ND 6 point favorite over MSU (now 6 !!!!!)

Wow, how is that possible? Although I think ND will destroy MSU this weekend, all they have to do is hold on to the ball.

That's where the money is at. 

That said, I think you get the win this week, Irish. 

In defense of ND, thier offense seems really potent, they just need to stop turning it over. I think the regression to the mean says they will not have another 5 turnovers this game. If so they may well beat MSU. I think that is the betting expectation.

Vegas has gone full retard

I don't see how this is possible? MSU a 5 point favorite seems more right and even that I would have been surprised at. With that said, this could very easily be a trap game for MSU, which was exactly how I felt for our game as well. (and it almost was) I really hope ND wins this week, but I have no Idea how the line is where it is.

unfortunately.

I can see it.  ND is a good team that has simply been very mistake-prone.  Now, it could be that that's just how they are - a sloppy team - but I've got to figure that they're not going to keep on turning it over 5 times a game. 

I always thought that Vegas would give the home team 3 or 4 points right off the bat. MSU has beaten two teams this year that will each have 3 wins by the end of the year.

So, I think the line moves to 3.5 or 4 by game time.

They've had some good close games lately. MSU is pretty solid but after their performance against Alabama last season I wonder if they can match up against a big ND team. They'll have to get in Rees' face all day to win.

of how much money a person would have made betting $500 against ND in every game over the last 5 years or so.  It seems like they are consistently overrated by Vegas (delusional fans with money?).

Makes sense to me.  MSU played a bad DII team and a pseudo D-I team in their first two games.  They now head out of state (which they didn't do until November last year) to play a desperate ND team.  While MSU has had ND's number over the years, ND is now battle tested and MSU might be thinking they're better than they are.

Hard to root for anyone in this game though.  

is going to be 0-3.  MSU has the best D they will face to date. Cousins has another year of experience.  I don't know what I'm hoping for ND to be 0-3 or for MSU to lose....either one is intriguing.

I still have no idea how good either of these teams are.  MSU has played no one, while Notre Dame has played teams that are pretty big question marks in their own conferences.  I was pretty impressed by Notre Dame's line and linebackers; didn't MSU lose quite a bit of their offensive line?  Maybe that's where this is coming from.

I would actually bet this spread. ND is going to win by at least a TD this weekend. 

Gary Gray will have it figured out by then. All he needs to do is turn around and he will have 95% of his issues figured out. 

I don't know.  MSU has won 10 of the last 14 meetings with ND.  Ever since 97, that's almost always been their best effort of the season.  And that's included many crappy MSU teams during that time period. 

I almost always like Sparty's chances in this game these days.  Not that I'm rooting for either team.

I'm sure that there is someone that knows more about how lines are set that can enlighten all of us because this doesn't seem to make a ton of sense from a football perspective.

That being said, I'm not sure how anyone can say how good MSU is at this point.   They weren't impressive at all in their game against Youngstown St.   They played better against Florida Atlantic-- but FAU isn't good either.   This is their first real game against decent competition.

On the other hand, ND is 0-2, but they've definitely played much better competition than State has and had one of their losses on the road.   Also, ND could have won either or both games.    And this week's game is at ND.

So, while I'm surprised that ND is favored and am guessing that's more about moving money than who they think is going to win, I think that this game is anything close to a done deal for MSU.

they'd be 2-0 instead of 0-2.  That's the biggest reason why they're the favorite against MSU even though MSU is ranked while they're not.

Perhaps Kelly has announced that he is benching Gary Gray...

The people that set the betting lines and the people who vote in the polls need to get introduced to each other sometime.  The #15 team in the country is a 5 point underdog to a team that isn't even showing up in "other recieving votes"?

Granted I think State is overrated, and I understand that a betting line is not a prediction.  Still.

high.  Having said that, I fully expect ND to win this game.  They have had 10 turnovers in 2 close losses, they are at home and I doubt that they have forgotten how MSU beat them last year.  Not to mention, IMHO, MSU is way over rated again this year.

