September 25th, 2015 at 1:12 PM ^
I still find this hard to believe. I wouldn't ever bet against Michigan but I would be tempted to take BYU here if I was willing to.
September 25th, 2015 at 1:34 PM ^
The line change is probably sharks(smart money) pushing the line up to 6.5 by betting Michigan today when they have every intention to take the points and lay the big money with BYU+6.5 tomorrow. The line will swing back tomorrow in my opinion.
September 25th, 2015 at 1:41 PM ^
So the smart shark money is on Michigan and the big money is on BYU...gotcha
September 25th, 2015 at 2:01 PM ^
Yes, they manipulate lines to get the best possible line for when they lay the big money. Sometimes they have both teams and try to hit the middle. Michigan -3 and Byu +7.5. So if Michigan wins by 4, 5, 6, or 7 they win both otherwise they lose vig on one.
September 25th, 2015 at 3:56 PM ^
It takes "big money" to move lines by 2 points, at every casino. This idea doesn't hold water. As far as betting both sides, that pays off extremely rarely; this line has moved 2-3 points tops but your hypothetical has it moving by 4.5.
Much more likely this line is moving because people playing the "big money" are playing it on Michigan, right now. That's good news.
September 25th, 2015 at 5:01 PM ^
just curious
September 25th, 2015 at 6:33 PM ^
Man, I dunno. Sports betting isn't my thing -- I definitely can't beat the vig on a long-term basis. I guess I like Michigan, considering the matchup and the moving lines. BYU is vulnerable to the run, and I like our secondary against their receivers and QB.
But who knows. As far as this moving line, in reality I think this line has been moving since it opened. Looking closer at this I don't think the move has actually been "overnight" -- there are news stories from days ago citing a 6 point spread. I do think the money has been mostly on Michigan since it opened, but people like to bet on Michigan. I was in Vegas just before the season started and ready to put some high-risk funds on us being national champion this year, but we were only 40-1. I passed.
September 25th, 2015 at 5:47 PM ^
It's called "sharps" lol
September 25th, 2015 at 1:53 PM ^
So much that it caused a 2 point swing... So they can put really really heavy money on BYU tomorrow? All to take advantage of 2 extra points that are highly unlikely to effect who gets paid? I suppose it's possible, but it seems like a huge gambit.
September 25th, 2015 at 2:11 PM ^
The market doesn't fully open until tomorrow. Not as much money is needed to move lines on a thurs night or friday morning.
When your around key numbers like 3 and 7, a few points does often affect who gets paid.
September 25th, 2015 at 1:59 PM ^
Sharks, man. Sharks.
Everywhere I go I can't seem to get away from those dang sharks. I'm not much of a betting man because everyone always brings up the sharks. Gotta watch out for the sharks. Avoid the sharks. Play here, there aren't any sharks. You better run now, sharks are coming soon.
It seems like sharks have some sort of infinite, forever power over everything. What are we to do? How do we become a shark? Are there meetings, shark-only clubs? Where they discuss their strategy to kill all the broke thumb-twiddlers?
I'm trying my luck on low stakes DFS, and all I keep hearing is that the sharks win all the money. If they always win, why are they playing $2.20 buy in games? To make $4? What's the point if they are a shark. Go steal someones money in the $200 buy in. Jeez.
Sharks, man. Sharks.
September 25th, 2015 at 2:13 PM ^
They're not really sharks if they don't have lasers.
September 25th, 2015 at 2:52 PM ^
We couldn't get the sharks. Those are Sea Bass... mutated Sea Bass.
September 25th, 2015 at 3:09 PM ^
September 25th, 2015 at 3:20 PM ^
No, but they are really tasty with some lemon and dill.
September 25th, 2015 at 3:51 PM ^
Oh yes.
September 26th, 2015 at 1:46 AM ^
September 25th, 2015 at 2:17 PM ^
Analysis from Rotogrinders conducted for Bloomberg shows that the top 100 ranked players enter 330 winning lineups per day, and the top 10 players combine to win an average of 873 times daily. The remaining field of approximately 20,000 players tracked by Rotogrinders wins just 13 times per day, on average.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-10/you-aren-t-good-enoug…
September 25th, 2015 at 2:46 PM ^
That's encouraging....
September 25th, 2015 at 3:02 PM ^
It's seems like there are too many variables involved that simply aren't predictable through data & understanding for the results to end up so heavily slanted. This indicates to me that these daily fantasy things are rigged. Either that or simply that there are an awful lot more people casually dabbling than taking it seriously (which might make sense given the network TV advertising).
September 25th, 2015 at 2:21 PM ^
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September 25th, 2015 at 3:23 PM ^
I thought Shark Week was last month.
