MICHIGAN v ohio state: What are the Odds?
What are the odds for Michigan winning against both Maryland and OSU, losing one of the two, or losing both games.
Michigan wins both 34.2%. Michigan wins one of the two 59.2%. Michigan loses both 6.7%
What are the odds for OSU winning against both Michigan and MSU, OSU losing to one of the two, or OSU losing both games.
OSU wins both 53.2%. OSU wins one of the two 41.5%. OSU loses both 5.2%.
What are the odds for MSU winning both Ohio Sate and Penn State, MSU losing to one of the two, or MSU losing both games.
MSU wins both 7.7%. MSU wins one of the two 54.5%. MSU loses both 37.8%.
source: ESPN matchup predictor based on current football power index.
Interesting result and takeaways...
- OSU has the best chance to win both - but Michigan has better than 1 out of 3 chance to win both
- MSU has a higher chance of losing both games than Michigan has of winning both remaining games
- MSU has almost no chance to win both, OSU almost no chance to lose both
Of course the chance the refs screw Michigan in the OSU game is the most likely of all scenarios.
November 16th, 2021 at 9:36 AM ^
Is their defense built to stop our offense? Serious question. If we get Corum or Edwards back, they team up with Haskins to power a running attack that OSU does not face on a regular basis.
November 16th, 2021 at 12:19 PM ^
My understanding is that OSU has a very good run defense that has progressed as the year has gone on, but their pass defense has been pretty bad. A basic google search shows that they're hovering around 100-110th in the country, depending on which site you go to. And outside of Penn State and Oregon, I don't think they've faced very many good passing attacks this year to justify that low of a ranking. Especially not with the talent they bring in.
My guess is that Corum and Haskins will get some yards and chunk plays here and there but they won't be the deciding factor in Michigan winning or losing the game. That is all going to fall on Cade and the receivers. That is where Michigan is going to have to make hay, because OSU is vulnerable in the back end.
November 16th, 2021 at 2:34 PM ^
I'll be surprised if Corum plays.
November 16th, 2021 at 10:41 AM ^
+4 turnover margin solves many problems.
November 16th, 2021 at 11:28 AM ^
The best way to beat the number one offense in the country is to keep that offense off the field.
November 16th, 2021 at 6:26 PM ^
I cant think of a scenario where we beat OSU.
COVID outbreak in the OSU wide receiver room?
November 17th, 2021 at 12:20 AM ^
I’m sorry but I think it’s insane that someone could actually think we can’t beat OSU. For real insane. Tall order? For sure.
No scenario? Wtf.
Football is not a game where the most talent wins. It’s a team sport and we have a shit to of weapons.
I never walked into a competition expecting to lose and some of the fucking bullshit here is embarrassing.
November 16th, 2021 at 6:00 AM ^
ESPN matchup predictor says 59%, ESPNs FPI says 89%… which one is it ESPN?
November 16th, 2021 at 6:33 AM ^
ESPN matchup predictor says OSU has 61.7% chance to beat us and it it is based on the FPI.
November 16th, 2021 at 6:16 AM ^
Beat Maryland
November 16th, 2021 at 6:25 AM ^
Per Massey Ratings, Michigan's projected probabilities in the remaining games (87% at Maryland, 45% versus OSU):
2-0: (0.87)(0.45) = 39.15%
1-1, lose to Maryland: (0.13)(0.45) = 5.85%
1-1, lose to OSU: (0.87)(0.55) = 47.85%
0-2, MGoBlog implodes: (0.13)(0.55) = 7.15%
November 16th, 2021 at 7:29 AM ^
MGoBlog is imploding either way.
That's going to be the most miserable part...no matter if it's good, bad, or close...if you get 4 game thread posts in past the 2nd quarter, you're wiwinning. This place is going to be gridlock.
I suggest you newbies find a real life friend if you want company, because it won't be coming in the form of MGoBlog. Maybe by 5 or 6pm?
November 16th, 2021 at 7:58 AM ^
The M game threads are full of negative sadsacks; at no time does the active IQ at work on this board sink lower than during game time, as even the quickest perusal verifies. Most thoughtful people here do not go near them.
November 16th, 2021 at 8:12 AM ^
When I post during the game threads I take my time and give it some real thought. I make sure emotion is tempered.
It then fits in nicely with the latest comments for a very cohesive read.
Then I begin shopping for Best Buy TV deals to replace the TV I just smashed. Which is awkward because often I’m at the sports bar.
November 16th, 2021 at 9:41 AM ^
Thanks! This caused me to spit out my cereal laughing in a moment when I needed it!
November 16th, 2021 at 6:40 AM ^
Go Blue. Beat Maryland.
