Michigan Football Bowl Forecast Pre-OSU
With only one more regular-season game to go, I thought it would be fun to look at the bowl scenarios we are facing.
If we Beat OSU:
Rose Bowl vs Oregon/Utah
- We would need Wisconsin to beat Minnesota this week and hope the committee would rank us ahead of Penn State.
Outback Bowl/Citrus Bowl vs Auburn/Texas A&M
If we Lose to OSU:
Holiday Bowl vs USC/ASU
Gator Bowl vs Tennessee/Miss St
The Rose Bowl may sound like a pipe dream, but it is definitely not out of the question. If Wisconsin goes to the B!G Champ and loses to OSU, then the Rose Bowl will likely have to choose between a 2-loss Michigan, 2-loss Penn State, and a 3-loss Wisconsin. It is possible that beating OSU would put Michigan ahead of Penn State in the official Playoff Rankings.
Bottom line....Just beat Ohio State.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:24 PM ^
Hmmm, joins 7 days ago and makes some idiotic criticism of Harbaugh. Great first impression there chief.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:30 PM ^
He admits in prior posts he is an OSU fan. He's an awful one as well, a standard Ohioan who meets the type.
Ignore.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:32 PM ^
Switches back and forth between referring to Michigan as "us" and expressing great concern for the direction of the program, and referring to himself with the phrase "as an Ohio State fan."
https://mgoblog.com/users/patek5970
November 25th, 2019 at 12:49 PM ^
You sound like an idiot and you should shove that watch up your ass.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:23 PM ^
How do none of these bowl projections have Florida in them? They seem to be forgetting that Michigan is locked in some kind of inter-dimensional time warp where it has to play Florida every single year. But in all seriousness......
Right now I'd say the biggest likelihoods are the Holiday Bowl or the Outback Bowl. Let's be honest: even with all the improvements, beating OSU next Saturday is a very tall order, so for now, I assume Michigan loses that game. Penn State and Wisconsin are ahead of Michigan in the bowl pecking order in that situation, and I think Wisconsin is S.O.L with the NY6. If they lose this weekend, they're 9-3. If they win and go to Indy, they're getting hamblasted again and go 10-3, so that's not NY6 material. Probably the Citrus Bowl for them. PSU is in an NY6 bowl as long as they beat Rutgers next weekend, which they will. If they win next weekend, Michigan loses, and Minnesota/Wisconsin get annihilated in Indy, they go to Pasadena.
I will say this, though. If Michigan somehow, someway, finds a way to win on Saturday, they've got as good a shot as anyone to go to the Rose Bowl. They'd absolutely be the highest ranked non-OSU B1G team, they'd be fresh off the biggest upset of the regular season, coming in on a tidal wave of momentum, huge fanbase that will travel anywhere, TV ratings, etc. Even if they didn't get the Rose Bowl, they'd absolutely get into an NY6 bowl.
Probably playing.....Florida.
November 25th, 2019 at 1:10 PM ^
While I am inclined to agree, what has been OSU's toughest road game this season? Indiana? Nebraska? (they've played at Indiana, Nebraska, Northwestern, and Rutgers).
It will take a lot to beat OSU, and we'll likely need some breaks (them fumbling in their own territory and Michigan recovering, etc.), but it's definitely doable.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:28 PM ^
Just going to be out of my mind happy if we finally beat OSU. It's far from a sure thing. Even assuming the refs call a fair game and don't try to cover so the B1G sends someone to the playoff is far from a sure thing. Delaney is still around.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:28 PM ^
So an outside chance at one game to care about, versus every other scenario of another crap bowl game with a bunch of guys sitting out that will end in a result literally no one will remember.
System is broken.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:34 PM ^
Very. There will be movement to expand the playoff soon, perhaps real discussions as early as this off-season. The playoff and the bowl games are not compatible like they hoped they would be. What they did was a half measure and now they have a mess.
November 25th, 2019 at 1:31 PM ^
I don't think it's a matter of the playoff and bowl games being incompatable so much as the country (starting with the players) realizing how dumb bowl games are with fans refusing to shell out $1,000s of dollars to attend them and are barely willing to spend 3.5 hours watching them.
In a rapidly changing media landscape, meaningless exhibition games were going to be doomed regardless of whether a playoff existed or not.
So yes, the playoff will be expanding very soon to make more post season games meaningful.
November 25th, 2019 at 2:17 PM ^
I guess it is just a huge coincidence that players and fans realized how "dumb" bowl games were right when the Playoff started?
And I am honestly not sure how the media landscape plays into it at all.
November 25th, 2019 at 3:45 PM ^
The players have been sitting out in increasing numbers year after year. It's not like that happened immediately when the playoff was instituted. That's separate issue than fan apathy, admittedly.
Increasing fan apathy as a result of changing generational tastes, changing media landscape, etc., isn't limited to bowl games, but bowl games are the most susceptible to fan apathy, because they're mostly meaningless money grabs.
