Michigan beat writer Zach Shaw gives his rooting guide for this weekend's slate of games
24/7 Sports and CBS Sports Michigan beat writer Zack Shaw gives his rooting guide for Michigan fans this weekend in tweet:
"Rooting guide for the Michigan fans' CFP interests:
-Texas Tech over TCU (Noon, FOX)
-Tennessee over Georgia (3:30, CBS)
-LSU over Alabama (7, ESPN)
-Notre Dame over Clemson (7:30, NBC)
Maryland, Penn State and Iowa winning road games would also help SoS marginally."
https://twitter.com/_ZachShaw/status/1588535707853021186?t=8qW_TjUD47g4KxxRfw1RaA&s=19
Of course the adage "Just Win" applies.
But in the event of a narrow loss in Columbus, what outcomes today make Michigan's presence at the playoffs more likely?
November 5th, 2022 at 10:34 AM ^
I understand all of it except Tennessee over Georgia. I thought that was a don’t care situation, speaking in logic terms.
November 5th, 2022 at 10:39 AM ^
It maybe a we don't care, but it definitely is we need either to to crush the other. If it is 7 points or less, with a last minute drive, then you will hear that this games was a "Classic" and that both teams are 1a and 1b in the eesssss eeeeee seeeee, and thus they both should get into the CFP.
November 5th, 2022 at 10:52 AM ^
We also need to root for the team we think most likely to beat Bama in the SEC title game, to give them 2 losses. Given how close TN beat them ( at TN), I would rather take my chances with Georgia.
November 5th, 2022 at 11:44 AM ^
If LSU beats Bama today, it won't m... wait ... remembers Brian Kelly's record against Bama...never mind.
November 5th, 2022 at 11:31 AM ^
I've got UGA rolling big in this one. 21+
November 5th, 2022 at 4:59 PM ^
And you would be right
November 5th, 2022 at 12:05 PM ^
I've got GA -8.5, so I care.
November 5th, 2022 at 10:42 AM ^
There's a little bit of logic. Georgia is 3rd so they would drop farther with a loss than TN would, in theory.
Also, Georgia doesn't have much left on the schedule, so lose now, they don't get a chance to pad the resume say with a game against Bama in the SEC title game.
Surprising, Illinois is our saving grace as they will probably be 9-1 when we play and top 10. We basically end the season with 2 top ten games.
November 5th, 2022 at 10:56 AM ^
I agree with observation on Illinois.
I'm surprised that didn't make his list: Illinois over MSU.
But I guess that it's redundant in the sense that any Michigan fan will root for ANYONE over MSU...
November 5th, 2022 at 11:14 AM ^
I get your point. If Georgia loses, they’ll likely end the season with only one win against a ranked team (Oregon) but no way will anyone acknowledge that. I’d love to see the SOS comparisons between an 11-1 Georgia vs 11-1 OSU/Mich loser
November 5th, 2022 at 4:16 PM ^
Yes. Also, Georgia is at home where a loss would be more damaging to its chances.
November 5th, 2022 at 10:44 AM ^
Highly unlikely that either loses again, but it's essentially impossible for Tennessee to lose again whereas it isn't for Georgia
November 5th, 2022 at 10:45 AM ^
Great insight guys. Thanks!
November 5th, 2022 at 10:48 AM ^
Not sure any SEC game matters. SEC champ will go, even if it’s a 2 loss Bama. And can’t imagine they’d pass up a 1 loss Georgia or Tenn if the loss came in the SECCG (not to mention how they would they handle the loser of todays game).
November 5th, 2022 at 11:00 AM ^
Mr Shaw writes:
"For those asking about Georgia-Tennessee, here was my logic, from ESPN ... Tennessee chance to reach CFP with win: 83% Tennessee chance to reach CFP with loss: 56% Georgia chance to reach CFP with win: 78% Georgia chance to reach CFP with loss: 40% That's 123% cumulative v 134%"
https://twitter.com/_ZachShaw/status/1588540807132610561?s=20&t=zzHFCq1sMiPVr369JxL3kA
November 5th, 2022 at 12:01 PM ^
I think he means we’d rather see Tennessee’s defense in the playoffs rather than a Georgia team
November 5th, 2022 at 3:36 PM ^
I think as far as playoffs go it's a wash. The tiebreaker for me is Jadyn Davis crootin' so I lean Georgia. Tennessee needs to be taken down a notch.
November 5th, 2022 at 3:57 PM ^
I think the idea is Tennessee with the win over alabama is still possibly ahead of us if they lose close in georgia. If Georgia loses, there's almost no chance they stay ahead of us.