November 16th, 2021 at 6:43 AM ^
If OSU plays like they did against Purdue then I don’t know how we win. That gameplan didn’t have Stroud with the ball long enough for our pass rush to get home. If we somehow can blanket their unbelievably quick receiving core, get a few hits on Stroud and the O can put together some long drives that end in 7 points, then anything’s possible. CJ has looked shaky at best when he’s been pressured but, Day has put together game plans against us that have been masterpieces and exploited any weakness we have. McDonald will have his hands full with this one.
November 16th, 2021 at 6:57 AM ^
Very true. Day has been good against us. I hope the defensive scheme change, the improvements in secondary, and the two monsters in DL is enough to slow them down. I am sure he has a plan to avoid or contain our DEs. For once, I am hoping we have a plan for their potential plan and have been working on it for a while. The way we played against Dotson is encouraging. I just hope OSU suddenly does not make their running back go crazy on us.
November 16th, 2021 at 7:56 AM ^
There's one variable that no one is including and it's something our DL has struggled to do until this year. DL is getting their hands up in the air when they're not getting home. If our LBs and DBs play tight in their zones on the interior of the field Stroud will struggle with tipped passes. Getting those hands up and tight zones forces him to wait longer on routes and lets our ends get home. PSU exploited this with holds on the outside and were able to get their guys 10-15 yards downfield on post routes. If refs call the holds early our defense will have a field day. No calls, we may be in pain if the offense doesn't keep up.
November 16th, 2021 at 8:18 AM ^
Our best chance will probably be controlling the pace on offense . If TOP slants heavy in our favor, then I think Michigan has a chance. Need to go on some of those patented 6 or 7 minute drives, and then finish with a touchdown, no stalling out in the red zone and settling for three.
If we get into a shootout with them, then it’s going to be rough, because I agree with most on the board, I don’t think we have the firepower to keep up.
November 16th, 2021 at 11:33 AM ^
They can run the ball too though. Treveyon Henderson is probably the most dynamic back in the B1G as a true freshman
November 16th, 2021 at 6:46 AM ^
Gotta love the faux statistics of probable wins. Impossible to empirically test unless we can somehow access the multiverse. These are completely based on previous games, but can't accurately take into account how the two teams will actually match up against each other, since they haven't played yet. Statistics are incredible powerful, but when applied to things like this, they're comical and faux science. There's a reason for the ageless expression "that's why they play the game".
November 16th, 2021 at 7:01 AM ^
Past Stats are a good predictor of future but it cannot take into account rivalry, emotion, game plan for a specific game etc. But you cannot dismiss stats. There is a reason underdogs win games. Stats can show you how. In this case, more pressure on QB and your ability to score on Offense have resulted in tight games or even win against OSU. Executing that is a different story. But stats is not end all be all, but not garbage either.
November 16th, 2021 at 7:03 AM ^
Actually, these are real statistics based on historical data and a model. Many things like this are projected based on historical data and the best information at the time. And, yes at a point in time. Next week after the games of this weekend the projections will change again. It's not faux science, its how statistics work in all walks of life. Of course ESPNs model can be wrong, another can have a more accurate model etc. But thousands literally thousands of things in life are modeled and projected in the exact same way, based on imperfect information, but the best information available at the time. Tell this to the climatologists, hedge fund managers, virologists, etc. I doubt they think they are practicing faux science.
November 16th, 2021 at 7:22 AM ^
The problem with football is that we don’t play enough games to have a reliable sample size. By the time the MLB, NBA, and NHL playoffs roll around we have gathered enough data to have some meaningful statistics. In football we don’t even have that when the season is over.
Personally, I think that’s part of what makes football so exciting. There’s an element of chaos to it that reflects war, which is what the game attempts to simulate. If the 2007 Patriots played the 2007 Giants 10 times they probably would win 9. But the Giants are our 2007 champions.
Because in football it’s about winning a single game rather than a series and so few games are played, statistics will be of limited value. Similarly, the best stats guys never have perfect NCAA basketball brackets. The perfect brackets are always dumb luck by someone who didn’t know squat.
November 16th, 2021 at 8:45 AM ^
1. Can you find any documented example of a perfect NCAA bracket?
2. An expert (who would probably use a well developed model), would definitely have a better chance at a better bracket than someone using dumb luck. The reason that you will often see stories of the best brackets coming from someone using dumb luck is that there are many more brackets done by people using dumb luck than there are by experts. Even though on average an expert is going to pick better than someone using dumb luck, you would be much better off taking the field against a group of experts because there are so many more people in the field. If you were going to bet between two people picking the 1 vs 16 games, would you rather pick the guy that is picking by coin flip, or the guy that understands that a 1 seed is a much better basketball team than a 16 seed?
