Michigan Basketball Reality.
Today sucks. Mitch was a fan favorite and is irreplaceable on next year's roster. Beilein has coached and developed himself into this unfair predicament of having to start over every couple of years. He is producing really good talent at a higher and more effecient rate than nearly every other coach in America. Two 3 star 1st rounders last season and and Three 4 stars that will be selected this season. Thats the entire starting 5 from last year's Final Four.
We have now reached our new REALITY as a basketball program. We are firmly in Contender Mode and have become an NBA factory. We can no longer EXPECT kids to stay 3 and 4 years. If we are going to win a title under Beilein....it will be with squads similar to the outfits we have put out the last 2 years. 1 or 2 upperclassmen in rotation with a boatload of talented freshman and sophomores. This is simply here to stay. With that being said....let us take a gander at the 2014-2016 prospective squads. This will be fun......kind of.
2014/2015
Walton (so) Spike (jr)
Levert (jr) MAAR (fr) ??Hatch (fr)
Irvin (so) ??.....Dawkins (fr)
Chatman (fr) Biefeldt (jr)/Wilson (fr)
Donnal (fr) Doyle (fr)
notes: This team features GREAT perimeter potential. If Chatman is the real deal and Wilson is physically ready to contribute we could be in a great spot 1-4. Donnal is rumored to be very good and Doyle looks the part of a reliable B1G post presence. The question is what returns will we get on these investments in year 1?
Predictions: Top 5 B1G finish and Sweet 16. Caris runner-up to Kaminsky or Pettway for B1G POY. Caris enters draft as a lottery guy. Irvin flirts with NBA and then comes back in a mini-miracle by Michigan standards lol.
2015/2016
Walton (jr) SPike (sr) or Brunson (fr) *Spike likely transfers if we get Brunson
Irvin (jr) MAAR (so) / Freshman recruit..
Chatman (so) ??Dawkins (fr)/ Freshman recruit
Donnal (so) Wilson (so)
Doyle (so) ?????
***with a Cole addition.
Walton (jr) Brunson (fr)/ Spike (sr)
Irvin (jr) MAAR (so)
Cole (so) ??Dawkins (so)/ Freshman recruit
Chatman (so) Wilson (so)
Donnal (so) Doyle (so)
Predictions: Top 2 B1G finish. Legitimate Title Contender/ Final 4. This squad features depth at 4 positions with SF still up in the air. No freshman in the starting lineup and seasoned bigs all over 6ft8. We would be one of the tallest and most athletic teams in college basketball with this squad. Sprinkle in some Austin Hatch and our chi would on some CUDI level of un****withable.
BOTTOM LINE: I think this upcoming season will be a bit of a roller coaster. We have some very dangerous potential on the wings but we are SUPER green down low. Too much is predicated on unknowns at this point to properly gauge our potential. I don't think we are in danger of missing the Tournament but it's hard to see us going 30-8 again. We are in a very peculiar place nowadays. We churn out NBA talent at an astonishing rate...maybe even superior to that of the Blue Bloods. We still however, do not get the recruits that the Blue Bloods get and this makes our plight very difficult in terms of contending every year. Eventually the mass exodus(es) will catch up. We live in a fairly harsh REALITY of today's college basketball. John Beilein has his work cut out for him, but i think he can pull off a successful season next year and be special again in 2015/2016. Go Blue!
I mean yeah it sucks that Mitch is going to the NBA, and we may take a small step back next year, but Beilein has proved that he's a great coach. We're gonna be fine. I'm not worried about Basketball.
Worried in what sense? I don't think anyone doubts Beilein or even doubts we will be a very good team next year that should finish at least 2nd in the conference. Having said that, we seemed ripe for an NC run next year with Mitch and now it looks like we will surely have a weakness down low if we get to the late stages of the tourney. Yes, we are spoiled.
The last few years someone has stepped up and became a more complete player than they where the year before. Early enteries into the NBA are the name of the game in college basketball. I mean who thought Nik stauskas would turn out like he did this last year or Trey would be so ridiculous the year before. Someone will take the reins and surprise us all.
Let's face it we never been a great rebounding or defensive team. We'll be fine next year our coaching staff working with guard devolopement is amazing. I look for Walton and Levert to have huge years next year
April 26th, 2014 at 10:09 AM ^
April 26th, 2014 at 12:26 PM ^
LIKE to capitalize RANDOMLY every few words TO look more EMPHATIC.
gonna spike.
Not only do I agree that he will play out his career at Michigan, I also think he will start his coaching career as a grad assistant in Ann Arbor.
I think a Sweet 16 finish next season is being a little overly optimistic. Reality is were expecting a significant increase in productivity and ability from both Walton and Irvin. We need that to be an NCAA team. If they arent capable creators and reliable 2nd & 3rd scoring options were in trouble. Relying on two Freshman to be our post presence is going to be reminiscent of a few years ago where all sorts of teams, not just the MSU/Kentucky's of the world, abuse us on the glass.
