Michigan Football Bowl Forecast Pre-OSU
With only one more regular-season game to go, I thought it would be fun to look at the bowl scenarios we are facing.
If we Beat OSU:
Rose Bowl vs Oregon/Utah
- We would need Wisconsin to beat Minnesota this week and hope the committee would rank us ahead of Penn State.
Outback Bowl/Citrus Bowl vs Auburn/Texas A&M
If we Lose to OSU:
Holiday Bowl vs USC/ASU
Gator Bowl vs Tennessee/Miss St
The Rose Bowl may sound like a pipe dream, but it is definitely not out of the question. If Wisconsin goes to the B!G Champ and loses to OSU, then the Rose Bowl will likely have to choose between a 2-loss Michigan, 2-loss Penn State, and a 3-loss Wisconsin. It is possible that beating OSU would put Michigan ahead of Penn State in the official Playoff Rankings.
Bottom line....Just beat Ohio State.
November 25th, 2019 at 1:04 PM ^
Actually, ND can only make the Orange as the opponent of the ACC team. The Orange has to take the highest rated Big Ten team, SEC team, or Notre Dame (but only after the semifinals, the Rose and the Sugar get their teams selected). So the Orange Bowl team will probably be ranked around #7 to #10.
Interestingly, if the current bowl lineup had been in effect last year, the Orange Bowl would have been between #7 Michigan and #20 Syracuse. The Cotton Bowl would have matched up #8 Central Florida and #10 Florida. But instead, the Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowl were the semifinals last year, so Michigan and Florida were forced into the least attractive NY6 game, the Peach Bowl.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:33 AM ^
Speaking of Florida State, they may very well end up in Detroit for the Quick Lane Bowl against MSU.
This would punish MSU by forcing Dantonio to go to Detroit where he is no longer welcomed thanks to the Blackwell incident. It would also punish FSU by making them leave Florida to come up to Detroit in December.
Talk about a win/win.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:03 PM ^
Imagine telling MSU and FSU fans pre-season that they're playing each other during bowl season. They'd both be thinking CFP match up. lol
November 25th, 2019 at 12:19 PM ^
If FSU is in that bowl, I’ll donate $20 to whomever can get the game moved to Comerica Park so it’s outdoors.
November 25th, 2019 at 1:24 PM ^
If you're going to fake bribe someone on the internet, don't be so cheap. At least make it $30.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:25 PM ^
And even if none of these things were possible, they would probably find a referee from Florida to officiate the game.
November 25th, 2019 at 2:38 PM ^
If we beat Ohio State, I couldn’t care less on who we would play in a bowl game— even if that is Florida in Florida haha.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:30 AM ^
I don't think Wisconsin would need to beat Minnesota. It would be helpful, but not necessary assuming OSU took care of Minnesota the following week.
Also, if we did not make the Rose Bowl would be still be in a NY6 bowl. It may not be great, possibly the Sugar Bowl against a Group of 5 team, but no way we beat OSU and not make a NY6 bowl.
November 25th, 2019 at 1:18 PM ^
If Michigan beats OSU, they'll be the second highest ranked B1G team unless OSU loses the conf title game. And I can't imagine the Rose Bowl going against their desire to take the highest rated team to not pick Michigan given how long it's been since Michigan has been there.
Win Saturday and it's Rose Bowl or bust (with an outside shot at the playoff - c'mon Auburn and Ok St!).
November 25th, 2019 at 5:24 PM ^
According to fivethirtyeight, we have a 19% chance of making the playoff if:
- Auburn beats Alabama
- Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma
- Michigan beats Ohio State
- Minnesota beats Wisconsin
That's a lot of dominoes to fall, with the probability of that slate going exactly the way we need it to at roughly 1.5% chance. Still, I am kind of surprised there is any combination of results that would give us that good of a shot, given we are out of the running for the conference and have two losses.
November 26th, 2019 at 1:18 AM ^
I've been playing with that too.
The weird thing is, the model was giving M a 3% overall chance yesterday. Not sure why it dropped to 2% today.
Minnesota doesn't really need to beat Wisconsin. In fact, I'm pretty surprised that that M's odds go up to 19% from 14% if Minnesota beats Wisconsin vs down to 12% if Wisconsin beats Minnesota.
You'd think having a team that Michigan played appear better would help Michigan because it makes that loss look "better". Maybe it's because the model gives Wisconsin a better chance to beat OSU which would then hurt the strength of Michigan's best win. That's probably it.
In which case, Wisconsin beating Minnesota but losing to OSU is probably best case. We aren't able to model that scenario though so when left up the chance the model gives Michigan a better chance if it's more confident OSU would win the conf title.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:33 AM ^
this week is the bowl game
November 25th, 2019 at 12:06 PM ^
Once we lost to PSU and our B1G title hopes essentially gone, beating the 3 rivals became the goal. 2 down, the hard 1 to go. I just hope we can get it done. MSU has beaten M when M was more talented, hopefully we can do the same to OSU.
