Michigan Will Defeat Georgia (and here are the reasons why)
The experts have got this contest all wrong. Let's go over the reasons why Michigan will emerge victorious:
1. Coaching Matters
Let's not pretend that Georgia isn't cooking up some good stuff on both sides of the ball for this game. We know they are and we know they have capable coaches. But Josh Gattis won the Broyles Award for a reason and Mike MacDonald's entire defensive approach is to scheme exotic looks and coverages. Giving them extra time to prepare is almost always an advantage over the opponent.
2. Cade McNamara's Passing Has Been Needed In 1.5 Games...... And He Delivered
I'm not going to sit here and tell you that our starting quarterback has always instilled confidence in his ability to sling the rock around the yard, particularly early in the season. But lost in all of this is the simple fact that McNamara's ability to really pass the ball has only been needed in the second half against Nebraska and the Michigan State game. And there's no question he came through in those instances. We have a young, inexperienced quarterback (two in fact). And our receivers are young as well. Hell, Donovan Edwards might be our best receiving weapon and we just barely started utilizing him. Georgia's secondary had major busts against Alabama. Don't automatically assume Michigan can't throw the ball effectively against this team, even without the aid of an effective running game.
3. Have Fun Dealing With Harbaugh's Endless Array Of Running Plays
Like most of you, the various nuances of run blocking are somewhat lost on me. I can't break down tape well enough to give a unique take on this aspect of the game. But what I can say with confidence is that Harbaugh loves himself some creative play calling in the running game. Yes, Georgia is nearly impossible to run against due to their personnel. But no defense has players so talented and so flawless in their technique as to bypass the need to identify what is being thrown at them and react accordingly.
4. These Aren't Your Grandparents Defensive Tackles And Cornerbacks
Yes, we are all aware that our starting defensive tackles and cornerbacks have improved dramatically over the course of the season. We also may realize in the back of our minds that our players have become much more accustomed to the radical change in defensive scheme. But it's still difficult to comprehend that our defense today is nothing like the defense that gave up 37 points to Michigan State. And part of the reason is because we gave up 27 points to Ohio State. That doesn't feel dominant. But the Buckeyes needed every possible bounce and every ludicrous catch and every lucky 4th down play call to get to those 27 points. Georgia will be facing one of the 5 best defenses in America on Friday, season long advanced metrics be damned.
5. Being An Underdog Can Be An Advantage In The Semifinal Round
Let's be honest. A lot of these semifinal playoff games have been between two teams who are at wildly different levels in terms of talent and ability. Those contests tend to turn out ugly. But there are several examples of favorites coming in cocky and not realizing they aren't actually better than their opponent. The results have sometimes been shocking (Ohio State beating Alabama with their 3rd string quarterback; Clemson beating Ohio State 31-0). If Georgia comes into this game underestimating us at all, they won't get their chance to avenge their loss to Alabama.
These are my 5 reasons Michigan will win on Friday. Feel free to give us your reasons why we will advance to the national title game.
December 29th, 2021 at 2:01 PM ^
6. Special Teams Are Special: In a game that is pretty evenly matched, special teams could play a special part in deciding the outcome. Luckily for Michigan, they have the best Special Teams Coordinator in CFB (following in his Uncle's footsteps).
7. Built In His Image: Two of my favorite Harbaugh sayings are "better today than yesterday, and better tomorrow than today" and "attack each day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind." This team personified both those Harbuaghisms this year. They came out of fall camp a completely different team from 2020, but many were still unconvinced if this team was good enough after solid showings against WMU, Washington, and NIU. As they moved into Q2 of the schedule, we were feeling better after big road wins against Nebraska and Wisconsin, but the MSU, PSU, and OSU games loomed large. Q3 started with a bye week. Although we lost to MSU, the passing game looked completely rejuvenated after the bye week and the team and coaching staff maybe learned their most valuable lesson of the season that fateful Halloween weekend (i.e., losing sucks, don't leave things to chance). Finally Q4. Q4 Michigan was the best Michigan football team since 2000 or maybe even 1997. Not only did our stars show up (Hutch, Ojabo, Dax), but the growth of the role players is the main reason we are here today. Cade, All, Haskins (the role player who turned into a star), Henning, Wilson, CJ, Mazi, Hinton, Ross, Schoon, Turner, Grey, Hawkins, Edwards, the OL, etc. all had evolved into elite big ten players from Q1 to Q4. Now this team has had another "submarine" period with 15 practices over three weeks. I think we will see a team like the 2015 Harbaugh Citrus bowl team emerge instead of the bowl teams of 2016-2019.
