The Michigan Daily asks "Would this be the best win of the Harbaugh era?"
Max Marcovitch in his Michigan Daily column actually makes a better case than I anticipated, in large part because the big wins on the resume aren't very big.
Then I turn on Zach Shaw's and Steve Lorenz's podcast. Shaw wants to open with dispelling the myth that Saturday's game is even all that important.
Honestly, I wasn't aware until just now of a lot "must win!" chatter. As Shaw points out, this is about the most okay-to-lose game on the schedule. Marcovitch acknowledges something similar as well.
But it would be, yes, Harbaugh's first road win with Michigan against a team that is ranked in the Coaches Poll! (MSU was ranked #24 in the AP last year but not Coaches Poll.) Also, his first win at Michigan as an underdog, as previously discussed on the board.
If "best" is defined as "most impressive," I'm hard pressed to find another one. Maybe the Citrus Bowl win over Florida.
September 20th, 2019 at 9:04 AM ^
Whatever happens to them down the road does not matter one iota.
They would have a top 15 road win on their resume.
September 20th, 2019 at 8:52 AM ^
Yes, technically speaking we could lose this and still go to Indy and win the championship.
That being said, a win tomorrow would without a single doubt be the biggest win of Harbaugh's tenure here at Michigan. Wisconsin is ranked higher than MSU was AND is a better team than the tire fire that was MSU's football team last year. Plus it's on the road, not at home.
Despite what anyone tries to say, getting this win would be the next step toward rebuilding Harbaugh's reputation when facing ranked opponents on the road. MSU last year was step 1. Plus, it would (I've got to imagine) be a huge confidence booster for the team. ALSO, it would finally break our losing streak in Madison....it's been since 2001! Crazy.
September 20th, 2019 at 9:14 AM ^
MSU was on the road. Harbaugh has never beat them in the big house.
September 20th, 2019 at 9:30 AM ^
Right. I wasn't trying to say that tomorrow is a road game and last year's MSU wasn't...though I can see how it would read like that. I was just trying to say that Wisconsin is ranked higher than MSU last year was, AND they're a better team, AND it's a road game (in and of itself) which adds to the "bigness" of the win.
My bad for stating that poorly in OP.
September 20th, 2019 at 8:56 AM ^
I think it depends in what context. It’s been built up even more bc of what UM has looked like so far versus media expectations, but I would say the 2016 osu game was more important. This is a huge game though and UM has a great opportunity to set the tone for the rest of the season.
September 20th, 2019 at 8:59 AM ^
This is a really stupid question for the Michigan Daily to ask.
If we lose, the mantra will be pounded in our heads again that Harbaugh cannot beat a ranked team on the road or as an underdog.
If we win, the point will be pounded in our heads that Wisconsin beat two teams ranked in the 100's to start the season and as such, should never have been ranked in the first place, so it's not a quality win.
Bottom line: Just win the game, fuck everybody else and GO BLUE.
September 20th, 2019 at 9:01 AM ^
To your 2nd point, 100 percent disagree.
I don't think there's any single way to discredit a win in Madison.
September 20th, 2019 at 9:16 AM ^
We'll see. Some sources would find a way. But we can't control the circumstances.
We just need to win. Especially after that Army game. Please.
September 20th, 2019 at 9:19 AM ^
The playoff committee would give their left leg to get Michigan in the playoff if they had the chance. They would not discredit a win.
September 20th, 2019 at 9:06 AM ^
If every other conference can claim wins against ranked opponents in the middle of the season when the rankings ALWAYS end up changing, then I don't see why we couldn't claim this as a ranked win.
September 20th, 2019 at 9:06 AM ^
It doesn't matter whether they win or lose.
It's how they look doing so.
We were promised Speed in Space.
Just give us that, and the result matters not.
September 20th, 2019 at 9:18 AM ^
Interesting "wins and loses are just a statistic" mentality there, comrade. Where have I heard this before?
September 20th, 2019 at 9:28 AM ^
I agree.