That's also been a gradual development. I'm not sure why you're suggesting this is a cliff that happened when the playoffs started as a result of the playoffs.
The bowls are dying a slow death, and one could argue football as a sport is dying a slow (albeit, slower) death. Just look at the student sections anywhere around the country.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:56 PM ^
Rain and snow.
November 25th, 2019 at 2:00 PM ^
when we beat OSU 50-12, we will be playoff bound
November 25th, 2019 at 2:04 PM ^
While it would never happen, they should just get rid of conference affiliation with the bowl games. Top 4 make the playoff and then match them up from there: 5 vs 6, 6 vs 7 etc..
November 25th, 2019 at 10:38 PM ^
Would 6 have to play a doubleheader?
1st game v 7? 2nd game v 5?
November 25th, 2019 at 2:13 PM ^
No one really seems to be suggesting it for some reason, but I cant help but wonder why wouldn't UM be ranked above OSU if they were to beat them this weekend. It's not like wer'e an 8-4 team or something. Michigan would be 10-2 and vastly improved over their early season struggles.
November 25th, 2019 at 2:19 PM ^
Hmmm.
That is actually a really good point.
November 25th, 2019 at 2:54 PM ^
This gets back to the question of whether the CFP's goal is to pick the "best teams at the moment" or the "most deserving teams". It seems like the CFP committee chooses whichever philosophy will help them get Alabama and Ohio State into the playoff.
If Michigan beats OSU, it's hard to argue that they're not one of the best teams at the moment. But then OSU can go and crush whoever comes out of the Big Ten West and that will effectively sweep their loss under the rug.
November 25th, 2019 at 4:11 PM ^
Yes, selecting the best teams or the most deserving teams can become a difficult part of the playoff process. I was also recently wondering about this subject.
If Michigan wins and dominates OSU, how can they not be considered the better team?
The records won't be too far apart and the committee has shown they're willingly to place a 2 loss team ahead of an one loss team.
The committee might momentarily place Michigan ahead of OSU as being the better team.
Though if OSU wins the Big 10 title, then they'll probably leap Michigan and go to the playoff as being the more deserving team.
Many people on TV often defiantly say it's all about choosing the four best teams and not most deserving, but the committee usually seems to try to do a balance between both.
November 25th, 2019 at 3:23 PM ^
It depends on how Michigan wins as well, but it's an entirely fair question. If M wins comfortably, I would agree that it'd be very tempting to put M ahead of OSU.
Would come down to how far Michigan's clunker at Wisconsin is in the committee's rearview mirror and how much weight the committee puts on Michigan's last 4-5 games in which they've clearly been a different team.
On the other hand, OSU has completely dominated all comers this season though. They'd still have a better resume. If the committee takes a "full season resume" approach, a road loss, especially if close, to a top 10 team probably won't drop them below us.
Either way, if OSU then goes on to win the conference, they'd probably jump back over M anyway.
November 25th, 2019 at 2:17 PM ^
I hope we don't see USC in a bowl game. Would rather pick up a win against TN.
November 25th, 2019 at 2:59 PM ^
I agree that 10-3 with a win over TN will feel a whole lot better than 9-4 with back-to-back losses to Ohio State and USC.
But 10-3 with a win against USC would be awesome. Tough choice.
November 25th, 2019 at 2:22 PM ^
Here's what I have:
--We beat OSU and jump Florida
--Auburn beats Alabama, sending them to 2 losses
--Oklahoma St beats Oklahoma, sending them to 2 losses
--Wisconsin beats Minnesota, sending them to 2 losses
--OSU beats Wisconsin and goes to the playoffs
--Clemson beats some random ACC team, goes to playoffs
--LSU beats Georgia, sending them to 2 losses, and LSU goes to playoffs
--Oklahoma beats Baylor, sending them to 2 losses
--Oregon beats Utah, sending them to 2 losses
THE BOYZ ARE IN THE PLAYOFFS!!!
November 25th, 2019 at 2:28 PM ^
None of those things on their own are that outlandish, the problem is having them all happen. But at least there is greater than a 0% chance.
November 25th, 2019 at 2:33 PM ^
It's happening...
November 25th, 2019 at 4:01 PM ^
It's funny, my brother was just running through this scenario listing the 7-9 things needed for UM to make the playoffs. My response was that I have been a UM fan for 40 years and I don't remember 7-9 things going their way in that 40 year stretch combined, let alone all of them happening in the next couple of weeks. I remember 2006 when UM needed 7-9 things to go wrong in order for them to be left out and sure enough those things all happened, but not 7 things going UM's way. I did appreciate his optimism though.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:54 PM ^
If all that happens wouldn't Wisconsin have a better shot to get in to the playoffs than Michigan?
And Georgia would still have only 1 regular season loss, and would have been in their Conference Championship Game. They'd be in instead of Michigan.
November 26th, 2019 at 1:23 AM ^
A three loss Wisconsin team that didn't win their conference and lost to Illinois?
No chance.
