Looking Ahead: Hoop Talk
Very excited for the next two Michigan men's basketball games, and I thought I might initiate some conversation about them. Here are a couple of questions (and a few observations); feel free to add yours.
1) What are the personnel challenges with Minnesota, and will a rested Michigan team prevail there in your opinion?
(Jordan Murphy is a fun player, but Charles Matthews!)
2) How does MSU stack up against us without Ward?
(My summary would be that not having to even think about doubling Ward replacement Tillman will be huge; not having Ward running the floor for them, as he does superbly, will be big, too; we can blanket MSU's three-point shooters; and that with so much weight on MSU guard Winston's shoulders, Michigan really could harrass them into a season-low point total on D.)
3) Do we get John Beilein his first outright Big Ten title? Do we secure a one seed for the Big Dance?
This is a bunch of stuff (and yeah, that last one is two questions). But maybe just yakking can be fun. Don't think I'm stepping on the toes of the podcast, but let me know if anyone thinks that's the case.
February 18th, 2019 at 10:48 AM ^
Ummm...2013-14?
February 18th, 2019 at 11:16 AM ^
My bad. Looked it up before I posted, but missed it. Going to stop board posts until I get a dang edit function so I can avoid making a fool of myself.
February 18th, 2019 at 10:51 AM ^
We really need to pick two vs. MSU. Winning one on the road will put our other losses into the context of road big-10 flukes.
February 18th, 2019 at 11:51 AM ^
A sweep is really hard to do. They're the other top team in the conference, they're talented, they play well together.
I would dismiss it out of hand, except I think we actually match up really well. Winston carries most of the offensive load for them, and Simpson handles him really well. They excel at transition, but Michigan seldom turns the ball over. Ward's absence reduces the pressure on Teske, which I think he'd handle well anyway, and we have Matthews free to jail whomever we want to shut down.
It sounds like a better matchup than a lot of B1G teams to be honest.*
*All of this confidence will go out the window when the ball is tipped.
February 18th, 2019 at 12:31 PM ^
This is a good summary. Winston is a fantastic player, but he seems like he doesn't even try some of the things he does against others vs M, because he knows Simpson will shut it down.
February 18th, 2019 at 1:00 PM ^
Sure, MSU may be talented and all that, even without Ward, but I noticed today that Izzo's strategy for explaining-away losses is already slowly being instituted. Indeed, his team seems to have been given the memo during the second half of yesterday's win over OSU. Exhibit A - Kenny Goins:
"Everyone keeps asking about that weird lineup,” said Goins, a 6-7 senior. “I don’t even know who was out there. All I know is, it was pretty much four-and-a-half white guys.”
Yes indeed, folks, the "weird guys" defense - first mastered by Izzo in 2014 with his assertion that "we had guys not catching the ball, but I've got some weird guys in there right now" - seems to be making an appearance again. However, this one is peppered with a subtle hint of racism as well, as it is now "weird white guys"... :-D
February 18th, 2019 at 2:20 PM ^
Yeah, I'm fairly confident that Beilein coached teams never count the particular race of teammates on the floor.
February 18th, 2019 at 2:29 PM ^
Yeah, that was an odd comment.
February 18th, 2019 at 12:48 PM ^
I don't think we necessarily need to sweep MSU to win the big ten, but we would have to sweep Maryland instead. I honestly like our chances better against a MSU team missing Ward, especially since we've had their number with their leading core. Winning at Maryland will be super tough with their two bigs and a shitty road whistle
February 18th, 2019 at 10:59 AM ^
1. @Minnesota will be tough. They will definitely try and get us in foul trouble.
2. A Ward-less MSU is much less scary than with him (duh), but they will still be very physical and play us tough. The game at Crisler now has the potential to be a 10+ point game if we hit our outside shots.
3. Unfortunately no, I don’t see it this year. I still love him to death though.
February 18th, 2019 at 10:59 AM ^
For point #3. We already accomplished the first part. And we won the conference outright by like 3 games.
February 18th, 2019 at 11:00 AM ^
Do we get John Beilein his first outright Big Ten title?
Dude . . . it's been done already. Remember that Stauskas guy? "Win the Game"?