I'd be inclined to take Sparty, I figured the spread would be maybe ND by 2. That said, it wouldn't surprise me if ND trucked any of its remaining opponents. The OL is strong except at power running, they have a good pair of backs, Floyd of course is a beast, and Rees can be effective when he isn't imploding. Defensively the front 7 is strong, but the secondary needs to quit losing track of receivers and losing track of the ball.

MSU will probably make fewer mistakes, but I don't like their chances if their shaky OL gets owned by the Irish DL. 

MSU will probably lose.

Then again I look at the ND schedule right now and I'm thinking Notre Dame could go winless the way they've been performing.

If they did, Phil Steel'es credibility would be utterly destroyed (he predicted a 12-0 season for ND).

ND clearly is a talented team. If they'd stop shooting themselves in the foot all the time, they should be able to win games.  They also have played to decent to good opponents while MSU has played two soup cans, and looked a little rough during one of those games.

I don't agree with it, but I get it.

Football, as we all know, is a game of emotion.  Saturday night's loss has to take some air out of ND's balloon.  If ND comes back and does some serious butt kicking next Saturday, it will tell you a lot about Kelly's ability to motivate his players.

The pollsters might overrate Sparty, but gamblers don't.  

What if it turns out that both USF and Michigan have really good teams this year?  I'm not convinced that ND is as bad as an 0-2 start would indicate.  If ND loses to Sparty, then I will revisit my estimation of ND's competence this year.

I hope ND beats Sparty by at least 20.

I tried to post and got a gateway 503 message.  Apparently, messages do get through even when you get a gateway screen.

I'd pick ND in this one. They're at home. They're mad. They have equal or better talent than MSU. And, more to the point, MSU is a pretty bad road team. If I were Sparty, I'd be worried right now -- ND will be fighting for its life. Point-spread notwithstanding, ND will see itself as the underdog. And ND plays better in that position; Sparty plays poorly as the overdog.

As has been said a million times, ND is probably a more talented team than Sparty (and us for that matter) but they have made mind boggling mistakes. It is impossible for them to continue making 5 turnovers per game, I think they will beat Sparty.

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see ND win. They've proven that they are an offensive machine as far as yardage goes, its just a matter of eliminating those turnovers and turning them into points. Plus, their strong D line and MSU's shaky O Line is a favorable matchup. Although at the same time Cousins could shred ND's secondary. Either way it should be a good game.

I'm also predicting an ND win here. If ND had hung on to win in Ann Arbor, I would've predicted an MSU win. ND will be desperate, at home, and they have a week to figure out how to hold on to a football. Plus I think Michael Floyd will be eating some babies on Saturday.

Irish -- I must ask you....no way being snarky.

What stung more? The Little Giants fake FG or the 80 yard pass to Gallon where the ND defenders proceeded to play 2-hand touch?

Irish - your team is way more talented than its results so far show.

M had no business even being in that game talent wise - a real credit to M's coaching staff and players.

When ND puts together a mostly mistake free game, watch out.  The problem is that I think Kelly kind of loses his shit, and his team does too.  But once they calm down for 60 minutes, they'll be a force.  Holtz's predictions are a little out there, but not as out there as most believe.

This weekend has me pretty worried. 

ND could come out and clean up their act and not turn the ball over, thus resulting in lots of points for ND.

ND could be the same old ND and have turnovers and thus not go buck wild.

MSU could show that their suspect O-line can't handle going up against actual talent in a opposing D's front 7 and therefore their offense could be shut down.

Or MSU could just say screw the run game and attack the DBs and score a bunch of points, as they have a good set of WRs and a good QB.

ND could be pumped up with their back firmly against the wall and prove something.

ND could be Michigan in the Oregon game.

So in conclusions, it could be a shootout, blowout, or a low scoring game.  The variance is much higher on this game, so don't bet on it.