Go Blue!
November 25th, 2019 at 12:12 PM ^
No. I don't want our best players to sit out, thank you very much.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:33 AM ^
A win over OSU will be like a super bowl at this point! Bowl games since the playoffs are pretty meaningless. They really need to expand the playoffs to 8 games, since there's teams like Michigan who are finally playing up to their potential and may now be playoff caliber.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:48 AM ^
They’re “meaningless” until you lose them and then all of the dopes who called them meaningless are the loudest and first to bitch.
Going into the offseason with positive momentum is key.
November 25th, 2019 at 3:29 PM ^
You pay too much attention to twitter dopes. Just because some annoying hawt takes purveyors will be all over the socials, doesn't change the fact that it is a meaningless game in the scheme of things.
Rose Bowl means something. Playoffs mean something. That's it for this Michigan team. We aren't climbing back into the national picture like we were in 2015.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:53 AM ^
The other bowl games are really the same as they always were in the BCS era and people cared then. I am not sure why people think they don't matter now.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:04 PM ^
Simple. They matter when we win, e.g., "Harbaugh has THREE TEN WIN SEASONS", but not when we lose.
Anyone who thinks showing up to a bowl looking unprepared and losing doesn't hurt the team needs to think twice.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:57 PM ^
It sure seemed to matter to Florida last year.....
Frankly, I think the whole "the bowl games don't matter anymore" is an excuse that comes from a team having a shitty record in bowl games.
November 25th, 2019 at 1:38 PM ^
That's because they were excited about kicking off a new coaching era and being good again. Same as Michigan in 2015 (game on Jan 1, 2016).
Michigan's players last year, were like, meh. Been here done that. I'm resting for the pros.
November 25th, 2019 at 3:10 PM ^
I believe this statement is very true. The start of the Harbaugh era helped motivate the team for that January 1, 2016 match up against Florida. The Michigan teams haven't really played good in a bowl game since that time.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:33 AM ^
The Rose Bowl logic is sound here, with one big caveat. A one loss OSU team would need to get a CFP spot. Seems likely, but not a given. First though, beat OSU!
November 25th, 2019 at 11:39 AM ^
I really don't see a one loss OSU not getting in. The teams they could be snubbed for would be a one loss Big 12 champion, a one loss PAC 12 champion or a one loss Alabama. First two aren't happening as the committee has made it clear that the Big 12 and PAC 12 are below the Big Ten in their rankings. One loss Alabama is a small possibility but I don't think the committee wants to deal with that shitstorm and they will value Alabama lower without Tua. It would take an absolute destruction of Auburn I think for them to put Alabama in.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:58 AM ^
A one loss OSU misses the playoff if we pound the shit out of them. Otherwise, I think they're in.
November 25th, 2019 at 1:41 PM ^
It would have to be like a 40 point game with Fields getting hurt to keep them out. A 20 point game without any big injuries (Young or Fields) and they'll still be in if they win the conference.
There's no one else that would pass them. Their metrics are way too good (and will remain so).
November 25th, 2019 at 11:39 AM ^
Weird situations around the country right now as far as the playoff goes.
Particularly Bama. I think the Playoff committee probably really wants Auburn to beat Alabama. People have Clemson v. Bama fatigue and Bama is playing a back up QB.
November 25th, 2019 at 2:22 PM ^
I think literally the entire country aside from Bama fans (and SEC execs) wants Auburn to beat Bama.
Even if they beat Auburn, I still think the committee is going to keep them at 5th if there's another one loss conf champ (Utah or OU or Minnesota or Baylor).
They've played a terrible schedule and have mediocre resume metrics. Their only win over a ranked team would be Auburn. I think they'd have to put up like 40 and look really good with the backup QB to even get consideration.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:35 AM ^
I don't think the UW-UMinn game is relevant. If we beat OSU and OSU wins the Big Ten, one of UW/UMinn is guaranteed to have 3 losses (be behind us) and the other will have 2 losses, including one or two losses to OSU, which we beat. Given our clustering with those teams now, the negative gravity of an extra loss and the comparison of who did/did not beat OSU, there's a good chance Michigan will be ahead of both in either scenario. The same is almost true with the PSU comparison, but without another loss, we'd have to pass them. Coin flip.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:40 AM ^
I think the way the system is set up, the Rose Bowl gets to choose but it is supposed to be the next highest-ranked team by the committee. I'm not sure an 11-2 Minnesota team would be behind us.