September 25th, 2015 at 1:58 PM ^
I wouldn't ever bet against MichiganMaybe this is how the spread rises ;)
September 25th, 2015 at 2:52 PM ^
Asked and answered below.
September 25th, 2015 at 3:06 PM ^
Just as Midwestern teams have a poor track record playing out west, schools in the West tend to struggle when they go east. This is a long roadtrip for BYU at the end of a pretty grueling month - they've already played in the Central, Mountain and Pacific timezones and now are playing in the East. That can catch up to a team, especially when every game has been a dogfight.
September 25th, 2015 at 9:59 PM ^
September 25th, 2015 at 1:13 PM ^
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September 25th, 2015 at 1:20 PM ^
If this was a legitimate argument, BYU would have a history of favorable results against the spread (ATS). They do not.
Since 2004, BYU is 72-64-3 (52.9%) ATS. For reference, Ohio State is 64% ATS.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/trends/ats_trends/?range=yearly_since_…
September 25th, 2015 at 1:30 PM ^
Wouldn't favorable results ATS be 50.1%?
I would then suggest that they do in fact have favorable results ATS.
September 25th, 2015 at 1:37 PM ^
There's a significant standard deviation in the numbers that BYU is well within and there's a lot of teams well above BYU. If BYU was being systematically undervalued (due to Mormons not betting), they'd have a statistically significant difference from the norm. They don't.
Put another way - even if you flipped a coin 100 times for each team you'd get a whole lot of 'teams' with more than 52% heads (someone can run the probability numbers and tell you exactly how many, if they are bored.)
September 25th, 2015 at 1:48 PM ^
I was just nitpicking that you said they weren't favorable ATS, because they were slightly favorable. However, I would say that their favorability was not statistically significant. Why do I bring up the point? I guess because splitting hairs over stupid things is something the internet brings out of me.
September 25th, 2015 at 1:55 PM ^
22% of the time if we were flipping a coin and BYU was winning was heads we would get 72 or more wins. So with extremely high confidence we can say that the odds are not unfair or biased.
September 25th, 2015 at 1:58 PM ^
beating the line 2% more than usual doesn't help much against (just shy of) an average 5% juice per play.
September 25th, 2015 at 1:22 PM ^
Serious question here. Am I going to see any BYU fans drinking at the tailgates tomorrow?
September 25th, 2015 at 1:34 PM ^
Not if they are observant Mormons, no.
On the other hand, I have clients from the Middle East who are observant Muslims while in their own country. But get them to a non-Muslim city (like Amsterdam), and they drink like it's the end of the world. Maybe Ann Arbor is to Mormons as Amsterdam is to Muslims???
September 25th, 2015 at 2:04 PM ^
Ann Arbor: Tree Town
Ann Arbor: Mormon Amsterdam
September 25th, 2015 at 1:38 PM ^
They have a lot of non-mormon fans. Not as many as Utah, but still significant numbers.
September 25th, 2015 at 1:57 PM ^
Do Catholics always chaste before they get married?
September 25th, 2015 at 2:08 PM ^
September 25th, 2015 at 3:23 PM ^
September 25th, 2015 at 2:47 PM ^
Most money laid on teams is not by the fans of the teams played, it is by sports bettors who bet on a variety of games.
September 25th, 2015 at 1:13 PM ^
I have NEVER bet against Michigan but at that number I may have to make an exception.
Can you imagine teasing BYU so you'd get them at +13? Damn that's a crazy line.
September 25th, 2015 at 1:50 PM ^
Was thinking the same thing. Teasing BYU to -13 is pretty tempting.
September 25th, 2015 at 1:55 PM ^
..though if you really like BYU to win in a blowout you could probably get REALLY good odds on that ;)
September 25th, 2015 at 2:01 PM ^
I don't think you understand what a teaser is.
September 25th, 2015 at 2:50 PM ^
you know that
September 25th, 2015 at 3:01 PM ^
You don't want to tease to 13. Teases are good for jumping common score outcomes not jumping just below one.
If the line is 7.5 it would be good to tease to 1.5 because you are getting the value of removing 2 common scores...7 and 3. If the line is 7.5 and you tease to 13.5 you're only jumping 1 score level 10 and losing a potential donkey punch by .5 at 14.
September 25th, 2015 at 1:14 PM ^
Has there been any update on Tuiloma?
September 25th, 2015 at 1:20 PM ^
He is not playing. His comment was his own last week and got a lot of focus for something he said, not the staff said and if I am the staff I let it sit out there anyhow to add a wrinkle.
As others have said strange line. If rudock plays like Iowa 2014 rudock I see this as a 3 pt game. If he plays as Michigan rudock this one has trouble written on it.