Slogging out another manball win because you have the better talent may erase September over reactions and meaningless made up rankings streaks, but showing the ability to execute a dynamic offense in a hostile environment when the pressure is on, that is meaningful! Even if the high variability ends up producing a loss.
September 20th, 2019 at 9:13 AM ^
Yup, until the next one.
September 20th, 2019 at 9:28 AM ^
The Best Win in the Harbaugh era would have been winning at Iowa in 2016. With that win even a loss to OSU would have put us in the BTC, and so the refs would have had incentive to at least be neutral in the OSU game.
Beating Wisconsin - knock on wood / if it were to happen and we are not expecting it will - would be a good win, but it isn't as important as winning the big games in the B1G East to win the Division and get to the BTC. Let's say we lost, and then went on to win the Division and played them again in November - this game would not really matter.
So no, not as important in my mind.
All that said - Go Blue! Beat Wisconsin!
September 20th, 2019 at 9:28 AM ^
I mean it would be a top 15 win on the road, has that happened since Harbaugh has been here? Not sure how it wouldn't qualify as the most impressive. Also it is really getting grating seeing people say this game doesn't matter, yes it may not be within the division but no east division champ has ever had more than one conference loss. Do we really want this team to have no margin for error after three games into the season?
September 20th, 2019 at 9:30 AM ^
Depends on how the game and season plays out, but I hate how people focus on the ranking of the team at the time they played and gloss over the team's final ranking. The 2016 team destroyed the Big Ten champ, #7 PSU, at home, but it gets glossed over because they played early in the season when PSU was unranked. Michigan also beat #9 Wisconsin and #17 Colorado that year.
But this would be the biggest road win for Harbaugh if Michigan were to win, of course assuming Wisconsin continues to play like they have during the first two weeks of the season.
September 20th, 2019 at 9:35 AM ^
Good point, I think the biggest knock on Harbaugh so far is the ability to win against a good opponent on the road. MSU last year is the biggest one and let's be honest that MSU team sucked.
September 20th, 2019 at 9:39 AM ^
Northwestern finished in #21 in final AP poll last year so that would be the biggest road win to date. But I don't consider Northwestern that hostile a place to play.
September 20th, 2019 at 11:08 AM ^
"Good" is 100% purely subjective and has the benefit of hindsight.
A team's ranking at the time of the matchup is a direct reflection of how well that team is currently playing. We beat MSU last year, on the road, when they were currently fielding the 24th best football team in the country based on 100% of the available evidence at the time.
That 100% counts as a quality win against a ranked opponent on the road, let alone the fact that it was a rivalry game.
September 20th, 2019 at 12:16 PM ^
Disagree, MSU did not have a functional passing game in that game. They were the exact same thing in that game they showed the rest of year, which was a bad team without a functional offense. And I would argue UM did not execute offensively at a high level in that game, otherwise it would have been even more lopsided. We have yet to see a UM team under Harbaugh put together a complete performance on both sides of the ball against a top team on the road. Doing so would absolutely help the national perception.
September 20th, 2019 at 12:59 PM ^
I'm not arguing we executed perfectly or even at a very high level in that game. Yes MSU's defense was very very good, but we still should have been able to muster more points that we did. That being said, it was still a very solid win against a ranked opponent on the road, and thus for the sake of the current context of the argument, it counts.
September 20th, 2019 at 11:05 AM ^
One of the merits of the "current ranking" argument however is that the ranking is (supposed to be) a reflection of the current state of the team and it's ability to play the game at a high level.
Take Penn State in 2016 for example. At the time we played them, they were NOT a great team. They had lost to Pitt two weeks before, and barely escaped from Temple the week immediately prior. They were 2-1 on the season and they weren't even ranked within the top 25 because, rightly, so far their performance didn't merit that of one of the best 25 teams in the country. They were unequivocally NOT playing quality football and the ranking reflected that.
However, several weeks AFTER we played and beat them, suddenly a switch flipped and their offense took off like a rocket and suddenly they were playing great football. Then their ranking started going up reflecting the increase in quality of play.