But yeah i mean honestly none of these games matter to us, if we win the Game we go to the CFP, if we don't we dont.
November 5th, 2022 at 10:52 AM ^
I personally don’t think all this hoopla about UCLA game being cancelled really matters. I don’t think they would have been an elite win by any means and we weren’t going to get a 2nd big ten team in unless some crazy shit happened given big tens performance in playoffs. There are 3 very good sec teams, Clemson, tcu, potentially Oregon to contend with all of whom get a knod over Michigan in my eyes even if we had beaten UCLA.
November 5th, 2022 at 10:54 AM ^
Correct. We could repeat this schedule in a 12 team playoff and would still get in.
November 5th, 2022 at 11:23 AM ^
So, you apparently buy into the SEC theory that it should automatically get three teams into the playoff. Because the way it sets up based on the playoff committee ranking, a close game between Georgia and Tennessee today will not eliminate either from consideration even if one is eliminated from the conference championship. That is why Alabama's No. 6 position is so significant. It can be dropped back into the hunt after the Michigan-Ohio State game, which is an elimination contest.
You can see the machinations at work to keep Alabama poised to leap back into the conversation because it will be kept close enough to remain a factor. Why is Illinois at 7-1 ranked No. 16 while LSU at 6-2 ranked No. 10? Alabama is playing a top 10 team tonight based on that.
I mean that's how you know the way the playoff system is stacked. For crying out loud, Penn State is ranked ahead of the Illini after losing its second game at home last week to Ohio State. I mean strong performance but it fell short of Illinois in terms of record. Just making the point that if Illinois runs the table, it has no shot of getting into the playoff based on where it stands now.
November 5th, 2022 at 10:58 AM ^
I agree that Tennessee Georgia game doesn’t matter as much. The loser still is going to take one of the four spots, as they will sit out the SEC CCG.
It sure is hard to come up with a scenario where only one SEC team makes it (LSU wins out and a one loss Michigan is seeded ahead of SEC conference champion?) but even then you still have one loss Tennessee and Georgia.
One loss Michigan needs KAOS outside the SEC. Clemson, TCU, Oregon, and possibly even USC need one more loss, because of our strength of schedule.
As many have said, just beat the Bucks!
November 5th, 2022 at 11:02 AM ^
Your rooting guide is Georgia winning out and South Carolina winning out. That is all you need.
No Tennessee
No Bama
No Clemson
November 5th, 2022 at 11:12 AM ^
A 1-loss Tennessee is absolutely waiting in the wings.
November 5th, 2022 at 11:39 AM ^
Unless they have an ugly loss to Georgia and Alabama loses to LSU... that would take a lot of shine off their SOR.
November 5th, 2022 at 11:53 AM ^
I truly don't think the committee would care.
November 5th, 2022 at 12:04 PM ^
Losing to South Carolina and Georgia would fix the Tennessee problem.
November 5th, 2022 at 1:39 PM ^
I think Tennessee is fraudulent
November 5th, 2022 at 11:00 AM ^
-Texas Tech over TCU (Noon, FOX)
-Tennessee over Georgia (3:30, CBS)
-LSU over Alabama (7, ESPN)
-Notre Dame over Clemson (7:30, NBC)
if this is your rooting guide go money line on TCU/Georgia/Bama and Clemson and prosper.
November 5th, 2022 at 11:06 AM ^
It seems to me that if Georgia CRUSHES Tennessee, suddenly a narrative emerges that UT wrestled with a Bama team that has struggled with A&M and others.
Maybe a convincing Georgia win could take BOTH UT and Bama down in the committee's eyes...?
November 5th, 2022 at 11:14 AM ^
No way the narrative changes negatively for an SEC team
November 5th, 2022 at 11:34 AM ^
SEC victories over SEC teams are like Highlander without the death. The winner gets all the loser’s cred but the loser is unharmed.
November 5th, 2022 at 12:39 PM ^
“There can be only one, or two, SEC teams in the playoff”
November 5th, 2022 at 11:11 AM ^
Rooting for less undefeated non-SEC teams is incredibly shortsighted. That's the exact kind of choas that allows all the SEC-fuckery we all hate. Right now it's setting up for potentially 3 1-loss SEC teams. If there's one undefeated team out there, that's exactly how you set the stage for all three of them to make the playoff. SEC chaos is good, chaos elsewhere is not a good sign.
November 5th, 2022 at 11:12 AM ^
He’s completely wrong about Georgia-Tennessee.
The best outcome for Michigan is Georgia winning by 40.
November 5th, 2022 at 11:14 AM ^
Honestly, a sizeable loss by the home team (Georgia in this instance) is possibly the better outcome.
