NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round Details and Early Picks

Submitted by XM - Mt 1822 on January 16th, 2024 at 7:12 AM

Mates,
Who would've thought we would actually care what the Lions would be doing in....January, but here it is.  With Tampa Bay beating Philly last night, we get the Bucs at Ford Field on Sunday, game time 3:00.  Credit to Baker Mayfield, he played very well last night and has done a good job this year.  But....Tampa can't run the ball.  We'll see if that holds true on Sunday but I like our chances.  We are 6 pt favorites.  Anyway, quick and early game line-ups are these, with the home team the favorite in every game:

Saturday

Ravens       9      Houston

SF Niners   10    Green Bay  (G-Bay is hot right now...)

Sunday

Detroit          6      Tampa Bay

Buffalo         3       Chiefs   

As noted, the Pack has shown some real signs of life.  As good as SF has been, they have also proved to be human.  Probably healthy now though, with a week off, so Green Bay will have their work cut out for them. 

1.  Lions game in particular, what is/are your predictions/thoughts/pick?

2.  The rest of the games, who survives and advances?  All chalk, the favorites?  NFL less upset prone, right? 

Forward down the field, 

XM 

mi93

January 16th, 2024 at 9:48 AM ^

The Lions game (and run) was (is) eerily reminiscent of M's -- played great at times, tight at times, had big expectations but a mental hurdle (first playoff win / first CFP win).  And I expect the similarities to continue -- Lions will play looser and handle TB with ease.

pinkfloyd2000

January 16th, 2024 at 9:54 AM ^

The Eagles choking was the easiest thing in the world to predict. Just look at the “December to remember” they had, and the continued collapse was easy to see. 

That said? From the perspective of the Detroit Lions, I am rather glad it’s the Bucs and not Philly. 

Let’s get this done, Detroit! 

Midukman

January 16th, 2024 at 10:13 AM ^

I could give two shits about the nfl, used to care. I do watch the playoffs and root for the lions, even through every play resulting in a flag being thrown no matter the game. If the lions can’t win it all and the state of Michigan owning football, then let the Ravens win and the Harbaughs own football. 

WestQuad

January 16th, 2024 at 10:22 AM ^

I'm from Michigan and live in Buffalo, so my rooting interests are predetermined.

  • Detroit over Tampa
  • Buffalo over KC
  • Jim Harbaugh's former team over GB
  • Jim Harbaugh's brother over Houston.

 

My loyalties won't really be that tested in the AFC and NFC championships:

  • Buffalo over Jim Harbaugh's brother
  • Detroit over Jim Harbaugh's former team

Superbowl

Buffalo vs. Detroit....     I'll cross that bridge when I come to it.

funkywolve

January 16th, 2024 at 10:29 AM ^

It's rare that the favorites, at least by seed, win every round.  Over the last 5 years by seed,

22/23:  

Divisional matchups - 3 vs 2, 4 vs 1; 5 vs 2, 6 vs 1.

Conference finals - 3 vs 1, 2 vs 1

Super Bowl - 1 vs 1

21/22

Divisional match ups - 6 vs 1, 4 vs 2; 4 vs 1, 3 vs 2

Conference finals - 6 vs 4, 4 vs 2

Super Bowl - 4 vs 4

20/21

Divisional matchups- 5 vs 2, 6 vs 1; 5 vs 2, 6 vs 1

Conference finals - 2 vs 1, 5 vs 1

Super bowl - 5 vs 1 (5 won)

19/20

Divisional matchups - 5 vs 2, 6 vs 1; 6 vs 1, 4 vs 2

Conference finals - 2 vs 1, 6 vs 2

Super Bowl - 1 vs 2 (2 won)

18/19

Divisional matchups - 5 vs 2, 6 vs 1; 4 vs 2, 6 vs 1

Conference finals - 1 vs 2, 1 vs 2

Super Bowl - 2 vs 2

GRBluefan

January 16th, 2024 at 10:45 AM ^

i think Detroit will beat the Bucs, though that passing game makes me nervous.  And I think GB has a great chance at pulling off another upset and taking out the Niners.  That would set up the Lions to get some Thanksgiving revenge! 

I don't think that there is much of a chance of the Lions beating SF on the road, so big GB fan this weekend! 

Hotel Putingrad

January 16th, 2024 at 10:53 AM ^

I think Ben Johnson will be better prepared for Tampa's blitzball. Though we really seem to struggle in third quarters lately. If we grind clock with Gibbs and and Montgomery, we should win comfortably. I'll say 28-20 Lions.