November 26th, 2019 at 1:33 AM ^
UGA or Michigan would be the debate. They'd have pretty similar metrics and then wouldn't the committee have to lean Michigan based on them being super hot and their dramatically better performance against their one common opponent (both at home too): Notre Dame?
It does beg the question: if LSU loses this weekend to A&M and then loses to UGA in the title game, would Michigan have a better chance of making over an LSU team that has lost two straight?
FiveThirtyEight seems to think so (gives M a 8% chance if LSU has two losses and a 6% chance if UGA has two losses - assuming a Michigan win this weekend of course)
Either way, root for LSU to lose this weekend as well.
November 25th, 2019 at 2:30 PM ^
Well...there's also this...
If Utah loses one of its final 2 games, then USC would win the Pac 12-South...if they won the P12CCG and Michigan beats Ohio State then...Michigan v. USC in the Rose Bowl
November 25th, 2019 at 2:35 PM ^
Pretty sure Utah only has one more game, but yes, if they lose to Colorado, USC wins the division and would play Oregon.
November 25th, 2019 at 2:39 PM ^
My brain is saved because I only had to read half of your post.
November 25th, 2019 at 2:40 PM ^
I'm still deep in the BPONE for The Game, so I'm fully expecting to play Florida in a bowl game named after food.
November 25th, 2019 at 2:45 PM ^
As long as we don't play Florida again.
November 25th, 2019 at 2:53 PM ^
I don't care what bowl we qualify for as long as it's not against Florida
November 25th, 2019 at 3:02 PM ^
Man the thought of finishing 11-2 with a win over Ohio State and a Rose Bowl champions banner sounds so good after starting the season the way we did.
November 25th, 2019 at 4:36 PM ^
I mean who gives a shit! Really man. We have to win this week! I’m sick of losing to them. My son is 17 years old and can’t even remember seeing us win vs them. I could care less if we even go to a Bowl as all I want is to beat them. Damn
November 25th, 2019 at 9:13 PM ^
This weekend's game determines the next two games for us. If we lose to OSU, we will lose an "also-ran" bowl game where several players sit to prep for the draft. If we beat OSU, we will win the Rose Bowl, and there might not be a single player who sits that one out. There will be no in-betweens for us. So let's win the whole f*ckin' thing! Go Blue!
November 25th, 2019 at 10:03 PM ^
I cannot see us ranked ahead of Penn State no matter how plausible that should be.
November 26th, 2019 at 12:11 AM ^
But Penn St and Wisconsin both lost to Ohio St. Michigan is playing better now than they were when they played both Wisconsin and Penn St. If Michigan beats Ohio St it might be enough to move them up above both teams, since how a team is playing at the end of the season is a factor the committee uses.
There should be an 8 team playoff. Lots of these questions about who qualifies, and why, would go out the window then.
November 25th, 2019 at 10:04 PM ^
Also, if we're honest Ohio State is our bowl game and its bigger.
November 25th, 2019 at 10:50 PM ^
If Michigan beats Ohio State and Minnesota beats Wisconsin this weekend, and OSU beats Minnesota in the conference championship (not too badly) and goes to the playoff, I would not be surprised if the Rose Bowl selected Minnesota over Michigan, and couldn't really blame them or get too upset about it.
Against the top common opponents (OSU, Wisconsin, PSU), Minnesota would be 2-1 while Michigan would be 1-2; Minnesota is more of a Cinderella story; they will have a division title, and while Michigan would be a great draw, for Minnesota fans it will be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity that the Pasadena/Tournament of Roses might not want to pass up.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:34 PM ^
Citrus Bowl vs Auburn looks like the best/realistic right now to me.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:35 PM ^
The Rose Bowl may sound like a pipe dream, but it is definitely not out of the question.
Where's that Jim Carry telling me there's a chance GIF?
November 26th, 2019 at 12:08 AM ^
Because I think either Wisconsin or Minnesota will get the Rose Bowl, because one or the other will qualify to be in a Conference Championship. And the Committee adds points for being in one. If Minnesota beats Wisconsin, I think the winner of the BIG 10 Conference Championship will get into the top 4 Playoffs, and the loser will be in the Rose Bowl.
November 26th, 2019 at 6:20 AM ^
Michigan finishes 9-3 and heads to Florida to play either Auburn or Texas A&M in the Citrus Bowl. Would love to play Oklahoma. The only time I want to go to the Rose again is if it’s a playoff site. Rose Bowl mentality reminds me of our annual ass whipping there during the Bo years by USC or UCLA. That’s the 80’s mentality. Ohio State considers the Rose Bowl as a bad season unless it’s a playoff game. That’s why they are where they are today
November 26th, 2019 at 8:23 AM ^
Will be interesting to see how close CFP ranks us compared to penn state. You gotta think we will jump at LEAST 2-3 spots by beating OSU... I am not concerned about Row the Boat. UM finally beating the bucknuts will be the most dominating story in football. This one's for the Rose Bowl, folks. Let's get it done.