November 16th, 2021 at 7:27 PM ^
1. I thought there were a small handful of cases but I could be wrong about that.
2. I don’t think anything I wrote argues against what you say here. I merely meant that the unpredictability of the tournament—even among experts who invest a lot in predicting it—is what makes it so exciting.
It’s unpredictability that makes the NCAA BB tourny and the NFL (and to an increasingly lesser extent college football) so much more exciting than other sports. I don’t mean to say that statistics are useless in these sports, just that because they are less accurate they can’t “spoil” the season. If A&M had to play a 7 game series against Alabama rather than a single game, the upset would have been much more unlikely.
November 16th, 2021 at 8:01 AM ^
Nice range of superficial takes on stats and the sciences in this sub-thread! Sound and fury not signifying a great lot, but let's all stay with it! :)
November 16th, 2021 at 11:59 AM ^
Clearly you understand nothing about how these statistics are to be applied, or else you would not be so dismissive with your ridiculous claims of it being a non-scientific method. It is well known that the standard deviation of the differences between predicted point spreads (i.e. pre-game betting lines, which are predictions) and actual game results is in the neighborhood of 15.5 points. That means that if a game shows a spread for your favorite team of -3 points, the outcome can be predicted with high confidence within plus or minus 2 standard deviations of the point estimate, which is -3 ± 31 points in this case. So your favorite team could win by 34 points, or lose by 28!" So your point being "that's why they play the game" is well taken, but to be clear, it is only relevant for a single game. When taking into consideration a large population of games played (over a weekend or a season), the predictive value of said statistics is quite significant and provides an advantage over a simple random selection of game winners.
November 16th, 2021 at 7:02 AM ^
Beat Maryland. That is all.
November 16th, 2021 at 7:03 AM ^
Ahh...we've reached the part of the week where people are convincing themselves Michigan has a chance against OSU, despite chalking that up as a loss for the past 350+ days.
A lot of squinty eyed message board posters (myself included) going "if we just do x, y, and z...we've got a shot!" We sound kind of ridiculous if you take a step back and look at it. In fact, we probably sound like Maryland fans this week.
I said 8-4 before the season, with a +/- 2 win/loss variance...I'm not just going to be pessimistic, not just because I'm a Michigan fan and that's what we do, but because it's worked thus far, so time for me to just cheer hard and hope for the best. But no, I don't honestly see us being Ohio State. Their offense is ridiculous and ours is methodical, predictable, and to this point...pretty doggone effective.
But I refuse to put myself in that headspace where I actually believe. Hope the actual team and fans in the stadium are better than me.
But first?! BEAT MARYLAND.
November 16th, 2021 at 7:25 AM ^
Michigan does have a chance - how good of a chance - is it 30%, 40%, don't know for sure, but I don't believe it's close to zero, and yes we need to beat Maryland first. Let's just say the universe owes us a win here.
November 16th, 2021 at 7:32 AM ^
I'm not saying they don't.
I'm saying it's not high enough for it to be worth getting my hopes up.
I'm also fully admitted that even if it were high enough... I'm still not getting my hopes up.
Blame the past 20 years. Before that, I went into every game thinking we would win.
Then again, I was also like in middle school and high school and didn't know better.
November 16th, 2021 at 7:41 AM ^
Boy, you really went out on a limb there…predicting anywhere between a 6-6 and 10-2 record.
November 16th, 2021 at 11:35 AM ^
I said 8-4 before the season, with a +/- 2 win/loss variance
Sorry, but this is a hilarious. Predicting that Michigan would go anywhere between 6-6 and 10-2 isn't exactly a hot take or really predicting anything for that matter
"How many eggs do you think are in this carton?"
"I'm gonna guess 6 with a +/- 6 variance"
November 16th, 2021 at 7:11 AM ^
"Wins and losses are just statistics", amirite???
November 16th, 2021 at 7:17 AM ^
Not great Bob.
November 16th, 2021 at 7:45 AM ^
Michigan can absolutely beat the Buckeyes. The key is to score touchdowns once we reach the red zone. Settling for field goals will result in a loss.
November 16th, 2021 at 7:48 AM ^
First we will beat Maryland
Next we will beat OSU
Third I will relax my sphincter
November 16th, 2021 at 8:01 AM ^
Fun fact. Ohio State's offense hasn't committed a turnover in The Game in five years.
Fun fact. Michigan hasn't won the turnover margin in The Game since Marcus Hall Epic Bird, 41-42 loss.
Sure would be nice to get a lucky bounce or two for once.
November 16th, 2021 at 11:30 AM ^
My wants are more modest. I would like the referees to call a fair game.
I want them to call the game like the B1g doesn't have an interest in dipshit OSU fans dumping their salary into Ohio State gear.