8. Diversified running game: The silver lining of Corum's injury was that Haskins elevated to a whole other level and Donovan Edwards emerged as a budding superstar. Now Corum is healthy and this running game will attack you in so many different ways. It's a strength v. strength matchup, but GA has not seen anything near to what Michigan has to offer (Arkansas and Kentucky lol), while Michigan has seem some "GA-lite" defenses in Wisconsin, Iowa, and to a lesser extent, PSU.
9. Pick Your Poison: The silver lining of Bell's injury was that the TEs and WR corps had to figure it out on the fly. While no true superstar emerged, a plethora of targets emerged, each capable of making huge plays when called upon. CJ, Wilson, Sainristil, Henning, Anthony, All, and Schoon have made game planning very hard for defenses. Add in what Edwards, Corum, and even Haskins can do out of the backfield, the GA back seven will have a lot to game plan for.
10. Close Games: Michigan was involved in some nail biters this season, including Rutgers (lol), Nebraska, MSU, PSU, and even OSU at times. Besides MSU, they were able to dig deep and exorcize the demons of season's past, winning close games. GA's only close game was Clemson in week 1. Even that game was comfortable for most of the second half. I'm guessing Friday's matchup will be a close game. I like teams that have been there and done that.
Whether these plus 1-5 by OP are enough remains to be seen. There are plenty of things going against us (e.g., STaRz matter, "SEC speed", cold weather team playing a warm weather game), so it won't be a cake walk. Regardless, I can't wait for Friday. So very proud of this team. Here's to them shocking the world.
Clear Heart, Clear Mind - Go Blue!
December 29th, 2021 at 9:45 PM ^
Great post! Thanks
December 29th, 2021 at 2:07 PM ^
Michigan will win because they are the better team!
December 29th, 2021 at 2:26 PM ^
6. Secret weapon: Jay Harbaugh
I don’t know anything about UGA’s special teams (I see they are #32), but give me Jay Harbaugh with a few weeks to game plan how to exploit weaknesses/tendencies and I’ll take that matchup. Every. Damn. Time.
December 29th, 2021 at 2:40 PM ^
Both teams could win. I could see a multitude of outcomes. I have no idea who will win, but here are some of the reasons that I think Michigan could win.
1) Is Georgia looking ahead? If all they are looking for is the rematch with Alabama, or if they are still not over the beating they took / are still enduring an Alabama hangover, then they're in trouble.
2) Michigan is riding a tidal wave of momentum right now. They slayed their demon and can finally exhale a sigh of relief. One team is yet to slay their demon, and that is why that other team (Alabama) is back in the CFP in the first place. One team came into this game going in one direction. The other team came in going in a different direction. Its not wrong to question if Georgia is in the right state of mind.
3) Hutchinson and Ojabo. I don't know how well coached Georgia's OL is by comparison to OSU's but Hutch and Ojabo went against an OL that is, at a bare minimum, at least as talented as Georgia's and Michigan manhandled OSU's line. Hutch and Ojabo are gamewreckers, and if they can consistently get in Bennett's face, that is huge for the remainder of the night. They are the best DE tandem in America, bar none.
4) All the pressure is on Georgia right now. They are expected to be here, expected to win, and their last time out they got punched in the mouth big time. Michigan of course has pressure to win, but its likely pressure that it puts on itself to win. No one in their right mind expected Michigan to get to this point, so that affords you the opportunity to play a little more loose.
5) Bennett is a good QB, but he's been good when he's been playing with a lead and can operate within how the offense is supposed to operate. When Georgia is down, or needs a score, he's not the guy to bring you back, and he's shown he can make mistakes. Cade has at least shown that if he makes a mistake, he can shrug it off and drive you down the field on the next play.
I know I've mentioned a lot of intangibles, but in a game like this, intangibles matter.
December 29th, 2021 at 2:56 PM ^
December 29th, 2021 at 7:47 PM ^
I think it boils down to your 3). Bennett is not good under pressure and 〽️ is exceptional at applying it. If the good guys can get to 21 — either by screwing with their linebackers, trickeration, our special teams advantage or a defensive score — I don’t think the Dawgs can keep up, especially if they are playing from behind.
December 29th, 2021 at 9:52 PM ^
Great post! The experience in close games and Cade's composure are relevant anecdotes -- not total intangibles. It seemed to me that Michigan learned a lot from their close loss to MSU, and this paid off in the OSU game.
December 29th, 2021 at 3:02 PM ^
Win the game!
That’s all the matters.
〽️Go Blue〽️
December 29th, 2021 at 3:05 PM ^
I can think of 42-27 reasons why being an underdog is an advantage
December 29th, 2021 at 3:29 PM ^
Agree with everything you've said here except this: "our defense today is nothing like the defense that gave up 37 points to Michigan State".
