MGoBlog Predictions Thread: A Study in Humility (and Correctness)
A few days ago, I posted this about predictions from our friends at 11 Warriors. Short summary: they were way off, and no Buckeye picked Michigan (the lone pro-Michigan prognosticator turned out to be a Michigan fan).
Today, I summarize predictions from our own prediction thread.
There were a total of 69 predictions where I could (more or less) tell which way the predictor was predicting. Oddly enough, the hope was strong: 41 for Michigan winning, 28 for OSU (though about 4-5 of those include two picks, one from the "head" and one from the "heart"; I included both).
Of those that picked for Michigan:
- 34 picked <=10 point win
- 1 picked >10 and <20 point win
- 6 picked >=20 point win
The average score (across all of these): 40-31 UM
The loss predictions were more grim:
- 2 picked <= 10 point win for OSU
- 11 picked >10 and <=20
- 9 picked >20 and <=30
- 6 picked >30 point win
The average score (across all of these): 48-26 OSU
The closest (by margin): 34-20. This was by Swayze Howell Sheen (yours truly)! Thus, I congratulate myself.
But user Bo Harbaugh may have predicted the game best:
"Shock and awe.
It's cold as balls and just wet enough that they can't throw effectively.
We have some crazy defensive schemes and blitzes we haven't shown all year.
Stroud looks like a freshman.
It's one of those crazy games where we play out of our minds and the offense clicks, running the ball for 7-8 yards a pop, and everything we throw seems to work. Offensive line dominates.
We're due. Harbaugh is due. It's time."
All of that, with a prediction of 45-20 (which it easily could have been). Thus, Bo Harbaugh, you win the thread. Congratulations!
There is no real prize. But here, my friend, is your reward: OH JAH BO!
Appendix:
- Hail Yea claimed that if we won, he/she would "run around naked". We await.
- Durham Blue could sense what was up: "A storm is brewing"
- greymarch also had an inkling: "OSU cant keep Hutchison from Stroud the whole game."
- Buckeye Chuck predicted "overtaking ass", which goes without saying.
- Don predicted an OSU route and that "Our DL won't get any sacks". How wrong you were Don, how wrong you were.
December 2nd, 2021 at 11:28 PM ^
Beat Iowa
December 2nd, 2021 at 11:30 PM ^
Buckeye Chuck predicted "overtaking ass", what are they, my wife after a number of years of marriage?
Buckeye Chuck predicted "overtaking ass" what are they Mandy Muse, whoever that is?
December 3rd, 2021 at 1:28 AM ^
- Don predicted an OSU route and that "Our DL won't get any sacks". How wrong you were Don, how wrong you were.
Don Brown.. you bitter bastard.
December 3rd, 2021 at 1:53 AM ^
Does anyone think there is some juju to predicting a U of M win? If I put down UM 42 OSU 27 somehow it will put the powers that be to work against that happening. Its strange but just feel like it will jinx us.
December 3rd, 2021 at 2:42 AM ^
Been doing this for the past 20 years. I almost literally never predict a UM win out of superstition. That said, I sincerely didn't think UM would beat OSU. My general prediction - which I dropped to a single score loss a minute before kickoff - was sincere. Include me in with 99% of the rest of America.
Yet, this is one of the lamest things the Michigan fanbase does. We can't just be happy. A good thing happens? Even surrounded by 400 layers of shit in every direction for a decade? Cool, let's celebrate for 5 minutes and then make a list of everyone that didn't think the good thing would happen! Fun! See, I'm a better fan than these people on the list! Eat crow and face the wall, phonies!
No, it's the most Chinese, Soviet, DPRK thing possible and it's creepy as f*ck. Always creeps me out when I see these posts or the even worse ones where people put themselves on a list, lol. Not even a "awesome, I'm so happy to be wrong about that" but these self-flagellating posts about how they lost faith and owe it to the board to eat crow or whatever the f*ck stupid thing they think of. (However, the actual lemon eating that one time was kind of clever and funny as it involved actual, idiotic action with a sense of self-awareness to it)
But I agree in that I'd have still "picked" OSU had I sincerely thought UM would win. I also sit in the same place if they're playing well, etc. I'm dumb like that.
December 3rd, 2021 at 6:18 AM ^
When you believe in things that you don’t understand, then you suffer.