February 18th, 2019 at 11:01 AM ^
Tillman does not have the low post game like Ward and should not be able to score on Teske unless maybe he takes him away from the basket but I would not be to concerned about that.
Z shuts down and harasses Winston. McQuaid could be the key because MSU will need to score. Somebody needs to chase him all over.
Playing in Minnesota scares me especially if they let Murphy play Lebron bully ball to the basket.
February 18th, 2019 at 11:08 AM ^
1. I don't know, but I feel like Minnesota wants to play this game in the paint. We seem to have struggled rebounding the last couple games (by my eyes, haven't looked it up). Obviously have to keep Teske on the floor. Hopefully we can avoid some early whistles.
2. I'm cautiously optimistic about MSU (fingers are crossed, no jinx). If Simpson does to Winston what we've seen him do, I don't see who among MSU is going to give us trouble. Tillman on Teske? McQuaid against Matthews? Goins? Ahrens?
3. Barring a huge win streak to close the season, I think a 1-seed is off the table. That Penn State loss is ugly.
February 18th, 2019 at 11:52 AM ^
Penn St is no. 58 in Kenpom and no. 70 in NET rankings. It was unfortunate, but is wasn't a horrible loss. There are no easy road games in the B1G this year.
February 18th, 2019 at 1:22 PM ^
I'm aware. PSU is 2-13 in the conference. I don't care how you want to explain it, the others in contention don't have anything close to that bad of a loss. You dont have to sell me. You have to sell the people looking at this from a distance. Given even records, that's probably a blemish that keeps us a 2.
February 18th, 2019 at 2:06 PM ^
Duke lost to Syracuse (49-NET/43-Kenpom) at home.
Houston lost to Temple (53-NET/75-Kempom) and as you know, MSU lost to Indiana (55-NET/47-Kenpom) at home and Illinois (80-NET/66-Kenpom)
February 18th, 2019 at 2:35 PM ^
Wow. That's great man.
I'm sure everybody will now consider Penn State 9-16 (2-12 B1G) and Syracuse 17-8 (8-4 ACC) to be equal because... well, I actually don't know why they would, but you seem passionate about it. Go get 'em.
February 18th, 2019 at 3:58 PM ^
Thanks, Reg. It's my life's work.
February 18th, 2019 at 5:17 PM ^
Losing to the worst team in the B10 is a horrible loss. Put down the analytics.
February 18th, 2019 at 1:03 PM ^
If we can take care of business with maybe only one loss the rest of the way (ideally at MSU or at Maryland) and a BTT that gets us at least to the finals, we should have a really good case for a 1 seed. Losses at Iowa, Wisconsin, and PSU are better than Kentucky's losses to Alabama and Seton Hall (neutral floor). What would really help is to have Villanova and North Carolina win their conferences. A nonconference schedule that includes two dominant wins over the champions of two of the biggest conferences would do wonders for our resume. I usually avoid the UNC Duke game like the plague, but we have a pretty strong rooting interest this year
February 18th, 2019 at 11:11 AM ^
I was going to start a separate thread for this but I think it will fit well in here. Curious what teams folks would prefer we avoid in the tournament? I've been watching a ton of hoops lately and looked at a few Bracketology updates today. Team's I'd prefer to avoid:
- St. John's (super streaky team that has taken Marquette down twice and just beat Villanova)
- Syracuse (I feel like their zone would give us fits but I'd love to send Tyus Battle packing with a loss)
- LSU (Crazy talented. Any team that can win at Rupp should scare folks)
- Houston (They're going to be out for blood with last year's buzzer beater)
I truly believe we could beat anybody this year but with our offensive woes, it's really going to come down to matchup. I'd love to hear other's thoughts on this.
February 18th, 2019 at 11:32 AM ^
Good list. I'd add in Seton Hall as a tough potential 7 to 11 seed match up in the 2nd round.
One of the nations best point guards in Myles Powell with an effective slasher Myles Cale in the back court.
Have some big who can play and are well coached.
Beat Kentucky and won at Maryland in the non conference.
February 18th, 2019 at 11:38 AM ^
Good call on Seton Hall. Caught a bit of that game with Creighton yesterday. Powell is a beast! If CBS's bracket were to be it, they'd have a shot at Tennessee in the round of 32. Would be a great game!