Did WE beat a team playing great football? No we didn't. We played a team that had been struggling, which is why they were not ranked when we played them.
For all the pros and cons of pre-season rankings and rankings before the playoff committee, etc. I think that this scenario is a good example of why a team's ranking at the time the game is played matters and should carry weight. It doesn't mean that the ranking is the ceiling of the team's overall potential for the season, just as a measuring stick for how good they currently are. And since it's impossible to look into the future and know what teams are going to be the best teams when all the dust settles, the only thing you can do is matchup against whoever the best opponent is in the moment.
September 20th, 2019 at 12:00 PM ^
PSU flipped a switch and their offense took off in 2016? Or did they feast on a bunch of average to below average teams outside of OSU before the B1G Championship Game? That same 2016 Pitt team finished 8-5 and beat the CFP National Champion Clemson team later that year, and Temple finished 10-4 and won the American. In retrospect, 2016 PSU was played tough by the teams that finished with winning records and higher final season rank. Some teams just have a down week, bad matchup, or injuries, but rarely does the "current" or week-to-week rank capture how well a team is playing at a certain point in a season. Quality of team is better measured by the performance throughout the season and final rank.
Michigan is ranked above Wisconsin despite the fact that Wisconsin has beaten their opponents 110-0 while Michigan needed 2OT to escape Army. How is that reflective of the "current state of the team?" Preseason rankings influence the current rank for a long time, and it takes a while for the media to figure out how good teams are. Should the 2016 Colorado team be considered an unranked team just because we played them early in the season before anyone figured out they were any good and ended the season winning the Pac-12 South and ranked #17? Or did they flip a switch like PSU that year?
September 20th, 2019 at 9:34 AM ^
Since this is nothing like going on the road to Columbus as faux favorites and walking into a legendary coaches retirement party, and that's thing that still lingers with everybody, I think they use it as catharsis.
Play loose, have fun, GoBlue!
September 20th, 2019 at 9:38 AM ^
We don't even know how good Wisconsin really is. I say it's impossible to say.
September 20th, 2019 at 9:41 AM ^
2016 has us demolishing the B1G champion by 30+ points. I'd say that's our best win yet.
September 20th, 2019 at 10:32 AM ^
The haters will just say that PSU team at the time was a depleted version of their team.
September 20th, 2019 at 6:59 PM ^
I remember people on this board arguing that it wasn’t as good a win because they had 2 or 3 starting linebackers out. Michigan fans have no problem devaluing a win in any given year
September 20th, 2019 at 9:51 AM ^
If the "Harbaugh Era" includes his entire college coaching career, then that 2007 Stanford victory over USC might be Harbaugh's upset-road-win highlight, but beating Wisconsin in Madison tomorrow might be even better for him, considering (a) the respective performances each team has had so far in 2019 and (b) the BPONE factor on MGoBlog.
September 20th, 2019 at 10:48 AM ^
Signature win for his career yes (vs Carol)... but nothing close to the gravity of this game at UM... YET!
The only game that would have held this much gravity would have been OSU (last year) while Urban was pounding away. I'd say that even a win this year against OSU wouldn't be as big as this; it will be explained away as a fluke win vs a first year HC.
September 20th, 2019 at 11:52 AM ^
Have you seen Ohio State lately ? You win that and all due respect it will not matter that Ryan Day is a first year head coach. Ohio State is much better then last years team that went 12-1
September 20th, 2019 at 11:10 AM ^
I think it's pretty safe to say that anyone on this board is only referring to MICHIGAN football games when they say the "Harbaugh Era". No one gives a rip about what he did at Stanford over 10 years ago. It's ancient history and has zero impact on Michigan football here and now, today.
September 20th, 2019 at 11:55 AM ^
"It's ancient history and has zero impact on Michigan football here and now, today."
Yet you'll want to include a game with Tim Drevno, Jedd Fisch and DJ Durkin calling every play 4 years ago. How is that relevant to "Michigan football here and now, today?"
Slippery slope, mitch. Watch yer step.