November 5th, 2022 at 11:15 AM ^
Thank god he figured this out for us, I would have had no idea which teams’ losses would help Michigan.
November 5th, 2022 at 11:47 AM ^
No outcome favors Michigan. Michigan's fate is already factored. Win out and you're in. Lose a game and you're out. Doesn't matter whether Michigan and Ohio State are undefeated when they play, only one is getting in. Illinois is beside the point. SEC is getting at least two and maybe three.
The interesting argument will be how this is rationalized in early December. One loss doesn't eliminate any SEC team but it does eliminate every other conference team.
November 5th, 2022 at 12:29 PM ^
Yeah probably right. I'm hoping the situation results in better OOC games.
November 5th, 2022 at 11:20 AM ^
If Hooker has a great game against Georgia D, then he is more than likely to win the Heisman. I have a feeling Georgia D is going to throttle TN.
November 5th, 2022 at 11:41 AM ^
I totally agree. Georgia is better than Tennessee by maybe three touchdowns. Georgia has a dynamic defense that will give up some points but will ultimately close down Tennessee's passing game. I just don't understand this Tennessee love. Alabama isn't as strong as it has been in recent years and Georgia can beat anyone.
The thing for me is why there is so much push being made to ensure three SEC teams get into the playoff hunt. The rankings block any other conference from getting two teams in and position SEC to get up to three in, with a fourth, LSU, as a distant prospect.
The unmistakable belief is that all 1-loss teams in the SEC are better than any other conference team with similar record.
It will take an expanded playoff system with southern schools forced to play outside the sunbelt in the postseason to change perceptions. But until then, we are getting woefully biased politics in the endgame of the four-team playoff.
November 5th, 2022 at 8:00 PM ^
Which they did. I was rooting for a solid GA win...they made Hooker look more pedestrian. He is a nice, physically talented player but he cost TN big-time too.
Hoping for LSU to eliminate AL then LSU beat GA for the SEC crown. I see this as the best chance to whittle the SEC down to one entry-it would most certainly eliminate the possibility of three.
November 5th, 2022 at 11:31 AM ^
Rooting for Notre Dame makes me throw up in my mouth.
November 5th, 2022 at 11:40 AM ^
I have such a hard time rooting for ND. They've picked up two wins over really overrated teams (BYU and Syracuse) and if they beat Clemson it will help ensure Freeman keeps his class intact and continues recruiting at an elite level.
November 5th, 2022 at 12:17 PM ^
Syracuse loses back to back and they are ranked (2 point win over Virginia). Wake Forest loses to trash Louisville by 50 and they are ranked. The committee is putting in work for Clemson.
Maryland, Syracuse, Purdue, Wake, Minnesota, NC state (did they really score 9 against Syracuse?) would all be a toss up each time they played each other. Thing is only Wake, Syracuse and NC state are ranked. Very curious.
November 5th, 2022 at 11:45 AM ^
Short of dropping an unexpected game, The SEC is getting two teams in. Get used to that right now.
The winner of UGA-TENN is in. Whether they later win the SEC or lose to Bama, they're in. The loser is also in IF the winner wins The SEC. If they don't, Bama takes that spot.
It's not fair but a product of two decades of slobbering over SEC football and, honestly, The SEC usually proving to have two worthy of being in it. The conference is no better than the B1G on the whole but at the top it is usually stronger.
Michigan can't lose and get in without a few random losses from those around them. For instance, two of Tenn/Bama/UGA/OSU/Clem would have to implode and Michigan have only a single tough, close loss to OSU. Maybe Illinois if they win out until the B1GCG.
But two SEC teams are in barring a total meltdown.
November 5th, 2022 at 12:18 PM ^
Georgia and South Carolina win out. This is the way.
November 5th, 2022 at 11:45 AM ^
He left off a couple obvious ones:
Northwestern over Ohio
Illinois over Staee
November 5th, 2022 at 2:04 PM ^
I was going to comment on the OSU game....
actually, I believe the opposite...
the chances of Ohio losing another game before "the game" are slim....
so barring either team losing more than 1 game prior to meeting, the winner of the GAME will be in
however, if Michigan were to lose in a close game in Columbus, we'd have a much better shot at the CFP if that loss were to an undefeated OSU
I know it's splitting hairs... our #1 path involves beating OSU
but I actually believe it's in both OSU's and Michigan's interest that both teams are undefeated... I think there is still a chance that we both get in
(and yet I am still rooting for NW!!!!)
November 5th, 2022 at 11:56 AM ^
Go Dawgs …. fuck fat phil and peyton… Go Clemson… fuck notre shame now before and forever more …. GO BLUE !!!!!