The defensive scheme and the players' execution in that game was just as sound as the rest of the year. The difference, and the only reason for the one loss on the schedule, was MacDonald's staff failing to prepare the players for MSU's hyper-tempo. Substitution/12-men-on-the-field penalties extended several drives and guys just not being ready/properly aligned at the snap on several others was the difference.
December 29th, 2021 at 3:57 PM ^
I'll add that the Georgia schedule is not as intimidating as initially led to be. Georgia beat the first 4 SEC teams to have lost this bowl season: Auburn, Missouri, Florida, and Mississippi State.
Yes, Georgia is good but I think we have a good chance.
December 29th, 2021 at 5:40 PM ^
Michigan is going to win this game.
They (whoever 'they' are) said Michigan could not win the Big Ten. Could not beat OSU. Thought Iowa was a #2 team at one point. Rated Georgia #1 all year. Thought the SEC was the best conference in football. Said Michigan had no chance of being a playoff team.
The pundits were wrong. They aren't experts in this stuff any more than you or I. Sure, they can see if a team's good if it hits them in the nose. For the most part, however they're follow-the-leader guessers like everyone else.
Don't buy into this SEC stuff. Don't buy into Georgia being the better, more talented, team than Michigan. How many #1 draft picks are busts? How many so-called experts can be consistently wrong, year after year (looking at you, Lions)?
If Georgia is all about 5-stars, how did a walk-on wind up starting? Answer: Recruiting ratings are so much bullshit.
The proof is in the game. That's all that matters. Our team has more heart, more moxie, better coaches, and highly skilled players that were underrated, not overrated.
Michigan will win this game.
December 29th, 2021 at 5:55 PM ^
Im just happy to be here and hope everyone has fun
December 29th, 2021 at 5:57 PM ^
We slayed our demon, Georgia did not.
December 29th, 2021 at 7:01 PM ^
I keep saying it, because I have visualized it...35-24 Michigan. Up 28-24 late, the defense aids the final touchdown. We watch the game afterwards and see all the missed opportunities in a game where we were the better team from start to finish.
December 29th, 2021 at 7:06 PM ^
Well shit! I’m sold. Anyone who thinks that Georgia is gonna be a cakewalk needs to be kicked in the junk right before kickoff. I like our chance to, blow them out, or get blown out. Or come down to a last second field goal. This game, at least right now is a coin toss. Unless your an sec fan and we’re basically what a team would be if Arkansas and Kentucky were to form a joint team. Fear level for Georgia is a 2 on a scale to 5.
December 29th, 2021 at 8:12 PM ^
The blueprint to beating Georgia is pretty clear, and Michigan has demonstrated that it is certainly capable of playing that kind of football. We limit their run game and pressure their qb on offense, it's been done several times this year. He has a high turnover rate in games where the run has been shut down. Run tempo to gas their defense, stretch to the outside, and throw over the top with creative play calling. Georgia is a good and talented team, but it has a couple plain weaknesses this year. Michigan is more well rounded, better coached, and has played tougher opponents this year, in my opinion. I don't think we're vastly better than them, but I think we're better enough to dictate the game and win every phase of it through 4 quarters.
December 29th, 2021 at 8:17 PM ^
After getting rolled by Bama in a game many thought would be a coronation for Georgia, I just wonder where this teams head is going to be.
If Michigan can figure out a way to get up early like they did against Iowa, this could get ugly for Georgia.
December 29th, 2021 at 8:23 PM ^
Michigan will win because Stetson Bennett throws INTs when pressured. Guess who brings pressure?
Michigan wins because H2 isnt going to be stopped on every play. He gets yards after contact. Thats gonna hurt after a while!
Michigan wins because UGA lacks edge speed. At least against Bama and some of our fellas are fast.
Michigan will win because theres more than one reason for Vestardis blocking assignments. He's out there because he likes to run behind H2 and use him for a human battering ram. So cool to watch!!
Michigan will win because they will play as a team and as we know its the TEAM THE TEAM THE TEAM
Michigan will win because some of the misdirection, counters, screens wheel routes and a draw will work and Corum is back.
Michigan is going to win because you only think your a 5 star until you get punched in in the nose. All you think about after that is, "Hey you weren't supposed to be able to do that!"
Lastly, Michigan will win because they are a complete team and they aren't going to quit.
December 29th, 2021 at 8:52 PM ^
Because this is the year that red-colored teams do not get to have nice things.
December 29th, 2021 at 10:06 PM ^
Such an evenly matched game is going to come down to which team has greater resilience. Who can be down 10 points or just had a tipped ball picked off and still play with the belief and confidence that “we shall overcome”. This is why I like Michigan this Friday. We have been tested and faced adversity many times this season. Georgia faced it once against Alabama and fell short. Go Blue!!