September 20th, 2019 at 1:56 PM ^
Lol well, obviously what happened in the past isn't necessarily a direct influence on this year's team, BUT it IS relevant because it's part of the product that Harbaugh has put on the field for the university of Michigan.
September 20th, 2019 at 9:52 AM ^
I mean are there many other options?
September 20th, 2019 at 10:14 AM ^
I think in terms of timeline and big picture... it could be!
The Team (TM)...played sub-par games against MTSU and Army, if they win this game I think it:
1) Inspires the team and fanbase
2) Huge confidence builder
*If they can keep up with a charged Wisconsin team and beat them at home, I think more good things will come. I do believe this game is clutch, and a season defining hurdle.
September 20th, 2019 at 10:36 AM ^
It looks big now, but it will only be seen that way if Wisconsin actually finishes the season with like 11 wins. If they go 9-4 or something, people will just say that we're more talented than Wisconsin and should win these games.
September 20th, 2019 at 10:53 AM ^
I disagree with this perspective of end of the season game results/record...
In college ball sights are set very high at the beginning of the season, and many teams lose faith as the season progresses, they become resigned to the fact that it's not a Conference Championship season or NC season. Right now, both teams have B1G and NC goals, they're playing harder to keep that dream alive.
Don't downplay this game... its' B1G!
September 20th, 2019 at 1:58 PM ^
I agree that it's a big game, but so was Wisconsin last year and yet there's a not insignificant percentage of Michigan fans giving no-one any credit for that whatsoever. There's not a few folks who still treat Wisconsin as the sort of opponent where if you lose it's a disaster and if you win it's no big deal unless they end up going to the Rose Bowl (which they probably won't if we beat them!)
September 20th, 2019 at 10:44 AM ^
Probably. Not necessarily the most meaningful, but I think it would be the most impressive. Wisconsin is arguably the most impressive B1G team thus far. Win as an underdog on the road against a very good Wisconsin team with a Heisman-caliber running back. Michigan has had a habit over the last decade of winning most of the games it should, and losing almost every single game it should lose. If not all of them. This would be a huge break in that trend, and would quiet most of the critics for the next few weeks.
September 20th, 2019 at 10:47 AM ^
Too early in the season to tell. Wisconsin seems impressive but they’ve played two cupcakes. We’ve looked unimpressive but it’s only an n of 2.
September 20th, 2019 at 11:07 AM ^
IMO- best win was OSU at home
oh wait refs said that was a first down
clearly wasn't
September 20th, 2019 at 11:31 AM ^
I might argue for the game where we dragged Penn State 49-10 and then they went on to win the Big Ten.
September 20th, 2019 at 11:37 AM ^
Yes because they are an underdog and expected to lose.
September 20th, 2019 at 11:42 AM ^
Let's Just Win Baby!!!!!
Go Blue!!!!!
September 20th, 2019 at 11:43 AM ^
I think some people are confusing must win, with this would be the best win of the Harbaugh era. UM has not yet beat a top 15 team under Harbaugh on the road, blowing out teams at home was nice, but to execute and not shoot yourself in the foot on the road against a good team is not something we have seen yet. Doesn't mean it is a must win, but it would be a huge win.
September 20th, 2019 at 12:01 PM ^
"But to execute on the road against a good team is not something we have seen yet."
Yes, we most certainly have. Your narrative is poorly thought out. Try again.
September 20th, 2019 at 12:07 PM ^
Who would you call a good team? Northwestern is a stretch at best and MSU was a bad football team last year. Honestly, 2015 Penn State is probably the best win and that team ended up 7-6. You certainly can't say UM executed well in games that they lost largely because of their own mistakes like OSU 2016 (refs also playing a part obviously).
September 20th, 2019 at 11:44 AM ^
Preseason prognostications said this was a down year for WI. Nebraska was the sexy pick in the West and many were buying tickets on the boat that Minnesota was rowing. I don't know if the outlook for WI has changed, yet. Sure, they've blown out their first 2 opponents, and rightly so, because they're both SEC-level cupcakes. This is more of a litmus test for WI than it is for Michigan.