The depth is also pretty thin with all of the players we have lost. We look pretty solid with our starting guards and wings but outside of Spike there are huge and glaring question marks coming off the bench. A problem with having no real big man starters is you also have no real big man depth. Bielfeldt was a late in the process 'sleeper' that isnt going to come to fruition. Against any real competition were going to be at a disadvantage with him on the court. Donnal needs to be the real deal and Doyle needs to be capable of legitimate production right away for us to have a shot at the Sweet 16.
Are you saying you don't expect a significant improvement in Walton and Irvin? I certainly do. I could even see Irvin blowing up.
Looking at the roster, yes a sweet 16 seems optimistic. Looking at Beilein's track record, and doing more with even less than we have now, and given that he should finally have some long-range big men at his disposal, sweet 16 sounds right to me.
Yeah. Given the coaching level and the known roster (Caris, Walton Jr., Irvin, Spike) plus the potential on the 'unkown' roster (Chatman, Donnal, et al) I really think Sweet 16 should be the expectation. Could we fall short? Sure. Duke, even without playing defense, should have made it further than they did this year (why do kids keep going there, anyway?). But Sweet 16 is a reasonable expectation, I think.
One thing that people are forgetting is that basketball is a guard's game. Big men rely on guards far more than guards rely on big men. We'd be in much, much worse shape if our perimeter and interior prospects were reversed.
April 26th, 2014 at 10:14 AM ^
I sure wouldn't say we're a lock for the Sweet 16. But I think we're one of the 16 best programs in the country, and while that doesn't mean every year you're going to finish in the top 16, I still think we have enough talent to make it happen in 2015.
Other teams in our league will improve, but not as much as we will, I think. Miles, Matta, baby Pitino - until they prove it, I'm going with the evidence that says Beilein is almost an order of magnitude better at developing talent. Maybe I'm just wearing my maize-colored glasses, but I don't think so.
The most important positions in college basketball are coach and point guard. I like us at those positions.
Meh. You complain about everything anyway. Even your username is a complaint.
To start creating content that doesn't suck and isn't too long. The clock starts now, buddy boy.
April 26th, 2014 at 10:06 AM ^
He is not your buddy, pal.
April 26th, 2014 at 12:12 PM ^
I think the main issue is at the 5. It is just hard to get a NBA prospect at the 5 period - outside of Duke, UNC, Kansas, and Kentucky esp in this era where every elite 5 goes to five schools. I was reading an article a few days ago and every top C and PF (6'10ish who could say could be a center in a pinch) went to those schools + UCLA + Maryland in the last recruiting class. So Mitch was an outlier - we are probably going to have more of Morgan types with more outside shooting (stretch 5s if you will) go forward... although I would like to find an above the rim shot blocking type in one of our classes soon.
I think we can continue to find NBA type guards and wings - Blackmon for example already looks from the likes of it as most a 2 and done. That was a kid that we were heavy on and we are trying for similar kids in the next class as well.
April 26th, 2014 at 11:31 AM ^
Of course it's an unreasonable expectation going forward, but saying Beilein is just a decent recruiter is unreasonable too.
Spike is going to transfer lol? Damn another kid whose parents and brother are in his year about his NBA potential for 3 years. Billy Donovan - prepare for Spike-alicious!
On a serious note I think Donnal is stuck at 5 for 2 years not 1, no matter who else is on the roster. Doyle is going to develop slowly - most big men (5) do. Look at Mitch who at one time was #2 overall. He was meh for most of his freshman year until the last third as he found his way - and this was a very high level recruit compared to Doyle. And Mitch came to UM older than Doyle.
You have to put Doyle in the Morgan/Horford camp with upside in terms of outside shooting (he will have way more range). BOTH those guys benefited from a redshirt - something Doyle won't have the luxury to do. So I have him at 8-10 minutes out of need next year (if we had Mitch he'd redshirt instead) and then he can probably pull off 20 minutes as a SO. (Horford did 7 and Morgan 24 in their 2nd year with the team)
Donnal will be doing 22 minutes or so at 5 as a FR (a bit more if he can stay out of foul trouble) and maybe 20 minutes as a SO (and then he can do 5-6 at the 4 as a SO). There are just no other 5s on the roster unless you want to put a 200 lb DJ Wilson out there.
5's take time to develop - everyone is very high on Donnal with the benefit of a full year of RS and he is still only going to play 22-24 minutes or so as a RS FR so expecting Doyle to do anything more as a SO is unrealistic. They will be our 5s together for 2 years as we are very short of the center types.
April 26th, 2014 at 10:08 AM ^
p.s. Cole would be a jr if he comes here as he has already 2 years under his belt.
If Cole comes and Irvin stays we will have nice higher level depth in 2015-2016. If Cole comes and Irvin goes, it will take a hit as it will be more of the 2nd level recruits playing a lot. If Cole doesnt come and Irvin goes, well then you really rely on MAAR, Dawkins* (if he comes), and freshmen again in 2015-2016.
Everyone thought Nik was at minimum a 3 year player 12 months ago when he was a 4th option who did nearly nothing except vs UF in the NCAA. Overall he had a good freshman season but nothing that would have led to lottery pick status in a year... in fact there were threads on here on IF he was even a NBA player at any point...