They have MSU playing Montana in the opening round and then the winner of Auburn and St. John's lol good luck with that, little brother. We'd play Northern Kentucky with a match-up with the winner of Wofford and Ole Miss in the round of 32. I haven't followed Wofford much but I think I heard they have a shot at getting an At-Large. Ole Miss doesn't scare me at all.
February 18th, 2019 at 11:42 AM ^
Ole Miss' coach is Kermit Davis who coached our beloved Mid Tenn St team over Sparty
February 18th, 2019 at 1:34 PM ^
Wofford has the best shooter in the country in Fletcher Magee. He's a career over 40% 3 pt shooter and Wofford will utilize him like Rip Hamilton in which they'll try to move him around to free him up for a 3 pt shot. If he gets hot, Wofford can pull off an upset.
February 18th, 2019 at 1:05 PM ^
I would love to play Houston again. Kelvin Sampson is a piece of shit coach and it would be nice for once to sit through a broadcast where they keep showing the highlight of OUR miracle win and not the other team's...
February 18th, 2019 at 3:59 PM ^
I know he did some unsavory stuff at Oklahoma, but he had a ton of strong teams there, went to Houston--hardly a big-time hoops venue--and has succeeded there. What makes you think he's such an awful coach?
February 18th, 2019 at 11:12 AM ^
We've got Jekyll & Hyde syndrome. We have all the tools, they just can't all go cold at the same time.
PSU is tough at home..... calling bullshit, they were 1-11 in conf., including losing to Indiana and Rutger at home.
Its strange to have a coach B team that is more concerning as the season wears on, rather than less.
Maybe we'll start clicking with consistency.
GO BLUE.
February 18th, 2019 at 1:35 PM ^
PSU is 58th in KenPom. They're a solid team despite the 1-11 B1G record. Rutgers is the worst B1G team in the conference at 85th KenPom rankings.
February 18th, 2019 at 1:46 PM ^
and rutger beat psu, at psu........ that's kinda my point.
February 18th, 2019 at 2:17 PM ^
Not really. There are no bad B1G teams this year as strange as it sounds. Rutgers is actually respectable according to KenPom. B1G is stacked from top to bottom and is the only conference not to have a team outside of top 100 rankings
February 18th, 2019 at 2:34 PM ^
you're right..... the bottom of the big ten can beat psu at home but we can't.... cuz they're tough to play at home.
February 18th, 2019 at 10:35 PM ^
PSU isn't the worst team in the B1G. Rutgers is based on KenPom. B1G is tough across the board and there is no bad team in the conference which is rare.
February 19th, 2019 at 1:31 PM ^
ken pom yourself to sleep.... the standings would beg to differ.
5-10 is a better record than 2-11, or are you a common core type?
it was fun, ciao.
February 19th, 2019 at 2:17 PM ^
Not all conference records are equal. PSU would be in top half in most P5 conference standings.
Somebody has to be last and it happens to be PSU despite the fact they're a solid team, not an awful team that you make them out to be.
February 18th, 2019 at 9:00 PM ^
People are more concerned now because they didn’t watch all the games early on. We looked fantastic against NC and Nova, but struggled against some of the lesser teams such as Western Michigan. There were plenty of warning signs about this team. Having said that, I do think the team has gotten better. We will be a dangerous team to play in the NCAA tournament.
February 18th, 2019 at 11:12 AM ^
Cassius Winston is good scorer but turnover prone. He will be trying to do too much, leading to 8 turnovers. I got Purdue losing @ Indiana tomorrow. We have to win either @ Maryland or @ Staee.
February 18th, 2019 at 11:13 AM ^
Every road game is tough but we have to beat Minnesota to show PSU was a fluke.
Most people thought MSU could absorb the Langford loss and then they lost 3 in a row. Seems like they are just now recovering. Ward is a bigger loss so who knows if they will be able to adjust or not. I sure hope not, another 3 game losing streak from them would be awesome.
Don't see how we can win the title outright because I think you need Purdue to lose 2-3 more.
Don't think we can get a 1 seed because the other contenders all have better losses. PSU was a bad loss and Duke, Tennessee, Virginia, and probably Gonzaga will be ahead of us. Of course a great run with a shared regular season and tournament B1G title would change that.