November 16th, 2021 at 1:22 PM ^
From '91 through 2000, Michigan was 7-2-1 against OSU.
In those ten games, Michigan had 12 turnovers and OSU had 21.
In six of Michigan's victories victories, we had fewer turnovers. In the two losses and the tie, we were even in turnovers, or lost the turnover battle. The only game in which we committed more turnovers but still won was the '95 Biakabutuka game, and the game wouldn't have been that close if Griese hadn't thrown 3 picks.
Starting in 2001—Tressel's first season at OSU—the script flipped. In the 19 games from '01 through 2019, Michigan committed 37 turnovers and OSU had 19.
In those 19 games, Michigan had fewer turnovers on four occasions: 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2013. All four were losses, but three of them were close, tight games, with the total margin over the three games being 8 points.
In two other games we were even with OSU in turnovers—'03 and '11—and I don't think it's a coincidence that those are two games we won.
For the last twenty years, and especially over the last decade, I think it's fair to say OSU has had a measurable talent advantage on both sides of the ball. That's hard enough to deal with, but if you're also losing the turnover battle, you're digging yourself a deep, deep hole.
Going back further all the way to 1969, when Michigan upset a supposedly unbeatable OSU team, it's instructive that OSU's QBs threw six INTs that day.
November 16th, 2021 at 8:18 AM ^
Odds are the same as Blutarsky’s GPA.
November 16th, 2021 at 8:33 AM ^
Objectively. Michigan has beaten OSU 3 times in this century-lost the last 8...the longest winning streak in the modern era. The odds are trending heavily in our favor relative to the approach of the next Michigan win.
November 16th, 2021 at 8:36 AM ^
I think people are vastly overestimating our chances. I put them at 10%, whatever that means. It certainly means we *can* win. But to say we have a 40% chance is saying the teams are roughly equal, and as hard as I try, I just don't see it.
In fact, I think Ohio State wins pretty easily -- maybe by a similar margin as they beat Purdue. They're not intimidated by the Big House, obviously, and God knows they'll be well-prepared and motivated for us, with all cylinders working.
I really hope I'm wrong, obviously. But I think it would take one of those days where we have no turnovers and they have, like, four, for us to have a chance.
(Still, that can happen, obviously. Please let it happen).
November 16th, 2021 at 8:55 AM ^
MICHIGAN v ohio state: What are the Odds?
Unfortunately I think OSU wins out, MSU beats PSU, and UM beats Maryland which means MSU is #2 in the division and UM #3 as MSU gets the tie breaker with the head to head win. I'd love to believe this is they year UM finally gets over the OSU hump, but I just don't see it. I know that's an emotional response. I know OSU has more weaknesses than they have in several years. I think UM's offense has the ability to test OSU's defense and particularly run the ball on them. But, I don't have a ton of confidence our DBs can hang with their WRs. We may be able to minimize Olave in the way we did Dodson, but Wilson and/or their #3 is gonna torch us. The reality is the only time we've beaten OSU in over 15 years is when they had an interim HC. I don't see it happening.
November 16th, 2021 at 10:39 AM ^
Ahh, the Spartan Tears Smell Like Roses scenario.
November 16th, 2021 at 9:12 AM ^
Its funny when people speak the truth about this team, that makes them Harbaugh haters, or trolls or whatever.... its pretty sad. But hey, there are just points- neg away
The facts.
Michigan isn't as talented as OSU. Its not even close. The only spots we are close are TE, RB, and DE, K. Thats it folks. Recruiting has a big factor on game outcomes. Right now 14 of our 17 commits are 3 stars. Now im sure there will be some hidden gems in there, but....Georgia/Alabama/OSU...almost untouchable right now.
This team plays hard, real hard. But lets get real. We have a coach that loves to line it up and run straight at you, with Gattis who specializes in "speed in space". Outside of Corum, there hasnt been much speed in space because its been manball all year. Problem with that, is our QB play lacks any dynamic ability to make any kind of threat down the field. So if you stack the box, we lose. OSU, defensive line will be the best we have played to date and their linebackers are good against the run.
So that leaves CJ...Andel, or Roman to somehow get open? No offense but none of our WR's would have played this year on OSU's team. Ronnie might have seen a bit of action but even thats suspect at best. Thats a tough task to ask any of our QB's to sit back in that pocket waiting for our blanketed WR's to get open against that OSU secondary.
Our defense will play hard, but offense will put them in bad field position all day.
Prediction- another bad loss in the Big House. 44-13 infront of a couple solid recruits that we desperately need.
10-2 wont be a bad season. But to get on an elite level, things have to change.
November 16th, 2021 at 10:15 AM ^
Agree with everything except the comment about OSU d-line being better than Wisconsin's.