Mid Season Reality vs. Expectations
I was looking back at some pre-season pontification to try to remember what people were saying about this team and I started to compare my own expectations vs how it has played out. I am going to list a few things that surprised me and I am curious about yours as well. I doesn’t have to be win/loss, it could be player, coaches, etc.
Chris Evans - I thought it would be a 1 &1a situation, but it’s clear that Higdon is the man and the coaching staff trusts him exponentially more than the other backs. That fumble against MSU wasn’t great.
Gentry - I expected a step forward, but I think he’s actually exceeded my expectations. He’s a legit receiving threat and his blocking has greatly improved
K. Hudson - I am guessing it’s more our own scheme changes coupled with opponents game planning for him, but I’m surprised his stats didn’t pick up where they left off last year
D. Bush - I knew he would be good, but he’s venturing into “best LB I’ve ever watched in person” territory
Metellus - After the Ohio State dropped interception, I was hoping he would be passed on the depth chart and we’d see a new face this year. Now, he’s one of my favorite players and probably the 3rd best defensive player.
J. Hudson - umm...yea...not how I saw that playing out
Warrrinnner - Maybe I’m overstating it, but I can’t remember a single non-head-coach-or-coordinator hire that has made that big of a year over year positive impact. I love his production and his personality.
Lastly, since I really would rather read y’alls thoughts, I’ll only add one more:
Will Freaking Hart. My biggest question mark going into the season was “WTF are we going to do with our punting situation since Robbins and Hart were abysmal last year”. Turns out, Hart is now an animal and it’s Nordin I’m most concerned with.
anyway, what say you folks?
October 30th, 2018 at 8:14 PM ^
Honestly I was thinking we can win every game not named Ohio state and maybe I was thinking penn state too at the time.
I was just super confident in our defense keeping us in every game, but the 2 I named up there. Kinda figured if there was an offense that could throw some points on us it’s them
October 30th, 2018 at 8:30 PM ^
I believe we are watching two different Gentrys when it comes to blocking. He looks awful on blocks to me.
October 31st, 2018 at 8:30 AM ^
He certainly needs to lower his center of gravity...this isn't HS.
October 31st, 2018 at 6:53 PM ^
For a guy that played QB and never had to hit anybody in his life I think he's made remarkable strides.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:42 PM ^
I expected 6-0 going into the 3 game gauntlet and thought they should win atleast 2/3 and be 10-1 going osu, this is a good team very highly recruited players 2016/2017 big classes, talent was there just needed a qb and some coaching and it’s coming together now.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:46 PM ^
12-0 Preseason homer prediction
7-5 Post-ND prediction. I told MSU "friends" that our season hinged on having two tackles and during the ND we didn't have any tackles.
Now? I think the season is still dependent on JBB and Runyan. MSU was a tough run defense, but according to the write up didn't have much of a pass rush. No one has had a pass rush against us, but according to the write ups we haven't really faced one.
JBB and Runyan versus Penn State and OSU (and Maryland?) will be the true test.
Our defense seems like an all-time elite defense. Can't wait to see what Don Brown has in store for PSU.
I'm currently optimistic about OSU. If we can block and run on them to help our D, our D will give them some headaches.
[deleted a bunch of awestruck stuff about everybody else]
Shea looks like his is getting comfortable. I expected him to be great and he is good. His running is fantastic and you can tell that he'll be great. I'm hoping that with Black back that Shea lights up Black/DPJ/Collins/Gentry/Perry/McKeon/Eubanks/Martin. We have so many weapons that if our tackles really can block we should be destroying people.
11-1
14-1
October 30th, 2018 at 11:02 PM ^
Giving OSU "some headaches"...
...I see what you did there!
October 30th, 2018 at 8:55 PM ^
Not to take this down a negative path, but...
Gary- I haz a sad. ☹️
Nordin- ?????
On the positive,
Pep- I expected futility, but I think he's been at very least competent
McElwain- not nearly as weird an addition as I had first thought and I think has been positive
October 30th, 2018 at 9:49 PM ^
Warriner has been a game changer for us. It has also allowed Shea to be a game manager. I am excited about where this team is at.
October 30th, 2018 at 10:00 PM ^
My two cents on this post...I think Gentry has been targeted less frequently than early in the season. And I have no facts to back this up but I don't see the improvement in blocking. At least one time against MSU he got completely run over. And that is unacceptable when the smaller Higdon was making blocks against the same guys. Seems like blocking is a "want to" thing and it appears Gentry doesn't have that "want to", at least right now anyway.
October 30th, 2018 at 10:15 PM ^
After the ND game, I thought there was no way in hell that Jon Runyan would keep his job. I said multiple times that he was a good kid and probably a really hard worker, but was not up to snuff to play LT in the Big Ten.
Since then, Runyan has made me eat my words. I’m happy to see he proved my ass wrong.
As for the season expectations, I predicted 9-3 was most likely. Now that would be a major disappointment. This team is good enough to win the Big Ten. Good enough to finally slay its demons in Columbus. Coming into the season, I thought we’d need a minor miracle to beat OSU in Columbus. We’ll still have to play our best game of the year to beat them, but now that game looks less daunting than it did eight weeks ago.
I’d say my expectations have been exceeded. Especially on the OL.
