were NBA caliber forwards.
The first point, well, hopefully we'll have something to say about that. But they are underseeded, they have a great offense, they could make some noise. Louisville is getting a tough matchup either way.
Points 2 goes without saying.
Point 3 - yeah they're good and he is really good. He's like Nate Mason but a better finisher and better passer with better shooters to pass to. Or like a shorter, quicker Darius Morris with a better outside shot.
On points 4 and 5, we are a perimeter oriented offense so we aren't going to even go to the post much. We rarely do, even when switches create mismatches. You saw what Purdue did to Wagner when they swtiched Vince Edwards onto him. Rendered him mostly ineffective after the first half of the first game.
They're a bad defensive team, but stylistically, we won't take much advantage of their two biggest defensive weaknesses: post defense and fouling.
We will have a very hard time stopping them too though. Our guards are not good on-ball defenders so Evans is going to kill us. He's going to score, or dish to their very good three point shooters and even when he misses, he'll draw a help defender and open up the offensive boards. The asbolute worst matchups for us are teams with quick penetrating guards and athletic rebounders. I think we're going to see a lot of our small ball lineup with Duncan in for Wagner and DJ at center.
If OSU (not that OSU) hits the offensive boards hard, low turnover Michigan will push it hard for some easy hoops. If they can do that and draw fouls, I think that will be the difference (along with Walton's continued dominance).
I would love for someone to cut the RPI and KenPom stats in half so we could see where UM placed in the second half only. Throw out the first half, and I bet this team is top 10 in everything. Well, except rebounding.
Read Brian's post from yesterday. Ok State is up there too with that cut of data.
don't sell yourself short, Judge...
You're a terrific slouch!
From some opinions on here, apparently OK State is the best team in the tournament.
Yeah, they have a fantastic offense, but there's a reason they are a 10 seed. They can't guard anyone. A good defense wins 99 out of 100 times.
Michigan's offense is good enough to come close to matching their output, but plays a MUCH higher level of defense.
This is exactly what I'm getting from their team. We should be able to do whatever we want to on offense against them. And our defense actually...exists. I like the matchup personally. But we will need to keep them off the offensive boards. They're not very efficient scorers and get a lot of their offense on 2nd chance points.
March 14th, 2017 at 10:16 AM ^
Gonna hazard a guess that there is a strong positive correlation between their propensity to shoot the 3-ball and the offensive rebounding numbers. It's a lot harder to hit the offensive glass when you're taking short 2s, but long 3s tend to create long rebounds which benefits offensive rebounding (if the offense sends the 4 non-shooting players to the glass). The flip side of that is that hitting the offensive glass hard can create easy transition buckets for the other team. Hopefully we can rebound well off missed 3s and get some layups.
March 14th, 2017 at 10:35 AM ^
March 14th, 2017 at 10:45 AM ^
think we rebounded fairly well in the BTT against some pretty good rebounding teams. If Wagner and Wilson can stay out of foul trouble, I don't see it as a major problem. Our guards are also both capable and aware rebounders. It will be a matter of effort and focus on the glass. Ok. St. is not particularly big. I think we should be fine on the glass. Also, if they fly toward the glass we will kill them in transition.
March 14th, 2017 at 11:13 AM ^
Agree on transition offense. Also UM needs to make sure they get back for transition D; OSU is a faced paced team and will really push tempo. But I don't know; perimeter defense has improved, but Minnesota is also kind of a drive into the lane type of team and that has given UM trouble the last two times we played them. And also NW to a certain extent; Macintosh made a bunch of those floaters driving the lane if I recall correctly (to lazy to look up the stats).
Minnesota. 15 OREBS to 3! We allowed OREBs on 42 percent of Minn misses, which is very bad. And it was all set up by Nate Mason burning our guards, which forces our bigs to help which opens up their bigs to clean up misses. They did the same thing, even worse, at their place so it wasn't just fatigue.
Ok St is the exact same offense except they have good shooters standing around in case you try to help on the PG or help rebound from the perimeter. They're a tough matchup because we don't have guards that are good on-ball defenders. It's pick your poison.
We certainly will get transition opportunities out of their style. We will score. But man, they will too.
they're a ten is the committee doesn't actually consider the quality of a team. They're underseeded. This is a tossup on paper and fairly unfortunate matchup stylistically.
See above...
My girlfriend went to Oklahoma State and she doesn't think they have much of a chance. But that's probably because I've forced her to watch more Michigan games in the last week than she has ever seen of OK State.
there's a reason they are a 10.
Yep.
March 14th, 2017 at 10:10 AM ^
Our perimeter defense has really improved over the last half of the season. You are not going to get a lot of easy open looks from three.
I am worried about Minny's ability to just drive it straight to the rim every possession with quick little guys. That caught us flat-footed. We seemed unprepared for that. Hopefully they can work on that this week.
If we can play just a little bit of defense they way we have been, we'll score enough to stay well ahead of them.
March 14th, 2017 at 11:15 AM ^
is often the way they are officiated. And because in every tournament game, for the most part, the three guys in stripes never work together, what often happens is that you get one guy who is working a different advantage-disadvatage standard on block-charge and other types of contat than his crew mates. That can lead to early fou trouble and short minutes for anyone but especially the big guys especially in rebounding and blockout situations.
March 14th, 2017 at 11:22 AM ^
Handle them. I think in the end, it won't be very close.
GO BLUE!!