Plus Minnesota hasn't been to the Rose Bowl in an even longer period of time than us. I don't see us getting to the Rose Bowl if Minnesota gets to the conference championship game.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:49 AM ^
A 2 loss Minnesota would absolutely behind UM. There is currently only going to be one or two spots between them already. No way a win against OSU doesn't move UM up more spots than that. Also there is no strength of schedule comparison, UM has by far the best non conference win between the two teams and it was a blowout as well. There is almost 0 chance the committee would have a two loss Minny higher. Also a very high chance that a two loss Michigan is ahead PSU. PSU has no more games to move up/impress the committee, Michigan has a game left that would move them up multiple spots. The committee is not going to care about the head to head in a one score game when UM is clearly the better team right now.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:54 AM ^
Next highest ranked Big 10 team actually. If we beat OSU and Minnesota loses to OSU, we most likely jump them. Pretty sure the committee will put us at 10 this week to protect OSU in case they do lose this weekend.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:42 AM ^
If we beat the number 2 team in the country, we'll be in the Rose Bowl over PSU. The WI vs MN winner would have a 3rd loss against OSU. If we lose, looks like a lock for the Holiday Bowl.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:46 AM ^
It is impossible for us to go to the Outback Bowl. We’ve been there too recently and they will not take us. Heard that on WTKA last week.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:48 AM ^
Good! If we finish with 3 losses, I'd rather go to the Holiday Bowl and play USC.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:48 AM ^
Ok, so the Holiday Bowl, Citrus, and Gator are more likely.
If I had to guess, a loss to OSU would lead us to the Holiday Bowl.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:27 PM ^
I thought we were unlikely to get both the Outback and the Citrus because they agreed to not have the same team twice from 2014 to 2019 and Michigan played the Citrus following the 2015 season. Same goes for Penn State and Minnesota. Wisconsin and Iowa are unlikely to go to the Outback bowl. Therefore Wisconsin to the Citrus and Minnesota or Penn State to the Outback.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:52 AM ^
At least we won't play Florida again.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:55 AM ^
Thanks for posting.
No doubt if we beat OSU we'd be ahead of PSU in the rankings, at least in my mind. They value who you beat, right? Michigan would have beaten OSU, top-15 Iowa and ND. That's one more significant win vs. PSU's (Michigan and Iowa), with the best win of the season from any team on Michigan's resume. Head-to-head matters, but I don't think that much. Nature of the game and the comeback will also factor in.
November 25th, 2019 at 1:23 PM ^
M will be very close to being ahead of PSU this week, they'll definitely be ahead of PSU if they beat OSU.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:57 AM ^
Teams ahead of Michigan that are strong possibilities to lose this weekend.
- Alabama vs Auburn
- Minnesota vs Wisconsin
Also on upset alert is Oklahoma at Oklahoma State
If Michigan beats OSU, we'd probably climb up to 8th, possibly 7th in the rankings. Penn State isn't going anywhere having to play Rutgers, they'll just stay at 12.
Plus it's been a long time since Michigan has made an appearance in Pasadena, so I'm sure the Rose Bowl committee would find us a very appealing option.
We beat the Buckeyes on Saturday, we have a great chance of making the Rose Bowl.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:57 AM ^
The Rose Bowl is not a pipe dream. We beat ohio and it's a reality. The Rose Bowl committee chooses who they want in and a win over the #2 ranked team in the country almost solidifies a bid given our ranking right now.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:00 PM ^
Committee actually has to select the highest ranked team in the playoff rankings, they don't have a choice. But the larger point still stands because there a very large chance of UM finishing ahead of Minny and PSU with a win over OSU.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:59 AM ^
I would be pretty happy with any of those. Just as long as we don't play Florida. We could take any of those SEC teams. The Pac12 teams are good, but I still feel like we could take them too.
Oregon just gave up 400 yards to a true freshman QB. Imagine what the new speed in space could do to them
November 25th, 2019 at 11:59 AM ^
Sounds like the Holiday Bowl. Hope guys don’t sit out. Would be nice to end the season with a bowl win.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:01 PM ^
All but this
Gator Bowl vs Tennessee/Miss St
sounds pretty cool.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:04 PM ^
Definitely an all or nothing proposition for UM in terms of bowl prospects. Beat OSU and most likely end up in the Rose Bowl with another NY6 most likely being worst case, or lose and end up in a bleh bowl against an opponent with 4 or more losses that players might sit for. A matchup with Tennessee would be god awful. Most likely a win is the one positive but just god awful in terms of interest. A win over USC would be cool to get some revenge for past losses, but a win over a lame duck coach would not move the needle for hype for next year.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:09 PM ^
Looking at flights to SD around that time has be hoping for a FL bowl. (Rose Bowl and other NY6 bowl caveats apply)
November 25th, 2019 at 12:18 PM ^
Sorry, just listening to the Harbaugh press conference now and he has to be the most unpolished public speaker UM has ever had. Even worst than Hoke. He sounds like an idiot.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:21 PM ^
Ok boomer.
Make sure your insult is spelled correctly before you call someone an idiot.