October 30th, 2018 at 10:16 PM ^
Before the season I thought we'd be 9-3/8-4, with road losses at ND, OSU, and MSU, and perhaps one more loss to either Wisconsin or PSU. The game at ND didn't surprise me, but I was stupidly wrong on MSU and Wisconsin.
While a loss to PSU is possible if we turn the ball over and shit the bed on ST, there's no reason not to be very optimistic we'll take care of business. I'm not quite at the point where I think a victory in Columbus is likely, but we're in far better shape relative to the Buckeyes than I thought we'd be back in September.
October 30th, 2018 at 10:32 PM ^
The mental toughness and character of this team was on full display during the State game. Very impressed by the leasdership of this team. Seems like they are a unified team.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:16 PM ^
I expected Michigan to win every game at least 50-0. I expected the defense to give up no 1st downs and I expected the offense to score a TD on every possession.
Given my very low expectations...I am pretty disappointed so far.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:32 PM ^
I picked the Lads to go 10-2 and crossed my fingers. I knew multi position groups would have to greatly improve. After ND I figured we could go as low as 8-4. I was on the ledge then the oline started doing well. I expected the late season drop off from them when the schedule toughened. To all of our surprise those big hogs are still getting it done. Congrats oline and keep it rolling.
Bo is looking down at them with a smile thinking of 11/24 and ruining those fuckers season in Columbus.
October 31st, 2018 at 12:06 AM ^
It's pretty much how I thought, except for the W1 loss.
Main deviation is I thought it would be Mayfield and Hudson at OT
I actually thought Gentry would have been doing more by now... if there's a disappointment, it's that we don't see a true PRO passing game opened up yet. Hope it's still coming though.
October 31st, 2018 at 6:52 AM ^
I expected this team to be very good and contend for the B1G title, as the 2016 team did. But admittedly I didn't really think the team would go into Columbus with a good chance to win because of the OTs. I also felt that 2018 would be another "peak year" (also like 2016) and that we'd head into 2019 needing to rebuild the defense.
Now, I feel that M will at least have a 50/50 shot in The Game, if not be favored. Much of that is the improvement on the OL, but OSU not being as strong as expected is part of it as well. Win that game, and M almost certainly goes to the BTCG.
Perhaps more importantly, M has already gotten contributions from numerous young players this season, to the point that it's clear M will be back in contention next season and probably every season for the foreseeable future. I think that's what's impressed me the most. The 2018 team isn't just a final push being made by a cohort of 2-3 year players like 2016 felt like. Rather, it feels like the new norm for a well-constructed program.
October 31st, 2018 at 8:03 AM ^
Right now I just want to beat Penn State. Worry about all the other stuff later.
October 31st, 2018 at 8:27 AM ^
I expected 9-3 with closer to 8-4 than 10-2 due to past inability in away games of which we had 3 tough ones. I was dubious on the O line and an offense that did not require defenses to play 11 v 11 by offering the QB run threat.
However I also sensed that Harbaugh went heavy introspective this off season especially with the parting ways with Drevno, and that good things would hopefully come from it. They have in that the O line is improved (thanks Warriner) and Shea's read option.
I figured we'd go 1-2 in the key away games (ND, MSU, OSU) and 1-1 in the tough home games (UW and Ped State)
So far we're 1-1 in those key away games and 1-0 in the home games so still on course to meet the expectations if we lose to Ped State and OSU. If we win either, then that would have exceeded my expectations.
That said, one of the bigger revelations of this year has been JH getting away from strict pro-style and introducing the read option. This bodes very well for the future especialy with the wheels McCaffrey and Milton have shown. Always felt like we were playing with one arm tied behind our backs against teams like Ohio State that added the QB run threat while our QB's stood like statues in the pocket.
October 31st, 2018 at 8:39 AM ^
I expected Bench Mason to be awesome, and he has been.
I expected Michigan's OTs to be such a brutal liability that we dropped a surprise upset to a team like Northwestern or Indiana. But so far, so good.
I expected Tarik Black and DPJ to really open up the deep passing game, but that has yet to come to fruition (game-breaking MSU catch aside).
I expected Rashan Gary to be burninating the countryside on his way to becoming a top 3 draft pick, but the injury has lingered.
I figured we would lose 2 or 3 of the five big games (ND, Wisconsin, MSU, PSU, and OSU), plus one upset along the way for an 8-4/9-3 record. The defense has been more or less what we all expected. O-line has been the difference.
At this point, the thing I care most about is beating OSU and winning the B1G championship. The Game looms especially large.
October 31st, 2018 at 11:22 AM ^
Every one of our position groups is solid-to-rock solid with the exceptions of kicker and QB/passing game. kicker I definitely did not anticipate becoming an area of concern, so that stands out to me. Regarding QB/kicker, this has more to do with the fact that every other aspect of the team is pretty solid and Shea is still new to this system and these receivers, and none of the receivers really came in as battled-tested veterans aside from Perry. As expected, the passing game has improved over the course of the season but I think it will take a few more games and possibly even until next season for it to really start clicking the way it was in 2016.
Overall, my expectations for the season were about a 7 or 8, but the team as so far delivered a pretty convincing 9. Great job.
October 31st, 2018 at 12:37 PM ^
I expected Shea to have a bit more yards and TDs, but also significantly more interceptions.