A year later he is a potential lottery pick.
People forget this was going to be the GR3 and Mitch show coming into th year ... with Nik as wheel 3. (Caris was just a guy coming off a 2 ppg season who we thought was going to improve some but be a defensive specialist who could develop into a guy who could get us 8 ppg) Things change fast around here.
Irvin has the potential to explode next year and is a 6'6 sharpshooter who had the 2nd best outside shot on the team. If he gets more of a handle and develops a mid range game and can get to the rim a bit, and goes to say 13-14 ppg he will have THJ stats and he was a late first. Don't count anything out of probability - in fact I'd put Irvin in the draft at 40/60 right now in 12 months. He will be option #2 in a very friendly offense.
being Nik.
Nik can't just be plugged into some formula.
Nik is a gym rat on the Pistol Pete level, a very, very rare occurrence where forget that a guy wants to spend every waking minute on basketball - a Chris Mullen or a Nik Stauskus desperately wants to be doing basketball every last minute of every day. Trey Burke has a similar level of desire - it's no knock on guys who can't quite reach that height - it's entirely abnormal.
There's working hard, though, and there's working like an insane person. Maybe Zak can put in the crazy work, but don't forget that a lot of what made Nik into Nik is that he had been putting in the crazy work since he was out of diapers.
I hope people appreciate what a rare thing we just witnessed. I'd be way beyond thrilled if Zak pulled off something similar, but that mountain is damn high and steeeep.
April 26th, 2014 at 11:36 AM ^
that's one of the stranger replies I've seen around here.
And Caris?
Irvin is much farther along as of today then Caris was last April. He has a lot less of a jump to make to get to "Caris level" which is right behind Nik and a potential draft choice.
Look Irvin basically did one thing last year - but the hardest thing in bball... get the damn ball in the hoop on a consistent basis. The NBA is lacking shooters...Zak was second best on the team from outside (42.5% from 3), behind a potential lottery pick. The things he needs to improve on are the non shooting things so he has a leg up on most guys who need to improve on shooting. He already has a NBA body - something both Nik and Caris lacked their freshman years. If he is able to drive the lane on a consistent basis next year he is the total package of inside and outside SF and the comments begin about "well if he comes back for his junior year he hurts draft stock, and the NBA likes young guys, and potential and blah blah." UM fans know all these words already when it comes to the draft.
My point had little to do with Nik and more about expectations - no one though Nik was going anywhere 12 months ago and SOME questioned if he'd even be in the NBA after 4 years. Things change fast. If we had this conversation 12 months ago as we projected out 2 years and I said we cannot assume Nik won't be in the NBA in 12 months people would be like wtf dude!
We cannot assume anything at this point - for all I know Chatman walks in and averages 15 pts and 4 rbs and suddenly he is a 1st rounder. It is not a stretch to say Irvin has a significant chance to be a NBA pick in a weak draft as a 6'6 SF in an offense built for him, with a great coaching staff behind him and his own effort.
April 26th, 2014 at 10:24 AM ^
April 26th, 2014 at 12:00 PM ^
Of course Zak has more evolved skills than Caris did at that point, as it was always known Caris was raw with an extremely high ceiling. Caris has a substantially higher athletic ceiling, though, than Zak. They are just a bad comparison - they are on different tracks. I'd love to see Zak develop, but I'm taking a wait and see approach. I was certain Nik was going to make a significant jump this year (he exceeded my high expectations) - I'm hopeful Zak will take a big leap, but I'm far from certain.
Chatman looks to have some nice skills, but physically, he is way far away from not only being ready for the NBA, but from showing the NBA what kind of athlete he might even be able to become. Any NBA future rests a great deal on his ability to transform his body, and I honestly have no idea waht he's going to look like by the season tip-off or by his sophomore year. He is way more in the category of highly unlikely than the category of "this is possible."
My point is that people take this tiny sample set and think they can just chart from there. They are not appreciating the uniqueness of Nik and of Trey. Theirs are extraordinary circumstances, as reflected by them winning BT POY and NPOY, respectively. The NBA only wants you early if you display off the charts development or have a freakish physical attribute they value.
I expect our staff to continue to develop these guys at a rate that exceeds a normal rate of development - I think it's a bit underrating what Nik and Trey brought to the table to expect that kind of development as some sort of matter of course.
And btw, I would have been glad to make a wager on Nik's NBA potential. Those of us who had followed him from well before he landed on campus had extremely high hopes for Nik. "Not just a shooter" wasn't remotely a surprise to us.
So, yes, things can change. That's a fairly safe statement. But no, I do not expect them to change as dramtically as they did in, say, Nik's case, for all the reasons I've prattled on endlessly about.
April 26th, 2014 at 10:00 AM ^
April 26th, 2014 at 11:35 AM ^
and then there are guys like Nik (and Trey).
April 26th, 2014 at 12:27 PM ^
April 26th, 2014 at 12:17 PM ^