February 18th, 2019 at 11:13 AM ^
I don't see how people think Minny will be a tougher game than MSU.
MSU game probably will come down to the final 2 minutes. Them not having Ward obviously hurts them, but I've seen their offense click without him. If we can actually hit some 3s and shut down their perimeter we should win.
I also have seen a lot of misinformation about Tillman. I think he is better than what people on here are saying (one person said he just makes putbacks...?).
Prediction: 8 point win vs Minny, and 4 point win vs MSU. The MSU game will be in the 50's
February 18th, 2019 at 11:49 AM ^
We've got a turd in punch bowl.
Run along Sparty
February 18th, 2019 at 12:15 PM ^
Drop the act. You can post here as a visiting MSU fan. You'll get a better reception that way than with this fake Michigan fan shtick you're trying to pull.
February 18th, 2019 at 1:58 PM ^
Lol Ive been a lifelong Michigan fan and lived in A2 my entire life (except for my 4 years of college), and my father is a long time professor at one of the professional schools at UofM.
But I'm glad that trying to look at things objectively is considered being a sparty troll...?
Would I have a better perception if I just went with these ridiculous takes like "we'll win out, beat MSU by 10+ both times, beat Duke because they suck, and win the national title because we got to the title game last year"?
I'm just saying I think Tillman is better than what people are saying, and that it likely will still be a close game but we will win. This game is often extremely physical and played in the 50's or low 60's regardless of offensive abilities.
February 18th, 2019 at 2:07 PM ^
And if you're responding to my takes on kids on different teams, here's why I don't get s emotional as some of you:
I was a collegiate athlete, and also coached high schoolers who went on to big D1 programs. I've even coached a kid that was deciding between Michigan and OSU. These are 17 year olds making the decision where to go, and some of them just like other schools more or other coaches more. Wherever they go to school doesn't change who they are. I feel like there's some perception on here that a kid that chooses to go to MSU or OSU is inherently a bad seed or something, which largely isn't true.
Some of my best friends from college were guys that were my arch rival in high school, and I even have some friends that were my arch rival in college. Sports are just sports to me
February 18th, 2019 at 11:14 AM ^
1 & 2: I think we win out at this point unless we have a total egg-laying offensive game again or a ref show. We have to be favorites in all remaining games, Beilein teams close seasons strong, and Ward being out leave MSU vulnerable.
3: We win out, then yes. I think this team gets a 2 seed unless we steamroll through the B1G tourney again. There's a lot of reservations nationally about this team.
February 18th, 2019 at 11:22 AM ^
The keys for this team: hit yo threes and keep Teske AND Z on the court (no injuries or foul trouble). The defense is about as good as any of us will ever see at Michigan, and the offense looks like it is functioning as intended. Shots just ain't falling. Poole needs to break his bad luck streak and Matthews or Iggy cannot have an off night in either tournament.
But the defense and offensive game plan is all there and (outside of Wisconsin's foulpalooza or Penn State) it seems to be executed at a high level. If we could just make our threes, we'd be a one seed.
February 18th, 2019 at 12:38 PM ^
Poole is key. Need him to get out of his funk and hit 2 or 3 plus threes a game.
February 18th, 2019 at 11:30 AM ^
An actual "let's talk sports" thread looking ahead. I like it.
1. I don't know. I think our main personnel challenge is putting guys on the floor that are making shots.
2. 40 minutes of sheer terror. But I'm looking forward to the Simpson-Winston matchup. It will be interesting to see who Matthews guards.
3. Purdue would have to really collapse to not win at least a share. The chances of either Michigan or MSU sweeping each other are slim, and we still have tough games to play besides that.
February 18th, 2019 at 12:03 PM ^
I think Matthews will see a fair share of Winston. After watching Matthews turn Cowan off after he got two threes up on Simpson was pretty damn impressive.
February 18th, 2019 at 12:09 PM ^
Matthews on Winston, Simpson on McQuaid, maybe?
Langford is easy to make fun of, but even if he were healthy and Matthews were shutting him down, he'd be eating Matthews minutes and freeing up someone else against a not-quite-as-dominant defender.