I like Houston to upset Baltimore, SF to crush Green Bay, and the Bills to top the Chiefs in overtime in an all-time classic.

A Bills-Lions Super Bowl would be neat-o (though Allen would destroy us with his legs).

 

Michfan777

January 16th, 2024 at 2:21 PM ^

Tampa Bay @ Detroit: Detroit 23-21

  • I think Detroit is in for a world of pain vs Tampa, but they should still pull through. This game is the closest to a toss-up this weekend outside of the Chiefs game.
  • Detroit has to face Godwin and Mike Evans with what might be the saddest secondary to make the playoffs in a hot minute. Mayfield is also quite "on" at the moment, but he can be a bit bi-polar. Tampa also has a fairly good defense with a lot of speed - which could cause some problems as well.
  • this game goes largely the same as the game vs the Rams, where everyone is waiting for the Lions to blow it...until they don't.

Green Bay @ San Francisco: San Francisco 38-17

  • Love is a legit future star QB in the league, and of course Green Bay goes from HOFer QB to HOFer QB to another great QB.
  • That said, he is a rookie in the playoffs vs a very good defense thats also paired with an incredibly good offense.
  • I think SF races out to a sizable 14-17 point lead, and forces GB to stall out enough by making them one-dimensional. This game is over by halftime, but GB makes the score look more respectable in the 2nd half.

Houston @ Baltimore: Baltimore 26-10

  • Stroud is a great QB in the making, but playing that defense in Baltimore might be a bit too bright for him.
  • I suspect Nico Collins is kept in check, forcing Stroud into some questionable throws and/or just making him process a bit more than he wants.
  • Baltimore capitalizes on some stalled drives and turnovers and never looks back as Lamar Jackson and the offense get just enough done to keep the game out of reach.

Kansas City @ Buffalo: Buffalo 27-23

  • Mahomes falls just short of beating Buffalo, despite the refs giving a handjob to him on at least 1-2 drives. Kelce is largely shut down (by his standards) after a drive at some point where Mahomes goes to him a ton.
  • Both QBs have at least 2 turnovers, but use their legs to get at least 50 yards each and sustain a few drives.
  • With their head coach's job on the line, Josh Allen and the rest of the offense produce just enough to win this game in what I think will be an ugly back and forth affair.

 

Heart The Rest Of The Way:

  • Detroit plays Green Bay (who upsets SF this next weekend) in the NFC Championship...and wins.
  • Bills somehow upset the Ravens and go to the super bowl in the Rust Belt showdown of the century.
  • Detroit - despite getting their secondary eaten alive - manages to pull off the Super Bowl victory.
  • State of Michigan becomes center of football world in 2024.

Ernis

January 16th, 2024 at 2:29 PM ^

If Detroit loses, I’m going to blame it on playing in a dome. Dragging those soft as baby poo Florida teams up to play in the frigid cold is a major advantage - at least as much as the southerners enjoy playing against hardened north men in their fetid swamps. You could see it when the Chiefs beat the Dolphins. Those poor porpoise players were palpably in pain with every hit, every snap. It was a pure delight to behold and makes me wish Detroit could enjoy a similar advantage coming up.

I expect we’ll take care of the Bucs anyway, but it would be more fun to do it outside. Just my epinion.

Michfan777

January 16th, 2024 at 2:40 PM ^

Me:

Hey ChatGPT, up the alliteration on this post by 10x

 

ChatGPT:

If Detroit drops, I'll dub it the dome's doing. Drawing delicate, dewy Florida foes up to face the frosty field is a formidable advantage—almost as advantageous as the Southern squad's satisfaction squaring off against steeled northern gents in their stagnant swamps. The Chiefs' conquest of the Dolphins clearly showcased the porpoise players in palpable pain with each powerful hit, each snap. It was a pleasure to witness, wishing Detroit could relish a related advantage.

I anticipate handling the Bucs regardless, but it'd be merrier to manage outdoors. Merely my musings.

Darker Blue

January 16th, 2024 at 4:55 PM ^

We should be playing in the NFC championship game next week.

As far as the rest of the games go,

I believe that the Packers are hot enough to beat San Francisco. Im not sure they will but they absolutely can.

I believe Josh Allen will finally beat Mahomes in the playoffs.

I also expect Baltimore to truck the Texans.