December 3rd, 2021 at 9:04 AM ^
There has been a select group of people on here that have been crapping on this team since the end of last season. As the year went on, some saw the light and went back to being fans, but others kept up with the "this won't beat Ohio State", "should have just gotten rid of Harbaugh", "we won't be able to pass when we need to", "younger staff doesn't seem to be making a recruiting impact" etc. Some are still doing it now. They know who they are. I have no problem with them being called out, but personally I was too happy last weekend to care if the people who have been doubting this team all year decided to celebrate a great win.
December 3rd, 2021 at 10:39 AM ^
LeCheezus,
are any of the worst offenders you speak of being called out in the OP here? I will gladly own up to thinking M needed to move on from Harbaugh. While certainly a position one can disagree with, it isn’t crazy to think Harbaugh was similar enough to Bump Elliot or John Cooper that M would better off pursuing a Tressel or Bo.
that said, the recruiting takes and staff criticisms are mostly unwarranted at this point.
December 3rd, 2021 at 11:56 AM ^
I don't keep a spreadsheet or anything, but I spend enough time here (sadly? haha) that when I see some usernames or their pictures I pretty much know what they are going to say based on the thread topic. Usernames might be a type of gun, working out, a previous OSU basketball coach, and blue in a southern state are some of the most consistent.
December 3rd, 2021 at 2:37 PM ^
No, you're all being weirdos. This is weird and creepy. Please keep downvoting so I can know who the fn weirdos on this site are and avoid you all as much as possible. Not even kidding. You're worse than everyone I see on that list.
December 3rd, 2021 at 11:11 AM ^
I don't think you'd see folks so free with their opinions in Russia (Soviets is not a thing anymore) China, and most especially the DPRK. Democratic Peoples Republic my Ass!
December 3rd, 2021 at 2:58 AM ^
Don with the rout route, eh?
December 3rd, 2021 at 7:30 AM ^
"rout route"?!
That's rooty-tootin'.
Beat Iowa. Go Blue!
December 3rd, 2021 at 7:41 AM ^
Just win. Its going to be close, particularly in the first half.
December 3rd, 2021 at 8:23 AM ^
It will definitely be close at the beginning.
December 3rd, 2021 at 7:54 AM ^
Thanks for the shout out Swayzee.
Stroud played better than I thought and those receivers are incredible - better than advertised.
Still, Stroud got away with a couple - a dropped interception at the end of the first half and a recovered fumble at the mesh point in the 2nd half.
So would you say that Hail Yea owes us some Dirty Dancing?
December 3rd, 2021 at 8:53 AM ^
I predicted that Michigan would be close at half (I don’t remember if I specified this but I expected to be trailing but close) with OSU pulling away by mid-3Q. I honestly don’t recall if my prediction was high teens or low twenties, but it was a multi-score loss.
I did not predict that Michigan would have a narrow lead at half. I did not predict that the Ohio State players would trudge up the tunnel with dazed expressions on their faces, glancing around as they heard the roaring of the Michigan Football Team hungrily following them up the tunnel. I did not predict that Gattis would continue to deploy brilliant play calls throughout the second half, or that the OL would manhandle the OSU defense, or that Hassan Haskins would score 5 TDs, or that Aidan and Ojabo would do whatever they want on the outside. I did not predict that Michigan would score on every meaningful second half possession, or that Mike Macdonald’s defense would never give up a back-breaking big play, or force Ohio State to earn every yard and point. I did not predict that Harbaugh’s conviction that this team could win by emphasizing the run with smart passing would not only be reasonable but brilliant.
I did not predict that Michigan would beat Ohio State.
I’ve rarely so enjoyed being wrong.
December 3rd, 2021 at 9:43 AM ^
I admit that I didn’t even read that thread (and I read every thread) because my defense mechanisms kept telling me there was a less than 10% chance. My defense mechanisms are so strong that I am still in a weird state of did that really happen?
I remember 1997 so clearly but very little in between.
December 3rd, 2021 at 10:53 AM ^
Isn’t one of you supposed to eat a lemon out of the ass of another of you?
We await.
December 3rd, 2021 at 11:46 AM ^
I'm good if they don't deliver on that promise.
December 3rd, 2021 at 11:46 AM ^
I'll GLADLY eat crow on this one.
But hey, my "head" prediction, simply in terms of the score, wasn't so far off... ;-)
Head:
Ohio State - 41
Michigan - 24
Heart:
Michigan - 38
Ohio State - 35
December 3rd, 2021 at 12:35 PM ^
I said we would win 42-27 and predicted we would out rush them 297-64. But I didn’t put in the prediction thread. Or tell anyone else. So you will just have to trust me.